03 Acquisition

Management of Information Systems
Prof. Dr. Christof Weinhardt – Ewa Lux
Institute of Information Systems and Marketing (IISM), Karlsruhe Service Research Institute (KSRI)
KIT – University of the federal state Baden-Württemberg

and national research institute of the Helmholtz-association www.kit.edu
economy
utilization
technology
law
Acquisition Storing Transformation Evaluation Commercialization
society
2 Management of Information Systems – Prof. Christof Weinhardt, Ewa Lux Institute of Information Systems and Marketing (IISM)
Outline of the lecture
Information, Measuring/Observation, Experiments, Forecasting,

Acquisition Simulation, Survey, Interviews
Storing Databases, SQL, Pivoting, Semantics and Ontologies
Transformation Transformation Basics, Filtering, Regression, Cluster Analysis
Evaluation Utility Analysis, AHP, Decision Rules, Information Value, Page Rank
Internet Economics, Digital Goods, Network Effects,

Marketing Standardisation Networks, Pricing, Bundeling
Simulation
Survey & Interviews
Simulation – Example 1
Crashtest Simulation
Simulation – Example 2 (Conway‘s Game of Life)
Rules
 Infinite field of squares, each square has 8 neighbors
 „Animate“ and „inanimate“ areas
 Rules for the transition from one generation to another
 Animated cell with 0 or 1 animated neighbor dies (loneliness)
 Animated cell with 2 or 3 animated neighbors survives
 Animated cell with 4 or more animated neighbors dies (overpopulation)
 Inanimate cell with exactly 3 animated neighbors will be revived (immigration)
Stable state oscillating state conductor
[Gardner 1970; wikipedia.org]
Characteristics of simulations
Simulations are representations of real processes (in a time interval)

[Banks, 1998]
Special technique to model real systems
[Gilbert & Troitzsch, 2005]
Simulations generate artificial data (history) for observation and analysis
Simulations are a method for the development of theories
improvement
theory simulation
Examples of (economic) models
Market mechanisms and the behavior of sales persons

Influences of a individual on group behavior
Social groups and dynamics
Heterogeneous agent models in economic models
Limited rationality
Innovation models and technical changes
Organization models
Political models
Advantages and disadvantages of simulations
Advantages Disadvantages
Acquisition of resources „cheap“ Development of models is difficult

Slow- or fast motion Development of simulation models
Understanding of complex and analysis is time costly
systems Difficult interpretation of results
Completeness of data Assumptions/models can be
Sensitivity analysis incorrect
Isolation of problem diagnosis Often: Imprecise use of
simulations
Identify limitations
Training
[Banks, 1998]
Development of models
System definition dependent on

input output several factors
System (e.g. number of objects)
State of a system: amount of
variables necessary to describe the
systems at a certain point in time
[Law & Kelton, 2000]
System Environment
Study of real systems is often not possible or expensive

 construction of a model as the image of a real system
 Analytical solution or simulation for analysis
Characteristics of models
Characteristics Description [Law & Kelton, 2000]
random variables change stepwise at different points in

discrete time
continuous state variables change continuously (time)
Systems without stochastic components; input

deterministic
parameters and their relation determine the result
system models with random input parameters /

stochastic components
Development of models
2. implement
conceptual simulations
System 1. develop 3. verify 5. simulate
model model
4. validate
1. Develop 2. Implement 3. Verify 4. Validate 5. Simulation &

conceptual simulation model Analysis
model
Problem Develop a Eliminate Compare results Define period and

description/ mathematical mistakes from from simulation number of
identify and simulation model implementation with existing repetitions of the
describe questions results/ simulation
Implement model in a Ensure estimations
Define suitable system correctness of Define a suitable
measurement of system Calibration of the method for the
performance Define the shape of implementation simulation model analysis
in- and output
Define borders of parameters Sensitivity
system analysis
Create a
conceptual model
Typical sequence of methods(1/2)
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Typical sequence of methods (1/2)
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Typical sequence of methods(1/2)
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Assignment of task
Theory/knowledge
Design
Simulation
Primary data
Laboratory
experiment
Field experiment
Secondar
y data
Observation
Example simulation
Example simulation
Example simulation
Example simulation
Example simulation
Example simulation
Example simulation
Example simulation
Example simulation
Example simulation
In average more than 1000 simulation run

+/- 1standard deviation
Possible sources of mistakes
„on the fly“ 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2

calculation 3 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 3 2 2 2
2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2 2
versus
Calculation with 3 3 2 3 3 2
temporary storage 3 2 3 2 3 2
2 2 2 2 2 2
3 3 2
2 3 2
2 2 2
Simulation
Surveys & interviews
Example from every day life
Example from every day life
Quantitative empirical social research
 „Empirical“ research means that the perception of reality is a
measurement that is used to evaluate whether a statement is
(temporary) accepted as „true“ or not
 „Quantitative“ research tries to determine the appearance of attributes
or characteristics by measurements (quantification).
 Example question:
„Did the satisfaction of employees of the KIT increase since its
foundation?“
Quantitative: immediately measurable e.g. via scale

Qualitative: no given answer possibilities, open form
Structured: completely given
Semi structured: possibility e.g. to ask deeper sub questions
Unstructured: e.g. open dialogue
Possibilities of information acquisition through
interviews and surveys
Types of surveys
Qualitative Quantitative
Delphi- Guide-line
Survey interview Standardised questionaire
Structured
interviews
Semistructur
ed interviews
Unstructure
d interviews
Oral Written
survey survey
Delphi-Studies
Delphi-Survey
Central idea: help with decision making- and evaluation for unique
(non repeating) cases
9 steps:
Choice of the 1 evaluation problem and suitable 2 experts
Individual 3 survey, 4 information acquisition and 5 answers of the
participants
6 Evaluation of answers (mean and variation)
7 Comments of participants in comparison to the group result
8 Distribution of results to all participants
9 Asking participants again (max. 3-5 turns)
Independent of the group size every participant is fully integrated in

the process
Lots of time needed: Ask „the right“ questions in the beginning!
Procedure for surveys
1. Sample
2.Measurement model
3. Operationalisation
4. Questionnaire
5. Collection of data
6. Evaluation [Mayer, 2008]
Identification of the sample
1. Sample Main unit and sample
Target audience
2.Measurement model
4. Questionnaire
6. Evaluation
Main unit and sample
The main unit is the full amount of individuals, cases and events on
that the predication of the research should refer to (complete count)
[Kromrey, 1995]
A sample is a reduced map of the main unit (partial count)
Types of selection:
Probability selection (selection of elements by applying fixed rules and
random processes)
Intentional selection (selection of elements by applying fixed rules but no

random processes)
Random selection (selection of elements without fixed rules)
Target group
Who exactly should be asked?  Important for type of survey.

More conservative users (book keeping staff or chairman) are less likely to
fill in a online survey.
Technology-oriented persons are more willing to fill in a online survey.
Is the target group able to answer the questions?

Filter questions lead to a path
Screen-Out of participants, that are not contributing to the survey in an
appropriate way
How many people do I need?

Depends on amount of variables
Confirmatory vs. explorative survey
Set-up of a measurement model
1. Sample Literatur
-
Definitio researc
n of h&
theoreti expert
2.Measurement model cal Dimension
discussi
terms al on
dissolution
Hypothesis
Dimensional dissolution of terms

4. Questionnaire
Allocation of determining factors (determinant
as well as the impact of the terms
5. Collection of data Measurement of dimensions with
operationalization
6. Evaluation
Set-up of measurement model
Operationalization of dimensions
1. Sample
2.Measurement model
Measurements of characteristics/ items

3. Operationalization
From theoretical term to a measure

4. Questionnaire
6. Evaluation
Dimensional analysis of a term
completely
Not at all
Theoretical Dimensions Indicators Items
term
Customer satisfaction
Satisfaction with personnel

1 2 3 4
Appearence
How polite are the shop assistents?
1 2 3 4
…
Knowledge
1 2 3 4
How good is the knowledge about the sold goods?
…
1 2 3 4
Satisfaction with offer
Quality
Variety
And so on..
Set-up of measurement model
Set-up and pretesting of questionnaires
1. Sample
Formulation of the question

2.Measurement model
Do‘s & Dont‘s
Problems and solutions
4. Questionnaire Answer possibilities
Answers with Likert-Skale

Construction of questionaire
6. Evaluation
Formulation of questions
Open questions without given answer possibilities
Advantage, if there are only few findings so far
Hard to evaluate with a lot of participants „inter-rater reliability“
Open questions with box encryption
Interviewer immediately decides on a allocation of the answer to a (given) category
Closed questions with given answer possibilities
Easy to analyze
Useful to confirm circumstances
Number of possibilities with Likert-scale: 5? 7? 9?
Offer „I do not know“ as a option?
Control questions
Avoid „Saying-Yes-Tendencies“
Avoid tendency to social desirability
Attention
Questions, that everyone would answer with yes or no
Repetition of questions
Formulating a question-Basics: Do’s
Be clear!  No possibility to ask questions!

„Don´t make me think!“
Simple formulations, e.g. ask for year of birth instead of age
No ambiguous formulations/ highly abstract terms (then it is not
recognizable anymore, what the answer relates to)
One dimensional: ALWAYS only ask for one characteristic!
(not service AND price!)
First general questions, afterwards more specific
Demographical questions at the end
Adapt language to the target group
Ask short questions
Formulation of questions-Basics: Don'ts
„Ask about the whole world“ (briefness vs. integrity)

Use double negotiations.
(„No, I do not want to reject the exception of the pension insurance obligation.“)
Suggestive questions! („Don´t you think as well that the service level is really good?“)
Stereotype formulation! (switching formulations)
Use possibly unknown terms
(Don´t use abbreviations and special terms)
Problems and solutions
Problem Solution approach

Floor- / Ceiling effect Consider „cruelty“ of the questions
Yes-/No-Saying Tendency Reverse the polarity of halve of the
items
Tendency towards the middle Even number of answer possibilities
Random answers Reverse polarity / plausible
questions
Social desirability Lying-Items/ guarantee anonymity
Control questions
The small chamber of horrors…
The small chamber of horrors…
Design of possible answers
If possible do not offer „open“ or „unequal“ types of classes

One sided or two sided?
„I do not know“, „no opinion“ and similar things
Give the middle categories?
Symmetry of possible answers
Possible answers will be „interpreted“ by participants
Repräsentative Umfragen
Number of possible answers
Examples for Likert scales
How polite are the shop assistants?
Very Neutral Not at all

1 2 3 4 5
Very good Good Satisfactory Sufficient Insufficent Unsatisfactory

1 2 3 4 5 6
Likert scale
Scale Anwendung
11 to 9 Seldom sufficient
7 or 6 Reasonable if participants have a differentiated
knowledge about the specific topic
5 Reasonable if participants have only a limited
differentiated knowledge about the specific topic
4 Used seldom , because it is quite undifferentiated
3 or 2 With question types „yes/no/I don´t know“
Even Reasonable to „force“ the participant to give a clear
answer and to avoid shifts to the middle
Uneven „Closer to reality“ because people usually do not
answer in an extreme way and falsification due to
enforced answers is not desirable
Some rules to construct a questionnaire
Introducing questions/ „Ice cup questions“
Create a „conversation atmosphere“, means structure the talk in
topics, instead of a random order
General before specific questions (funnel)
Familiar before unfamiliar
Easy before complicated.
Separate hard passages by recovery phases
Use progress bars for motivation
Easy answer due to uniform question- and answer formats
In average short editing time
Construction depends on the chosen type :oral, written, via
telephone (oral or via telephone must not be too complex to avoid
understanding problems)
System to analyze data
1. Sample
1.) •Coding data
2.Measurement model
2.) •Transfer in data file
3.) •Check for mistakes
4. Questionnaire
4.) •Processing data (variables)
5. Collection of data 5.) •Statistical analysis
6. Evaluation
Latent variables and Cronbach‘s Alpha
Theoretical Dimension Items
…
term Personality
1 2 3 4
Extraversion
I like being together with other people.
1 2 3 4
1 2 3 4
preciseness
… 1 2 3 4
[Satow, 2012]
Cronbach‘s
Alpha = 0.87
[Satow, 2012]
Correlation coefficient
Cronbach‘s Alpha is a measure for the internal consistency of a scale.
Cronbach‘s Alpha
K number of components
v average variance of all components
c average covariance between the components
Standardised
Cronbach‘s Alpha
r average correlation between components
Latent variables and Cronbach‘s Alpha example
A B C D
1 2 1 1 rAB = .7552 CovAB = .8083
3 4 4 3
rAC = .4237 CovAC = .6125
1 2 3 2
4 4 4 3 rAD = .7026 CovAD = .9292
4 3 4 3
1 2 2 2 rBC = .2916 CovBC = .3083
2 2 3 2 rBD = .5597 CovBD = .5417
3 4 2 4
4 4 1 4 rCD = .2645 CovCD = .3458
2 2 1 1
1 3 1 1
2 2 1 2 ravg = .49955 Covavg = .5910
4 3 3 4
2 2 3 3 VARavg = 1.2177
4 4 3 2
3 3 1 4
= .7904 = .7997
All Cronbach’s Alpha should be >= .70 (Nunnally and Bernstein, 1994)
Correlation vs. Causality
A B A causes B causal
X
A and B have an the same reason X
A B
A Y B The effect from A on B is mediated by Y.
A B A and B determine one and another.
A B B causes A causal
Correlation vs. Causality
Causality can never be deduced only from data!!!

Necessary (but not sufficient) requirements: experimental manipulation
(treatments), knowledge about correlations (e.g. timely order, physics,
etc.), highest possible control (e.g. placebos, …)

03 Acquisition

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03 Acquisition

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Management of Information Systems

Prof. Dr. Christof Weinhardt – Ewa Lux

KIT – University of the federal state Baden-Württemberg

Acquisition Storing Transformation Evaluation Commercialization

Information, Measuring/Observation, Experiments, Forecasting,

Storing Databases, SQL, Pivoting, Semantics and Ontologies

Transformation Transformation Basics, Filtering, Regression, Cluster Analysis

Internet Economics, Digital Goods, Network Effects,

Survey & Interviews

Stable state oscillating state conductor

[Gardner 1970; wikipedia.org]

Simulations are representations of real processes (in a time interval)

Simulations generate artificial data (history) for observation and analysis

Simulations are a method for the development of theories

Market mechanisms and the behavior of sales persons

Acquisition of resources „cheap“ Development of models is difficult

System definition dependent on

Study of real systems is often not possible or expensive

Characteristics Description [Law & Kelton, 2000]

random variables change stepwise at different points in

continuous state variables change continuously (time)

Systems without stochastic components; input

system models with random input parameters /

1. Develop 2. Implement 3. Verify 4. Validate 5. Simulation &

Problem Develop a Eliminate Compare results Define period and

In average more than 1000 simulation run

„on the fly“ 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2 3 3 2

Surveys & interviews

Quantitative: immediately measurable e.g. via scale

7 Comments of participants in comparison to the group result

8 Distribution of results to all participants

9 Asking participants again (max. 3-5 turns)

Independent of the group size every participant is fully integrated in

6. Evaluation [Mayer, 2008]

1. Sample Main unit and sample

A sample is a reduced map of the main unit (partial count)

Intentional selection (selection of elements by applying fixed rules but no

Random selection (selection of elements without fixed rules)

Who exactly should be asked?  Important for type of survey.

Is the target group able to answer the questions?

How many people do I need?

Dimensional dissolution of terms

Measurements of characteristics/ items

From theoretical term to a measure

Satisfaction with personnel

How polite are the shop assistents?

Satisfaction with offer

Formulation of the question

4. Questionnaire Answer possibilities

Answers with Likert-Skale

Be clear!  No possibility to ask questions!

„Ask about the whole world“ (briefness vs. integrity)

Problem Solution approach

If possible do not offer „open“ or „unequal“ types of classes

Number of possible answers

How polite are the shop assistants?

Very Neutral Not at all

Very good Good Satisfactory Sufficient Insufficent Unsatisfactory

1.) •Coding data

2.) •Transfer in data file

5. Collection of data 5.) •Statistical analysis

Theoretical Dimension Items

I like being together with other people.