Professional Documents
Culture Documents
ROADMAP
14 November 2022
01 Why Biomethane?
02 Regulation
04 Market
05 Economics
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1. Why Biomethane?
Cepsa’s strategy is strongly committed to decarbonization in which biomethane will play a
fundamental role as it will help to comply with regulation too
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1. Renewable Energy Directive II (RED II), Fuel Quality Directive (FQD), Fit for 55 (FF55), European Union Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) | 2. SMR: Steam Methane Reforming
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2. Regulation
Still no regulatory certainty (but rapidly advancing) that certifies the potential benefits of
biomethane associated for each final use
Biomethane is valuable if it is possible to certificate its renewable origin. Two certificates are currently used in Spain:
Potential uses
Certificate Information that provides
Mobility EU ETS H2 production
1 2 2
PoS Derives from RED II, it provides information
(Proof of Sustainability) about the GHG footprint of the gas
1) MITERD in the process of accepting it and including biomethane in SICBIOS (building website already)
2) By analogy with bio-propane, Cepsa assumes that PoS could be used for EU ETS and H 2 production purposes
3) GdO does not provide information about the GHG footprint. Then, GdO will not be enough for mobility purposes
4) Cepsa is pending to perform a 1GWh test in RLR to validate with the auditor (AENOR) if GdO are enough for EU ETS/green H 2
production 4
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3. Bios Business Role
Bios has a commercial consolidation and arbitration role between business units and
external customers in order to achieve Cepsa’s strategy providing the most optimal solution
… biomethane is just part of the full bios strategy of Cepsa and it is the only unit
that has all the information (what are biofuels needs for mobility, for decarbonization…)
Why is Bios in charge of … the economic competitiveness of biomethane depends on its final use (mobility,
optimizing all the CO2 emissions reduction, green H2 production, external client) and it is the only entity
biomethane value chain? with a clear overview
Because…
… it is the one looking for biomethane business opportunities and their
development (end to end production, biogas upgrading or offtake)
…it is aware of all the different regulations that apply and may come in the future
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3. Bios Business Role
Bios has a commercial consolidation and arbitration role between business units and
external customers in order to achieve Cepsa’s strategy providing the most optimal solution
BIOS Scouting and Potentials JVs
• Scouting and potential JVs: biomethane is a very scattered market and
an active screening from Bios team is needed.
Producer
• Arbitration: Given biomethane scarcity and the economics of the different
Biomethane uses (reduce emissions, produce green H 2 or mobility) against their
Certificates/ETS alternatives (ETS cost, green H 2 premium or marginal emissions reduction
cost respectively), Bios:
CGC/CGE/
Information 1) Determines the optimal use for biomethane to maximize Cepsa’s profit
Trading
2) Proposes compensation mechanisms between business units (E.Parks /
Market intelligence
Chemicals / Mobility / CGC/CGE/Trading / Bios)
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1. Data from SEDIGAS (Asociación Española del Gas) | 2. SEDIGAS production estimation for 2030 is more ambitious than MITERD one (38 TWh/y vs 10.4 TWh/y)
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5. Economics – Opportunities (1/6)
There are three ways to enter the market implying different costs. Generally, equivalent
biomethane production costs could range from 40 to 60 €/MWh
Equivalent
Opportunity CAPEX1 OPEX
How Pros Cons De-risking biomethane cost3
type (M€) (€/MWh)
(€/MWh)
~3 €/kg H2 to be competitive
Premium of H2 production in
Green H2 production electrolyzer. 75 €/MWh - TTF €/MWh
Biomethane total price needs in the range
of 65-75 €/MWh
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5. Economics – Flow Overview (3/6)
No feedstock required
Spread
Biogas Margin
Raw feedstock
Generation Market
2 Biomethane obtainment as a final
Selling Market
Offtake (1) ETS product
1 2 3 4
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5. Economics – Internal Fuel Consumption Use (4/6)
Biomethane premium competes against the CO2 emissions rights cost when used for internal
fuel consumption
60
• At current ETS CO2 cost: ~80 €/t CO2 (expected to increase in
Biomethane Premium vs TTF (€/MWh)
50
coming years)
40 • The maximum premium that Cepsa should pay for biomethane to
be economically competitive is ~15€/MWh
30
• Economics for Cepsa:
20
15
• With TTF price ~40 €/MWh, Cepsa would make money while
10 purchasing biomethane under 55 €/MWh
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300
80
ETS CO2 rights equivalent cost (€/t CO2)
Conclusion: with TTF prices ~40 €/MWh (2027+ premise as per PP8), to develop biomethane projects (end to end and/or
upgrading biogas plants) might not be an optimal solution to offset carbon emissions as it would be more profitable to continue
buying ETS CO2 rights. Higher ETS CO2 cost would make this option more attractive.
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5. Economics – Mobility Use (5/6)
Biomethane premium competes against the marginal CO2 emissions cost of biofuels to comply
with FQD when used for mobility (bio-CNG/bio-LNG)
Biomethane premium vs TTF (€/MWh)
140
120 • Current marginal CO2 emission cost of biofuels to comply with FQD:
100
~300 €/t CO2
89
80 • The maximum premium that Cepsa should pay for biomethane to
be economically competitive is ~89€/MWh
60
• Economics for Cepsa:
40
• With TTF price ~40 €/MWh, Cepsa would make money while
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purchasing biomethane under 129 €/MWh
300
0
0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 400 450 500
Marginal CO2 emissions cost to comply with FQD (€/tCO2)
Conclusion: even in low TTF price scenarios, biomethane is very profitable when used for mobility purposes as gas cost is fully
paid by the emissions reduction that would help to comply with FQD.
If somehow to comply with RED II directive becomes more restrictive (i.e.: UERs are accepted to comply with FQD), Cepsa
could use biomethane to generate certificates being that option very profitable too. If Cepsa has not been buying biomethane to
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Cepsa ǀ Título de Presentación
generate ǀ Fecha
certificates is because regulation still pending (MITERD has not included biomethane in SICBIOS yet).
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5. Economics – Green Hydrogen Production Use (6/6)
Biomethane premium competes against green hydrogen premium when producing it by
electrolysis (total cost of ~ 3 €/kg H2)
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Biomethane Premium vs TTF (€/MWh)
Conclusion: as per Hydrogen business, biomethane to produce green H 2 in steam reformers would be profitable when bought
under 75 €/MWh. However, if TTF prices or market biomethane premiums raise, biomethane could become not competitive
against the electrolytic green H2 (it would depend on electricity costs).
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6. Roadmap & Economics
Cepsa needs to create a balanced portfolio mix to achieve the targets set and become a
key player in biomethane market
Short term (end-2022 and 2023)
Cepsa's Biomethane needs • 1GWh test to understand regulation (GdO,
PoS acceptance)
4,500
• Close offtakes deals for 2023 and 2024
3,750
start-ups
GWh/y
Premises: Results:
• TTF price (PP8 premise): 50 €/MWh 2026, 40 €/MWh 2027+ NPV@10% (M€) vs Biomethane Premium over TTF (€/MWh)
• Carbon cost (PP8 premise): 98 €/tCO2 2026, 130 €/tCO2 2030 400
300
• Marginal CO2 cost to comply with FQD (PP8 premise): >300 €/t CO 2 200
100
• Biomethane maximum price for H2 business: 75 €/MWh
NPV@10% (M€)
0
-100
-200
• Biomethane premium over TTF: range from 20-60 €/MWh -300
-400
-500
• End-to-End Opportunity: -600
20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
• CAPEX1=14 M€ / OPEX=35€/MWh
• Biogas Upgrading Opportunity:
• CAPEX1=3.5 M€ / OPEX=52 €/MWh
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Cepsa 1.ǀ Considering
Título85de Presentación
GWh/y plants ǀ Fecha 15
6. Roadmap & Economics - Conclusions
Biomethane total economics (biomethane business + cost of opportunity captured depending
on its final use) varies highly depending on the premium considered above TTF price.
Conclusions: Results:
• Assuming previously mentioned premises (PP8 mainly): NPV@10% (M€) vs Biomethane Premium over TTF (€/MWh)
• Biomethane business would be profitable if 400
premium is above 24€/MWh 300
200
• Biomethane for Internal fuel consumption 100
uses would be profitable against its alternative
NPV@10% (M€)
0
only whenever premium is under 23€/MWh. -100
-200
• Biomethane for Mobility use would be always -300
profitable against its alternative unless premium -400
reach values above 90 €/MWh -500
-600
• Biomethane for Green H2 production would be 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60
profitable against its alternative whenever
premium is less than 35 €/MWh
• Biomethane total economics (sum of the
previous effects) would be profitable if premium
is under 33€/MWh
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6. Roadmap & Economics - Sensitivities
Biomethane total economics varies highly depending on: TTF price, biomethane premium and
carbon cost. Sensitivities have been performed to see the different impacts.
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7. Key Takeaways & Questions
Key Takeaways:
• Biomethane is a must to decarbonize and reach 2030 Cepsa’s goals.
• Biomethane business (projects development, not just offtake agreements) will offset partially the total impact of
decarbonization
Questions:
• Is the Bios role correctly defined?
• Could Bios start closing deals for 2023 onwards?
• No CAPEX has been finally included in PP8 for biomethane. However, to provide enough biomethane to cover
Cepsa’s demand (assuming 50% of biomethane consumed is produced in Cepsa facilities), ~200 M€ are needed in
2023-2030 period.
Question: Who will be the owner of the plants? (Cepsa? CCP? U.Bios?)
• Bios needs a biomethane withdrawal commitment signed by E.Parks, C&CE (Bios, H2, BioOils), Chemicals and
Mobility
• Offtake contracts duration is 10 years, most of contracts would be above 35 M€. Will they all need BoD approval? 18
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Backup
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Back-up 1 – Total Opportunities Identified
GWh/y GWh/y
Opportunity Type Probability 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Opportunity Type Probability 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030
Montes de Toledo (manure) Offt ake 70% 4 45 45 45 45 45 45 45 Zurgena (Almería) Offt ake 20% 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Aborgase (Abonos Orgánicos de Sevilla) Offt ake 70% 24 48 96 144 144 144 144 144 Antequera (Enagás) Offt ake 50% 65 65 65 65 65 65 65 65
La Galera Offt ake 30% 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 La Almunia de doña godina Offt ake 50% 0 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
FCC Biogas Upgrading 30% 40 80 120 146 146 146 146 146 Biovo (Granollers y consorcio besós tordera)
Offt ake 50% 11 21 21 21 21 21 21 21
PreZero Tenerife Landfill Biogas Upgrading 80% 0 0 60 90 90 90 90 90 Jabalquinto (Jaén) enagás, genia y valora Offt ake 50% 0 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
PreZero Alicante Landfill Offt ake 80% 0 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Can Mata (Waga, Naturgy y Ferrovial) Offt ake 10% 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 70
PreZero Toledo Landfill Offt ake 80% 0 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 Cabezón de pisuerga (Somacly) Biogas Upgrading 50% 0 8 8 8 8 8 8 8
Urbaser Bilbao Offt ake 50% 0 12 17 22 26 30 32 34 Albacete green energy (Naturgy) Offt ake 20% 34 34 34 34 34 34 34 34
Beconsa Biogas Upgrading 75% 0 0 64 64 64 64 64 64 Vilademuls (Girona) Biogas Upgrading 30% 0 9 9 9 9 9 9 9
PreZero Gran Canaria Landfill Biogas Upgrading 80% 0 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 vall d'uxó (inderen) Biogas Upgrading 20% 0 23 23 23 23 23 23 23
JV w/ Bio-oils E2E 10% 0 0 170 170 170 170 170 170 Galivi Solar (Lorca) Offt ake 70% 22 27 27 27 27 27 27 27
Enagas Los Santos de Maimona (Badajoz) Offt ake 50% 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 51 Llutxent (BioGNL) Offt ake 70% 10 30 30 30 30 30 30 30
Enagas Villanueva de la serena (Badajoz) Offt ake 50% 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 41 Villacastín (Segovia) Offt ake 50% 0 0 48 48 48 48 48 48
Cabanillas (Navarra) Offt ake 10% 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 Olmedo (Valladolid) Offt ake 50% 0 0 64 64 64 64 64 64
Biogastur Biogas Upgrading 0% 0 70 70 70 70 70 70 70 Almansa Biogas Upgrading 10% 40 60 60 60 60 60 60 60
Biolvegas (Soria) Offt ake 30% 25 38 38 38 38 38 38 38 Garraf landfill (TERSA) Barcelona Biogas Upgrading 30% 40 40 40 40 40 40 40 40
Lliria FORSU Offt ake 50% 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 60 Riazor (agroamb lugo) Biogas Upgrading 30% 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
Vencillon (Huesca) Enagás Offt ake 50% 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 92 AXPO Trading 50% 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
Picassent Biogas Upgrading 30% 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 54 OTC FLOW Trading 100% 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
Albufera de Valencia (Naturgy, Enagás) Offt ake 10% 50 87 87 87 87 87 87 87 PAVILION Trading 100% 50 250 250 250 250 250 250 250
Meirama (Lugo) (Repsol, Reganosa Naturgy)Offt ake 0% 0 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 STX Trading 100% 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
La Calahorra (Granada) Offt ake 10% 10 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 OLYX Trading 100% 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
Edar Arazuri (Pamplona) Offt ake 20% 0 40 70 70 70 70 70 70 ENGIE (trading) Trading 50% 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300
Serós (LLeida) Offt ake 10% 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 300 Landwäerme (trading) Trading 100% 150 150 150 150 150 150 150 150
Godall1 Offt ake 20% 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 WAGA Offt ake 50% 80 80 80 80 80 80 80 80
Godall 2 Offt ake 20% 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 50 TOTAL 2,533 3,685 4,214 4,323 4,327 4,331 4,333 4,335
Campillos (Málaga) Offt ake 20% 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20
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Back-up 3 – Support schemes in place per country
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Back-up 4 – Competitive Landscape
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