Bayes Theorem

Medical Test ‘Paradox’

Suppose that there is a test for a very rare asymptomatic disease that affects 1% of the population.
One day you took the test and get positive result. You asked the doctor, and she said the test has a
sensitivity of 90%, that is, it accurately gives positive test result among the patients who actually have
it 90% of the time (equivalently, you can say the test has 10% False Negative Rate). The test also has
91% specificity, i.e. it gives negative test results 91% of the time among the people who do not have
the disease (equivalently, you can say the test has 9% False Positive Rate).
How confident should you be that you actually have the disease?
 Prior probability

𝑃 ( 𝐷 )=0.01 𝑃 ( 𝐷 ′ )=0.99
𝑃 ( +¿ 𝐷 )=0.90

0
𝑃 ( −|𝐷 ′ )=0.91

𝑃 ( +¿ 𝐷 ′ )=0.09

Posterior probability
𝑃¿

Using Bayes Theorem:

𝑃 ¿
Using a single test, you should have only 9% confidence that you actually have disease!
 Suppose that after getting the positive result on the first test, you decided to take another test on a
different, independent and unrelated hospital. On this second test, you again get positive result. How
does your belief change that you actually have the disease?

Solution: We use Bayes theorem once more, but with the previous posterior probability (from the first
test) as prior probability
𝑃 ( 𝐷 )=0.09 𝑃 ( 𝐷 ′ )=0.91

𝑃 ¿

𝑃 ¿
Obtaining two positive results from independent tests increases your chance of having the disease by more than 5
times!
9.2 %→ 49.7 %
Bayes Theorem: Key Takeaway

Evidence Determine Truth Value of Your Hypothesis?

Evidence Updates Your Belief on The Truth Value of Your Hypothesis

More Independent Evidences Means Higher Belief On Your Hypothesis