Civil society, conventional participation, protest

politics and regime change

 Structure
I. The civic decline thesis?
1. Trends in party membership & civic activism
2. Rise of protest and cause-oriented politics
3. Generational patterns of activism
II. Teorell Ch 5 overview:
• Role of protest ‘mobilization from below’
• Impacts on democratization
III. Conclusions
• Declining or evolving civic activism?
• Causes & consequences of trends?
 Economic
International
developmen
forces
t

Social Domestic
Structure protest
Processes of
Democratization
and regime
transitions
 Bottom-up popular uprisings
• Color revolutions C&E Europe
• Arab uprisings – Tunisia, Libya, Egypt, Bahrain
• ‘Umbrella revolution’ – Hong Kong protests
• Role of popular mobilization on regime change
 Concepts
Research on political activism and civic
engagement compares:
• The ways that citizens participate in civil
society,
• The processes that lead them to do so, and
• The consequences of these acts.
 Classics
• Gabriel A. Almond and Sidney Verba’s The Civic Culture:
Political Attitudes and Democracy in Five Nations (1963),
• Sidney Verba and Norman Nie’s Participation in America
(1972),
• Sidney Verba, Norman H. Nie, and Jae-on Kim’s
Participation and Political Equality: A Seven-Nation
Comparison (1978), and
• Samuel Barnes and Max Kaase’s Political Action: Mass
Participation in Five Western Democracies (1979).

Democratic Phoenix
II: The decline in civic activism
thesis

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 The civic decline thesis in established
democracies
• Half-empty ballot box? (Wattenberg)
• Desertion of party members? (Dalton, Mair)
• Partisan dealignment?
• Hemorrhaging union rolls?
• Emptying church pews?
• Anemic voluntary organizations? (Putnam)
• Rising political cynicism? (Nye et al)

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Or changing forms of participation?
Figure 1: Typology of the evolution of political action

REPERTOIRES

Citizen-oriented Cause-oriented
repertoires, including repertoires, including
voting, party work and consumer politics,
contact activity demonstrations and
petitions

Traditional voluntary
associations, including
churches, unions and
Older generation
political parties
A G E N C IE S

New social movements

and advocacy
networks, including
Younger generation
environmental and
humanitarian
organizations

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 If participation is changing…
• What are the causes?
– Long-term processes of societal modernization? (Inglehart)
• Growing educational & civic skills
• Decline of deferential loyalty to hierarchical institutions
• Gradual ‘bottom up’ generational shift in ‘critical citizens’
– Result of changing institutions of democracy?
• ‘Top down’ explanations
• Globalization, decentralization & role of nation state
• Growth of cross-cutting issues not accommodated by parties
• Rational response to context of choices and channels of influence

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 If participation is changing…
• What are the consequences?
1. Social inequality?
» Greater civic skills, more demanding acts?
» Who participates by class, income, education, gender, ethnicity
2. Quality of deliberative democracy
» F-to-f interaction, on-going co-operation, social trust?
» Rise of more demanding citizens?
3. For governance?
» For regime change and democratization?
» Stability and violence?
» Fragmentation of policy process?
III: Evidence: declining or
evolving civic activism?
 US Turnout

US Turnout: Vote as a % of Eligible Pop)

 US Turnout
US Congressional elections: % Vote of VAP
60.00

50.00

40.00

30.00

20.00

10.00

0.00
1962 1966 1970 1974 1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002 2006 2010
US Turnout: Vote as a % of Voting Age Pop)
Source: US Census Bureau www.census.gov
 Total party membership as percentage of electorate (M/E)
Mean
Austria
Cyprus (Greek)
Finland
Greece
Slovenia
Bulgaria
Italy
Belgium
Norway
Estonia
Switzerland
Spain
Denmark
Sweden
Portugal
Romania
Lithuania
Netherlands
Germany
Ireland
Slovakia
Czech Republic
France
Hungary
United Kingdom
Poland
Latvia
0.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 10.0 12.0 14.0 16.0 18.0 20.0

Total party membership as percentage of electorate (M/E)

Trends in party membership

Source Van Biezen, Mair and Pogunte EJPR 2012

 Party membership
• Decline in many Western nations
• Broader erosion of partisanship
• Yet substantial cross-national variations
• Does erosion of membership matter?
– For party in government?
– For party finance and staff?
– For party or campaign activism?
US Campaign activism
 Trends in Gross Union Density
Source: Bernhard Ebbinghaus and Jelle Visser. 2000. Trade Unions in Western Europe since 1945. London: Macmillan. CD-Rom.
Note: Net density I (Total union membership as a share of the gainfully employed wage and salary earners.)

Austria Belgium Denmark Finland

80 R-Square = 0.89
R-Square = 0.43

60
R-Square = 0.67
40 R-Square = 0.31

20

France Germany Italy Neth

80

60

40 R-Square = 0.13
R-Square = 0.41
20 R-Square = 0.77

R-Square = 0.72
Norway Switz UK
80

60
R-Square = 0.53
40 R-Square = 0.02

20
R-Square = 0.93
1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000
Year Year Year

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Union Density, 1995

0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
B ela rus
S wed e n
Aze rb a ija n
R us s ia n F ed e rat io n
Ic ela nd
De nma rk
F inla nd
M alt a
C hina
C yp rus
Hung a ry
S lo va kia
No rwa y
B ulg aria
R o mania
Luxe mb o urg
B e lg ium
Aus t ria
C ze ch R ep ub lic
Ireland
B ra zil
C a nad a
M exic o
It a ly
Eg yp t
Germa ny
Aus t ra lia
Ta iwan
P o la nd
Es t o nia
Unit ed King d o m
Gha na
M aurit ius
Arg ent ina
Guyana
Nic ara g ua
Ne w Zea land
Is ra el
P hilip p ine s
Na mib ia
Turkey
S e ne g al
Net herland s
S o ut h Afric a
S wit zerland
S waz ila nd
P o rt ug a l
J ap an
Tanzania
Do minica n R e p ub lic
Nig eria
Union Density:
C ap e Verd e
Ke nya
B o livia
C hile
Gre ece
Venez ue la
C ame ro o n
P ana ma C a na l Zo ne
Table 9.1
Zimb ab we
M ali
S ing ap o re
C o s t a R ic a
C o t e D' Ivo ire
Unit ed S t at e s
Zamb ia
Urug ua y
B o t s wana
S p a in
Ecua d o r
Tunis ia
P a rag uay
Ko re a, R e p ub lic Of
P e ru
El S alvad o r
Erit re a
C o lo mb ia
F ranc e
P a kis t an
Ind ia
M o ro c co
Ho nd ura s
Guat e mala
B a ng lad e s h
Et hio p ia
Ug and a
Tha ila nd
M aurit ania
Ind o ne s ia
Guine
Ga b o na
 Interpretation
• No simple decline in union membership across
Western Europe
• Substantial cross-national variations
worldwide
• Institutional explanations not secular trends

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Secularization Trends
% Church attendance Eurobarometer 1970-2000

Belgium Den France GB

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

Germany Greece Ire Italy

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

Lux Neth NI Portugal

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

Spain

80.0

60.0

40.0

20.0

1970 1980 1990

year
Ref: Pippa Norris. 2010. Sacred & secular CUP
 Interpretation?
• Evidence of secularization in W.Europe
• Development is linked to secularization
• Political implications?

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Experience of Political Activism
Source: WVS mid-1990s
% ‘Have done’ All
Discuss politics 70.0
Voting turnout 64.5
Civic activism 62.4
Signed a petition * 28.5
Attended demonstrations* 15.7
Joined in boycott * 8.9
Active union member 5.4
Joined unofficial strike * 5.0
Active party member 4.6
Occupied buildings * 1.6

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Rise of Protest Politics
% ‘Have done’ in 8 postindustrial societies: WVS

  Mid-1970s 1980s 1990 mid-1990s

Signed petition 32 46 54 60

Demonstrated 9 14 18 17

Consumer Boycott 5 8 11 15

Unofficial Strike 2 3 4 4

Occupied buildings 1 2 2 2

Source: World Values Surveys

Political action: have attended peaceful demonstrations (WVS 2005)
Andorra
France
Italy
Spain
Sweden
Germany
Norway
Switzerland
Cyprus
Ethiopia
Canada
Mali
Peru
Burkina Faso
Serbia
Georgia
Australia
Zambia
New Zealand
Argentina
India
Netherlands
Iraq
Moldova
Morocco
Chile
Brazil
Uruguay
Ukraine
Mexico
Great Britain
Russian Federation
United States
South Africa
Trinidad and Tobago
Rwanda
Indonesia
Colombia
Slovenia
Bulgaria
South Korea
Poland
Finland
Japan
Ghana
Taiwan
Romania
Turkey
Jordan
Malaysia
Thailand
Guatemala
Egypt
Viet Nam

.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0% 35.0% 40.0% 45.0%
 Political action: have attended peaceful demonstrations (WVS 2010)
Spain
Chile
Nigeria
Sweden
Cyprus (G)
New Zealand
United States
Trinidad and Tobago
Uruguay
Ukraine
Kyrgyzstan
Russia
South Korea
Mexico
Colombia
Morocco
Estonia
Zimbabwe
Poland
Armenia
Kazakhstan
Ghana
Japan
Ecuador
Azerbaijan
Malaysia

0.0% 5.0% 10.0% 15.0% 20.0% 25.0% 30.0%

Protest & democracy
Protest & econ development
Generational shifts?
 Age differences?
• Age differences?
– If so three possible causes:
• Generational effects,
• Period effects, and
• Lifecycle effects.
• European Social Survey 2002
• 15 European nations (22)

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Type of acts
• Citizen-oriented repertoires
– Voted
– Contacted a politician or official
– Donated money to political organization
– Party member
– Worked for a political party
• Cause-oriented repertoires
– Bought products for political reasons
– Signed a petition
– Boycotted certain products
– Lawfully demonstrated
– Took part in illegal protest

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Age profile of activists
All Younger Middle- Older Age Gap
(i) Aged (ii) (iii) (i-iii)
18-29 30-59 60+

Citizen-oriented repertoires
Voted 72 50 79 84 -34
Contacted a politician or official 16 12 19 14 -2
Donated money to political organization 8 7 9 8 -1
Party member 6 3 6 8 -4
Worked for a political party 5 4 5 5 -1

Cause-oriented repertoires
Bought products for political reasons 24 24 28 17 7
Signed a petition 22 23 24 15 8
Boycotted certain products 15 14 17 11 3
Lawfully demonstrated 6 9 6 3 6
Took part in illegal protest 0.9 1.4 0.8 0.6 0.8

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Citizen-oriented acts
M e a n C itiz e n - o r ie n te d a c t iv is m s c a le

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0
Major Region
.8
Nordic Europe

.6 Northern Europe

.4 Mediterranean Europe

.2 Postcommunist Europe
1920-1929 1940-1949 1960-1969 1980-1985
1930-1939 1950-1959 1970-1979

Cohort
Cases weighted by DWEIGHT

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Citizen-oriented acts by cohort
Cze ch Repub lic Finl an d Gre ece Hun gary
1.5

1.0

0.5

Ir eland Is rael Nethe rland s Nor w ay

1.5

1.0

0.5

Poland Por tugal Slovenia Spain

1.5

1.0

0.5

Sw e den Sw itze rlan d Unit ed King dom

1.5

1.0

0.5

2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Cohor t Cohor t Cohor t

 Mean age of activists
55
52
50
50 48
47 47
46
45 44 44 44

40 40
40

35

Note: Whether the respondent did these acts during the previous 12-months
Source: The European Social Survey, 2002
 Cause–oriented acts
M e a n C a u s e - o r ie n t e d a c t iv is m s c a le

1.6

1.4

1.2

1.0

Major Region
.8

Nordic Europe
.6

Northern Europe
.4

Mediterranean Europe
.2

0.0 Postcommunist Europ

1920-1929 1940-1949 1960-1969 1980-1985
1930-1939 1950-1959 1970-1979

Cohort
Cases weighted by DWEIGHT

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Cze ch Republic Finland Gre ece Hungary
Cause-oriented act

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
Cause-
Ir eland Is rael Nethe rlands Nor way
oriented acts
Cause-oriented act

1.5

1.0

0.5
by cohort
0.0

Poland Por tugal Slovenia Spain

Cause-oriented act

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0

Swe den Switze rland United Kingdom

Cause-oriented act

1.5

1.0

0.5

0.0
2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0 2.0 4.0 6.0 8.0

Cohort Cohort Cohort

 Age of members
55 54
52

50 49 49 49
48
47 47
46 46 46
45 43
42

40

35

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

M e a n T o t . m e m b e r s in v o lu n t a r y a s s o c ia t io n s

Membership in associations
3.0

2.5

2.0

Major Region
1.5

Nordic Europe
1.0
Northern Europe

.5 Mediterranean Europe

0.0 Postcommunist Europ

1920-1929 1940-1949 1960-1969 1980-1985
1930-1939 1950-1959 1970-1979

Cohort
Cases weighted by DWEIGHT

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Conclusions
• From the politics of loyalties to the politics of
choice?
– Citizen oriented action peak in middle age
– Cause-oriented acts most common among young
people
– Associations: Mixed pattern
– Young people not more engaged in new social
movements

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

I: Protests and democratization

Ref: Pippa Norris. 2003. Democratic Phoenix CUP

 Teorell: Protests & democracy
• Ch5
• Collective action and forces ‘from below’
• People power, peaceful demonstrations,
political strikes, mass riots, uprisings, civil war
• Quantitative evidence : CNTS data
• How measure ‘event’ data? Sporadic, irregular
• Incidents of peaceful demonstrations, riots,
strikes from Banks derived from NYT
 Teorell Results Ch 5
• Popular mobilization does not trigger downturns in democracy
• Peaceful demonstrations (but not riots or peaceful strikes)
facilitated upturns in democracy the following year
• Effect survived robustness tests, one year lags, full battery of
controls.
• Why? Cases of Philippines, South Africa, Nepal
• Peaceful uprisings divide regime elites, mobilize society, and
tap into state’s foreign relations
• Apply to the color revolutions? The Arab uprisings? HK?
• Many puzzles remain
 Theories of protest politics
• Collective action strengthens democratization – but how?
• Anti-state rebels
– Crozier, Huntington and Watanuki
– The Crisis of Democracy (1975)
– Radical challenge to state through ‘mobilization from below’
• Conventional strategic resource
– Inglehart
– Modernization theory and cultural change:
• Protests arise from value shifts & more demanding citizens in modern societies
• Contextual theory
– Mobilizing processes: organizers, issues & events
– Structures of opportunity (Tarrow)
– Short-term disruptive movements push for liberalization but elite actors are
critical for the outcome of regime transitions
– Dynamic and contingent outcomes (Rossi and Della Porta)
 Economic
International
developmen
forces
t

Social Domestic
Structure protest
Processes of
Democratization
and regime
transitions
 1 assignment
st

Research paper (35%) Due by the start of class on 8th Oct

You can choose to answer one question out of any questions listed in the syllabus
from classes 1-9. The paper should be about 2500 words in length. It should be
designed primarily for the research community and structured with standard
subheadings as follows.
I. The selected question, the plan of your paper and synopsis of your argument
II. Review of the core theoretical debate
III. Summary of the empirical literature and existing evidence
V. Conclusions and implications.
VI. Endnotes: comprehensive list of literature and references used in the paper
The first assignment requires you to develop a core theoretical argument in
response to the question, to read widely and provide a thorough and balanced
synthesis of the existing research published in journals and books on the topic, to
consider what evidence is available from the research to support your claims, and
then to summarize the key points and consider their implications in your
conclusion. Your ideal template is a research article publishable in a peer-
reviewed scholarly journal.
Next class on Monday

CONSTITUTIONAL DESIGN