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货币时间价值( TVM )
被财务和非财务业务经理用作强大的财务决策工具。
做出正确的个人财务决策的关键。
Introduction
• Basic TVM Concept : 基本 TVM 概念:
• $1 today is worth more than $1 next year.
Inflow Outflow
Organization
Positive # Negative #
Example of a Time Line
Outflow Inflow
Future Value (FV)
• Value of an investment after one or more periods. 一个
或多个时期后的投资价值。
• Example :
Refer to the previous time line, the $105 payment your
bank credits to your account one year from the original
$100 investment at 5% annual interest.
请参阅上一个时间表,即您的银行从原始 100 美元投资一
年内以 5% 年利息记入您账户的 105 美元付款。
• Compounding 复合
• Interest is earned on both principal and interest.
利息从本金和利息中赚取。
• Today’s Cash Flow + Interest on Principal and
Interest on Interest = Value in 2 years 今天的现
金流 + 本金利息和利息 = 2 年内的价值
•
Example : Compounding and Future Value
• Assumptions : 假设
• Invest $100 today.
• Earn 5% annual interest for more than one year
(2 years in the following equation). 赚取 5% 的
年利息超过一年(在以下等式中为 2 年)。
•
The Power of Compounding 复合的力量
Compound interest is a powerful wealth-building tool
Exponential Growth 复利是一种强大的财富积累工具 指数增长
Present Value (PV)
• The opposite of Future Value (FV)
• Future Value = Compounding
• Present Value = Discounting
• 未来价值 ( FV ) 相反
• 未来价值 = 复利
• 现值 = 贴现
Present Value (PV)
• Discounting
• Value today of sum expected to be
received in future. 预计将来收到的金额的
今天价值。
• Next period’s valuation ÷ One period of
discounting 下一期的估值 ÷ 一个贴现期
•
Example : Discounting and Present Value
• Assumptions : 假设
• Banks pays $105 in 1 year. 银行在 1 年内支付
105 美元。
• Interest rate = 5% interest per year. 利率 = 每年
5% 的利息。
• Present Value (PV :
Example : Present Value Over Multiple Periods
• Assumptions :
• $100 payment five years in the future.
• 五年后支付 100 美元。
• Interest rate = 5% interest per year.
• 利率 = 每年 5% 的利息。
Present Value with Multiple Rates 具有多个利率的现值
• Concept : Discounting 概念 : 折扣
• Value today of sum expected to be received in
future -- Variable rates of interest over N periods.
预计未来收到的金额的今天价值 - N 个时期的可变
利率。
•
Example : Present Value with Multiple Rates 示例:
具有多个汇率的现值
• Assumptions :
• Banks pays $2,500 at the end of 3rd year.
• Example :
• Interest rate = 6% per year 利率 = 每年 6%
• Rule of 72 calculation : 72 计算法则:
72 / 6 = 12 years
It takes roughly 12 years to double the original amount.
72 / 6 = 12 年
大约需要 12 年才能使原始金额翻倍。
Interest Rate to Double an Investment 投资翻倍的利率
Computing Interest Rates 计算利率
• Concept : Solving for Interest Rate
• 概念 : 解决利率问题
Assumptions :
•
Bought asset for $350; Sold asset for $475
以 350 美元的价格购买了资产 ; 以 $475 的价格出售资
产
Timeframe : 3 years 时间范围 : 3 年
$475 = $350 x (1 + i)3
(1 + i)3 = 1.36
Take the cubic root : 1 + i = 1.11
Solving for Time 求解时间
• Concept : Solving for Time
• Assumptions/Known Data : 假设 / 已知数据
• Starting Cash Flow
• Interest Rate
• Future Cash Flow
• 起始现金流
• 利率
• 未来现金流
Example : Solving for Time
• When interest rates are 9% per year, how long
will it take $5,000 to double ?
当利率为每年 9% 时, 5 , 000 美元需要多长时间
才能翻倍?
• Assumptions :
• Interest = 9% per year
• PV = - 5,000
• PMT = 0
• FV = 10,000
INPUT 2 5 -100 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 110.25
INPUT 5 5 -100 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 127.63
INPUT 40 5 -100 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 704.00
More than
double
TVM Relationships Are Exponential Not Linear
What is the FV of $100 if invested for 40 years at 5% annual interest ?
如果以 5% 的年利率投资 40 年, 100 美元的 FV 是多少?
INPUT 40 5 -100 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 704.00
What is the FV of $100 if invested for 40 years at 10% annual interest ?
如果以 10% 的年利率投资 40 年, 100 美元的 FV 是多少?
INPUT 40 10 -100 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 4,525.93
Exponential
指数
Present Value
INPUT 2 5 0 100.00
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT
What is the PV if we can get $100 in the future and discount
for a two-year period at 5% annual interest ? 如果我们将来可
以获得 100 美元,并以 5% 的年利息在两年内贴现,那么 PV
是什么?
PV = - 90.70
Present Value
Solve for 5 years :
INPUT 5 5 0
N I/YR PV PMT FV
OUTPUT 100.00
What is the PV if we can get $100 in the future and discount for
a five-year period at 5% annual interest ? 如果我们将来可以获
得 100 美元,并以 5% 的年利息在五年内贴现,那么 PV 是什
么?
PV = - 78.35
Solving for Time
Several
(Different)
Cash Flows
几种(不同
的)现金流
Future Value – Level Cash Flows 水平现金流
• Concept : Compounding 概念 : 复合
• Also called “annuities” 也称为 " 年金 "
• Value in the future. 未来的价值。
• Same cash flows paid in every period. 每
个期间支付的现金流相同。
•
...
Finding FV – Level Cash Flows/Annuity
• Assumptions :
• Invest $100 at the end of each year for 5
years. 每年年底投资 100 美元,为期 5 年。
• Interest rates : 8% per year 利率 :每年
8%
•
Level Cash Flows Time Line 水平现金流时间线
Step 2
Step 3
Add two sums together –
FV of both is $690.66
将两个总和相加 – 两者的
FV 为 $690.66
Present Value of Multiple Cash Flows 多个现金流的现
值• Multiple Cash Flows 多种现金流
汽车贷款和住房抵押贷款。
• Determining value of business opportunities.
确定商机的价值
• Concept : Discounting 概念 : 折扣
不同的现金流在不同的时间支付
Present Value – Level Cash Flows 现值 – 水平现金流
• Concept : Discounting 概念 : 折扣
54
Present Value of a Perpetuity 永久现值
55
Mathematically, 1
1- (1 + i) n
(PVIFA i, n ) =
i
We said that a perpetuity is an annuity
where n = infinity. What happens to
this formula when n gets very, very
large? 我们说过,永久年金是 n = 无穷大
的年金。 当 n 变得非常非常大时,这个公
式会发生什么? 56
When n gets very large,
1
So we’re left with PVIFA =
i
57
Present Value of a Perpetuity
• So, the PV of a perpetuity is very
simple to find: 永久性的 PV 很容
易找到:
PMT
PV =
i
58
Example: Perpetuity
What should you be willing to pay in order to
receive $10,000 annually forever, if you require
8% per year on the investment? 如果您需要每年
8% 的投资,那么为了永远每年获得 10 , 000 美元,
您应该愿意支付什么?
PMT $10,000
PV = =
i .08
= $125,000
59
Ordinary Annuities vs. Annuities Due 普通年金与到期年金
• Assumptions :
m = compound frequency
Example : EARs vs. APR
• Assumptions :
• Borrow $100 today; 12% annual interest
rate. 今天借 100 美元 ;12% 年利率。
• APR : Loan compounds annually -- you
pay 12.00% APR : 每年的贷款复合物 - 您
支付 12.00%
• EAR : Loan compounds monthly -- you pay
12.68%EAR : 每月贷款复合物 - 您支付
12.68%
Finding Payments on Amortized Loan 寻找摊销贷款的
付款
• Rearrange PV of annuity formula to solve for the payment.
重新安排年金公式的 PV 以解决付款问题。
Example : Payments on Amortized Loan
• Assumptions :
•
End of Unit 3