Professional Documents
Culture Documents
LUMBER
CAPITAL
BUDGETING
By Group 5
PROCEDURES
ARLANDO PUTRA ARVIANTO |
2403222102
A ROPIANTA GINTING M |
2403222103
MUHAMMAD RAVI ISMAIL |
2403222104
1. Annual cash flow of Dakota and Nakoi
Dakota Nakoi
Cash-inflows (sales 7,000 units per day x 240 days x $1.80 per unit 6,000 units per day x 240 days x $1.80 per unit
revenue) $3.024.000,00 $2.592.000,00
70% x $3,024,000 70% x $2,592,000
Less COGS
$2.116.800,00 $1.814.400,00
Gross Profit $907.200,00 $777.600,00
Less Labor Cost $245.000,00 $276.000,00
Less Maintenance Cost $60.000,00 $52.000,00
Less Overhead Cost $60.000,00 $78.000,00
EBITDA $542.200,00 $371.600,00
$1,300,000 : 7 years $750,000 : 7 years
Less Depreciation
$185.714,29 $107.142,86
EBIT $356.485,71 $264.457,14
Less Tax (40%) $142.594,29 $105.782,86
NPAT $213.891,43 $158.674,29
Add Depreciation $185.714,29 $107.142,86
Annual Cash Flow $399.605,71 $265.817,14
2. Capital Budgetting Method
Methods Dakota Nakoi
A Innitial Investment (a) $1.300.000,00 $750.000,00
Annual Cashflow (b) $399.605,71 $265.817,14
Payback Period (a/b) 3,25 years 2,82 years
Book Value = Residual Asset / Salvage Value –
B Year Net Income Book Value Year Net Income Book Value
Depreciation
1 $213.891,43 $1.114.285,71 1 $158.674,29 $642.857,14
2 $213.891,43 $928.571,43 2 $158.674,29 $535.714,29
3 $213.891,43 $742.857,14 3 $158.674,29 $428.571,43
4 $213.891,43 $557.142,86 4 $158.674,29 $321.428,57
5 $213.891,43 $371.428,57 5 $158.674,29 $214.285,71
6 $213.891,43 $185.714,29 6 $158.674,29 $107.142,86
7 $213.891,43 $0,00 7 $158.674,29 $0,00
Average Net Income (c) $213.891,43 $158.674,29
Average Book Value (d) $650.000,00 $375.000,00
Average Accounting Rate of Return (AARR)
32,91% 42,31%
(c/d)
E PI = 1,39 PI = 1,51
Nakoi ranks at #1 after winning 4 indicators (Payback Period, AARR, IRR and PI), while Dakota ranks #2 with higher NPV.
Another point of Nakoi is lower initial investment cost, therefore Nakoi9s PI is higher.
4. Do the techniques rank project the
same? If not, why do the rankings differ?
The techniques do not perform the same rank to capital budgeting decision, ie. IRR vs NPV and NPV
vs PI.
IRR and NPV have different ranking for the plywood presses. Nakoi wins IRR while Dakota takes
higher NPV.
NPV is used to analyze the profitability of a projected investment (NPV = present value of cash inflows –
present value of cash outlays). NPV is used when cash flows are inconsistent and to evaluate long-term
projects.
IRR is used to estimate the profitability of a potential investment (IRR = zero net present value in a
discount rate flow analysis). IRR is used to evaluate short-term projects.
Dakota's higher NPV is triggered by high terminal cash flow at Year 7 (residual at 30% of initial
investment while Nakoi's residual at only 10%) while annual operating cash flow is not impacting
much (Dakota : Nakoi = 3 : 2 against initial investment Dakota : Nakoi = 2 : 1).
5. Positioning of Payback Period and
Average Accounting Rate of Return
Methods (AARR)
Dakota Nakoi
Simple and Easy Math No factor of Time Value of Money into calculation.
Can help small business with limited and shorter funds for
Payback Period investment. Flat annual cash inflows.
Method
Helps in reducing the risk of losses. No take the cash inflows after the payback period.
Helps in evaluating project quickly.
Only based on accounting numbers. No Time Value of Money takes into calculation.
AARR Method Easy to calculate and simple to understand. Ignore cashflow from investment.
Based on accounting book profit / earnings. Ignore terminal value of the project.
6. Jonas and Parker have discussions on
Net Present Value (NPV) and Internal
Rate of Return (IRR).
a) The meaning of NPV and IRR.
IRR is used to estimate the profitability of potential investments, while NPV is the
difference between the present value of cash inflows and the present value of cash
outflows over a period of time.
IRR uses NPV at zero value to balance the minimum required rate to pay off initial
investment (cash outlays) within agreed period of time, while NPV is calculating the
operating cash flow with acceptable market return rate as discounted rate over the period to
determine the present value and deducted with initial investment fund. If NPV results to
above 1.0 or positive figure, then the project is acceptable.
2 Considers all cash flows of entire projects. Difficulty to determine the required rate of return.
3 Assists the selection of projects that fit the budget Too optimistic projections.
4 Easy to understand. Not factoring in the opportunity cost.
8. Parker surely takes the cash flow projection and estimation seriously,
accuracy on assumption and accounting value will trigger the close-to-
reality projection and will reduce the financial risk incurred, especially
the capital budget and cash flow cycle to finance the liquidity and fix to
payback period to avoid any additional cost.
Parker will be following below steps for cash flow projection accuracy:
a) Estimate the annual operating cash inflows and incremental cash flow, assuming the increasing production capacity,
reducing scrap products, efficiency of new machines, surge market sales.
b) Fulfillment cash flow is including net future cash flows to be accounted in, discounting with expected return rate, and explicit
risk adjustment. Net future cash flow usually comprises of explicit, current, unbiased and probability weighted estimate of the
future cash outflows and inflows.
c) Estimate the Year 7 after-tax final value of sold new assets as terminal cash flow.
d) Set the desired payback period to assure the remaining life time of investment will be revenue generator, no more investment
payback.
e) Set the desired market rate of return as benchmark for internal rate of return and accounting rate of return for project
evaluation.
f) Perform the auditing and financial review process on stages during the projects against actual, to get the insights, control the
budget and assure the cash flow in place.
9. a) No "unbiased" forecast are associated into future cash flow
estimation, and this was found by auditor that predicted cash flows were
less than the actual cash flows, this resulted to inaccuracy cash flow
projection.
We are surprised on the statement by auditor of "projected cash flows were lower than actual without unbiased factors", which usually
the event should be contrary.
Please find below conditions / assumptions that might happen with no unbiased factors in the projection:
Condition 1: Projected cash flows usually would be Condition 2: Projected cash flows were
above than actual. lower than actual (post audit9s findings).
Flat, stabile and constant accounting figures, ie. Production Incremental of manufacture and market activities, ie. arise on
capacity, labor cost, overhead and maintenance cost, selling selling price, increasing production capacity and outputs to
a. price, etc., which do not reflect the reality in case over the period respond increasing demand / market, new machines provide
of 7-years. lower labor cost and lower maintenance cost.
Straight-line depreciation throughout the 7-years, this has Longer time horizon of project of 7-years (14% annual rate) while
shortened the pay-back period, while in real case, depreciation the machinery usually has time frames of depreciation at 5 years
b. will be enlarged in the first some years to accommodate book (20% rate). And if accounting book is referring to 5-year
value trend. depreciation rate, then actual cash flow might be above than
estimation.
c. No inflation rate is attached. Conservative projection at the beginning.
There is no capital structure accounted as the fund source of Possibility lower the cost of capital, either because of low real
investment, neither from the long- term debt nor from the equity. riskless rates, low inflation, low betas, or low risk premiums, the
d. This will generate the interest, although interest payment is larger the value consequence of assuming an permanent omitted
excluded from operating cash flow. This cost of capital will downside.
determine the feasibility of project through IRR calculation.
Time value of money factor has taken place on the NPV and Efficiency takes place, resulting to lower material cost and lower
e. some applied techniques. overhead cost.
A firm will lose another investment opportunity, in the regards of investment fund. Company will focus
on selected investment project with the limited fund to cover the certain period of payback. If projected
I
cash flow is lower, then payback period is longer and company will hold another investment. This is
mutually exclusive investment.
A firm might prolong the depreciation period to coupe with projected cash flow. This would render to
II
higher actual cash flow with shorter depreciated accounting book.
Lower cash flow projection would reflect to be reducing business activities, ie block the new launched
II products, numbers of purchased material (opportunity cash flow = discount supplier rate), new market
opening, etc.
10. Respond to Parker9s capital
budgeting procedures:
What? Why?
Like:
Parker preferred using simple and easy to understand
Simple method will prompt the decision-making process.
methods on investment decision making.
AARR and Payback Period techniques are adequate to see
Parker9s favorite methods were AARR and Payback Period. the eligibility of project for required settlement period and
desired return rate (investment9s yield).
a) Parker should apply discounted cash flow into capital budgeting, to determine the value of an
investment based on its future cash flows. This will calculate the present value of expected
future cash flows using a discount rate. If the output is above the current cost of investment,
the result is positive.
b) Higher volatile future cash flows will determine higher discount rate to produce capital
budgeting.
c) To count in the residual asset turnover / salvage value (as terminal cash flow) at the end of
time frame will add the present value of cash inflow.
d) The relevant and simple techniques are NPV (for amount output), IRR (for rate of return) and/
or Discounted Payback Period (for required period).
12. Recommendation was NAKOI.
Points on Dakota Points on Nakoi
a) Competitive advantages: a) Competitive advantages:
- higher production rate (7,000 units per day), - Lower initial investment (~58% to Dakota's investment).
- lower labor cost ($35 per unit vs Nakoi's $46), - Lower maintenance cost (Japan's product).
- a bit higher maintenance cost (due to high price, USA Note:
product),
- lower overhead cost, as easier to operate, - Durability and product quality are assumed acceptable on
the same review period of 7 years and same selling price.
- higher residual asset sale (30% on initial price vs Nakoi9s - Inefficiency and salvage value have been taken into account
10%). under expenses / cost.
b) Higher NPV at $509,143 (33% higher than Nakoi's). b) Capital budgeting techniques:
Generally, people will see NPV as superior technique to - Shorter payback period (2.82 years against Dakota's 3.25
determine investment decision and believe higher NPV years).
would fulfil the main purpose of corporate which is to - Higher AARR and IRR (42% and 30%) than Nakoi's (33%
maximize the shareholders9 value / wealth. and 26%).
- Higher Profitability Index PI at 1.51x (compared to Nakoi's
1.39x).
Notes taken:
• Briefly, Dakota9s performance is better and higher than Nakoi9s, except investment Dakota took 73%
higher than Nakoi.Dakota's net income is 35% higher than Nakoi9s; cash flow is 50% higher; NPV is
33% higher, and Net Cash Flow (= Initial cash flow + Operational cash flow + Terminal cash flow) is
59% higher.
• Ratio to investment exhibits Nakoi higher than Dakota.For example, Dakota's net income to investment
is 16%, while Nakoi9s is 21%.
Nakoi Unit
Days
6.000
240
6.000
240
6.000
240
6.000
240
6.000
240
6.000
240
6.000
240
Price $1,80 $1,87 $1,95 $2,02 $2,11 $2,19 $2,28
Sales revenue $2.592.000 $2.695.680 $2.803.507 $2.915.647 $3.032.273 $3.153.564 $3.279.707
Material cost 72% 72% 72% 72% 72% 72% 72%
Less COGS ($1.866.240) ($1.940.890) ($2.018.525) ($2.099.266) ($2.183.237) ($2.270.566) ($2.361.389)
Gross profit $725.760 $754.790 $784.982 $816.381 $849.037 $882.998 $918.318
Less labor cost ($276.000) ($287.040) ($298.522) ($310.462) ($322.881) ($335.796) ($349.228)
Less maintenance cost ($52.000) ($54.080) ($56.243) ($58.493) ($60.833) ($63.266) ($65.797)
Less overhead cost ($78.000) ($81.120) ($84.365) ($87.739) ($91.249) ($94.899) ($98.695)
EBITDA $319.760 $332.550 $345.852 $359.687 $374.074 $389.037 $404.598
New assets $750.000
Depreciated years 7
Less depreciation ($107.143) ($107.143) ($107.143) ($107.143) ($107.143) ($107.143) ($107.143)
EBIT $212.617 $225.408 $238.710 $252.544 $266.931 $281.894 $297.456
Less tax 40% ($85.047) ($90.163) ($95.484) ($101.017) ($106.772) ($112.758) ($118.982)
NPAT $127.570 $135.245 $143.226 $151.526 $160.159 $169.136 $178.473
Add depreciation $107.143 $107.143 $107.143 $107.143 $107.143 $107.143 $107.143
Annual cash flow $234.713 $242.387 $250.369 $258.669 $267.302 $276.279 $285.616
Continued on next paged…
13. Some parameters were revised by
Parker to adjust the capital budgeting
into the market.
a. Cash flow projection