Chapter 14

From Randomness to
Probability
Random Phenomena
● A situation where we know all the possible
outcomes, but we don’t know which one
will or has happened.
Probability
Probability- an event’s long run relative frequency

Outcome- the result of the trial

Event- a combination of outcomes

Independent (trial)- the outcome of the trial doesn’t

change or influence the outcome of another
The Law of Large Numbers
● The long run relative frequency of repeated
independent events gets closer and closer to the true
relative frequency as the number of trials increase.
● The law of large numbers does not compensate for
whatever happened in the past.
Personal Probability
● Personal probabilities are ones we express that are not
based on long run relative frequencies.
● They do not display the consistency we need for
probabilities, so stick with formally defined
probabilities.
Formal Probability
● There are two requirements for a formal probability
- a probability is a number between 0 and 1
- For any event A, 0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1

● The “Something has to Happen Rule”

- the probability of the set of all possible outcomes must
equal 1
Formal Probability Cont.
● Complement Rule
- The set of outcomes that are not in the event A is
called a complement of A, denoted AC
-The probability of an event occurring is 1 minus the
probability that it doesn’t occur: P(A) = 1 – P(AC)
Formal Probability Cont.
● Addition Rule
- Events that have no outcomes in common are called
disjoint.
- P(A or B) = P(A) + P(B), provided that A and B are
disjoint
Formal Probability Cont.
● Multiplication Rule
-Used for two independent events
-P(A and B) = P(A) x P(B), provided that A and B are
independent and have probabilities greater than 0.
Problem #21
As mentioned in the chapter, opinion polling organizations
contact their respondents by sampling random telephone
numbers. Although interviewers can reach about 76% of
US households, the percentage of those contacted who
agree to cooperate with the survey has fallen from 58% in
1997 to 38% in 2003 Each household, of course, is
independent of others.
Solving 21
A. What is the probability that the next household on the
list will be contacted, but will refuse to cooperate?
-Well, we know the probability that they do cooperate.
Which is 58% in 97, and 38% in 2003. We must also
incorporate only 76% of household.
-Subtract the chance of cooperation in 2003 from 1.
1-0.38=0.62
-And then multiply that by the amount of households
contacted. The result will be the probability.
0.62*0.76=0.4712
Solving 21
B. What is the probability (in 2003) of failing
to contact a household or of contacting the
household but not getting them to agree to
interview?
-The question asks OR. So We just need to take the
probability of both events occuring, multiply, and use the
sum to subtract from 1.
1-(0.76)(0.38)= 0.7112
Solving 21
C. Show another way to solve part B
(1-0.76)+0.76(1-0.38)=0.7112
-Take the probability of the house being contacted and
subtract it from 1 to find houses that were not contacted. (1-
0.76)
-Add the result to the probability the house being contacted,
but refused to cooperate 0.24+0.76(1-0.38)
-You see 0.76 being multiplied on the parentheses in order to
only take houses contacted into account.
Problem #23
The Masterfoods company says that before the
introduction of purple, yellow candies made up 20% of
their plain M&Ms, red another 20%, and orange, blue, and
green each made up 10%. The rest were brown.
Solving 23
A. If you pick an M&M at random, what is the probability that...

1. it is brown?
.3, divide the 30% by 100% of the M&Ms
2. it is yellow or orange?
.3, yellow-20% orange-10% 20+10=30% 30/100= .3
3. it is not green?
.9, 10% are green, 100-10=90% (not green) 90/100=.9
4. it is striped?
None of the M&Ms were striped therfore the probability of a striped one being
picked will be 0
Solving 23
B. If you pick three M&M’s in a row what is the probability that…

1. they are all brown?

.027, the probability that you will pick a brown one is .3, therefore to find the probability that you
will pick three in a row you use this equation
(.3)(.3)(.3)=.027
2. the third one is the first one that’s red?
.128, probability not red=.8 red=.2
(.8)(.8)(.2)=.128
3. none are yellow?
.512, probability not yellow=.8
(.8)(.8)(.8)=.512
4. at least one is green?
.271, Subtract the probability of none of the M&M’s being green by one
(.9)(.9)(.9)=.729 1-.729= .271