Global Economic Prospects

January 2022

www.worldbank.org/gep
 Global Economic Prospects – January 2022

2
 Global Economic Prospects – January 2022

Underlying data and charts can be found at

www.worldbank.org/gep

3
 Global Growth Forecasts
Substantial Slowdown
GDP growth
(Percent)

4
 Regional Growth Forecasts
Slowing Growth in Several Regions
GDP growth, by region
(Percent)

5
 Uneven Global Recovery
Weak Output and Investment; Lasting Scarring
Deviation of output with pre-pandemic trends by 2023 Deviation of investment from pre-pandemic trends
(Percent) (Percent)

6
 Risks
Multiple; Possibility of Hard Landing

7
 Interconnected Risks
Higher Inflation; Tightening Financial Conditions
Inflation surprises Financing conditions
(Index, >0 = upside data surprise) (Index; January 1, 2021 = 100)

8
 Income Inequality
Increase Across and Within Countries
Change in between-country income inequality Change in Gini index, 2020
(Point change; annualized) (Points)

9
 Commodity Cycles
Dependence on Commodity Exports; Sharp Rebound in 2020; Larger Booms than Slumps
Commodity exports in EMDEs Energy prices and global recessions Amplitude of commodity cycles
(Percent of exports) (Percent change from previous year) (Percent)

10
 Lessons from Past Debt Restructurings
Elevated Debt in LICs; Past Restructurings Offered Substantial Debt Relief
Government debt in LICs Number of debtor countries included Debt relief granted
(Percent) (Number) (Percent of stock of debt)

11
 Policy Priorities
Measures to Ensure Green, Resilient, and Inclusive Growth

12
 Monetary and Fiscal Policies
Policy Tightening Underway; Space Limited
Policy rates in EMDEs Fiscal impulse in EMDEs
(Percent) (Percentage points of potential GDP)

13
 Climate Challenges
High Emissions Underscore Need for Green Transition
Change in greenhouse gas emissions Share of renewables in global energy supply
(Percent) (Percent)

14
 Global Economic Prospects
January 2022

www.worldbank.org/gep

15
 Select Publications by EFI Prospects Group

• Global Economic Prospects – January 2022

(January and June)
• Commodity Markets Outlook – October 2021
(April and October)
• Global Monthly

• One-Stop Source: Global Database of Inflation – July 2021

• Inflation During the Pandemic “What Happened? What is Next?” – July 2021

• The Aftermath of Debt Surges – September 2021

• A Mountain of Debt: Navigating the Legacy of the Pandemic – October 2021
• What Has Been the Impact of COVID-19 on Debt? Turning a Wave into a Tsunami – November 2021

16