DISASTER RISK

ASSESSMENT
The scale and complexity of a disaster affect
engineering and policy decision regarding future
disasters.
Help to identify the disaster.
Without establishing the relationship of cause-
and-effect scientifically, some precautionary can
help to reduce the human health threat.
Engineering design would be helpful by the
understanding of risk.
Engineer can assume the demanding safety
factor as well as economical issues will be
highlighted.
Identify the hazard zone and finding the suitable
place for establishing mega project (nuclear
energy, chemical industry, biological
experimental project).
As a Lewis, Risk is the function of probability
and consequences. In the medical and
environmental sciences, a consequence is called
a “hazard.
 Role of
Perception in Rafal Mitrosz

Risk
Management
 Certain terms are terrifying, such as cancer, central nervous
system dysfunction, toxins, and ominous-sounding chemical
names such as dioxin, PCBs, vinyl chloride, and methyl mercury.
What is the In fact, chemical names in general elicit anxieties and increase
perceived risk.
perception in
risk management
process For example, people typically find the word dihydromonoxide
alarming until they are told that it is H2O. Actual risks may be
much greater or much lesser than perceived risks

A failure could be classified as a disaster if engineers made a

miscalculation or left out some key information that led to a
disaster. Such mistakes may lead to the public perception that
the failure was disastrous even if it was less severe than a
failure perceived as less preventable or even inevitable.
 Theory: Chronic diseases such as cancer have long periods

What is the of separation between the first exposure to the causative

agent and the onset of disease symptoms – called - the

perception in latency period.

risk management For example - asbestos workers were exposed for decades
before signs of mesothelioma or lung cancer were
process - diagnosed.

Intutition Many factors, including insufficient study, underreporting

of exposures and diseases, and the properties of a toxic
agent, can also obscure links between cause and effect,
such as the relatively recent linkages between childhood
exposure to lead and neurological and developmental
diseases.
Assessment relies on science-based criteria such as
problem identification, data analysis, and risk
Risk perception is a crucial component of the public
characterization, including cost–benefit ratios. Perception
relies on thought processes and includes such criteria as
perception of a disaster.
intuition, personal experiences, and personal preferences.
Confrontation
of Science
Based and
Perception Risk
Decision
FAILURE
S
MEHEDI HASAN RAYHAN
 TYPE – 1:

MISCALCULATION

•Don’t correctly estimate the risks, wrong

calculation during designing
•Fail to assure & control the quality
•Wrong calculation results wrong information
TYPE – 2:

EXTRAORDINARY NATURAL
CIRCUMSTANCES

• Failure due to extraordinary natural calamities

• Equipment failure can lead to uncontrolled
disaster
• Backup system can be established
• Contingency planning & design consideration
can be the factors to be considered
TYPE – 3 :

CRITICAL PATH

• FAIL TO PREDICT RISKS IN SOME CASES.

• FOR INSTANCE, HOLY CROSS COLLEGE
FOOTBALL TEAM HEPATITIS OUTBREAK IN 1969.
• FAILED BUT THEY WERE NOT BLAMED.
TYPE – 4 :

NEGLIGENCE

• Occurrences have occurred due to own carelessness and

negligence of engineers
• Standard operating procedures(SOPs)
• Give emphasize on unexpected issues(Terror attack,
water poisoning etc)
TYPE – 5 :

INACCURATE PREDICTION OF
CONTINGENCIES

• Engineers predict the problems and design

• Erroneous prediction can have adverse
outcome
• Proper channel of information, honest and
upfront appraisal of possible
consequences