Professional Documents
Culture Documents
rate
of
return
time
Suppose we have stock A and stock B.
The returns on these stocks do not tend
to move together over time (they are
not perfectly correlated).
kA
rate
of
return
time
Suppose we have stock A and stock B.
The returns on these stocks do not tend
to move together over time (they are
not perfectly correlated).
kA
rate
of
return kB
time
What has happened to the
variability of returns for the
portfolio?
kA
rate
of
return kB
time
What has happened to the
variability of returns for the
portfolio?
kA
rate kp
of
return kB
time
Diversification
Contoh:
Unexpected changes in interest rates.
Unexpected changes in cash flows due to:
tax rate changes,
foreign competition, and
the overall business cycle.
Company-unique Risk
Company-Unique Risk adalah risiko yang
dapat dihilangkan dengan diversifikasi
Contoh:
A company’s labor force goes on strike.
A company’s top management dies in a plane crash.
A huge oil tank bursts and floods a company’s production
area.
As you add stocks to your portfolio,
company-unique risk is reduced.
portfolio
risk
company-
unique
risk
Market risk
number of stocks
6.2 Alokasi Aset dengan Dua Aset Berisiko
Imbal hasil (Return) yang diharapkan pada portofolio yang terdiri dari
dua efek
E (rp ) W1r1 W2 r2
Notes:
W1 = Proportion of funds in security 1 (Probabilitas 1)
W2 = Proportion of funds in security 2 (Probabilitas 2)
r1 = Expected return on security 1
r2 = Expected return on security 2
www,penerbitsalemba,com
6.2 Alokasi Aset dengan Dua Aset Berisiko
www,penerbitsalemba,com
6.2 Alokasi Aset dengan Dua Aset Berisiko
Perhitungan Kovarian
S
Cov(rS , rB ) p(i )[rS (i ) E (rS )][rB (i ) E (rB )]
i 1
Cov(rS , rB )
ρ SB
σS σB
Cov(rS , rB ) ρ SB σ S σ B
www,penerbitsalemba,com
Spreadsheet 6.1 Ekspektasi Pasar Modal
Contoh Kasus
Ekspektasi Pasar Modal Untuk
Reksadana Saham (Proporsi 40%) and Obligasi (Proporsi 60%)
www,penerbitsalemba,com
Spreadsheet 6.2 Varian Imbal Hasil
Contoh Kasus
Ekspektasi Pasar Modal Untuk Reksadana Saham and Obligasi
www,penerbitsalemba,com
Spreadsheet 6.3 Kinerja Portofolio
www,penerbitsalemba,com
Spreadsheet 6.4 Kovarian Imbal Hasil
S
Cov(rS , rB ) p (i )[rS (i ) E (rS )][rB (i ) E ( rB )]
i 1
Cov(rS , rB ) (Negatif)
ρ SB = -74.8 / 18.63% x 8.27% = - 0.49%
σS σB
= Artinya tidak ada hubungan antara 2 emiten,
Portofolio Efektif
www,penerbitsalemba,com
Perhitungan Capital Asset Pricing Model
(CAPM)
As you add stocks to your portfolio,
company-unique risk is reduced.
portfolio
risk
company-
unique
risk
Market risk
number of stocks
Apakah Beberapa Perusahaan Memiliki Market
Risk Yang Berbeda Dengan Yang lain?
Yes.
Misal: tingkat suku bunga tertentu berpengaruh
pada semua perusahaan dengan kondisi tertentu,
10
5
S&P 500
returns
-15 -10 -5 -5 5 10 15
-10
-15
Calculating Beta Beta = slope
XYZ Co. returns = 1.20
15
.. .
. .
10 . . . .
. .
.. . .
. . 5. .
S&P 500 .. . .
returns
-15 -10 -5 -5
. . . .
5 10 15
.. . .
. . . . -10
.. . .
. . . -15.
Summary:
We know how to measure risk, using
standard deviation for overall risk and
beta for market risk.
Market Company-
Risk Unique Risk
can be diversified
away
Required
rate of
Mari kita gambarkan
return
hubungan keduanya!
Beta
Required
rate of
return Security
Market Line
(SML)
12% .
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
1 Beta
This linear relationship between
Risk and Required Return is
known as the Capital Asset
Pricing Model (CAPM).
12% .
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
0 1 Beta
Required SML
rate of
Is there a riskless
return (zero beta) security?
12% .
Treasury
Securities (SBI) are
Risk-free as close to riskless
rate of as possible.
return
(6%)
0 1 Beta
Required SML
rate of Dimana letak
return IHSG pada SML?
12% .
IHSG
merepresentatifkan
Risk-free kondisi pasar yang
rate of tepat
return
(6%)
0 1 Beta
Required SML
rate of
return
12% Utility
Stocks
.
10%
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
0 1 Beta
Required
rate of return High-tech SML
stocks
14%
12% .
Risk-free
rate of
return
(6%)
0 1 Beta
Rumus CAPM
Erj = rf + j (rm - rf )
Notes:
rj = Required Return efek saham j,
rf = the risk-free rate of interest,
j = the beta of efek saham j, and
rm = the return on the market index
Example:
Erj = rf + j (rm - rf )
12% .
If every stock
is on the SML,
Risk-free investors are being fully
rate of compensated for risk.
return
(6%)
0 1 Beta
Required SML
rate of If a security is Above
return the SML,
it is Underpriced.
(Beli Saham)
12% .
If a security is Below
the SML,
Risk-free it is Overpriced.
rate of
return (Jual Saham)
(6%)
0 1 Beta
Latihan
S&P mengestimasikan beta General Electric adalah
1,05. Sebagaimana kita lihat, premi resiko untuk
saham perusahaan besar telah menjadi 8,8% selama
tujuh dekade terakhir. Tingkat pengembalian bebas
risiko (Treasury Bills) pada awal 2018 sekitar
1,8%.
Tentukan berapa tingkat pengembalian yang
diharapkan investor dari GE?