Professional Documents
Culture Documents
1
Big Picture: Finding Investments That Reduce CO2
Emissions
1. The climate crisis represents an outsized threat to humanity.
2. The climate crisis is caused by greenhouse gasses, which trap heat in the atmosphere. 76% of global greenhouse
emissions is carbon dioxide.
3. ⅓ of carbon dioxide emissions in the US is from electricity, as ⅔ of US electricity is from burning fossil fuels.
Another ⅓ of US CO2 emissions is from transportation such as freight, shipping and flights.
4. One big sector USV can invest in is companies that help move us to 100% renewable energy or become carbon
neutral to reduce or remove CO2 trapping heat in the earth’s atmosphere.
2
Looking for USV-style networks in the green energy space
This is for SURE a network-styled market
Thesis 2.0 Less obvious network effects Energy and storage marketplaces, demand response
Thesis 3.0 Trusted brands Carbon offsets are a high confusion market with a trust gap
4
Focus areas that potentially seem most interesting
Category Customer Reason
Clean energy suppliers Residential, ● It’s a software-defined network that moves bits and $ as well as e -
Commercial ● There is a network effect where the more EUM, the better the company can move $ and e -
● Adoption is bottom-up
● By leading with savings and simplicity, can reach users beyond those who care about green energy
● It’s set and forget, once you have customers you have them
● It’s a low trust space with an entrypoint for a high trust brand
Virtual Power Plants Commercial ● It’s a software-defined network that moves bits and $ as well as e -
● There is a network effect where the more EUM, the better the company can move $ and e -
● The product is useful in single-player mode and powerful in multiplayer network mode
● If positioned as a savings/revenue product, can reach beyond those who care about green energy
● Large impact by going through big energy-consuming buildings
Automatic Demand Response Commercial ● Can be built in a software-only way. It’s a software-defined network that moves bits and $ as well as e -
Residential ● There is a network effect where the more EUM, the better the company can move $ and e -
● The product is useful in single-player mode and powerful in multiplayer network mode
● If positioned as a savings/revenue product, can reach beyond those who care about green energy
Group PPA Buying Commercial ● Physical same-grid PPAs are actually impactful in changing the makeup of the power grid
● Today PPAs are only accessible to large corporations because they are custom contracts
● Group PPA buying is an emerging behavior and a platform could broaden access to that
● PPAs are a growing market because of increased demand from enterprises for clean energy
Carbon Markets That Expand Consumer ● Carbon offset purchasing is a high confusion space with an entry point for a high trust brand
Offset Supply Commercial ● Software-based verification can increase the amount of trust and transparency
● Software-based verification lowers the cost of verifying a project, so it makes it possible for new types of carbon sequestering behaviors to occur
(such as individual farmers changing their practices)
● Voluntary offset purchasing is a growing market as more companies and individuals want to offset
● There are no gatekeepers in the voluntary offset market so new companies can lead the charge
Consumer offset subscription Consumer ● There is no clear answer for consumers how to offset their emissions, one brand could build that
● It’s set and forget, once you have customers you have them
● It’s a low trust space with an entrypoint for a high trust brand 5
Basic Power Flow
Delivered
Traditional Energy through
Wholesale
Generators power grid,
Energy Market
run by utility
cos
Day Ahead
Suppliers bid on
Market
energy day
ahead, and
deliver it through
Imbalance (aka
utility company
Day Of) Market
to buildings
Renewable energy
generators also generate
Renewable Energy Renewable Energy
Generators Certificates 6
Table of Contents
Renewable Energy and Carbon Market sections refer to voluntary markets, not compliance markets.
7
Renewable Energy Market Map
8
Themes We’ve Run Across In Renewable Energy
1. Buying renewable power is a high-confusion market with a real opportunity to build a trusted voice/brand
2. The grid is on a path towards greater decentralization where electricity is created everywhere and flows of
power are bidirectional.
3. There are electrons AND bits in these systems. It is about the energy transmission itself but also about moving
money and data (bits).
4. Energy storage is the holy grail for renewables and a more decentralized grid but it is prohibitively expensive
today.
5. Even in deregulated markets, utilities still have a monopoly on transmission and utilities can slow down a
process in changes to electricity flow in any grid.
6. In retail electricity, it may be beneficial to position a renewable product as a savings or convenience product
than an impact product where the product will be niche and nice-to-have.
9
Sell Back Negawatts (Power that wasn’t used)
Bi-directional
Behind-The-Meter
Manage the energy use of the building
One-Way Flow of Power
Electricity Traders
Financial players buying and selling electricity for arbitrage
Electricity Markets
10
Markets connecting generators to energy buyers either for spot or long term power purchasing agreements
US Voluntary Renewable Energy Market Overview
11
The price of solar and wind in US has fallen by 90%+ in
40yrs
12
And that is driving exponential growth in deployment
13
There are many ways to buy renewable energy
25% of all renewables buying is voluntary, 75% is compliance by utilities to meet Renewable Portfolio Standards (RPS).
Commercial buying makes up 68% of $ but 4% of customers. Residential is 32% of sales but 96% of customers.
Unbundled RECs Sales of unbundled RECs (just the RECs, not the power) Mostly commercial 51.7 M 192 K
Power Purchase Agreement Long term one-off purchasing contract with renewable Commercial 21 M 273
generator
Competitive Suppliers Non-utility energy suppliers like Arcadia and Drift All 18 M 1.7 M
Community Choice Municipality-run electricity supplier where municipality Mostly residential, small 8.9 M 2.7 M
Aggregation chooses where to buy power commercial
Utility Green Pricing Utility sells RECs to users through added fee on utility Residential, small 8.9 M 885 K
Programs bill commercial
Utility Renewable Contracts Long term green power purchasing with utility acting as Commercial 2.8 M 15
broker of long term bilateral contract
15
16
17
Power Purchase Agreements
19
Community Choice Aggregation
● CCAs are opt-out not opt-in for customers
● Can only exist within an investor-owned utility territory
● Investor-owned utility remains responsible for
transmission and distribution
● There are 97 CCAs in 5 states: California, Illinois,
Massachusetts, New York, Ohio
● In 2017, CCAs sold 8.9 million MWh of green power to
2.7 million customers
● CCAs don’t have to procure more green power than
required by RPS
● CCAs in CA serve ~140,000 customers, compared to
~11,000 customers in MA and ~9,000 customers in IL
● Utilities don’t like CCAs, in 2010, PG&E spent $43M
lobbying against the Marin CCA 20
Community Solar
About 70% of community
solar projects operate in
states with virtual net
metering.
22
Utilities hold a monopoly on transmission
23
Carbon Offsets Market Map
24
Themes We’ve Run Across In Carbon Markets
1. Buying carbon offsets is a high confusion activity. Even knowing how much carbon you need to offset is highly
confusing. And then understanding which projects are impactful, knowing that you want carbon removals, not
offsets, where your spend is going, etc.
2. There are many ways to sequester carbon but not all of them can be verified by the big agencies today. This is an
opportunity for startups to build software-based verification mechanisms to verify new types of projects and
sell their offsets.
3. The carbon offset system is becoming bundled and more streamlined. Software-defined marketplaces are
replacing auditors, verification agencies, registries, and project planning and financing.
4. This may cause market expansion where the number of offset projects grow from today’s 2,000. There may be
opportunities for projects that serve the offset projects themselves such as equity project financing and
planning software.
5. Buying carbon offsets is a manual process without any automation (such as offset automatically every time a
book a flight ticket). 25
Traditional Stack: Lots of different players Emerging Stack: One marketplace expands supply
End Buyers and serves demand
End customer who buys and retires the offset.
End Buyers
Brokers/Services
Full-service agencies that help enterprises navigate the offset-
procuring process.
Resellers
Typically consumer retail - buys offsets and resells them
Project Developers
Farmers, organizations and project developers who build projects Project Developers 26
and sell their offsets
US Voluntary Carbon Offset Market Overview
27
Category Description #
Project Energy Efficiency improving energy efficiency or switching to cleaner fuel sources. 663
Landscape Renewable installing solar, wind, and other forms of renewable energy production. 611
Energy
Waste Disposal reducing methane emissions from landfills or wastewater, often by collecting 238
converting it to usable fuel.
2,008 projects have issued
offsets since 2005 Forestry / Land managing forests, soil, grasslands, and other land types to avoid releasing 170
Use carbon and/or increasing the amount of carbon the land absorbs.
72% of all voluntary carbon
projects are located in the top Household distributing cleaner-burning stoves or water purification devices to reduce or 161
five project-hosting countries: Devices eliminate the need to burn wood (or other inefficient types of energy).
India (442), China (426), the
United States (351), Turkey Agriculture modifying agricultural practices to reduce emissions by switching to no-till 87
(124), and Brazil (97). farming, reducing chemical fertilizer use, etc
29
Voluntary offset purchasing is growing
supply purchased
30
Prices vary, global avg price in 2018: $2.4/tCO2
31
There is so much confusion in offset purchasing.
Take a simple question: how many tons of carbon does USV need to offset for our flights in
2019?
Blue Sky Model 36 tCO2 ● How many tons of carbon do I need to offset?
No standard protocol for calculating amount of offsets to purchase
ICAO 38 tCO2
● What type of offset should I purchase?
Myclimate 87 tCO2 No easy way to understand what is the most impactful way to
spend offset $.
Cool Climate 148 tCO2
● How much should I pay? Where does the money go?
Price is determined by compliance market, where price is set by
government.
32
There is warranted low trust in the quality of offsets
● There has been some fraud amongst offset projects who sold offsets that would have been planted/built anyway,
and for projects that emitted more carbon than they sequester (see ProPublica article)
● Some people argue that carbon offsets are less impactful than just lowering carbon emissions directly (i.e. a
power plant offsetting 10% of emissions is not as impactful as actually lowering their emissions 10%)
● Also because of carbon offsets sold in such a way where 1 ton carbon offsetted is treated the same as 1 ton
carbon removed, where people in industry generally agree removing a ton of carbon from the earth’s atmosphere
is more impactful than preventing future carbon emissions and both are called carbon offsets.
33
So many middlemen, projects often keep 30% of offset price
34
EV Charging Market Map
35
EV Charging Market Map
Software Energy Network: Demand Response for a network of chargers
Hardware and Software Network: Sell chargers and create a Software Charging Network: Let EV charger owners connect
network of chargers. their EVs to a network of chargers
Software: Single or Fleet of Chargers Services (Billing, whitelabel app, energy manager, clean energy supplier/RECs)
37
The price of battery storage has dropped 85% in 10 years.
38
That is enabling EVs to take off - now 2% of all new cars sold
39
5m EVs worldwide, 1m in US, 1m in EU, 2m in China
40
Public charging stations growing, but not at pace of EVs
42
3 types of EV charging connectors, not that fragmented
1. SAE Combined Charging Solution (CCS), used by US and German car companies
2. CHAdeMO connector, used by Japanese and French car companies
3. Tesla
4. GBT, only used in China
Public charging stations usually have the 2 main connectors, or they are a Tesla station, so
not too fragmented, not too many limits on where drivers can go recharge.
43
Lots of vertical charging networks where the network
operator owns or sells the hardware.
60% of public chargers belong to one of 4 networks
(ChargePoint, Tesla, Blink, and SemaCharge)
They don’t go through the EV charging OEM, instead the EV charge point owner adds the
charger to the network. Made possible through open protocols: Open Charge Point Protocol
(OCPP) and the Open Smart Charging Protocol (OSCP).
45
There is a demand response opportunity in EV charging
Software networks can aggregate EUM (energy
under management) from EV chargers and make
revenue through grid demand response programs.
47
US grid energy storage is growing
48
Pumped hydro is the most utilized, Li-ion is fastest growing
● Pumped Hydro
● Batteries
● Compressed Air
● Flywheel
● Thermal
49
Pumped-Storage Hydro (PSH)
94% of U.S. grid energy storage is from PSH (23.6 GW), 42 PSH sites in the US
How it works:
● Water is pumped to a higher elevation for storage during low-cost energy periods
● When electricity is needed, water is released back to the lower pool, generating power through
turbines
Permit and construction takes 3-5 years each, 6-10 yrs total to build a PSH project. But then PHS plants
have long lifetimes (50-60 years). Geographically limited where PSH can be built.
Largest PSH is from 1985 in Bath County, VA, supplies 3 GW of energy to 750K homes.
Geographically limited, though you don’t need a continuously flowing source of water
50
Batteries
Price of Lithium Ion batteries ↓ 85% in 10 years, Li-ion now
makes up 80% of US large scale battery storage
How it works:
How it works:
● Air is pumped into an underground hole (usually a salt cavern) when electricity is cheap
● When energy is needed, air from the underground cave is released back into the facility, where it is
heated and the expanding of the air turns a generator.
As of June 2018, there are 4 operating CAES systems in the U.S. with a combined rated power of 0.114
GW.
There are only two operating CAES facilities: one in McIntosh, Alabama (110 MW) and one in Huntorf,
Germany.
Geographically limited
52
Thermal
Moderately to very efficient: 50% - 90% depending on the type of thermal energy used.
How it works:
● When energy is cheap, typically rocks, salt, or water are heated and kept in insulated environments.
● When energy is needed, the thermal energy is released by pumping cold water onto the hot rocks,
salts, or hot water in order to produce steam, which spins turbines.
53
Hydrogen Fuel Cells
Moderately efficient: 60% efficiency
How it works:
● Generates electricity by combining hydrogen and oxygen, produces hydrogen when electricity is
cheap, and later use that hydrogen to generate electricity
● Release no emissions (when running on pure hydrogen, the only byproduct is water)
● The process is cyclical, water produces hydrogen and oxygen and then you can use those to do
storage again
Hydrogen can also be produced by reforming biogas, ethanol, or hydrocarbons, a cheaper method that
emits carbon pollution
Requires platinum which is an expensive metal, so hydrogen fuel cells are expensive 54
Flywheels & Supercapacitors
High efficiency: between 85-87%
Used for power management rather than longer-term energy storage, not suitable for long-term energy
storage but good for load shifting / load leveling
How it works:
● Motors store energy into flywheels by accelerating their spins to very high rates (up to 50,000 rpm).
The motor can later use that stored kinetic energy to generate electricity by going into reverse
● Flywheels are commonly left in a vacuum so as to minimize air friction, which would slow the
wheel
● Supercapacitors are similar to flywheels but store power electrically (versus in flywheel stored in
kinetic energy). they store energy as a static charge. there is no chemical reaction during charging or
discharging
55
Liquified Air
● By cooling air down to -196 deg C it is turned into a compressed liquid, which can be
stored
● When ambient air is exposed to this liquid it re-gasifies and expands in volume rapidly,
rotating a turbine in the process
56
Fusion is a big part of the answer but it’s not here yet
https://continuations.com/post/190177544425/calling-all-billionaires-fund-fusion-now
57
Appendix
58
Basic Power Flow
Delivered
Traditional Energy through
Wholesale
Generators power grid,
Energy Market
run by utility
cos
Day Ahead
Suppliers bid on
Market
energy day
ahead, and
deliver it through
Imbalance (aka
utility company
Day Of) Market
to buildings
Renewable energy
generators also generate
Renewable Energy Renewable Energy
Generators Certificates 59
Notes About Basic Power Flow Diagram
By default there is no energy storage in this system so power is generated at the same time it is consumed.
Suppliers take the lowest price energy first, but they can also do bilateral trades to make an agreement with a specific
provider (Drift for instance aggregates renewable generators and then buys from them instead of taking the lowest
price).
There are two energy markets: the day ahead market bid on energy needs the day ahead and the imbalance market
where you can buy at the time you need it, it’s to fix the “imbalances” in what was purchased in the DAM versus what
is actually needed.
Once energy is put into the grid you can’t distinguish it so there’s no way to route just the clean energy to someone’s
home, once they are in the grid, the electrons are fungible.
In some states you can choose your energy supplier, in others your utility company is your energy supplier. New
retail green energy suppliers such as Arcadia buy offsets on your behalf to offset your energy usage. The idea is that
you buy energy from the grid, and then you buy the ‘greenness’ of the energy (aka you are subsidizing the green
energy) from the renewable generators via renewable energy certificates (RECs). 60
How electricity works
61
The potential for decentralized networks here
If there really is demand for renewable energy, then you can start to setup incentivized
bottoms-up networks to supply renewable energy generation and renewable energy storage.
Just like how there’s demand for file storage so there can be an incentivized network for
providing that (FileCoin), if there is demand for renewable energy, people will set up wind
farms and batteries the same way people today set up Bitcoin mining rigs and FileCoin
nodes.
Having said that, this all relies on there being demand for renewable energy and that may be
much easier to achieve with regulation than with convincing businesses and consumers to
care.
62
Smart Meter Rollout In US
63
Smart wifi-enabled thermostats in the US
64
Parts of the world that have carbon pricing (April 2019)
65
Renewable Portfolio Standards
● Mandated % of utility’s energy that must come from green power
● 29 states have RPS
● 21 states and DC’s RPS include carve outs (requirement for specific type of green
energy) or credit multipliers (a specific type of green energy counts for more units)
● 20 states and DC have cost caps for RPS to not raise prices for consumers
66