Probability

Definitions

(i) Trial and Event: In the theory of probability an experiment is

called as 'Trial' and its outcome is called as an 'Event or
Case'.
Example: Throwing a Coin is an experiment/trial and getting
Head or Tail is outcome/event.
The events are generally denoted by A, B, C, etc.
The experiments where the results may be altogether different
even though they are performed under identical conditions are
called as 'Random Experiments'.
(ii) Equally Likely: The outcomes of a trial are said to be equally
likely if anyone of them cannot be expected to occur in
preference to another
Example: Getting a Head or a Tail, if an unbiased coin is thrown.
(iii) Mutually Exclusive: The events are said to be mutually
exclusive if the happening of an event excludes the happening of
all other events i.e. the events cannot happen simultaneously in
a single trial.
The events A and B are mutually exclusive if A
Example: Getting 1 at uppermost face excludes the Occurrence
of 2, 3, 4 etc. automatically in a throw of a die.
These events can be connected by the words "either..or". Thus A,
B, C are mutually exclusive if either A or B or C can occur.
(iv) Exhaustive: All possible outcomes of a trial form exhaustive
sets of cases or events.
Example : Events of Head and Tail, Appearance of 1, 2, 3, 4, 5
and 6 in a throw of a die ,Similarly if two coins are tossed, the
events (H,H), (H,T). (T,H) and (T,T) are exhaustive events.
(v)Sample Space: A set of all possible outcomes of a trial which are
exhaustive is called a sample space ,denoted by S and each outcome
is called a sample point
Example: In case of tossing a coin once, the sample space is S = {H,T).
(vi) Independent and Dependent Events: The events are said to be
independent evevts if the happening or not happening of an event
does not depend on the occurrence or non-occurrence of other
events.
If the happening of an event is affected by the occurrence of
others, the events are called as dependent events.
Example: If two Card are drawn successively from a well shuffled
pack without replacement, then getting say a king at a second draw
will depend upon the result of the first draw. Thus these are
dependent events. However, if the first card is replaced, then getting
a king in second draw is independent of the first draw.
(vii)Simple and Compound Events: When two or more events occur in
connection with each other, the simultaneous occurrence is called as a
compound event.
Example: when a die is thrown, getting '3 or 4' is a compound event.
On other hand, In case of simple events we consider the probability of the
happening or not happening of a single event only.
Example : getting 3 for a die.
(viii) Probability: If a trial results in n exhaustive cases which are mutually
exclusive and equally likely and out of which m are favourable to the happening
of event A, then the probability p of the happening of event A is given by,
p = P(A) = m/n
Example: Probability of getting a king when a card is drawn from a well-
shuffled pack. Here A Event of getting a king.
m = No. of favourable outcomes = 4 and n =Total No. of possible outcomes = 52
P(A) = m/n=4/52=1/13
 
 Result
(1) If denotes the non-happening of A, then its probability
q = P) = = 1- = 1-P(A)
Example: Probability of not getting a king is P() =1- P(A) =1-1/13
= 12/13

Thus, P(A)+ P() = p +q = 1

(2) Probability of an event lies between 0 and 1

0 ≤ P A) ≤ 1
If an event A is certain to occur then P(A) = 1 then
 Addition Theorem

If A and B are any two events then

P(AB) = P (A + B) = P(A) + P(B) - P(AB)
Example: P(King or Heart Card) = P(King)+P(Heart) - P(King and
heart) =
If A and B are mutually exclusive events then
P (AB) = P(A) +P (B) since AB=
Example: P (King or Queen) = P (King)+P (Queen) = =
here P (AB) = 0.
Similarly, for three events A, B and C we have,
P (AUBUC) = P(A) + P(B) + P(C) - P(AB) - P(BC) - P(CA) + P(ABC)
Now, if A1, A2, A3...An are mutually exclusive events then,
P(A1UA2UA3.. UAn) = P (A1) + P (A2) + + P (An)
Theorem on Compound Probability or Multiplication Theorem
For dependent events A and B, the probability of their simultaneous
occurrence is
P(A and B) = P (AB) = P (A) x P (B/A) = P (B) x P (A/B)
where, P (B/A) called as the conditional probability, implies the probability
of occurrence of event B given that the event A has already occurred.
P (A/B) called as the conditional probability, implies the
probability of occurrence of event A given that the event B has already
occurred.
For independent events A and B P (B/A) = P (B) or P (A/B) = P (A) hence
P (A and B) = P (AB) = P (A) x P (B)
Similarly, for three events A, B, and C
P(ABC) = P (A) P (B/A) P (C/AB)
and if A, B and C are independent then
P(ABC) = P(A). P (B). P (C)
 Bayes' Theorem
If A1, A2,…. Ak ..., An are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive events and B is any other
event that occurs in conjunction with events A1,
A2 , ... ,An
Then, P(Ak/B)=
 
Hence, for three such events A1, A2, A3
P(A1/B) =
=
 List of Formula

(1) p =P(A) =

P(not A) = P( = 1- P(A) = 1-p

 
(2) Theorems:
(a) Addition Theorem:
P(A or B) = P(AUB) = P(A)+ P(B)- P(AB)
=P(A) + P(B) ,for Mutually Exclusive Events
PAUBUC)= P(A) + P(B) + P(C)- P(AB) - P(BC)- P(AC)+P(AB
= P(A)+P(B) P(C) , for Mutually Exclusive Events
In general, 'or' implies Addition of probabilities for mutually exclusive events.
(b) Compound Probability Theorem:
P(A and B) = P(AB) = P(A) P(B/A) = P(B) P(A/B)
P(B/A) = and P(A/B)=
For Independent Events:
P(AB) PA) P (B)
In general, 'and ' implies Multiplication of probabilities for independent events.
 
 
P(Happening of at least one of A1, A2,---,An)=
1-P (Happening of none of A1, A2 ... An)
4 ) Bayes' Theorem:
P(P(Ak/B)=
=

(5) n!= nx (n-1) x (n -2) x... 3x2x1

0! = 1, n! = n (n -1)!
 (6)  
.= 1 and = n