Forecasting

Forecasting is the process of predicting what will happen in the future. Almost every plan involves
forecasts of some sort. The economist regularly report forecasts of economic conditions interest
rates, unemployment, and trade deficits. among other issues. There are some based on qualitative
forecasting. Qualitative forecasting uses experts opinions to predict the future. Also it is involved to
use mathematical models and statistical analysis of historical data and surveys to predict the future
events.

Qualitative methods of demand forecasting include:

1. Expert opinion — where experts in the industry are consulted to give their opinions and
insights about the market trends and potential changes in demand.
2. Market research — involves collecting data through surveys, focus groups, and
other market research techniques to gain insights into consumer behavior and preferences.
3. Delphi method — a structured process involving a group of experts providing their
opinions anonymously and refining their predictions through several rounds of feedback.
Quantitative methods of demand forecasting include:
1. Time series analysis — involves analyzing historical sales data to identify trends
and patterns and then using this information to predict future demand.
2. Regression analysis — involves analyzing the relationship between demand and other
variables such as price, advertising, and seasonality to forecast future markets.
3. Econometric models — complex statistical models that use historical data and
economic indicators to forecast future demand.
By combining these qualitative and quantitative methods, organizations can make informed
and data-driven decisions about future market events and adjust their
business strategies accordingly.
In conclusion, demand forecasting is a crucial tool for businesses to plan and
allocate resources effectively, and using qualitative and quantitative methods can help improve
the forecasts’ accuracy and reliability.
Contingency Planning

It identifies alternative courses of action that can be implemented to meet the needs of changing
circumstances. Although it is not possible for anyone to predict when things will go wrong, it can
be expected that they will. It is unlikely that any plan will ever be completely perfect. Changes will
occur in the environment. When crisis and emergencies occur, managers and the organizations
have contingency plans that are ready to be implemented. Contingency plans contain "trigger
points" that indicate when pre-selected alternative plans should be activated.

A contingency plan can be divided into three main sections:

1. Basic plan: The basic plan provides an overview of the institution or company’s
approach to emergency operations and describes the purpose, scope, and general
emergency coordination (information and communication, finance, logistics, etc.).
2. Contingency-specific responses: This section describes the best and worst scenarios
for the contingencies prioritized, establishes early warning indicators and triggers, and
defines the resources and functions required for particular hazards.
3. Emergency support functions: This section describes the expected mission execution
for various functions (e.g. communication, finance, IT, marketing, etc.) and identifies
tasks assigned to the person responsible in each case.
Scenario Planning
It involves identifying several alternative future scenarios that may occur. Plans are then made to
deal with each scenario as it occurs.

For example, the Heart and Stroke Foundation of Ontario set out to design a new model for the
health care funding, they wanted to challenge the organization to think in different ways about the
future. The scenario planning process benefited them by helping the board and other invited
experts to rehearse strategic development plans and tactics in five different realistic scenarios.
Benchmarking
It is a technique that uses external comparisons to better evaluate one's current performances and
identify possible actions for the future. The purpose of it is to find out what other people and
organizations are doing well at and plan how to incorporate these ideas into one's own operations.
One of the benchmarking techniques are used to search for best practices. Best practices are things
that lead to superior performance. It is considered that the best run organizations also emphasize
internal benchmarking that encourages all members and work units to learn and improve by sharing
one another's best practices.
The difference between competitive benchmarking and competitor analysis
Although similar in approach, competitive benchmarking and competitor analysis serve two
distinct purposes:
• Competitive analysis, or competitive research, is a method that allows you to get a detailed
overview of each competitor. It is a way of scrutinizing competitors’ strategies and tactics -
from messaging to SEO practices - to get insights into their day-to-day operations.
• Competitive benchmarking, on the other hand, provides a helicopter view of your
competitive landscape. Think of it as a high-level approach to evaluating competitors’ long-
term strategies, where you try to gather insights into their performance over time and
pinpoint overall market trends.

• Process benchmarking helps you understand your internal processes and increase their
efficacy by examining how your competitors go about a given business process. This is
what Harvard Business Review described in Xerox’s case study, where the company tried
to look into their Japanese counterparts’ operational processes to optimize costs and
product pricing.
• Strategic benchmarking is aimed at comparing business models and approaches to
amplify business strategies. For instance, an upcoming coffee shop chain could try to
emulate Starbucks’s overwhelming success by getting a better understanding of its winning
business model.
• Performance benchmarking is all about measuring strategy outcomes - from competitors’
traffic generation strategies to their social media performance.
Use of Staff Planners
Staff planners are employed to help coordinate planning for the organization as a whole or for one
of its major components. They help bring focus and energy to accomplish important planning
tasks. A risk involved is a tendency for a communication gap to develop between the staff planners
and line managers. Everyone must work closely together, the resulting plans may be inadequate
and people may lack commitment to implement the plans no matter who good they are.

1. Determine your organization’s goals

Set clear, quantifiable goals that align with your organization’s strategic objectives and workforce planning. This might
entail growth targets, productivity benchmarks, or specific project outcomes and address current and future staffing needs and
challenges. A clear understanding of what you aim to achieve will guide your subsequent steps.

2. Assess the current workforce

Once your goals are in place, assess your current workforce’s capacity to meet those objectives. Analyze the composition
of your existing workforce in terms of roles, skills, performance, and potential.

Conducting a skills gap analysis is crucial to identify the difference between your workforce’s skills and the skills needed to
achieve your goals. This snapshot of the competencies your organization lacks can then be captured in your staffing planning and
addressed through targeted hiring or employee development.

3. Determine staffing needs

Use your goals and the data from your workforce and skills gap analysis to determine your specific staffing needs. Here,
you need to define the number of employees required, the types of roles needed, and the specific skill sets these roles demand.

In this phase, using a roles and responsibilities template can be useful. A well-structured template will help you clearly
define the expected responsibilities, skills, and qualifications for each role. This makes it easier to identify your staffing needs and
communicate them effectively to potential candidates.

4. Consider external factors

What industry trends, economic conditions, and labor market dynamics could impact your planning? For example, a tight
labor market or new regulatory changes might affect the availability of certain skill sets, impacting your staffing strategy.

5. Develop staffing strategies

With a clear understanding of your staffing needs and the external landscape, you can now develop your staffing
strategies. Will you meet your staffing needs by hiring new employees, upskilling current employees, or even using contingent
labor, for example?

At this stage, you will be identifying the best channels for reaching potential candidates, such as job boards, or
professional networking sites. You will need to develop clear and compelling job descriptions based on your roles and
responsibilities templates and plan out your interview and selection process.

6. Implement and monitor

Implementing your staffing strategies does not mean the work is over. It’s critical to monitor your staffing plan’s
effectiveness. Adjust it as necessary to respond to changing circumstances or unexpected challenges.
 Participative planning
Includes, in all planning steps, the people who will be affected by the plans and/or who will be
asked to help implement them. This process brings many benefits to the organization.
Participation can increase creativity and information available for planning. Also, it increases the
understanding and acceptance of plans, along with commitment to their success. Although its
takes a long time, it can improve results by improving implementation. All employees participate in
the planning process and are regularly updated about the company's program towards its goal.