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Chapter 18
Chapter 18
Introduction
X + 2X 2 + X2
= + 1 1
+ X
1 1
2
Y Y = 0 X1
0
Y = 45.739
• It seems that s is not particularly small (relative
to the mean of Y).
• Question:
€ Can we conclude the model does not fit the data well?
Not necessarily.
Coefficient of Determination
• The definition is:
2 SSE
R = 1−
∑ i
(Y − Y ) 2
H0: 1 = 2 = … = k = 0
H1: At least one i is not equal to zero.
ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression k = 6 3123.8 520.6 17.14 0.0000
Residual n–k–1 = 93 2825.6 30.4
Total n-1 = 99 5949.5
SSR MSR=SSR/k
SSE MSE=SSE/(n-k-1)
F,k,n-k-1 = F0.05,6,100-6-1=2.17
F = 17.14 > 2.17
Insufficient Evidence
La Quinta Inns, Point Estimate
Xm18-01
• Predict the average operating margin of an inn at a site
with the following characteristics:
– 3815 rooms within 3 miles,
– Closet competitor .9 miles away,
– 476,000 sq-ft of office space,
– 24,500 college students,
– $35,000 median household income,
– 11.2 miles distance to downtown center.
MARGIN = 38.14 - 0.0076 (3815) +1.65 (.9) + 0.020 (476)
+0.21 (24.5) + 0.41 (35) - 0.23 (11.2) = 37.1%
Regression Diagnostics
• The conditions required for the model
assessment to apply must be checked.
– Is the error variable normally
distributed? Draw a histogram of the residuals
– Is the error variance constant? Plot the residuals versus the
predicted values of Y
– Are the errors independent? Plot the residuals versus the
time periods
– Can we identify outlier?
– Is multicolinearity (correlation between the Xi’s) a problem?