Chapter Three: Baseline and Targets

Introduction
Baseline and Targets
• To effectively gauge changes in aspects of performance that objectives of
the project, project developer or implementer requires the use of baselines
and targets.
• In order to understand where we, as project managers, are going, we need
to understand where we have been.
• Establishing quality baselines and setting ambitious, yet achievable, targets
are essential for the successful management of foreign assistance programs.
Objectives of the Chapter
After studying this chapter, your are able to;
• Define what is project baseline and project performance targets
• Distinguish the difference between baseline and targets

• Explain project baselines settings and establish targets

• Understand why project baselines and targets
Contents
Chapter Three: Baseline and Performance Targets
3.1. Baseline and benchmark
3.2. The importance of the baselines and targets
3.3. How to set baselines and targets
3.4. Factors to Consider When Selecting Performance Targets
Definitions
• A baseline is the value of a performance indicator before the
implementation of projects or activities, while a target is the specific,
planned level of result to be achieved within an explicit timeframe.
• A baseline is the value of a performance indicator before the
implementation of projects or activities, while a target is the specific,
planned level of result to be achieved within an explicit timeframe.
• Targets are set for indicators at the Assistance Objective (AO), Intermediate
Result (IR), and output levels
Activity 1: WHY ARE BASELINES IMPORTANT?
 WHY ARE BASELINES IMPORTANT?...Cont’d
• Baselines help managers determine progress in achieving outputs and
outcomes.
• They also help identify the extent to which change has happened at
each level of result.
• Lack of baseline data not only presents challenges for management
decision-making purposes, but also hinders evaluation efforts
 Establishing Baselines
1. BASELINE IS ESTABLISHED
If baseline data exist prior to the start of a project or activity, additional
data collected over the life of the project must be collected in a
consistent manner in order to facilitate comparisons. For example,
consider the drop-out rate for girls 16 and under.
 Establishing Baselines
2. BASELINES MUST BE COLLECTED
In cases where there are no existing data with which to establish a
baseline, project owner and/or its implementing partners will have to
collect it if the required data are not already being collected by, for
example, a host-country government, an international organization, or
another donor.
 Establishing Baselines
3. BASELINES ARE ESTABLISHED ON A ROLLING BASIS
In some cases, it is possible to collect baseline data on a rolling basis as
implementation proceeds. For example, imagine that a health project is being
rolled out sequentially across three provinces over a three-year period.

Data collected in the first province will serve as baseline for Year One; data
collected in the second province will serve as baseline for the second province
in Year Two; and data collected in the third province will serve as baseline for
that province in Year Three.
 Establishing Baselines
4. BASELINE IS ZERO
For some indicators, baselines will be zero. For example, if a new program
focuses on building the teaching skills of teachers, the baseline for the
indicator “the number of teachers trained” is zero.
Example of baselines established…
Target Setting
Target setting is the final step in building the performance framework. It,
in turn, is based on outcomes, indicator.
A target is “ . . . a specified objective that indicates the number, timing and
location of that which is to be realized”
One method to establish targets is to start with the baseline indicator
level, and include the desired level of improvement (taking into
consideration available resources over a specific time period, for example,
24–36 months), to arrive at the performance target.
In so doing, the starting point will be known, as will the available
resources to make progress toward that target over a particular period of
time. This will give the target performance.
Activity 2: Please list some reasons why we set project Target
Why Project Performance Target?
• They help justify a program by describing in concrete terms what the project will produce.
• Targets orient stakeholders to the tasks to be accomplished and motivate individuals
involved in a program to do their best to ensure the targets are met
• Targets also help to establish clear expectations for project staff, implementing partners, and
key stakeholders.
• Targets promote transparency and accountability by making available information on
whether results have been achieved or not over time.
Target Setting
• Targets should be realistic, evidence-based, and ambitious.

• Setting meaningful targets provides staff, implementing partners, and

stakeholders with benchmarks to document progress toward achieving
results.
• Targets need to take into account program resources, the implementation
period, and the development hypothesis implicit in the results framework.
Target Setting…Cont’d
A. Historical Trends:

Perhaps even more important than examining a single baseline value, is

understanding the underlying historical trend in the indicator value over time.
What pattern of change has been evident in the past five to ten years on the
performance indicator? Is there a trend, upward or downward, that can be
drawn from existing reports, records, or statistics?
Target Setting…Cont’d
B. Expert Judgments:
• Another option is to solicit expert opinions as to what is possible or feasible
with respect to a particular indicator and country setting.
• Experts should be knowledgeable about the program area as well as local
conditions.
• Experts will be familiar with what is and what is not possible from a technical
and practical standpoint – an important input for any target-setting exercise.
Target Setting…Cont’d
C. Research Findings
• Similarly, reviewing development literature, especially research and
evaluation findings, may help in choosing realistic targets.
• In some program areas, such as population and health, extensive research
findings on development trends are already widely available and what is
possible to achieve may be well-known. In other areas, such as democracy,
research on performance indicators and trends may be scarce
Target Setting…Cont’d
D. Stakeholder Expectations
• While targets should be defined on the basis of an objective assessment of
what can be accomplished given certain conditions and resources, it is useful
to get input from stakeholders regarding what they want, need, and expect
• Soliciting expectations may involve formal interviews, rapid appraisals, or
informal conversations.
Target Setting…Cont’d
E. Achievement of Similar Programs
• Benchmarking is the process of comparing or checking the progress of other
similar programs.
Factors to Consider When Selecting Performance
Targets
There are a number of important factors to consider when selecting
performance indicator targets.
One factor is the importance of taking baselines seriously. There must be a
clear understanding of the baseline starting point; for example, an average
of the last three years’ performance, last year’s performance, average
trend, data over the past six months, and so forth.
In other words, previous performance should be considered in projecting
new performance targets. One might observe how an organization or
policy has performed over the previous few years before projecting future
performance targets
Another consideration in setting targets is the expected funding and
resource levels—existing capacity, budgets, personnel, funding resources,
facilities, and the like—throughout the target period. This can include
internal funding sources as well as external funding from bilateral and
multilateral donors.

Targets should be feasible given all of the resource considerations as well

as organizational capacity to deliver activities and outputs.

Most targets are set annually, but some could be set quarterly. Others
could be set for longer periods. However, setting targets more than three
to four years forward is not advisable. There are too many unknowns and
risks with respect to resources and inputs to try to project target
performance beyond three to four years. In short, be realistic when setting

targets.
The political nature of the process also comes into play. Political concerns
are important. What has the government or administration promised to
deliver? Citizens have voted for a particular government based on
articulated priorities and policies that need to be recognized and
legitimized in the political process. Setting targets is part of this political
process, and there will be political ramifications for either meeting or not
meeting targets.
Flexibility is important in setting targets because internal or external
resources may be cut or otherwise diminished during budgetary cycles.
Reorientation of the program, retraining of staff, and reprioritization of the

work may be required. This is an essential aspect of public management.

Finally, it is also important to be aware of the political games that are
sometimes played when setting targets. For example, an organization may
set targets so modest or easily achieved that they will surely be met.
Another game that is often played in bureaucracies is to move the target
as needed to fit the performance goal. Moving targets causes problems
because indicator trends can no longer be discerned and measured. In
other cases, targets may be chosen because they are not politically

sensitive.
Chapter Summary
In this chapter, we have studied that a baseline is the value of a performance
indicator before the implementation of projects or activities, while a target is
the specific, planned level of result to be achieved within an explicit
timeframe.
It is very crucial to set both the baselines and target before implementing
the project and serves as a good tool for project M & E.

.
Chapter Summary Review Questions.

1. Distinguish the difference between project baselines and project

performance targets?

2. Discuss why baselines and targets?

3. Take one example of a education project and show example of project
baseline and target
Thank you