TIME BY GROUP 5:

ALISHA PANDEY

SERIES
JYOTIKA BHATT
RAJAT MANANDHAR
RAMAN SHAH

ANALYSIS SALIM KC
TABLE ● INTRODUCTION

OF ●
●
IMPORTANCE
IMPORTANCE IN BUSINESS

CONTENT
● EXAMPLES
● COMPONENTS
➢ SEASONAL VARIATION
S ➢
➢
CYCLICAL VARIATION
RANDOM VARIATION
● TIME SERIES WITH LEAST SQUARE
REGRESSION
 TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
TIME SERIES TIME SERIES ANALYSIS
● A set of data depending ● Data for one or many variables is collected for many
on the time observations at different time periods.
● A series of values over a ● Widely applicable to forecast the pattern/trends in the
period of time data collected
● A set of observation taken ● It establishes the relationship between cause and
at specified times, usually effect
at ‘equal intervals’. ● Here, time is independent variable to estimate
dependent variable/s
● Includes two types:
1. Uni -variate - Involves single variable
2. Multivariate – Involves two or more variables
IMPORTANCE ● Identify the various forces that cause
variations
● Understand the behavior of past data
● Understand the general tendency of
the data
● Understand the future behavior of
the data
● Evaluating current programmes
(compare actual and expected)
● Facilitates comparison
 IMPORTANCE IN BUSINESS
INVENTORY STUDIES

STOCK MARKET CENSUS ANALYSIS

ANALYSIS

BUDGETARY ANALYSIS

ECONOMIC SALES FORECASTING

FORECASTING

YIELD PROJECTION
 EXAMPLES

● Hourly temperature recorded at a locality for a period of years

● Weekly prices of grains in Nepal
● Monthly consumption of electricity in a certain town
● Heart rate monitoring
● Annual pollution rate over 5 years
● Quarterly sales of a certain product
● Students enrollment of a college over a number of years
● Annual unemployment rate over a period of 5 years
COMPONENTS
COMPONENTS
SEASONAL VARIATION
● Rhythmic forces which operate in a regular and periodic
manner over a span of less than a year.
● Short term fluctuation repeats year after year
● Easy forecasting
● Examples are:
➢ production of crops depends on seasons, the sale of umbrella
and raincoats in the rainy season.
➢ More woolen clothes are sold in winter than in the season of
summer
➢ each year more ice creams are sold in summer and very little in
Winter season.
➢ The sales in the departmental stores are more during festive
seasons that in the normal days
 CYCLIC VARIATION

● Variations in a time series which operate themselves over a span of more than one year
● Cyclical variations are recurrent upward or downward movements in a time series but
the period of cycle is greater than a year. Also these variations are not regular as
seasonal variation.
● Sometimes called the ‘Business Cycle’.
● A business cycle showing these oscillatory movements has to pass through four
phases-prosperity, recession, depression and recovery. In a business, these four
phases are completed by passing one to another in this order.

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 RANDOM
VARIATION

● Fluctuations are a result of unforeseen and unpredictable forces

● Operate in an absolutely random or erratic manner and do not have any definite
pattern
● Variations may be due to floods, famines, earthquakes, strikes, etc.
● Also called erratic, random, or “accidental” variations
● Do not repeat in a definite pattern, Unpredictable
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 TIME SERIES WITH LEAST SQUARE METHOD
● Least Square Method: used to predict the behavior of dependent variables.
● When this method is applied, a trend line is fitted to data in such a manner that the
following two conditions are satisfied:
➢ sum of deviations of the actual values of y and computed values of y is zero.
➢ sum of the squares of the deviation of the actual and computed values is least from this
line.
● That is why method is called the method of least squares. The line obtained by this
method is known as the line of `best fit`.
● The straight line trend is represented by the equation:Y = a + bx
● Where, Y = Trend value to be computed
● X = Unit of time (Independent Variable)
● a = Constant to be Calculated
● b = Constant to be calculated

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THE END
Thank you!
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