Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Arun Kumar
Foreign Exchange Market
6
Exchange Rate Mechanism - What it is ?
•Export Receivables
•Import Payables
•Disbursal of Forex Loan
•Repayment of Forex Loan
•Foreign Investment
7
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Movements
DOMESTIC
Political/ Economic/ Speculative
Political
•Type of Government
•Stability
•Track Record of the Country
•Current Political Developments
•Vision Of Political Leadership
•Exchange Control Regulations
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Movements
DOMESTIC
Political/ Economic/ Speculative
Economic
•Inflation Rate Differential
•Price Elasticity Of Imports / Exports
•Interest Rate Differential
•Relative GDP Growth Rates
•Relative Fiscal and Monetary Policies
•Relative BoP Position
•Relative Share Market Movements
•Relative Capital Flows
•Central Bank Interventions
•Regulations
9
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Movements
DOMESTIC
Political/ Economic/ Speculative
Speculative
•Speculative Activities by
Corporates/ Investment Houses mainly
in International Markets
10
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Movements
GEOPOLITICAL
Global/ People/Event/ Monetary & Financial
Global
•Oil / Commodity Prices
•Capital Market Flows
•Trade Flows
•War / Threat of War / Terror Attack
•Speculative Flows
11
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Movements
GEOPOLITICAL
Global/ People/Event/ Monetary & Financial
12
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Movements
GEOPOLITICAL
Global/ People/Event/ Monetary & Financial
13
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Factors Affecting Exchange Rate Movements
GEOPOLITICAL
Global/ People/Event/ Monetary & Financial
14
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Evolution of Currency (Exchange Rate) System
15
Exchange Rate Mechanism
ERM and RBI
OFFER/ASK -
This is the rate at which market is willing to sell a currency . The right
hand side (RHS) quote is called ‘Offer’ or ‘Ask’ rate. This is the rate at
which the Quoting Entity Sells the first currency against the second.
Suppose, you want to sell USD 1 mio against INR. Since the
standard pair is quoted as USD/INR, ask for a quote for ‘Buy
USD/INR 60.00 mio’
22
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Market conventions- Determination of Value Dates
• Every forex transaction involves exchange of two currencies by the
counter parties to the transaction. The date on which the two
currencies involved in an exchange transaction change hands i.e.
when the nostro account is credited in case of a purchase and
debited in case of a sale, is the value date.
• Exchange normally takes place two working days after deal date and
is called spot date.
e.g. for a USD/INR trade done on 16 June 2014 value spot, the subsequent
business days in both markets are 17 June 2014 and 18 June 2014. Therefore,
settlement date is 18 June 2014.
e.g. for a USD/INR trade done on 18 June 2014 value spot, the subsequent
business days in both markets are 21 June 2014 and 22 June 2014. Therefore,
settlement date is 22 June 2014.
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
How the Spot Date determined?.....
3. Where there is/are intervening holiday/(s) in INR market but not in USD Market
The settlement will be done on the second business day in INR MARKET after the
trade date.
e.g. for a USD/INR trade done on 15 May 2014 value spot, the subsequent business
days in INR market are 16 May 2014 and 20 May 2014 , (only INR market being
closed on 19 May and both markets closed on 17 and 18 May 2014). Therefore,
settlement date is 20 May 2014.
4. Where there is/are intervening holiday/(s) in USD MARKET but not in INR market
The settlement will be done on the first business day in USD Market, after the trade
date.
e.g. for a USD/INR trade done on 03 July 2014 value spot, the subsequent business
day in USD market is 07 July 2014 (only USD market closed on 04 July 2014, both
markets closed on 05 and 06 July 2014) . Therefore, settlement date is 07 July
2014.
In this case, TOM and SPOT both trades will be settled on 07 July 2014.
25
Exchange Rate Mechanism
How is the Cash/ Tom Date determined?.....
Market Prices are usually quoted in terms of Spot, Cash, Tom etc.
Spot
Settlement of funds in foreign market normally takes place after
two working days. Rates quoted are on spot basis.
If the settlement date is two working days after the txn date i.e.
if the Txn date is 18-07-14
Settlement date will be 20-07-14
Cash txn-
When settlement is done on the same day; it is a cash transaction.
If the settlement date is same as txn date (e.g. TT buying/selling
value cash) i.e.
if the Txn date is 18-07-14
Settlement date will be 20-07-14
Tom txn-
When settlement is done on next working day; it is a Tom
transaction. If the settlement date is one working day after the txn
date i.e.
if the Txn date is 18-07-14
Settlement date will be 19-07-14 28
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Sale/ Purchase of currencies – Market conventions
• The Customer and the Bank are under an obligation to buy/sell on settlement
date at the contracted rate if the contract is run to maturity. The customer can
however cancel the contract, take partial, early or late deliveries.
• The forward rates are quoted in the market and are available on Reuters/
Bloomberg/ Newswire 18 or any other information screen
• Forwards are used to “hedge”i.e. cover the risk of future currency fluctuations
as also to “Trade/ Speculate” i.e. profit from currency movements
30
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Forward Exchange Contract
Given that-
Interest rate scenario : USD 4%, INR 7%; Spot-INR/USD : Rs 55
Bank borrows USD 1 mio @4% and in return sells USD 1 mio value spot
@ Rs 55/= to market
Bank places Rs 55,000,000 @ 7% p.a.
Therefore, the USD/INR 6 month forward sale for 23 May 2015 is calculated as 52.38 + 1.06
= 53.44.
Similarly, the USD/INR forward purchase for end of Nov 2015 is calculated as 52.37 + 1.065
= 53.4350
Forward premium or discount in a currency pair normally denotes the carrying cost
of the first currency.
For most currencies the standard contract maturities are one, two, three, six, nine
and twelve months
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
Forward Exchange Contract-
Forward rate for Currency Pairs
Forward rate for a currency pair is usually determined by the interest rate
differential in the two markets
e.g.. EUR / USD = 1.5930/35
6 mth EUR intt rate = 5.1% p.a.
6 mth USD intt rate = 3.1% p.a.
Aide memoire – The spread in forward rate should not be narrower than that in
spot rate.
PRACTICE : In practice, the demand and supply and future expectations also have
some impact so the theoretically calculated price will not be equal to the actually
traded prices.
33
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Forward Rate - Forward Margin
Forward margin or swap points is difference between the spot rate and forward
rate
Fineness of Quotation
•Exchange rate is quoted upto 4 decimals in
multiples of 0.0025.
35
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Forward Exchange Contract-
Delivery Scenario
Forward rate is today’s expected market rate for a future date. The actual rate
(spot) on the maturity date usually differs from the forward rate of the contract.
Eg. - A customer has booked a 1 month outward USD 1 mio at 52.00
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
Forward Exchange Contract-
Settlement of Contract
A customer can settle the contract-
Types of tenor in a forward contract -
At the time of booking a forward contract the customer can choose for
1. A fixed delivery date
2. A period called option period (upto 1 calender month) within which the customer can
deliver his part of the contract on any date
In both the cases, the forward rate is fixed. However, in the latter case, as the customer is
buying the option to deliver anytime during the contracted month, the forward rate may
be worse than that of a fixed date delivery.
Delivery types :-
a.a customer can deliver his part of the contract on delivery date as per the contract, at the
contracted rate
b.a customer can deliver his part of the contract during an option period as per the contract,
at the contracted rate.
c.a customer can deliver a part or whole of the contracted amount, anytime prior to the fixed
delivery date or prior to the start of option period, at an adjusted rate given by Global
Markets
d.a customer can cancel the contract anytime before the final delivery date by settling the
difference between the contracted rate and prevailing spot
37
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Forward Exchange Contract-
Cancellation of Contract
A customer can opt for cancelation of Forward Contract- entered into earlier,
subject to limits specified by the Regulator.
Eg. A customer books 1 year inward USD 1 mio at 51.25. The customer cancels
the contract after 6 months at a prevailing rate of 53.28. As is clear, the customer
has sold USD 1 mio at 51.25 but buys it after 6 months at 53.28. The customer
incurs a loss of INR 2.03 million (approx) value delivery date.
If the customer in the above example wishes to bear the loss immediately, INR
2.03 million is discounted for the period and the amount is recovered from the
customer.
38
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Forward Exchange Contract-
Advantages:
• Simple
• Easy to use
• Liquid
• Transparent
Disadvantages:
40
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Types of Merchant Rates- Purchases
T.T. Buying Rate:- Transactions where our Bank’s Nostro accounts
have already been credited on or before the transaction date e.g.,
proceeds of bills/instruments sent on collection basis and realised,
Encashment Drafts/TTs for which cover is provided by the Foreign Banks in
advance as per agency arrangement.
When is applied
• Payment of DD, TT etc.- nosrto account already credited
• Foreign bills collected- after payment by the importer and crediting of
nostro account
• Cancellation of foreign exchange sold earlier
Calculation methodology
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
Merchant Rates- Mechanism
Bill Buying Rate-
• Proceeds are realized after presentation of bill and crediting of nostro
account
• Transaction involve delay in realization of foreign exchange by the bank
• Calculated by deducting exchange margin from the interbank buying rate
and
• adding or deducting forward premium or discount
When is applied
• When foreign bill is purchased.
Calculation methodology
USD/INR spot buying rate-
Add- Forward Premium (for transit and usance period rounded off to lower month)
OR
Less-Forward Discount (for transit and usance period rounded off to higher month)
Less -exchange margin
Bill Buying Rate-
Rounded off to nearest multiple of 0.0025
•bank notionally borrows cash for two days from mkt to pay customer;
•sells $ bought against INR in interbank mkt at spot rates –
•settlement: two days – T+2 )
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
Merchant Rates- Mechanism
Forward Purchase Rate (for export transactions)
A customer wants to take a fwd contract for USD 250,000 for its export
proceeds to be received on 30-10-14-
customer requests on 18-06-14 to book a forward cover for the amount for
value 30-10-14
(i.e interest rate differential upto 30-10-14 ; relative Forward Difference Points)
(i.e interest rate differential upto 30-10-14 ; relative Forward Difference Points)
Net effect: bank sells GBP & buys INR @ 1.4850 x 55.80= 82.86
(notional market bid rate for GBP against INR)
Quote to customer will be less margin, say : 82.81
GBP / INR Merchant rates will be as follows:
TT Buy: 1.4850 x 55.77 = 82.82
Bill Buy: 1.4850 x 55.76 = 82.80
TT Sell: 1.4853 x 55.86 = 82.97
Bill Sell: 1.4853 x 55.89 = 83.01
(in practice, profit margins loaded on USD-INR rates; no margin loaded
on GBP/USD leg of transaction 48
Exchange Rate Mechanism
Merchant Rates- Mechanism
Exchange Rates for Currencies other than USD/INR:
For Example
Customer wants to convert Sing $ into INR
Quote Sing $ / INR rate (Sing $ is direct quote currency)
Say USD/ Sing $ spot bid / offer rates are: 1.7145 / 1.7150
How to Calculate
Sell Sing $ and buy USD @ 1.7150
Sell USD amt & buy INR @ 55.80
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
Merchant Rates- Mechanism
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
Setting Up of Forward Contract / Derivative Limits
Past Performance Method : Eligibility Notional:
•Importers / exporters are permitted to book forward contracts on the basis of past
performance (without production of any underlying documents) upto the average of the
past three years’ or the previous year’s turnover, whichever is higher.
•Outstanding contracts under this facility at any point of time can now be upto 100%
(increased from 50%) of the eligible limit. The enhanced limits may be permitted by
branches on being satisfied about the genuine requirements of their constituents after
examination of the respective documents .
•Average of last three years turnover or last year’s turnover, whichever is higher. A
certificate of import / export turnover of the customer during the past three years duly
certified by their Chartered Accountant in the prescribed format
•Limits is assessed separately and not in conjunction with normal credit facilities
•The forward contracts booked in the aggregate during the year and outstanding at any
point of time should not exceed the eligible limits
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
Setting Up of Forward Contract / Derivative Limits
Past Performance Method : Eligibility Notional:
•Contracts booked in excess of 75% of eligible limit will be on deliverable basis and cannot
be cancelled. Contract once cancelled can not be re-booked
•CA certificate is required that all guidelines are adhered to, if outstanding Forward
Contracts are higher than 50% of the limit.
•Importers and exporters should furnish declaration regarding amounts booked with other
ADs.
•An undertaking from the customer to provide documentary evidence before the maturity.
•In case of exporters, overdue export bills should not exceed 10% of the total export.
•The sanctioned limit works like a demand loan and not a cash credit limit.
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Exchange Rate Mechanism
Forward Contract- Cancellation
• A customer can opt to cancel a forward contract entered into earlier, subject to
limits specified by the Regulator.
• For pipeline transactions, a grace period of 6 working days after maturity of the
contract to reconcile the pipeline transactions. To cancel the contract on 7th
working day.
• For other transactions, to cancel the outstanding contracts latest by 2nd day
after expiry of the contract.
• Overdue Forward Conctracts. After due date, customer not entitled to any
exchange gains while liable for recovery of exchange losses.
54
Questions ?
Thanks