Adama Science and Technology University

School of Civil and Architectural Engineering

Department Of Civil Engineering

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 CEN 5316 - CONSTRUCTION PLANNING & MANAGEMENT
Chapter V: Management and Planning Techniques
2

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 Introduction
3

Project Management Activities

 Planning  Scheduling
Objectives Project activities
Resources Start & end times
Work break-down Network
structure
Organizational
break-down
structure
 Controlling
Monitor, compare, revise, action 01/22/23
 Introduction Time/cost estimates
Budgets
4 Engineering diagrams
Cash flow charts
Materialavailability
details

Budgets
Delayed activities report
Slack activities report

CPM/PERT
Gantt charts
Milestone charts
Cash flow schedules

Figure 3.1
Before Start of project During
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project Timeline project
Project Planning

Planning is sets a clear road map that should be followed to

reach a destination.

Used at different levels to mean different things.

It involves the breakdown of the project into definable,

measurable, and identifiable tasks/activities,

Then establishes the logical interdependences among

them.
 Project Planning
8

The above plans are different from each other; however, all
these plans involve four main steps:
 Performing breakdown of work items involved in the project into
activities.
 Identifying the proper sequence by which the activities should
be executed.
 Activities representation.
 Estimating the resources, time, and cost of individual activities
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10

Project Planning Steps:

1. Checklist to develop a project plan:

 Define the scope of work, method statement, and sequence of work.
 Generate the work breakdown structure (WBS) to produce a
complete list of activities.
 Develop the organization breakdown structure (OBS) and
link it with work breakdown structure to identify
responsibilities.
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 Project Planning
11

Planning steps cont’d

 Determine the relationship between activities.
 Estimate activities time duration, cost expenditure, and
resource requirement.
 Develop the project network.

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12

Planning Steps:

2. Work Breakdown Structures [WBS]

 WBS is a hierarchical structure which is designed to
logically sub-divide all the work-elements of the project into
a graphical presentation.
 The full scope of work for the project is placed at the
top of the diagram, and then sub-divided smaller
elements of work at each lower level of the breakdown.
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14

WBS: Level

1. Project

2. Major tasks in the project

3. Subtasks in the major responsibilities

4. Activities [or work packages] to be completed

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15

WBS and their description

Level 1

As shown in Figure above, level 1 represents the full scope of

work for the house.
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 Project Planning
18

Accordingly, a complete WBS for the warehouse project

can be shown as follow:

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3. WBS and organizational breakdown structure (OBS)

 WBS elements at various levels can be related to the
contractor’s organizational breakdown structure (OBS)
 OBS defines the different responsibility levels and
their appropriate reporting needs.
 The figure below, also, shows that work packages are
coupled to the company unified code of accounts.

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20

A sample Project organization

President

Human Quality
Resources Marketing Finance Design Production
Mgt

Project 1 Project
Manager
Mechanical Test
Technician
Engineer Engineer

Project 2 Project
Manager
Electrical Computer
Technician
Engineer Engineer

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 Project Planning
21

Project Organization
Marketing Operations Engineering Finance

Project 1

Project 2

Project 3

Project 4
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 Project Planning
22

Planning Steps:

4. Project Activities
 An activity is defined as any function or decision in the
project that: consumes time, resources, and cost.
 Activities are classified to three types:

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23

a. Production activities: activities that involve the use of

resources such as labor, equipment, material, or subcontractor.

This type of activities can be easily identified by reading the

project’s drawings and specifications.

Examples: excavation, formwork, reinforcement, concreting etc

Each production activity can have a certain quantity of work,

resource needs, costs, and duration.
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b. Procurement activities: activities that specify the time for

procuring materials or equipment that are needed for a
production activity.
 Examples are: brick procurement, cement
manufacturing and delivery, etc.

c. Management activities: activities that are related to

management decisions such as approvals, vacations, etc.

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Planning Steps:

5. Activities Relationships

To identify the relationships among activities, it needs to answer

the following questions for each activity in the project:

a. Which activities must be finished before the current one can

start?
b. What activity(ies) may be constructed parallel with the current
one?
c. What activity(ies) must follow the current one?
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A circle of activity precedence will result in an impossible plan.

For example, if activity A precedes activity B, activity B

precedes activity C, and activity C precedes activity A, then the
project can never be started or completed.

Example of a circle of activity precedence

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Example: Suppose that a site preparation and concrete slab

foundation construction project consists of nine different
activities:

A. Site clearing (of brush and minor debris),

B. Removal of trees,

C. General excavation,

D. Grading general area,

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Cont’d

E. Excavation for utility trenches,

F. Placing formwork and reinforcement for concrete,

G. Installing sewer lines,

H. Installing other utilities,

I. Pouring concrete.

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Precedence relations for above example

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Logical relationship considering resource constraints

For efficient use of resources or in case of constrained

resources, it might be beneficial to consider the resources
when determining the logical relationship among the activities
that use the same resources.

Consider provision of form work for concrete.

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Overlap or lag
 Overlap between activities (negative lag) is defined as how
much a particular activity must be completed before a succeeding
activity may start.

 The absence of overlap means that the first activity must

finish before the second may start.

A negative overlap means a delay is required between the

two activities .
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Types of activities relationships

Four types of relationships among activities

Typically, relationships are defined from the predecessor to

the successor activity.

a) Finish to start (FS): The successor activity can begin

only when the current activity completes.

b) Finish to finish (FF): The finish of the successor activity

depends on the finish of the current activity.01/22/23
 Project Planning
35

Cont’d

c) Start to start (SS). The start of the successor activity depends

on the start of the current activity.

d) Start to finish (SF). The successor activity cannot finish until

the current activity starts.

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Types of relationships
Finish to Start Finish to
Finish

Start to Start Start to Finish

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Planning Steps: Drawing Project Network

 A network is a graphical representation of the project activities and
their relationships.

 A project network is a set of arrows and nodes.

 Before drawing the network, it is necessary to ensure that
the project has a unified starting and ending point.
 The need for this start activity arises when there is more
than one activity in the project that has no predecessors.
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Project Network Cont’d

The end activity is needed when there is more than one

activity that has no successors.

Two ways to draw a network diagram for a project:

1. Activity on Arrow (AOA) representation.

2. Activity on Node (AON) representation

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Activity on Arrow network (AOA)

 Here the arrows represent activities while the nodes represent
the start and the end of an activity (i.e. events).
 The length of the arrow connecting the nodes has no
significance and may be straight, curved, or bent.
 When one activity depends upon another, both appear on
the diagram as two arrows having a common node.

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Basic patterns of AOA diagrams

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Rule in AOA network diagram

 Each activity must have a unique i – j numbers, where i (the number at
the tail of the arrow) is smaller than j (the number at the head of the
arrow).

 It is recommended to have a gap between numbers (i.e., 5, 10,

15, etc.) [for accommodation of missed activities].
 Avoid back arrows.

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 Dummy Activity: When more than one arrow leave the same
node and arrive at another node, dummy activities must be
used.
 It is an activity with zero duration, consumes no resources,
drawn as dashed lines, and used to adjust the network diagram.
 It is also used when one activity depends upon two preceding
activities and another activity depends only upon one of these
two preceding activities as shown below.
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Use of dummy activities

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Activity on node network (AON)

 It is also called the precedence diagram method [PDM].

 Here the nodes represent activities and the arrows represent

logical relationships among the activities.
 If the arrow starts from the end side of an activity (activity A)
and ends at the start side of another activity (activity B),
then A is a predecessor of B (Successor of A).

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AON representation allows the overlap or lag representation

on the relationship arrows connecting activities.

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A Comparison of AON and AOA Network Conventions

Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

(a) A B C A comes before B,

which comes before A B C
C
A A
A and B must both be
(b) C completed before C
can start C
B B
B
(c) A B and C cannot begin B
until A is completed A
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C C
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47

AON and AOA Comparison Cont’d

Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

A C A C
C and D cannot begin
(d) until A and B have
both been completed
B D B D
C cannot begin until
A C both A and B are A C
(e) completed; D cannot Dummy activity
begin until B is
B D completed. A dummy
activity is introduced in B D
AOA 01/22/23
 Project Planning
48

AON and AOA Comparison Cont’d

Activity on Activity Activity on
Node (AON) Meaning Arrow (AOA)

B and C cannot begin

A B D until A is completed. A B D
(f) D cannot begin until
Dummy C
C both B and C are activity
completed. A dummy
activity is again
introduced in AOA. 01/22/23
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Summary Comparison of AON and AOA

Similarity: Both networks can be used to represent a

project network.

Difference:

There is no need for the use of dummy activities in AON

representation.

AON are more easily to draw and to read.

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Summary Cont’d

In AOA, an activity can only start when all its predecessors

have finished.

AON allows for overlap/lag representation.

AON allows for the representation of the four types of

relationships while AOA allows only for the finish to start
relationship.
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Example: Construct an AOA and AON networks for the

activities.

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Solution: A. AOA Network:- Forming an AOA network

for this set of activities might begin be drawing activities A,
B and C as shown below.

At this point, we note that two activities (A and B) lie

between the same two event nodes; for clarity, we
insert a dummy activity X and continue to place other
activities.

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Placing activity G in the figure presents a problem,

however, since we wish both activity D and activity
E to be predecessors.

Inserting an additional dummy activity Y along with

activity G completes the activity network, as shown
below.

AOA Network Diagram

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B. AON Network:-

This is done by placing the activities in a sequence step order.

A sequence step [SS] may be defined as the earliest logical

position in the network that an activity can occupy while
maintaining the logical relationships.

After all sequence step numbers have been assigned, the

AON diagram can be drawn
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Determining the sequence steps

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Project Planning

AON representation is shown below, including project start

and finish nodes.

Note that dummy activities are not required for expressing

precedence relationships in activity-on-node [AON] networks.
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57

Planning Steps: Estimating Activity Duration and Direct

Cost

A. Activity Duration: Having defined the work activities, each

activity has associated time duration.

These durations are used in preparing a schedule.

Activity duration is the amount of time assinged to complete a

particular activity.

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Durations and predecessors for a four-activity project

Schedules use only whole members. With new construction or

renevation, workdays are typically used as the time unit.

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 STOP!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
59

Duration Cont’d

However, in fast moving facilities, maintenance work hours or

even minutes may be a more appropriate time .

Durations can be figured in a number of ways:

1. Duration can be determined by examining past similar projects.

Many projects use the same activities over and over, so by
maintaning good records managers can predict durations
accurately.
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Duration Cont’d

It also defines a man-hour unit.

The time it takes for one worker to complete one unit.

This information can be used to establish durations, particularly

when the scheduler has little past project experience

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Project Planning

Activity Duration:

Activity duration = Quantity of work / Number of crews x

Daily crew [resource] output

Having defined an activity duration, it means that the

planner have already defined the number of resources that
will be employed in a particular activity.

Knowing activity duration and resources employed, it is

simple to estimate the activity direct cost.
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63

Example: If the daily production rate for a crew that works in

an activity is 175 units/day and the total crew cost per day is
1800 birr. The material needed for daily work is 4.5 units at 100
birr/unit.

A. Calculate the time and cost it takes the crew to finish 1400 units

B. Calculate the total unit cost. Consider an eight hour work day.

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Solution

[a]. Duration (units of time) = Quantity / Production per unit of time x

number of crews = 1400 / 175 x 1 = 8 days

Cost (labor cost) = Duration (units of time) x crew cost per unit of
time = 8 days x 1800 birr / day =14400 birr

Total direct cost =14,400 birr + 4.5 units of material x 100 birr /
day x 8 days = 18,000 birr

[b]. Unit cost = Total cost / Quantity = 18,000 birr / 1400 = 12.86 birr /
unit 01/22/23
 Project Scheduling
65

How long the total project duration is?

Evaluate the early and late times at which activities start

and finish.

Identify the group of critical activities so that special care is

taken to make sure they are not delayed.

All these statements are the basic objectives of the scheduling

process,

Scheduling = Planning + Time. 01/22/23

 Project Scheduling
66

Scheduling is the determination of the timing of the

activities comprising the project to enable managers to
execute the project in a timely manner.

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67

Purpose:

Knowing the activities timing and the project completion time.

Having resources available on site in the correct time.

Making correction actions if schedule shows that the plan

will result in late completion.

Assessing the value of penalties on project late completion.

Determining the project cash flow.

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 Project Scheduling [Critical Path
Analysis]
69

Basic Concepts and Formula

1. Frameworks of PERT/CPM

The PERT and CPM models are extremely useful for the
purpose of planning, scheduling and controlling the
progress and completion of large and complex projects

They are useful for carrying out the analysis of these three
managerial functions.

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70

Cont’d

A network is a graphical representation of a project,

representing the flow as well as the sequence of well-defined
activities and events.

Both CPM (Critical Path Method) and PERT [Programme

Evaluation and Review Technique] are network techniques/
models.

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2. Network : It is, then, a graphical representation of a project

plan, showing the inter-relation- ship of the various
activities.

Networks are also called arrow diagrams.

When the results of time estimates and computations have

been added to a network, it may be used as a project
schedule.

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3. Steps in PERT/CPM Model: PERT/CPM model building

consists of following five steps:

a. Analyze and break down the project in terms of specific

activities and/ or events.

b. Determine the interdependence and sequence of specific

activities and prepare a net- work.

c. Assign estimates of time, cost or both to all the activities of the

network. 01/22/23
 Project Scheduling
73

Cont’d
d. Identify the longest or critical path through the network.

e. Monitor, evaluate and control the progress of the project by re-

planning, rescheduling and reassignment of resources.

4. Critical Path: The longest path is the critical path because it

equals the minimum time required to complete the project.
Al other paths other than the critical path (i.e. non-critical or
slack paths) offer flexibility in scheduling and transferring
resources, because they take less time to complete than the
critical path. 01/22/23
 Project Scheduling
74

5. Activity : An activity is a distinct operation or an element of a

project which consumes time or resources and has a definable
beginning and ending.
Commonly used terms synonymous with "activity" are "task" and
"job".
6. principles Adopted In Drawing Networks

There are two conventions/principles normally adopted while

drawing networks: [a] Time flows from left to right and [b] Head
events always have a number higher than that of the tail events.
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75

7. Graphical Representation of Events and Activities

Events are represented by numbers within circles.

Activities are represented by arrows; the arrow-heads

represent the completion of the activities.

The length and orientation of the arrow are of no significance.

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77

9. Logical Sequencing and Connection of Activities

A project entails several activities. The arrows are arranged to
show the plan of logical sequence in which the activities of the
project are to be accomplished.

Sequence is ascertained for each activity by three queries viz:

a. Which activity or activities must be completed before the start of
a particular activity?
b. Which activity or activities should follow this?
c. Which activities can be accomplished simultaneously?
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10. Errors in logical sequencing

Two types of errors in logic may arise while drawing a network,

particularly when it is a complicated one. These are known as
looping/rounding and dangling/suspending/dropping.
11. Dummy activity

It is a hypothetical activity which consumes no resource and time. It

is represented by dotted lines and is inserted in the network to clarify
activity pattern under the following situations:

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 Stop regular

79

Cont’d

a. It is created to make activities with common starting and

finishing events distinguishable.

b. to identify and maintain the proper precedence relationship

between activities that are not connected by events.

c. to bring all "loose ends" to a single initial and a single

terminal event in each network using dummies, if necessary.

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Definition of Important Terms

A. Forward pass:
pass The process of navigating through a network
from start to end and calculating the completion date for the
project and the early dates for each activity.
 Early dates:
dates The early start date and early finish date of an
activity under the following situations:

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81

1. Early finish (EF): The earliest date on which an activity can

finish within project constraints.
2. Early start (ES): The earliest date on which an activity can
start within project constraints.

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82

B. Backward pass:
pass The process of navigating through a
network from end to start and calculating the late dates for
each activity.
The late dates (along with the early dates) determine the
critical activities, the critical path, and the amount of float
each activity has.

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83

 Late dates: The late start date and late finish date of the
following activity:
1. Late finish (LF): The latest date on which an activity can
finish without extending the project duration.
2. Late start (LS): The latest date on which an activity can
start without extending the project duration.

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 Project Scheduling
84

The Critical Path

Method (CPM)

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]
87

What is CPM?

The Critical Path Method or Critical Path Analysis, is a

mathematically based algorithm for scheduling a set of project
activities

… It is an important tool for effective project management …

Commonly used with all forms of projects, including
construction, software development, research projects, product
development, engineering, and plant maintenance, among others
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 Project Scheduling [CPM]
88

Cont’d
 Any project with interdependent activities can apply this method of
scheduling.
 The essential technique for using CPM is to construct a model of the
project that includes the following:

a. †A list of all activities required to complete the project (also

known as Work Breakdown Structure)

b. The time (duration) that each activity will take to completion

c. The dependencies between the activities. 01/22/23

 Project Scheduling [CPM]
89

Cont….
The CPM formally identifies tasks which must be completed on
time for the whole project to be completed on time.

Identifies which tasks can be delayed for a while if resource

needs to be reallocated to catch up on missed tasks.

It helps you to identify the minimum length of time needed to

complete a project.
The CPM determines both the early start and the late start date
for each activity in the schedule. 01/22/23
 Project Scheduling [CPM]
90

The CPM is a systematic scheduling method for a project

network and involves four main steps:

1. A forward path to determine activities early-start times;

2. A backward path to determine activities late-finish times;

3. Float calculations; and

4. Identifying critical activities.

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91

Calculations for the Critical Path Method

The inputs to network scheduling of any project are

simply the AOA or the AON networks with the individual
activity duration defined.

The network scheduling process for AOA and AON

networks, however, is different.

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92

AON Example

Immediate
Activity Description Predecessors
A Build internal components —
B Modify roof and floor —
C Construct collection stack A
D Pour concrete and install frame A, B
E Build high-temperature burner C
F Install pollution control system C
G Install air pollution device D, E
H Inspect and test 01/22/23
F, G
 Project Scheduling [CPM]
93

AON Network

Activity A
A (Build Internal Components)

Start

B Activity B
(Modify Roof and Floor)

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AON Network
activity A precedes activity C

A C

Start

B D

activities A and B
precede activity D
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95

AOM Network
F
A C

E
Start H

B D G

Arrows Show Precedence

Relationships
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96

AOA Network
C
2 4
(Construct
Stack) F
Co (Ins
ts l
e n na

nt tal
Co uild A

(Build Burner)
on ter
)

ro l
m p In

ls)
Dummy H
7
E
1 6
(B

Activity (Inspect/
B Test)
Ro (Mo G ll
of di a
s tion
t
/F f y n
) loo (I llu ce)
i
r 3 D 5 Po ev
D
(Pour
Concrete/ 01/22/23
Install Frame)
 Project Scheduling [CPM]
97

Determining the project schedule

Perform a Critical Path Analysis

The critical path is the longest path through the network

The critical path is the shortest time in which the project can be
completed

Any delay in critical path activities delays the project

Critical path activities have no slack time

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 Project Scheduling [CPM]
98

Perform a Critical Path Analysis

Activity Description Time (weeks)
A Build internal components 2
B Modify roof and floor 3
C Construct collection stack 2
D Pour concrete and install frame 4
E Build high-temperature burner 4
F Install pollution control system 3
G Install air pollution device 5
H Inspect and test 2
Total Time (weeks) 01/22/23 25
 Project Scheduling [CPM]
99

Perform a Critical Path Analysis

Earliest start (ES) = earliest time at which an activity can

start, assuming all predecessors
Activity Description have
Time (weeks)
A Buildbeen completed
internal components 2
B
Earliest finish Modify
(EF) roof and
= earliest floor
time at which an activity 3can be
C Construct collection stack
finished 2
D Pour concrete and install frame 4
Latest start (LS) = latest time at which an activity can start
E Build high-temperature burner 4
so as to not delay the completion time of
F Install pollution control system 3
the entire project
G Install air pollution device 5
Latest finish
H (LF) = latest
Inspect andtime
test by which an activity has
2 to be
Total finished so as to not delay the completion
Time (weeks) 25
time of the entire project01/22/23
 Project Scheduling [CPM]
100

Perform a Critical Path Analysis

Activity Name or
Symbol
A Earliest
Earliest ES EF
Start Finish

Latest LS LF Latest
Start 2 Finish

Activity Duration
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Forward Pass: Begin at starting event and work forward

Earliest Start Time Rule:

If an activity has only one immediate predecessor, its ES

equals the EF of the predecessor

If an activity has multiple immediate predecessors, its ES is

the maximum of all the EF values of its predecessors

ES = Max (EF of all immediate predecessors)

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102

Forward Pass Cont’d

Earliest Finish Rime Rule:

The earliest finish time (EF) of an activity is the sum of its

earliest start time (ES) and its activity time

EF = ES + Activity time

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ES/EF Network:
ES EF = ES + Activity time
Start
0 0

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ES/EF Network: EF of A =
ES ES of A + 2
of A
A
0 2
Start
0 0

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ES/EF Network:
A
0 2
EF of B =
2 ES ES of B + 3
of B
0
Start
0 B
0 3
0

3
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ES/EF Network:
A C
0 2 2 4

2 2

0
Start
0 = Max (2, 3) D
0
3
B
0 3

3 4
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ES/EF
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5

01/22/23
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108

Backward Pass: Begin with the last event and work backwards

Latest Finish Time Rule:

If an activity is an immediate predecessor for just a single

activity, its LF equals the LS of the activity that immediately
follows it

If an activity is an immediate predecessor to more than one

activity, its LF is the minimum of all LS values of all activities
that immediately follow it 01/22/23
LF = Min (LS of all immediate following activities)
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Latest Finish Time

Rule:
The latest start time (LS) of an activity is the difference of
its latest finish time (LF) and its activity time
LS = LF – Activity time

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LE/EF
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0
LF =4 Min(LS
8 of 13 15
following activity) 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

3 4 5

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LF = Min(4, 10)

LF/EF
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
8 13
3 4 5

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LF/EF
A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 4 10 13
2 2 3

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 8 13 15
0 4 2

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13
1 4 4 8 8 13
3 4 5

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Computing Slack Time

After computing the ES, EF, LS, and LF times for all
activities, compute the slack or free time for each activity

Slack is the length of time an activity can be delayed without

delaying the complete project

Slack = LS – ES or Slack = LF – EF

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Computing Slack Time

Earliest Earliest Latest Latest On
Start Finish Start Finish Slack Critical
Activity ES EF LS LF LS – ES Path
A 0 2 0 2 0 Yes
B 0 3 1 4 1 No
C 2 4 2 4 0 Yes
D 3 7 4 8 1 No
E 4 8 4 8 0 Yes
F 4 7 10 13 6 No
G 8 13 8 13 0 Yes
H 13 15 13 15 0 Yes

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A C F
0 2 2 4 4 7

0 2 2 2 2 4 10 3 13

Start E H
0 0 4 8 13 15

0 0 4 4 8 13 2 15
0

B D G
0 3 3 7 8 13

1 3 4 4 4 8 8 5 13

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ES – EF Gantt Chart
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
A Build internal
components
B Modify roof and floor
C Construct collection
stack
D Pour concrete and
install frame
E Build high-temperature
burner
F Install pollution control
system
G Install air pollution
01/22/23
device
 Project Scheduling [CPM]
117

Exercise: Draw the logic network and perform the CPM

calculations for the schedule shown next.
Activity IPA Duration
A - 5
B A 8
C A 6
D B 9
E B,C 6
F C 3
G D,E,F 1 01/22/23
 Project Scheduling [CPM]
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Types of Float

There are several types of float. The simplest and most

important type of float is Total Float (TF).

Total float (TF): The maximum amount of time an activity

can be delayed from its early start without delaying the entire
project.

TF = LS – ES OR TF = LF - EF OR TF = LF - Dur -
ES 01/22/23
 Project Scheduling [CPM]
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Free Float: may be defined as the maximum amount of time

an activity can be delayed without delaying the early start of
the succeeding activities

FFi = min(ESi+1) - EFi

where min (ESi+1) means the least (i.e., earliest) of the early
start dates of succeeding activities

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In the previous example we can find the free float and total
float for each activity as the following :

Activity C’s free float, FF = 11 - 11 = 0 days

Activity C’s total float, TF =16 - 11= 5 days …… and so on.

 Note : We must always realize that FF ≤ TF

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Activity Duratio ES EF LS LF TF FF
n
A 5 0 5 0 5 0 0
B 8 5 13 5 13 0 0
C 6 5 11 10 16 5 0
D 9 13 22 13 22 0 0
E 6 13 19 16 22 3 3
F 3 11 14 19 22 8 8
G 1 22 23 22 23 0 0

A, B, D and G are critical activities [Because, their TF is

Zero] 01/22/23
 Project scheduling [CPM]
122

Interfering float: may be defined as the maximum amount of

time an activity can be delayed without delaying the entire
project but causing delay to the succeeding activities.

Int. F = TF – FF

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 Project scheduling [CPM] (stop)
123

Independent float (Ind. F): we may define it as the

maximum amount of time an activity can be delayed without
delaying the early start of the succeeding activities and
without being affected by the allowable delay of the preceding
activities

Ind. Fi = min(ESi1+) – max(LFi-1) – Duri

Note: make sure that Ind. F ≤ FF

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Exercise : Perform the CPM calculations, including the event

times, for the arrow network shown below.
A D
10 20 8 60
d2
d1 G
5
B E H
10 5 30 9 50 8 70
C F
7 40 4

Arrow network for example 01/22/23

 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
125

Introduction

In some situations, estimating activity duration becomes a

difficult task due to uncertainty inherited in and the risks
associated with some work.

Thus, the duration of an activity is estimated as a range

of time values rather than being a single value.

This section deals with the scheduling of the project

under uncertain activity duration. 01/22/23
 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
126

Program Evaluation and Review Technique

PERT introduces uncertainty into the estimates for activity

and project durations.

PERT is well suited for those situations where there is either

insufficient background information to specify accurately time
and cost or where project activities require research and
development.

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 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
127

AON diagramming can be easily used alternatively AOA

[original development approach].

The method is based on the well-known “central limit

theorem”.

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 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
128

The theorem states that:

… “Where a series of sequential independent activities lie on the

critical path of a network, the sum of the individual activity
durations will be distributed in approximately normal fashion,
regardless of the distribution of the individual activities
themselves….

… The mean of the distribution of the sum of the activity durations

will be the sum of the means of the individual activities and its
variance will be the sum of the activities’ variances”.
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Primary assumptions of PERT can be summarized as follows:

Any PERT path must have enough activities to make central

limit theorem valid.

The mean of the distribution of the path with the greatest

duration, from the initial node to a given node, is given by the
maximum mean of the duration distribution of the paths entering
the node.

PERT critical path is longer enough than any other path in the
network. 01/22/23
 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
130

Six Steps PERT & CPM

1. Define the project and prepare the work breakdown

structure

2. Develop relationships among the activities - decide which

activities must precede and which must follow others

3. Draw the network connecting all of the activities

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 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
131

Step Cont’d

4. Assign time and/or cost estimates to each activity

5. Compute the longest time path through the network – this

is called the critical path

6. Use the network to help plan, schedule, monitor, and

control the project

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Questions PERT & CPM Can Answer

1. When will the entire project be completed?

2. What are the critical activities or tasks in the project?

3. Which are the noncritical activities?

4. What is the probability the project will be completed by a

specific date?

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5. Is the project on schedule, behind schedule, or ahead of

schedule?

6. Is the money spent equal to, less than, or greater than the
budget?

7. Are there enough resources available to finish the project on

time?

8. If the project must be finished in a shorter time, what is the

01/22/23
way to accomplish this at least cost?
 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
134

Variability in Activity Times

CPM assumes we know a fixed time estimate for each
activity and there is no variability in activity times

PERT uses a probability distribution for activity times to

allow for variability

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Variability in Activity Times: Three time estimates are

required

Optimistic time (a): Estimate of the minimum time

required for an activity if exceptionally good luck is
experienced. If everything goes according to plan.

Most–likely or modal time (m) [Most realistic/probable

estimate]: Time required if the activity is repeated a
number of times under essentially the same conditions.
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Pessimistic time (b) [Assuming very

unfavorable conditions]: Estimate of the maximum time
required if unusually bad luck is experienced.

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These three time estimates become the framework on which

the probability distribution curve for the activity is
erected.

Many authors argue that beta distribution is mostly fit

construction activities.

The three times are thought to be easier for managers to

estimate subjectively.

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Using the three times estimates, the expected mean time (te)
is derived using equation below.

Then, te is used as the best available time approximation

for the activity in question.

The standard deviation (σ) is given by equation below,

The variance (ν) can be determined as ν = σ2.

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Estimate follows beta distribution

Expected time:
t = (a + 4m + b)/6
Variance of times:
v = [(b – a)/6]2

Standard Deviation

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By adopting activity expected mean time, the critical path

calculations proceed as CPM.

Associated with each duration in PERT, however, is its

standard deviation or its variance.

The project duration is determined by summing up the

activity expected mean time along the critical path and
thus will be an expected mean duration.

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Since the activities on the critical path are independent of

each other, central limit theory gives the variance of the
project duration as the sum of the individual variances
of these critical path activities.

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 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
142

Once the expected mean time for project duration (TX)

and its standard deviation (σX) are determined, it is
possible to calculate the chance of meeting specific project
duration (TS).

Then normal probability tables are used to determine

such chance using Equation below.

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 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
143

Computing
Variance Most Expected
Optimistic Likely Pessimistic Time Variance
Activity a m b t = (a + 4m + b)/6 [(b – a)/6]2

A 1 2 3 2
.11
B 2 3 4 3
.11
C 1 2 3 2
.11
D 2 4 6 4
.44
E 1 4 7 4
1.00
F 1 2 9 3
01/22/23
1.78
 Stochastic Project Scheduling [PERT]
144

Probability of Project Completion

Project variance is computed by summing the variances of
critical activities
s2 =pProject variance

= (variances of activities
on critical path)

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Project variance
s2 p= .11 + .11 + 1.00 + 1.78 + .11 = 3.11

Project standard deviation

sp = Project variance
= 3.11 = 1.76 weeks

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146

What is the probability this project can be completed on or

before the 16 week deadline?

due expected date

Z = date – of completion /sp

= (16 wks – 15 wks)/1.76

= 0.57 Where Z is the number of

standard deviations the due date
lies from the mean
01/22/23
 The End
147

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