Turkey by Figures 2023 (Up To Date 23.04.2023)

Turkey By Figures
Economic Landscape
Prof. Metin Ercan

Boğaziçi University
League of global economic powers by GDP (USD)
Source: IMF (2023)

1
League of global economic powers
 In terms of GDP size, Table 1 clearly shows:
 The rise of BRIC (Brazil, Russia, India, China) powers as
emerging economies, challenging the economic dominance
of G7 powers as developed economies
 Ascend of MIST (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey)
economies among the largest 20 economies since 1980s
 Climbing up the ladder of GDP size league is a major

motive that countries seek (e.g. one of the major goals of
‘2023 Vision of Turkey’ is to be among the top ten countries
in terms of GDP size)
2
GDP (Current Prices USD) of Top 5 Economies of the World and Turkey
Rank 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2020 2022 2027 (Projected)
World: 25,89 World: 31,70 World: 39,033 World: 63,839 World: 76,99 World:85,69 World: 85,24 World:101,56 World:131,63
Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $
U.S.A: 6,86 U.S.A: 9,06 U.S.A: 11,46 U.S.A: 14,71 U.S.A: 16,78 U.S.A: 20,61 U.S.A: 20,89 U.S.A: 25,04 U.S.A: 30,28
1 Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $
Japan: 4,45 Japan: 4,03 Japan: 4,45 Japan: 5,04 China: 9,63 China: 13,84 China: 14,86 China: 18,32 China: 26,44
Germany: 2,07 Germany: 2,24 Germany: 2,5 China: 4,58 Japan:5,16 Japan: 4,95 Japan:5,04 Japan: 4,30 India: 5,37
France: 1,32 U.K.: 1,65 U.K.: 2,05 Germany: 3,74 Germany: 3,73 Germany: 3,97 Germany: 3,84 Germany: 4,03 Japan: 5,17
U.K.: 1,15 France: 1,51 France: 1,84 U.K.: 2,95 France: 2,81 U.K.: 2,86 U.K.: 2,76 India.: 3,47 Germany: 4,93
Turkey(18th): Turkey(20th): Turkey(21st): Turkey(17th): Turkey(16th): Turkey(19th): Turkey(20th): Turkey(20th): Turkey(18th):

249 Billion $ 276 Billion $ 315 Billion $ 771 Billion $ 958 Billion $ 780 Billion $ 720 Billion $ 853 Billion $ 1,35 Trilion $
Source: IMF (2023) 3

GDP (PPP) of Top 5 Economies of the World and Turkey
Rank 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2020 2022 2027 (Projected)
World: 34,51 World: 44,66 World:58,21 World: 83,76 World: 104,95 World:128,71 World: 132,49 World:161,45 World: 210,59
Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $ Trillion $
U.S.A: 6,86 U.S.A: 9,06 U.S.A: 11,46 U.S.A: 14,71 U.S.A: 16,78 China: 21,66 China: 24,17 China: 30,07 China: 42,05
Japan: 2,75 Japan: 3,22 China: 5,04 China: 9,97 China: 16,28 U.S.A: 20,61 U.S.A: 20,89 U.S.A: 25,04 U.S.A: 30,28
Germany: 1,86 China: 3,02 Japan: 3,69 Japan: 4,46 India: 6,48 India: 9,00 India: 9,01 India: 11,67 India: 17,85
China: 4,58 Germany: 2,21 Germany: 2,56 India: 4,23 Japan:4,97 Japan: 5,32 Japan: 5,3 Japan: 6,11 Japan: 7,17
Russia: 1,5 India: 1,73 India: 2,52 Germany: 3,21 Russia: 3,74 Germany: 4,56 Germany: 4,54 Germany: 5,32 Germany: 6,35
Turkey(17th): Turkey(16th): Turkey(18th): Turkey(17th): Turkey(14th): Turkey(13th): Turkey(11th): Turkey(11th): Turkey(11th):

498 Billion $ 654 Billion $ 787 Billion $ 1,22 Trillion $ 1,7 Trillion $ 2,41 Trillion $ 2,55 Trillion $ 3,32 Trillion $ 4,31 Trillion $

Country Groups (Defined by IMF)
5
Country Groups Afghanistan
Albania
Emerging and Developing Economies
The Gambia
Georgia
Paraguay
Peru
(Defined by IMF) Algeria

Angola
Antigua and
Ghana
Grenada
Guatemala
Philippines
Poland
Qatar
Barbuda Guinea Romania
Argentina Guinea-Bissau Russia
Armenia Guyana Rwanda
Aruba Haiti Samoa
Azerbaijan Honduras São Tomé and
The Bahamas Hungary Príncipe
Bahrain India Saudi Arabia
Bangladesh Indonesia Senegal
Barbados Iran Serbia
Belarus Iraq Seychelles
Belize Jamaica Sierra Leone
Benin Jordan Solomon Islands
Bhutan Kazakhstan Somalia
Bolivia Kenya South Africa
Bosnia and Kiribati South Sudan
Herzegovina Kosovo Sri Lanka
Botswana Kuwait St. Kitts and Nevis
Brazil Kyrgyz Republic St. Lucia
Brunei Darussalam Lao P.D.R. St. Vincent and the
Bulgaria Lebanon Grenadines
Burkina Faso Lesotho Sudan
Burundi Liberia Suriname
Cabo Verde Libya Syria
Cambodia Madagascar Tajikistan
Cameroon Malawi Tanzania
Central African Malaysia Thailand
Republic Maldives Timor-Leste
Chad Mali Togo
Chile Marshall Islands Tonga
China Mauritania Trinidad and Tobago
Colombia Mauritius Tunisia
Comoros Mexico
Democratic Micronesia Turkey
Republic Moldova Turkmenistan
of the Congo Mongolia Tuvalu
Republic of Congo Montenegro Uganda
Costa Rica Morocco Ukraine
Côte d'Ivoire Mozambique United Arab
Croatia Myanmar Emirates
Djibouti Namibia Uruguay
Dominica Nauru Uzbekistan
Dominican Republic Nepal Vanuatu
Ecuador Nicaragua Venezuela
Egypt Niger Vietnam
El Salvador Nigeria West Bank and
Equatorial Guinea North Macedonia Gaza
Eritrea Oman Yemen
Eswatini Pakistan Zambia
Ethiopia Palau Zimbabwe
Fiji Panama
Gabon Papua New Guinea
6
GDP Per Capita of Emerging Economies, Selected Countries,
World and Turkey (Current Prices USD)
GDP per capita, current prices
(U.S. dollars per capita) 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2020 2022 2027*
Luxembourg 39.483 45.637 66.160 121.616 121.414 118.467 117.063 127.673 151.082
Switzerland 39.386 42.809 49.679 75.073 88.716 86.754 87.351 92.434 110.653
United States 26.364 32.834 39.405 48.471 53.246 62.770 63.078 75.180 89.546
Qatar 11.797 15.422 35.920 72.485 99.180 66.422 53.798 82.887 101.906
Advanced economies 23.400 26.294 31.622 43.361 44.977 48.227 47.140 53.102 64.410
Germany 25.603 27.528 30.669 46.368 46.299 47.995 46.216 48.398 59.141
United Kingdom 20.056 28.278 34.525 48.039 43.757 43.719 41.127 47.318 64.769
France 23.059 25.783 30.629 46.927 44.131 43.021 40.162 42.330 49.579
Japan 36.425 32.437 35.410 39.992 40.935 39.826 40.049 34.358 42.347
Italy 18.573 22.348 27.580 40.819 35.535 34.918 31.707 33.740 38.775
Spain 13.410 15.457 21.501 35.484 29.085 30.423 27.039 29.198 35.869
Greece 10.364 13.413 18.378 31.902 21.712 19.751 17.603 20.876 25.228
Poland 2.352 4.459 5.700 13.999 13.688 15.468 15.718 19.023 26.226
Iran 1.121 3.301 2.353 5.891 5.567 6.234 11.149 23.034 27.077
World 4.856 5.450 6.247 9.603 10.917 11.471 11.131 13.396 16.491
China, People's Republic of 521 821 1.282 3.447 7.040 9.849 10.525 12.970 18.826
Russian Federation 1.322 1.950 3.198 12.464 15.929 11.262 10.148 14.665 15.506
Argentina 7.796 9.283 3.761 9.147 14.489 11.786 8.572 13.622 13.613
Mexico 5.636 5.478 7.088 10.054 10.759 9.754 8.507 10.948 12.694
4.262 4.384 4.685 10.778 12.489 9.508 8.610 9.961 14.971
Turkey (51st) (60th) (69th) (61th) (65th) (76th) (75th) (81st) (72nd)
Brazil 2.787 5.124 3.089 8.878 12.358 9.194 6.841 8.857 11.571
Emerging market and developing economies 1.060 1.375 1.521 3.536 5.031 5.374 5.243 6.946 9.019
GDP Per Capita of Emerging Economies, Selected Countries,
World and Turkey (PPP)
GDP per capita, current prices (Purchasing power
parity; international dollars per capita) 1993 1998 2003 2008 2013 2018 2020 2022 2027*
Luxembourg 45.037 55.944 74.261 95.970 102.113 119.506 120.086 141.587 165.155
Qatar 61.724 90.512 106.791 118.534 161.194 93.869 96.554 113.675 154.263
Switzerland 33.194 38.083 43.624 56.387 62.653 73.063 73.231 84.469 97.392
United States 26.364 32.834 39.405 48.471 53.246 62.770 63.078 75.180 89.546
Germany 22.918 27.083 31.384 39.835 44.994 55.077 54.551 63.835 76.205
Advanced economies 21.889 26.777 32.348 40.330 44.423 52.573 52.147 62.499 74.916
France 21.410 25.877 30.826 37.416 40.952 48.198 46.213 56.200 66.541
United Kingdom 19.510 24.785 30.605 37.077 40.233 48.164 45.329 55.862 65.857
Italy 22.255 26.712 31.513 36.514 36.289 43.610 41.279 51.062 59.611
Japan 22.558 25.903 29.411 35.512 39.437 42.730 42.154 48.813 58.685
Spain 16.619 21.209 26.721 32.590 32.453 41.328 38.244 46.551 56.673
Poland 7.090 10.347 13.310 19.620 24.553 32.532 34.226 42.466 54.680
8.523 10.377 11.713 17.042 22.221 29.346 30.449 38.759 47.628
Turkey (57th) (60th) (64th) (67th) (54th) (76th) (75th) (81st) (72nd)
Greece 14.396 17.837 23.532 30.501 25.896 29.761 28.457 36.466 45.421
Russian Federation 10.091 8.588 13.333 21.700 26.045 27.386 28.171 31.967 36.686
Argentina 9.538 11.956 11.105 17.567 20.132 23.291 20.764 26.074 30.656
Mexico 9.902 11.797 13.180 16.134 17.429 20.644 19.117 22.440 26.449
China, People's Republic of 1.436 2.420 3.897 7.501 11.905 15.410 17.115 21.291 29.944
Iran 9.150 10.247 13.476 17.583 16.254 15.571 15.764 18.663 21.984
Brazil 7.414 8.622 9.797 13.397 15.669 15.089 14.890 17.684 20.824
Emerging market and developing economies 3.317 3.943 5.045 7.643 9.791 11.377 11.603 14.140 18.402
Real GDP Growth Expectations
Real GDP growth (Annual percent change) 2020 2021 2022* 2023* 2024* 2025* 2026* 2027*
India -6,6 8,9 8,2 6,9 7,0 7,0 6,5 6,2
South Asia -5,5 8,4 7,5 6,5 6,7 6,7 6,3 6,0
Indonesia -2,1 3,7 5,4 6,0 5,8 5,4 5,3 5,2
Middle East (Region) -4,1 3,5 5,4 3,3 2,8 2,8 2,8 2,9
Southeast Asia -3,2 3,1 5,1 5,6 5,4 5,1 5,0 4,9
Emerging market and developing economies -2,0 6,8 3,8 4,4 4,6 4,5 4,4 4,3
United States -3,4 5,7 3,7** 2,3** 1,4** 1,7** 1,7 1,7
World -3,1 6,1 3,6 3,6 3,4 3,4 3,3 3,3
Advanced economies -4,5 5,2 3,3 2,4 1,7 1,7 1,6 1,6
Major advanced economies (G7) -4,9 5,1 3,2 2,2 1,4 1,5 1,4 1,4
European Union -5,9 5,4 2,9 2,5 2,1 1,9 1,8 1,7
Turkey 1,8 11 2,7 3,0 3,7 3,3 3,3 3,3
Mexico -8,2 4,8 2,0 2,5 1,8 2,0 2,0 2,0
Europe -5,6 5,4 1,0 1,8 2,0 1,8 1,7 1,6
Brazil -3,9 4,6 0,8 1,4 2,2 2,0 2,0 2,0
Source: IMF (2023)

*: Projected Value
**:Fed officials now foresee the economy expanding just 0.2 percent this year (2022), sharply lower than their
forecast of 1.7 percent growth just three months ago. And they envision sluggish growth below 2 percent from 2023
through 2025.
9
Turkey: Share of economic sectors in gross domestic
product
Year (%) Agriculture Industry Services

2011 8,17 26,84 53,05
2012 7,69 26,65 54,00
2013 6,68 27,68 53,34
2014 6,56 28,12 53,83
2015 6,87 27,83 53,48
2016 6,14 28,08 53,99
2017 6,04 29,13 53,54
2018 5,78 29,40 54,47
2019 6,40 27,24 56,41
2020 6,68 28,02 54,20
2021 5,65 31,07 52,74
Source: World Bank (2022)
10
Distribution of Turkey’s GDP by Selected
Sectors (%)
Public
Wholesale and retail Financial administration and
Agriculture, trade; repair of motor Transport Accommodation Information and defence;
forestry and Constructio vehicles and and and food service and insurance Real estate compulsory social
Year fishing Manufacturing n motorcycles storage activities communication activities activities security Education
2000 10,0 18,7 5,3 12,2 9,1 2,3 2,2 5,0 8,4 5,2 2,7
2010 9,0 15,1 6,1 11,1 8,1 2,3 2,4 2,9 9,9 4,8 3,9
2020 6,7 19,1 5,2 12,4 7,9 2,1 2,7 3,7 6,3 5,2 4,1
2021 5,5 22,2 5,1 13,0 8,8 2,6 2,8 2,9 4,9 4,5 3,5
Source: TURKSTAT
11
*IMF Projection
 Covid-19 Pandemics decreased GDP growth of the

World.
 Global economic growth has been in a slowdown
since 2010.
 Turkey’s real GDP growth figures are quite unstable.
GDP of Turkey decreased significantly in 1995, 1999,
2001 and 2009
12
Economic Development
 Apart from increasing total GDP sizes, improving

‘economic development’ is a major social and
economic motive of countries
 Several definitions of ‘Economic Development’ are

worth mentioning
13
 United Nations Development Program’s (UNDP) ‘Human
Development Index’ combines:
 healthy and long life,
 ability to acquire knowledge and skills (education)
 decent standards of living (income)
 The World Bank's (WB) income (per capita GDP) level classification
(low, middle and high income countries)
14
HDI Levels of Turkey
Year Turkey's HDI Turkey's Rank

2002 0,674 96
2003 0,684 88
2004 0,690 94
2005 0,695 92
2006 0,700 84
2007 0,710 84 Although Turkey was in a
2008 0,717 79 ‘’Very high development’’
2009 0,721 79
2010 0,728 79
status since 2015, Turkey
2011 0,749 83 ranks 48th among 191
2012 0,762 92 countries in 2022 according
2013 0,769 90
to Human Development
2014 0,799 69
2015 0,792 72 Index.
2016 0,809 71
2017 0,817 64
2018 0,833 64
2019 0,839 59
2020 0,842 59
2021 0,833 54
2022 0,838 48
Source: UNDP (2023)

15
 IMD (Institute for Management Development)’s ‘Global
Competitiveness Rankings has 4 sub-categories:
i) Economic Performance,
ii) Government Efficiency,
iii) Business Efficiency
iv) Infrastructure.
Year Turkey's Rank
2018 46/63
2019 51/63
2020 46/63
2021 51/64
2022 52/63
Source: IMD
16
Sub-Components of Global Competitiveness
Rankings of IMD (Institute for Management
Development)
As of 2022;
Turkey is ranked 37th out of 63 countries on Economic
Performance Sub-Category of of Global Competitiveness
Rankings
Turkey is ranked 58th out of 63 countries on Government
Efficiency Sub-Category of of Global Competitiveness Rankings
Turkey is ranked 55th out of 63 countries on Business
Efficiency Sub-Category of Global Competitiveness Rankings
Turkey is ranked 50th out of 63 countries on Infrastructure Sub-
Category of Global Competitiveness Rankings
17
‘Develop’ or not?
 Income level is a basic and simple criterion of
‘economic development’
 As developing (or middle income) countries develop
further, they become high income (and developed)
countries
 'Middle-Income Growth Trap’: Situation in which
countries that are stuck in the middle income level by
slowing growth, cannot shift to high-income level
18
 In terms of income levels, Newly Industrialized
Countries (NICs) of East Asia (South Korea,
Singapore, Taiwan and Hong Kong) were developing
countries in 1970’s and reached high income levels
(and became developed countries) after 1980’s.
 In 1970’s per capita GDP level of South Korea, Brazil
and South Africa were similar
 By the 2010’s per capita GDP of South Korea is over
USD 20 K while those of Brazil and South Africa are
still below USD 10 K
19
 How did NIC’s manage to achieve what developing
countries such of Brazil and South Africa could not?
 NIC’s were not caught in the 'Middle-Income Growth
Trap' while Brazil and South Africa were
 Can a Middle-Income Developing Economy such as

Turkey, skip the ‘Middle-Income Growth Trap’ and
become a high-income developed economy?
 The answer lies in productivity and
competitiveness
20
Various Index Rankings for Turkey
(World Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index Ceased in 2019)
 Turkey ranks;
 71st out of 141 countries on Institution Pillar of World
Economic Forum’s Global Competitiveness Index (2019)
 62nd out of 141 countries on Human Capital Index of World
Economic Forum (2019)
 Turkish 4th Grade Students ranked 23rd out of 58 countries in
Mathematics and ranked 19th out of 58 countries in Science
according to the results of TIMSS 2019 tests.
 15 year-old Turkish students took the 39th ranking in Science,
42nd ranking in Mathematics and 40th ranking in Reading
section among 79 countries on PISA test conducted by OECD
in 2018.
21
Human development and productivity
 UNDP defines pillars of ‘human development’ as
 Healthy and long life (years of life expectancy)
 Acquiring knowledge and skills (years of education)
 Decent standard of living (income)
 A sustainable economic development path should be

concerned with not only the ‘income ‘aspect of well-
being but also the health and education level of
human capital (qualitative aspects of the workforce,
such as education, skills and health)
 These three aspects of human development are
covered by the ‘Total Factor Productivity’ (TFP)
concept
22
Endogenous growth and TFP
 Endogenous growth model simply dissects economic
production in two major parts:
Production = Factors of production x TFP
 Factors of production include ‘physical capital’
(equipment, hardware, vehicle, production facilities
etc) and ‘human capital’
 Human capital stands for both the ‘quantitative’ and
‘qualitative’ (health, education, skills) aspects of the
workforce
 A higher TFP means producing more with a given
level of factors (physical and human)
23
 Determinants of TFP include the following:
 Foreign direct investment (FDI), trade openness,
technological catch-up
 Investment in information and communication technologies
(ICT)
 Technological change over time
 Knowledge capital accumulation through R&D and innovation
 Human capital accumulation (so human capital is both a
determinant of factor levels and TFP)
 Productive efficiency (production with lower costs)
 Rationalization of production factors (shift of resources to
more productive uses)
 Competition
24
 Determinants of TFP (con’t)
 Best management and organization practices
 Financial development
 Institutional quality
 Absorptive capacity
25
TFP and savings-investment gap
 Note that economic growth can be achieved either
through accumulation of factors, TFP enhancement or
both
 However, accumulation of physical capital is more
financial resource incentive form of growth as
compared to investments for TFP increase
 In a country like Turkey, where savings-investment
gap is in deficit (i.e savings are less than investment
levels) growth through physical investment means a
wider current account deficit
26
Savings-investment gap (With old series)
Current Account Current Account Savings-

Balance (Billion Balance (% of Investment Gap
Year GDP Growth (%) US$) GDP) (% of GDP)
1998 7,5 2 0,70 2,10
1999 -3,4 -0,9 -0,40 1,60
2000 6,6 -9,9 -3,70 -1,40
2001 6,0 3,8 1,90 2,70
2002 6,4 -0,6 -0,30 2,10
2003 5,6 -7,6 -2,50 -0,90
2004 9,6 -14,2 -3,60 -3,90
2005 9,0 -21,4 -4,50 -3,80
2006 7,1 -31,8 -6,00 -4,70
2007 5,0 -37,8 -5,80 -4,80
2008 0,8 -40,4 -5,40 -2,90
2009 -4,7 -12,1 -2,00 -1,00
2010 8,5 -45,4 -6,20 -3,60
2011 11,1 -75,1 -9,70 -5,60
2012 4,8 -48,5 -6,20 -4,50
2013 8,5 -65,1 -7,90 -5,30
Source: Türkiye Küresel Büyüme Modeli (2015) – Metin ERCAN
27
Savings-investment gap
Turkey’s GDP growth, current account balance and savings-
investment gap
Current Account Current Account Savings-
Balance (Billion Balance (% of Investments Gap Savings (% of Investments (%
Year US$) GDP) GDP Growth (%) (% of GDP) GDP) of GDP)
1998 2,0 0,70 7,50 2,10 25,5 23,5
1999 -0,9 -0,40 -3,40 1,60 21,5 19,9
2000 -9,9 -3,70 6,60 -1,40 20,9 22,3
2001 3,8 1,90 6,00 2,70 20,7 18,1
2002 -0,6 -0,30 6,40 2,10 21,7 19,6
2003 -7,6 -2,50 5,60 -0,90 19,9 20,8
2004 -14,2 -3,60 9,60 -3,90 21,5 25,4
2005 -21,0 -4,20 9,00 -3,80 22,9 26,7
2006 -31,2 -5,70 7,10 -4,70 24,0 28,7
2007 -36,9 -5,50 5,00 -4,80 23,3 28,1
2008 -39,4 -5,20 0,80 -2,90 24,0 26,8
2009 -11,4 -1,80 -4,70 -1,00 21,4 22,4
2010 -44,6 -5,80 8,50 -3,60 21,3 24,9
2011 -74,4 -8,90 11,10 -5,60 22,5 28,1
2012 -48,0 -5,50 4,80 -4,50 22,8 27,3
2013 -64,3 -6,80 8,50 -5,30 23,2 28,5
2014 -44,9 -4,80 5,20 -4,50 24,4 28,9
2015 -32,4 -3,80 6,10 -5,00 24,8 29,7
2016 -31,5 -3,60 3,20 -4,90 24,5 29,3
2017 -46,6 -5,50 7,50 -5,10 25,5 30,6
2018 -28,2 -3,70 2,80 -3,90 27,0 30,9
2019 5,3 0,60 0,90 0,78 26,0 25,2
2020 -35,5 -4,70 1,80 -3,90 26,7 30,6
2021 -13,6 -1,96 11,00 -2,10 30,3 32,4
Source: Turkstat; IMF; Presidency of Turkey Undersecretariat of Strategy and Budget
28
Middle-Income Growth Trap: Revisited
 There are three stages of competitiveness:
 Factor driven (for low-income level countries)
 Efficiency driven (for middle-income level countries)
 Innovation driven (for high-income level countries)
 Middle-income level countries commercially compete on

productive efficiency and product prices in the international
arena so they are at the efficiency driven stage
 At that stage of competition, export basket includes
products that:
 can be produced by many countries
 do not require high level of knowledge and skills to produce
 cannot be differentiated much with innovation and quality
29
 With increasing income, cost advantages that offer
the competitive edge to developing countries begin to
disappear
 Those countries that do not make sufficient
investments in human capital (e.g. education and
skills of the workforce) and knowledge capital (e.g.
technologies, patents, production knowhow) cannot
be able to produce more sophisticated products that
 requirehigher level of knowledge and skills,
 are competed in terms of innovation, product differentiation
and quality (instead of mere cost and price)
30
 And countries lose their ability to compete in the
products of their usual product basket with costs
increasing in line with the income level
 The failure to shift to more sophisticated products

while production costs increase with income
defines the circumstances by which countries are
stuck in‘middle-income growth trap’
31
 Countries that invest in innovation, R&D and
education accumulate human and knowledge capital
 And they become able to produce more sophisticated
products in which cost increases do not affect the
competition too much as competition is driven by
product quality and differentiation – not price (e.g.
contrast drivers of consumer choices in smart phones,
iron/steel and simple agricultural commodities)
 Countries are deemed be in the ‘innovation’ driven
competitiveness/develoment stage and are more
capable of avoiding the ‘middle income growth trap’
32
 Turkey has not spent so long in the upper-middle
income level – so it is not in the ‘trap’ technically
 Turkey has to invest more in innovation and sophistication
to mitigate the risk of being caught in the trap longer.
Turkey ranks 41st on the Global Innovation Index 2021
among 132 countries (51st out of 131 in 2020).
 Table 4: ‘global competitiveness index’ (GCI) rankings of
selected countries (WEF, 2019)
Infrastructur Innovation Per Capita Income (2019, Per Capita Income PPP (2019,
Country GCI e Capability USD) International Dollars)
Singapore 1 1 13 65,234 101,458
Hong Kong 3 3 26 48,627 62,267
Taiwan 12 16 4 25,873 53,275
South Korea 13 6 6 31,846 44,573
China 28 36 24 10,522 16,709
TURKEY 61 49 49 9,151 29,724
Russia 43 50 32 11,601 28,184

South Africa 60 69 46 5,978 12,962
Brazil 71 78 40 8,751 15,337
India 68 70 35 2,098 6,977
33
Global Innovation Index 2022 Rankings of Selected Countries
Country Global Innovation Index
Switzerland 1
United States of America 2
Sweden 3
United Kingdom 4
Netherlands 5
Turkey ranks 37th among 132 Republic of Korea
Singapore
6
7
Countries in Global Innovation Index Germany

Finland
8
9
2022. China
France
11
12
Japan 13
Canada 15
Israel 16
Australia 25
Italy 28
Spain 29
United Arab Emirates 31
Portugal 32
Malaysia 36
Turkey 37
Poland 38
India 40
Greece 44
Russian Federation 47
Iran (Islamic Republic of) 53
Brazil 54
Ukraine 57
Mexico 58
South Africa 61
Argentina 69
Indonesia 75
Egypt 89
Pakistan 87
Bangladesh 102
Source: Global Innovation Index

34
Unemployment
 According to OECD, unemployment is defined as
people above a specified age (usually 15) not being in
paid employment or self-employment but currently
available for work during the reference period.
 There are different types of unemployment statistics.
TURKSTAT reports unemployment with different
definitions:
• Unemployment (Headline Unemployment)
• Time-Related Underemployment
• Composite Measure of Labor Underutilization
35
Unemployment (Cont’d)
 Unemployment (Headline Unemployment)
Headline Unemployment is the rate of unemployment that is
based on the number of people who officially say they do not
have a job and are actively looking for work.
 Time-Related Underemployment
Persons employed in the reference week who actually worked

less than 40 hours as total (in main job and additional
job/s )were willing to work additional hours and were available
to do so.
 Composite Measure of Labor Underutilization
Composite measure of labor underutilization=[(Persons in time-

related underemployment+Persons in unemployment+Potential
labor force)/(Labor force+ Potential labor force)] * 100
36
Unemployment (Cont’d)
Definitions
System of National Accounts (SNA):

Is the internationally agreed standard set of recommendations on how to
compile measures of economic activity. The SNA describes a coherent,
consistent and integrated set of macroeconomic accounts in the context of a
set of internationally agreed concepts, definitions, classifications and
accounting rules.
Potential Labor Force:
Potential labor force comprises persons who are looking for work but not
available to start in two weeks or who are available to work in two weeks,
want to work but not seeking work.
Labor Force:
•Covers the working-age population that is willing to supply labor for the
production of economic goods and services in the relevant reference period.
•In determining labor force, activities that contribute to the production of
goods and services within the United Nations System of National Accounts
(SNA) production boundary are essential.
•Comprises all employed and unemployed people.
37
Unemployment Statistics in Turkey
Supplementary indicators for labor force
[15+ - age] (%)
Combined rate of time-related Combined rate of

underemployment and unemployment and potential Composite measure of labor
Years Unemployment rate unemployment labor force* underutilization** (1)
Toplam - Total
2014 (December) 10,8 12,6 16,1 17,8

2015 (December) 10,9 12,6 16,3 17,8
2016 (December) 12,8 14,3 17,7 19,1
2017 (December) 10,3 11,6 15,4 16,6
2018 (December) 13,3 14,5 17,7 18,8
2019 (December) 13,6 14,7 17,8 18,9
2020 (December) 13,0 18,3 24,4 29,0
2021 (December) 11,3 15,5 18,9 22,9
2022 (November) 10,2 14,3 16,9 20,8
Source: TURKSTAT
Notes:
1) Total figures may not be exact due to the rounding of the numbers.
2) The monthly results of 2014-2020 were estimated by model.
(1) It is the ratio of the sum of unemployed, time-related underemployment and potential
labor force to the sum of labor force and potential labor force.
*Composite measure of labor **Combined rate of unemployment and

underutilization=[(Persons in time-related potential labour force=[(Persons in
underemployment+Persons in unemployment+Potential labour force)/(Labour
unemployment+Potential labor force)/(Labor force+ Potential labour force)] * 100
force+ Potential labor force)] * 100
38
Unemployment Statistics in Turkey By Gender
Years Unemployment rate unemployment labor force underutilization (1)
Male
2014 (December) 10,0 11,8 13,1 14,7
2015 (December) 9,9 11,7 13,6 15,3
2016 (December) 11,3 12,9 14,5 16,0
2017 (December) 9,1 10,3 12,5 13,6
2018 (December) 12,5 13,6 15,2 16,3
2019 (December) 12,1 13,5 14,8 16,1
2020 (December) 12,5 18,2 19,7 25,0
2021 (December) 10,1 14,4 14,9 19,1
2022 (November) 8,8 13,0 13,0 17,0

Years Unemployment rate unemployment labor force underutilization (1)
Female
2014 (December) 12,6 14,5 22,7 24,3
2015 (December) 13,0 14,5 21,7 23,0
2016 (December) 15,8 17,2 24,2 25,5
2017 (December) 12,8 14,2 21,1 22,4
2018 (December) 14,9 16,3 22,4 23,7
2019 (December) 16,6 17,3 23,9 24,6
2020 (December) 14,2 18,5 33,3 36,6
2021 (December) 13,7 17,8 26,4 29,9
2022 (November) 12,9 16,8 24,0 27,5
Source: TURKSTAT
39
Unemployment Statistics in Turkey By Gender (Cont’d)
Age: 15+ 2005 2010 2015 2020 2021 2022
(December) (December) (December) (December) (December) (December)
Total Population 48,766 53,433 58,294 63,140 64,173 65,102
(Millions)
Female Population 24,851 27,080 29,504 31,871 32,425 32,878
(Millions)
(%) 50,96 50,68 50,61 50,47 50,53 50,50
Male Population 23,926 26,353 28,790 31,269 31,748 32,224
(Millions)
(%) 49,04 49,32 49,39 49,53 49,47 49,5
Total Labor Force 21,473 24,879 29,948 30,962 33,736 35,206
Female Labor 5,351 6,914 9,487 9,783 11,075 12,031

Force (Millions)
Female Labor 21,5 25,5 32,2 30,7 34,2 36,6
Force Participation
Rate (%)
Male Labor Force 16,122 17,965 20,461 21,179 22,661 23,375
(Millions)
Male Labor Force 67,4 68,2 71,1 67,7 71,4 71,9
Participation Rate
(%)
Source: TURKSTAT
Unemployment Statistics in Turkey: Youth Unemployment
(Thousand
[15-24 - age]
person)
Labour force
Population of participation Employment Unemployment
young people age Not in labour rate rate rate
Years between 15 and 24 Labour force Employment Unemployment force (%) (%) (%)
Total
2014 (December) 11.771 4.603 3.690 912 7.169 39,1 31,4 19,8
2015 (December) 11.853 4.683 3.822 861 7.171 39,5 32,2 18,4
2016 (December) 11.892 4.899 3.739 1.161 6.993 41,2 31,4 23,7
2017 (December) 11.877 4.913 3.996 917 6.964 41,4 33,6 18,7
2018 (December) 11.701 4.903 3.630 1.273 6.797 41,9 31,0 26,0
2019 (December) 11.643 4.860 3.715 1.144 6.783 41,7 31,9 23,5
2020 (December) 11.775 4.500 3.286 1.214 7.275 38,2 27,9 27,0
2021 (December) 12.117 5.047 3.901 1.146 7.070 41,7 32,2 22,7
2022 (November) 11.909 5.499 4.522 977 6.410 46,2 38,0 17,8
Source: TURKSTAT
40
Unemployment Statistics in Turkey: Youth Unemployment by Gender
Age: 15-24 2015 2020 2021 2022

(December) (December) (December) (December)
Total Population 11,853 11,775 12,117 11,888
(Millions)
Female Population 5,919 5,742 5,942 5,791
(Millions)
(%) 49,94 48,76 49,04 48,71
Male Population 5,934 6,033 6,175 6,097
(Millions)
(%) 50,06 51,24 50,96 51,29
Total Labor Force 4,682 4,500 5,047 5,372
Female Labor Force 1,659 1,537 1,820 1,839

(Millions)
Female Labor Force 28,0 26,8 30,6 31,8
Participation Rate
(%)
Male Labor Force 3,023 2,963 3,227 3,533
(Millions)
Male Labor Force 50,9 49,1 52,3 57,9
Participation Rate
(%)
Source: TURKSTAT
Public Budgetary Interest Payments
Year Interest Payment (Billion TRY) As a Percentage of GDP GDP (Billion USD by IMF) Annual Interest Payment (in Billion USD)
1999 11,29 10,5 257 27,0
2000 21,18 12,3 274 33,8
2001 42,24 17,1 202 34,5
2002 53,50 14,8 240 35,5
2003 60,47 12,8 315 40,3
2004 57,88 9,9 409 40,6
2005 46,58 6,8 506 34,7
2006 46,57 5,9 555 32,5
2007 49,44 5,6 680 37,9
2008 51,52 5,1 771 39,6
2009 54,59 5,4 649 35,2
2010 49,72 4,3 777 33,1
2011 43,61 3,1 839 26,0
2012 49,95 3,2 880 27,8
2013 51,67 2,8 958 27,1
2014 51,69 2,5 939 23,6
2015 54,85 2,3 864 20,2
2016 52,74 2,0 869 17,4
2017 60,28 1,9 859 16,5
2018 79,28 2,1 780 16,5
2019 108,30 2,5 761 19,1
2020 138,94 2,75 720 19,8
2021 180,85 2,5 796 19,9
Source: Presidency of T.R. Undersecretary of Strategy and Budget and IMF 2021
41
PUBLIC FINANCE
*Based on forecasts of Presidency of Turkey Undersecretary of Strategy and Budget

**Based on government program
 Share of interest payments on GDP had decreased to a record low

by 2017 but started to increase from 2018. A slight decrease was
observed in 2021.
42
Gross External Debt Stock Of Turkey
Gross External Debt Stock (Million USD)
Year Amount of Debt (Million USD) Gross External Debt Stock/GDP(%)

2000 118.602 43,6
2001 113.592 56,5
2002 129.601 54,8
2003 144.179 45,9
2004 161.160 40,0
2005 170.780 34,2
2006 208.006 38,0
2007 249.932 36,6
2008 280.878 35,8
2009 268.886 41,2
2010 291.141 37,4
2011 304.802 36,4
2012 341.568 38,9
2013 394.452 41,2
2014 406.970 43,3
2015 399.182 46,0
2016 408.081 46,9
2017 453.796 52,8
2018 442.573 55,5
2019 434.187 57,1
2020 432.804 60,4
2021 442.492 55,1
2022Q3 442,858 52,6
43
Source: T.R. Ministry of Treasury and Finance
Gross External Debt Stock Of Turkey
 Gross external debt of Turkey has increased as a percentage of

GDP since 2010. It surpassed the levels of 2001 in 2019. We are
observing a downwards trend since 2019.
44
Public Gross Debt Stock and Maastrich Criterion
 Public Gross Debt Stock of Turkey has been rising since 2017
except the 2022Q1. This trend is alarming although it is below the
Maastricht Criterion.
45
CBRT Reserves
CBRT Gross Foreign Currency Official Reserve Assets (BLN
Date Reserves (BLN USD) Gold Reserve (BLN USD) USD)
1990 6,0 1,5 7,5
1991 4,9 1,5 6,4
1992 4,9 1,5 6,4
1993 6,2 1,5 7,7
1994 7,1 1,4 8,5
1995 12,4 1,4 13,8
1996 16,3 1,4 17,7
1997 18,5 1,1 19,6
1998 19,8 1,0 20,8
1999 23,3 1,0 24,3
2000 22,3 1,0 23,4
2001 18,9 1,0 20,0
2002 26,8 1,3 28,1
2003 33,6 1,6 35,2
2004 36,0 1,6 37,6
2005 50,5 1,9 52,4
2006 60,8 2,4 63,2
2007 73,3 3,1 76,4
2008 71,0 3,2 74,3
2009 70,7 4,1 74,8
2010 80,7 5,3 86,0
2011 78,5 9,9 88,3
2012 99,9 19,2 119,2
2013 111,0 20,1 131,0
2014 106,9 20,4 127,3
2015 92,9 17,6 110,5
2016 92,1 14,1 106,1
2017 84,2 23,5 107,7
2018 72,9 20,1 93,0
2019 78,6 27,1 105,7
2020 51,6 43,0 94,6
2021 73,0 39,0 112,0
2022Q1 65,6 42,4 108,0
2022Q2 60,5 41,4 101,9
December 2022 82,9 45,8 128,7

Source: CBRT 46
*Foreign currency reserves also include the assets rising from financial derivatives activities with resident banks and non-resident banks.
**Official reserve assets Include foreign currency reserves, monetary gold (referred as gold in the table), SDRs, IMF Reserve Position,
and other reserve assets. Foreign currency reserves consist of securities, cash and deposit accounts.
Gross Foreign Currency Reserves of Central Bank of Republic of

Turkey (CBRT) is decreasing with an enormous pace since 2013.
47
Calculation of Central Bank Net Reserves
Source: CBRT Weekly Money and Banking Statistics (13th of January 2023)
As of the 13th of January 2023, CBRT has International Reserves of 127,272
Billion USD that is composed of 79,183 Billion USD of Gross FX Reserves and
48,089 Billion USD of Gold reserves. These are the gross reserves. We must
make some calculations for finding the Net Reserves. Let’s calculate Net
Reserves of CBRT.

The formula for calculation Net FX Reserves of a Central Bank is as follows:

CBRT Net Gold and FX Reserves =

(CBRT Total Foreign Assets – CBRT Total Foreign Liabilities) / USDTRY Exchange
rate for the very same day
48
Calculation of Central Bank Net Reserves (Cont’d)
Source: CBRT Daily Indicative Exchange Rates (13th of January 2023)

When the real data of 13th of January 2023 is used with the formula:
(2424,81-2149,17)/18,7930= 14,67
That means the CBRT Net Reserves as of 25th of January 2023 are 14,67 Billion USD.
Calculation of Net Reserves Excluding SWAP:

II. Predetermined short-term net drains on foreign currency assets (nominal value)
The best practice for deducting SWAP from the Net FX Reserves of a Central
Bank is to deduct the SWAP amount with the maturity date of 3 months at
most from the Net FX Reserves.

(-67.922)[Total SWAP] - (-24.231)[SWAP with Maturity Date further than 3
months and up to 1 Year] = -43.691

As of the 13th of January 2023, SWAP amount, with at most three months of
maturity date, deductible from the net reserves are calculated as -43,691
Billion USD.

CBRT Net Reserves Excluding SWAP=

CBRT Net Reserves – SWAP amount with Maturity Date up to 4 months =
14,67– 43,691 = -29,021 Billion USD

According to these calculations; SWAP Excluded Net Gold and FX
Reserves of CBRT are minus (-) 29,02 Billion USD as of the 13th of January.
Source: International Reserves/Foreign Currency CBRT Net Reserves Excluding All SWAP=
Liquidity (13th of January 2023) CBRT Net Reserves – SWAP amount = 14,67 – 67,922 = - 53,252
49
List of Top Turkish Banks by Size of Assets as of 30.09.2022
(Million TL)
List of Top 10 Turkish Banks by Size of Assets as of 30.09.2022 (Million

TL)
Market Value Book Value Market Value of
Total Total Total of Equity (TL) of Equity Equity (Million Book Value of
Bank Assets Loans Deposits [Listed] (TL) USD**) [Listed] Equity(Million USD**)
Türkiye Cumhuriyeti Ziraat Bankası
1 A.Ş. 2,074,006 1,129,596 1,536,663 - 167,577 - 9,182
2 Türkiye Vakıflar Bankası T.A.O. 1,384,749 813,988 956,320 101.268 90,825 5.549 4,977
3 Türkiye İş Bankası A.Ş. 1,290,955 711,646 837,731 112.999 146,667 6.192 8,037
4 Türkiye Halk Bankası A.Ş. 1,221,622 742,360 905,706 67.679 75,122 3.708 4,116
5 Türkiye Garanti Bankası A.Ş. 1,092,880 602,239 754,521 124.152 131,298 6.803 7,194
6 Yapı ve Kredi Bankası A.Ş. 1,029,884 558,762 605,191 73.742 112,517 4.041 6,165
7 Akbank T.A.Ş. 1,003,481 506,078 624,915 81.952 126,198 4.491 6,915
8 QNB Finansbank A.Ş. 555,144 320,683 350,447 168.002 38,321 9.206 2,100
9 Denizbank A.Ş. 502,976 282,835 336,779 - 47,242 - 2,589
10 Türk Eximbank 340,911 297,975 0 - 22,121 - 1,212
*Market Value is calculated as of 13.09.2022.
**USD/TRY FX Rate is 18,25 as of 13.09.2022. That FX Rate is used for the calculation.
Source: TBB (Banks Association of Turkey)
50
List of Top Turkish Banks by Size of Assets as of 30.09.2022 (Million TL)
(Cont’d)
List of Top Notable Turkish Banks by Size of Assets as of 30.09.2022 (Million TL)
Market Value of Market Value of Book Value of
Equity (TL) Book Value of Equity (Million Equity(Million
Bank Total Assets Total Loans Total Deposits [Listed] Equity (TL) USD**) [Listed] USD**)
11 Türk Ekonomi Bankası A.Ş. 273,854 146,830 197,591 - 22,627 - 1240
12 Türkiye Sınai Kalkınma Bankası A.Ş. 108,284 75,103 0 18.760 9,632 444 528
13 ING Bank A.Ş. 102,082 59,169 69,593 - 12,905 - 707
-
14 HSBC Bank A.Ş. 91,110 38,845 72,405 - 6,828 374
-
15 İller Bankası A.Ş. 85,011 40,165 0 - 33,154 1817
-
16 Türkiye Kalkınma ve Yatırım Bankası A.Ş. 78,838 55,112 0 - 5,743 315
-
17 İstanbul Takas ve Saklama Bankası A.Ş. 69,546 4,371 0 - 3,858 211
-
18 Fibabanka A.Ş. 66,372 32,501 45,823 - 5,751 315
19 Şekerbank T.A.Ş. 65,110 35,306 49,094 - 4,266 1027 234

-
20 Odea Bank A.Ş. 63,746 32,550 44,789 - 4,922 270
21 Alternatifbank A.Ş. 63,607 35,680 37,062 9.076 3,257 1240
22 ICBC Turkey Bank A.Ş. 58,507 24,153 29,487 7.516 2,431 444 528
-
23 Burgan Bank A.Ş. 54,091 33,060 35,846 - 4,865 707
-
24 Anadolubank A.Ş. 46,666 24,206 36,537 - 5,875 374
-
25 Aktif Yatırım Bankası A.Ş. 42,969 16,985 0 - 4,548 1817
*Market Value is calculated as of 13.09.2022.
**USD/TRY FX Rate is 18,25 as of 13.09.2022. That FX Rate is used for the calculation.

51
Presentation of Assets and Liabilities According to their Outstanding Maturities, as of June 30, 2022
(USD Million)
Up to 1 3 – 12 5 Years and
Demand Month 1-3 Months Months 1 – 5 Years Over Undistributed Total

Assets
Cash (cash in vault, effectives, money
in transit, cheques purchased) and
Balances with the Central Bank of
Turkey 38.935 48.410 20 279 0 0 -1 87.642
Due from banks 15.285 9.326 532 125 38 0 13 25.320
Financial assets where fair value
change is reflected to income statement 510 657 769 2.847 3.737 373 287 9.179
Money market placements 0 4.141 80 242 0 0 0 4.463
Financial assets at fair value through
other comprehensive income 146 2.321 5.110 6.916 36.740 17.271 96 68.599
Loans 2.889 38.756 38.859 115.404 115.961 47.352 5.013 364.234
Loans measured at amortised cost 4 877 1.440 5.288 23.234 22.012 -2 52.852
Other assets 3.734 2.216 996 1.408 3.082 1.993 17.553 30.983
Total assets 61.502 106.704 47.806 132.508 182.793 89.001 22.959 643.273

Liabilities
Interbank deposits 5.680 10.007 2.607 2.081 591 0 0 20.967
Other deposits 132.688 147.134 71.151 14.460 441 3 0 365.877
Funds provided from other financial
instruments 0 5.340 6.470 30.806 17.682 10.164 0 70.462
Money market takings 7 41.143 2.148 2.455 1.679 266 153 47.852
Marketable securities issued 12 1.850 2.577 5.109 14.532 3.392 0 27.472
Miscellaneous payables 5.139 9.691 292 702 731 253 1.892 18.701
Other liabilities 4.162 5.415 2.017 5.371 5.711 3.731 65.537 91.943
Total liabilities 147.688 220.580 87.262 60.984 41.367 17.809 67.583 643.273

Liquidity Gap -86.186 -113.876 -39.456 71.524 141.426 71.192 -44.624 0

52
Key Metrics From Turkish Banking System in Million USD
(Cont’d)
Breakdown of Loans (Consumer vs. Commercial)

Loans / Consumer
Loans and Consumer Loans / Commercial Consumer Loans and
Date Credit Cards and Other Loans Total Loans Credit Cards (%) Commercial Loans and Other Loans (%)
13.04.2023 98.138 354.742 452.881 21,7 78,3
31.12.2022 81.929 323.395 405.323 20,2 79,8
24.06.2022 68.997 300.939 369.937 18,6 81,4
31.12.2021 74.837 296.250 371.088 20,1 79,9
25.06.2021 99.962 349.414 449.376 22,2 77,8
31.12.2020 111.209 373.087 484.297 23,0 77,0
26.06.2020 101.296 374.553 475.850 21,3 78,7
27.12.2019 97.908 349.749 447.657 21,9 78,1
28.06.2019 88.903 353.245 442.148 20,1 79,9
28.12.2018 95.776 360.546 456.323 21,0 79,0
Source: BDDK (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency)
53
Key Metrics From Turkish Banking System (Cont’d)
Distribution of Non-Performing Loans By Bank Types (%)
Non Performing
Non Performing Loans/Total Non Performing Non Performing Loans/Total
Loans/Total Loans Loans (State Loans/Total Loans Loans (Domestic Private
Date (Industry) Banks) (Foreign Banks) Banks)
13.04.2023 1,84 1,18 2,42 2,52

30.12.2022 2,14 1,39 2,81 2,80
24.06.2022 2,53 1,72 3,31 3,15
31.12.2021 3,26 2,14 4,35 4,14
25.06.2021 3,82 2,45 5,14 4,97
31.12.2020 4,22 2,67 5,57 5,67
26.06.2020 4,60 2,79 6,43 6,06
27.12.2019 5,60 3,56 7,56 7,03
28.06.2019 4,58 2,87 6,38 5,55
28.12.2018 3,92 2,60 5,54 4,34
55
Key Metrics From Turkish Banking System

 Non-Performing loans percentage peaked at the end
of 2019 and is still very high.
56
Dollarization Phenomenon
Non-FX Protected FX Protected TL FX+FX Protected
Date TL Deposit (%) Deposit (%) FX Deposit (%) Deposits(%)
13.04.2023 41,0 18,3 40,7 59,0
30.12.2022 37,9 16,0 46,1 62,1
24.06.2022 27,6 14,5 57,9 72,4
31.12.2021 35,5 - 64,5 -
25.06.2021 44,3 - 55,7 -
31.12.2020 44,7 - 55,3 -
26.06.2020 49,8 - 50,2 -
27.12.2019 49,2 - 50,8 -
28.06.2019 45,8 - 54,2 -
28.12.2018 51,4 - 48,6 -
29.06.2018 52,5 - 47,5 -
29.12.2017 55,6 - 44,4 -
30.06.2017 55,6 - 44,4 -
30.12.2016 58,1 - 41,9 -
24.06.2016 58,0 - 42,0 -
31.12.2015 57,5 - 42,5 -
26.06.2015 56,7 - 43,3 -
26.12.2014 62,8 - 37,2 -
27.06.2014 62,5 - 37,5 -
31.12.2013 62,5 - 37,5 -
57
Unit: Million TL
TL FX Protected TL FX TOTAL
Date
13.04.2023 6.111.986 1.886.161 4.194.905 10.306.891
30.12.2022 4.778.618 1.418.514 4.087.092 8.865.710
24.06.2022 2.953.402 1.018.197 4.054.578 7.007.981
31.12.2021 1.880.197 3.423.297 5.303.495
25.06.2021 1.723.735 2.169.569 3.893.305
31.12.2020 1.546.036 1.908.992 3.455.028
26.06.2020 1.528.245 1.542.265 3.070.510
27.12.2019 1.264.012 1.305.918 2.569.930
28.06.2019 1.040.764 1.231.289 2.272.054
28.12.2018 1.051.039 993.387 2.044.425
29.06.2018 1.003.794 908.245 1.912.039
29.12.2017 953.756 762.060 1.715.816
30.06.2017 883.253 704.478 1.587.731
30.12.2016 844.489 608.587 1.453.075
24.06.2016 770.508 559.053 1.329.561
31.12.2015 715.591 529.955 1.245.545
26.06.2015 671.995 512.778 1.184.773
26.12.2014 666.918 395.414 1.062.333
27.06.2014 612.776 367.567 980.343
3.01.2014 591.354 354.193 945.546

Due to the increased uncertainty and volatile USD/TL FX rate, Turkish people are
using Foreign Exchange Deposits.
58
Key Metrics From Turkish Banking System in Million
USD (Cont’d)
Distribution of Deposits on Turkish Banking System (by Bank Types)

Domestic Private Banks
Date Industry State Banks Foreign Banks Domestic Private Banks State Banks (%) Foreign Banks (%) (%)
30.12.2022 474.652 220.576 126.944 137.459 45,04 26,21 28,75
24.06.2022 408.686 169.180 116.905 122.602 41,71 28,88 29,42
31.12.2021 401.681 164.275 115.629 121.777 41,08 28,71 30,21
25.06.2021 448.441 192.010 125.622 130.809 42,83 28,04 29,14
31.12.2020 467.814 202.493 127.414 137.907 43,30 27,22 29,47
26.06.2020 450.010 193.376 122.577 134.056 42,92 27,30 29,78
27.12.2019 433.694 165.592 125.406 142.697 38,17 28,97 32,86
28.06.2019 395.904 145.171 115.606 135.127 36,62 29,28 34,10
28.12.2018 389.921 137.981 114.524 137.416 35,35 29,38 35,27
59
Key Metrics From Turkish Banking System in Million
USD (Cont’d)
Distribution of FX Deposits on Turkish Banking System (by Bank Types)
Date Industry State Banks Foreign Banks Domestic Private Banks State Banks (%) Foreign Banks (%) Domestic Private Banks (%)
30.12.2022 218.738,25 94.027,03 58.449,62 66.261,60 42,99 26,72 30,29
24.06.2022 236.764,54 88.663,58 73.167,16 74.933,79 37,45 30,90 31,65
31.12.2021 259.388,27 98.665,96 79.822,68 80.899,62 38,04 30,77 31,19
25.06.2021 249.919,64 97.735,27 75.806,74 76.377,62 39,11 30,33 30,56
31.12.2020 258.528,76 98.241,94 78.648,93 81.637,89 38,00 30,42 31,58
26.06.2020 226.018,13 82.930,69 69.807,07 73.280,37 36,69 30,89 32,42
27.12.2019 220.385,05 73.430,62 68.810,28 78.144,14 33,32 31,22 35,46
28.06.2019 214.553,71 71.429,89 65.538,94 77.584,87 33,29 30,55 36,16
28.12.2018 189.425,91 58.324,58 58.037,88 73.063,44 30,79 30,64 38,57
60

61
62
FX-Protected TL Deposit
Unit: Million USD
Date Deposits / FX-Protected TL Deposit (Million $)

13.04.2023 97.795
30.12.2022 75.787
7.10.2022 76.873
30.09.2022 75.898
23.09.2022 74.792
16.09.2022 74.095
9.09.2022 73.141
2.09.2022 72.146
26.08.2022 70.576
19.08.2022 69.282
12.08.2022 67.559
5.08.2022 65.482
29.07.2022 63.556
22.07.2022 62.426
14.07.2022 61.508
8.07.2022 61.952
1.07.2022 62.436
24.06.2022 59.250
17.06.2022 57.590
10.06.2022 56.788
3.06.2022 56.668
27.05.2022 55.741
20.05.2022 55.238
13.05.2022 55.211
6.05.2022 55.155
29.04.2022 54.880
22.04.2022 53.339
15.04.2022 51.990
8.04.2022 49.666
1.04.2022 47.645
25.03.2022 41.324
18.03.2022 39.566
11.03.2022 38.305
4.03.2022 38.101
25.02.2022 37.486
Source: BDDK (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency) 63
64
Date Housing Loan(%) Vehicle Loan(%) Personal Finance(%) Consumer Credit Cards(%)
30.12.2022 23,54 3,24 44,03 29,19
24.06.2022 27,22 1,84 42,36 21,82
31.12.2021 23,57 1,03 36,64 16,55
25.06.2021 21,85 1,16 32,54 12,87
31.12.2020 21,94 0,93 30,42 11,44
26.06.2020 18,20 0,66 26,71 8,91
27.12.2019 15,66 0,55 20,41 9,10
28.06.2019 14,23 0,48 16,99 8,52
28.12.2018 14,86 0,51 16,13 8,07
65
66
Free Float for various BIST Indexes as of 30.09.2022
Number of Companies Quoted in BIST: 503

Market Cap of Borsa Istanbul: 5 Trillion 100 Billion Liras (equivalent of 278 Billion USD as of
15th of November 2022)
INDEX (%) Free Float (As of 30.09.2022) Free Float [Active Circulation] (As of 30.09.2022)
BIST100 44 31
BIST50 43 32
BIST30 46 35
BIST BANK 57 26
Source: TUYID (Turkish Investor Relations Society)
67
Market Value of Foreign Investors’ Portfolio as a Percentage
of Free Float Over Time In BIST (Istanbul Stock Exchange)
Source: MKK-VAP (Merkezi Kayıt Kuruluşu – Veri Analiz

Platformu [Central Registry Agency – Data Analysis
Platform])
 Percentage of Foreign Ownership of BIST reached a
record low level on 06.04.2023 with 28.7%.
68
Essential Information on Fundamental Analysis
P/B Ratio:
It's calculated by dividing the company's stock price per share by its book value per
share. An asset's book value is equal to the value it carries on the balance sheet, and
companies calculate it by netting the asset against its accumulated depreciation. As a
rule of thumb, any value lower than 1.0 is considered a good P/B for value, indicating a
potentially undervalued stock. Because if the P/B Ratio is lower than 1.0, one is buying
100$ worth of equity for a price lower than 100$.
P/E Ratio:
The P/E for a stock is computed by dividing the price of the stock by the company's
annual earnings per share. In general, a high P/E suggests that investors are
expecting higher earnings growth in the future compared to companies with a lower
P/E. A low P/E can indicate either that a company may currently be undervalued or
that the company is doing exceptionally well relative to its past trends.
EPS:
Earnings per share is the monetary value of earnings per outstanding share of
common stock for a company. It is a key measure of corporate profitability and is
commonly used to price stocks.
Source: Investopedia.com
69
Fundamental Analysis of BIST30 Companies (As of 20.04.2023)
P/E
P/E Company Market Cap EPS PB Ratio
Company Market Cap EPS PB Ratio Ratio
Ratio KOÇ HOLDING
201.10BTRY 2.87 27.53TRY 1,4
AKBANK
92.04B TRY 1.53 11.57TRY 0,5 KOZA ANADOLU
17.35BTRY 10.95 4.08TRY 2,7
AKSEN
40.00B TRY 8.95 3.72TRY 2,3 KOZA ALTIN
72.76BTRY 18.58 1.25TRY 6,1
ALARKO
28.52B TRY 3.50 19.04TRY 1,9
KARDEMIR D
17.91BTRY 8.49 2.12TRY 1,8
ARCELİK
76.29B TRY 17.80 6.53TRY 3,2 9.42BTRY 4.01 1.80TRY
ODAŞ
1,6
ASELSAN 118.45B TRY 10.14 5.23TRY
3,0 PETKIM
36.22BTRY 5.60 2.60TRY 1,9
BIM A.Ş. 95.34B TRY 11.91 13.63TRY
PEGASUS
49.31BTRY 6.94 69.41TRY 2,7
5,2
EMLAK
SABANCI HOLDING
82.60BTRY 1,88 21.54TRY 0,8
24.60B TRY 8.31 0.82TRY
KONUT 1,3 SASA POLYESTER
240.66BTRY 22.17 4.75TRY 14,8
ENKA INŞ. 177.85B TRY 90.00 0.33TRY 2,9
SISECAM
124.38BTRY 6.60 6.46TRY 1,7
EREGLI 116.89B TRY 6.56 5.31TRY 0,8
TAV
28.79BTRY 15.43 5.26TRY
HAVALIMANLARI
1,3
FORD OTOSAN
204.58B TRY 11.09 53.04TRY 4,6 TURKCELL
84.14BTRY 7.34 5.06TRY 2,7
GARANTI BANKASI
118.19B TRY 2.03 13.86TRY
THY AO
184.92BTRY 3.92 34.37TRY 1,0
0,6 TURKIYE OTOMOBIL
GÜBRE
73.35BTRY 98.13 2.27TRY FABRIKALARI
111.65BTRY 12.85 17.12TRY
FABRİKALARI
12,7 9,9
HEKTAŞ
72.00BTRY 76.71 0.37TRY 20,7
TÜPRAŞ
142.39BTRY 3.47 21.69TRY 2,1
YAPI VE KREDI
IŞ BANK C
122.00BTRY 1.93 6.15TRY 85.91BTRY 1.68 6.24TRY
0,6 BANK.
0,6
70
Credit Ratings of Turkey Grade Moody's S&P Fitch
Prime Aaa AAA AAA

Aa1 AA+ AA+
Turkey's Foreign Exchange Credit Rating History High
Aa2 AA AA
grade
Aa3 AA- AA-
Year S&P(Outlook) Fitch(Outlook) Moody's(Outlook) Upper A1 A+ A+
1992 BBB(Neutral) - BAA3(Neutral) medium A2 A A
grade
1993 BBB(Negative) - BA1(Neutral) A3 A- A-
Lower Baa1 BBB+ BBB+
medium Baa2 BBB BBB
1994 BBB-(Negative) B BA3(Neutral) grade Baa3 BBB- BBB-
2010 BB(Positive) BB+(Positive) BA2(Positive)
2012 BB(Neutral) BBB-(Neutral) BA1(Positive) Ba1 BB+ BB+
2013 BB+(Neutral) BBB-(Neutral) BAA3(Neutral) Non- Ba2 BB BB
investment
2016 BB(Neutral) BBB-(Negative) BA1(Neutral) grade
speculative Ba3 BB- BB-
2017 BB(Negative) BB+(Neutral) BA1(Negative)
2018 B+(Neutral) BB(Negative) BA3(Negative) B1 B+ B+
Highly
2019 B+(Neutral) BB-(Neutral) B1(Negative) speculative
B2 B B
B3 B- B-
2021 B+(Neutral) BB-(Negative) B2(Negative) Caa1 CCC+ CCC+
Substantial
B (Stable) (Last B (Negative) (Last B3(Stable) (Last risks
Caa2 CCC CCC
Caa3 CCC- CCC-
Update: 30th of Update: 8th of July Update: 12th of Extremely Ca CC CC
2023 September 2022 2022 August 2022 speculative C
Source: Tradingeconomics.com In default
with little
SD RD
prospect for
 All of Turkey’s Credit Ratings turned non-investment recovery
grade since 2017. C D D
71 In default DD
CDS Rates of Turkey and various Countries
Year Turkey Germany Brazil
2013 113,2 41,4 102,3
2014 244,2 25,5 187,2
2015 193,3 17,2 201,3
2016 277,1 12,0 484,6
2017 276,5 22,8 255,5
2018 157,6 8,4 156,0
2019 367,3 15,3 201,1
2020 286,4 8,8 98,5
2021 557,6 17,0 205,2
2022 533,6 8,7 207,0
22.04.2023 Source:549,9 14,9

Paragaranti.com 226,3
Highest Level (Last 908,40 (18th of 25,80(24th of 374,90 (19th of
5 years) July 2022) April 2020) March 2020)
Source: Worldgovernmentbonds.com
 CDS Rates for Turkey, Germany and Brazil are given in table above
as of January 1st.
CDS Ratings of Turkey skyrocketed in 2021.
72
Imports of Turkey by Product Groups (Million $)
Import of
Intermediate Import of Import of
Non-Energy Goods (Non- Consumption Import of Other Investment
Year Total Import Energy Import Import Energy) Goods Goods Goods
1998 45.921 4.509 41.412,40 25.397,83 5.005 349 10.661
1999 40.671 5.377 35.294,30 21.477,00 4.820 270 8.727
2000 54.503 9.541 44.961,82 26.469,00 6.928 200 11.365
2001 41.399 8.339 33.060,00 21.962,00 3.813 345 6.940
2002 51.554 9.204 42.349,80 28.452,00 4.898 600 8.400
2003 69.340 11.575 57.764,69 38.160,00 7.813 466 11.326
2004 97.540 14.407 83.132,77 53.142,00 12.100 494 17.397
2005 116.774 21.256 95.518,15 60.612,28 13.975 567 20.363
2006 139.576 28.859 110.717,17 70.745,66 16.116 508 23.348
2007 170.057 33.883 136.174,21 89.756,63 18.694 669 27.054
2008 201.964 48.281 153.682,57 103.466,10 21.489 707 28.021
2009 140.928 29.905 111.022,72 69.604,82 19.290 665 21.463
2010 185.544 38.497 147.047,33 92.948,43 24.735 546 28.818
2011 240.842 54.118 186.723,68 119.022,24 29.692 739 37.271
2012 236.545 60.117 176.428,14 114.813,33 26.699 990 33.925
2013 251.661 55.917 195.744,25 127.894,33 30.416 663 36.771
2014 242.177 54.889 187.288,12 121.832,66 29.006 453 35.996
2015 207.234 37.843 169.391,36 105.473,88 28.587 426 34.905
2016 198.618 27.169 171.449,24 107.146,40 27.947 437 35.919
2017 233.792 37.205 196.586,66 134.246,55 28.489 734 33.117
2018 223.047 43.006 180.041,00 127.042,00 22.878 817 29.304
2019 202.704 41.185 161.519,00 116.711,00 18.493 550 25.765
2020 219.517 28.925 190.592,00 134.089,00 24.118 567 31.817
2021 271.426 50.692 220.734,00 159.450,50 24.947 387 35.948
2022 (Until Nov.) 331.100 88.368 242.732,00 179.349,59 27.111 242 36.029
Source: TURKSTAT 73
Imports of Turkey by Product Groups
*Until November
Source: TURKSTAT
74
Historical Development of Oil Prices (Cont’d)
Year OPEC Crude Oil Price (USD per Barrel*)
1960 2
1965 1
1970 1
1975 10
1980 36
1985 27
1990 22
1995 17
2000 28
2005 51
2010 77
2015 49
2020 41
2021 70
2022 100
2023** 85
* A barrel is a unit of volume, almost always used
for crude oil and petroleum products. It is
equivalent to 42 US gallons or 158,987 liters.
**Up Until 24th of January 2023
Source: Statista.com
75
Historical Development of Oil Prices
76
U.S. Energy Information Administration, Short-Term Energy Outlook,
September 2022
Month Price Forecast

Mar 2022 108.50 #N/A
Apr 2022 101.78 #N/A
May 2022 109.55 #N/A
Jun 2022 114.84 #N/A
Jul 2022 101.62 #N/A
Aug 2022 93.70 93.70
Sep 2022 #N/A 94.00
Oct 2022 #N/A 93.00
Nov 2022 #N/A 92.00
Dec 2022 #N/A 91.00
Jan 2023 #N/A 92.00
Feb 2023 #N/A 93.00
Mar 2023 #N/A 93.00
Apr 2023 #N/A 92.00
May 2023 #N/A 92.00
Jun 2023 #N/A 91.00
Jul 2023 #N/A 91.00
Aug 2023 #N/A 90.00
Sep 2023 #N/A 90.00
Oct 2023 #N/A 89.00
Nov 2023 #N/A 89.00
Dec 2023 #N/A 89.00
Source: U.S. Energy Information Administration

77
Inflation adjusted price of one barrel of WTI crude oil during select
events worldwide from 1968 to 2022 (in U.S. dollars)
WTI crude oil price in times of global crisis 1968-2022

Event Crude oil price per barrel
Q1 1973 Arab oil embargo 15.9
Q1 1974 Embargo lifted 42.0
Q3 1980* Official start of Iran-Iraq war 76.93
Q3 1990 Iraq invades Kuwait 39.37
Q4 1990 Peak price during invasion 47.15
Q4 1996 Peak price prior to Asian financial crisis 31.88
Q3 1997 Asian financial crisis begins 25.35
Q1 1999 OPEC cuts production target by 1.7 million barrels per day 16.41
Q4 2000 Peak price prior to 9/11 38.73
Q4 2001 Trough price after 9/11 24.22
Q2 2008 Peak price before global financial collapse 125.21
Q1 2009 OPEC cuts production targets by 4.2 million barrels per day 42.89
Q2 2014 Peak price prior to supply gut price collapse 95.07
Q1 2015 OPEC production quota unchanged despite low prices 44.41
Q2 2020 Trough price during global coronavirus pandemic 24.65
A trough, in economic terms, can refer to a stage in the business cycle where activity is bottoming,
or where prices are bottoming, before a rise.
78
Leading Oil Importers in the World
79
Crude Petroleum Imports of Turkey
Year Unit Value
1996 Billion $ 3,42
Million Tons 22,77
1997 Billion $ 3,19
Million Tons 23,32
1998 Billion $ 2,08
Million Tons 23,79
1999 Billion $ 2,75
Million Tons 22,84
2000 Billion $ 4,21
Million Tons 21,36
2001 Billion $ 3,88
Million Tons 23,14
2002 (1) Million Tons 23,71
2003 Million Tons 24,03
2022(Until November) Million Tons 31,19
1: Value of crude petroleum has not been shared because of the confidentiality since the beginning of 2002.
Source: TURKSTAT 80
Natural Gas Importation Amounts of Turkey for the Years 2011-2021 (Million Sm3)
Country Russia Iran Azerbaijan Algeria Nigeria Other** Total
Change According to the Previous Year
Share Share Share Share Share Share

Years Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount Amount
(%) (%) (%) (%) (%) (%)
2011 25.406 57,91 8.190 18,67 3.806 8,67 4.156 9,47 1.248 2,84 1.069 2,44 43.874 15,35
2012 26.491 57,69 8.215 17,89 3.354 7,3 4.076 8,88 1.322 2,88 2.464 5,37 45.922 4,67
2013 26.212 57,9 8.730 19,28 4.245 9,38 3.917 8,65 1.274 2,81 892 1,97 45.269 -1,42
2014 26.975 54,76 8.932 18,13 6.074 12,33 4.179 8,48 1.414 2,87 1.689 3,43 49.262 8,82
2015 26.783 55,31 7.826 16,16 6.169 12,74 3.916 8,09 1.240 2,56 2.493 5,15 48.427 -1,7
2016 24.540 52,94 7.705 16,62 6.480 13,98 4.284 9,24 1.220 2,63 2.124 4,58 46.352 -4,28
2017 28.690 51,93 9.251 16,74 6.544 11,85 4.617 8,36 1.344 2,43 4.804 8,7 55.250 19,2
2018 23.642 47,02 7.863 15,64 7.527 14,97 4.521 8,99 1.668 3,32 5.061 10,21 50.282 -8,99
2019 15.196 33,61 7.736 17,11 9.585 21,2 5.678 12,56 1.756 3,88 5.260 11,63 45.211 -10,08
2020 16.166 33,59 5.321 11,06 11.548 24,00 5.573 11,58 1.358 2,82 8.159 16,95 48.126 6,45
2021 26.343 44,87 9.434 16,07 7.986 13,60 5.987 10,20 1.249 2,13 7.706 13,13 58.704 21,98
Source: EPDK (Energy Market Regulatory Authority of Turkey)

81
Exports of Turkey by Product Groups (Million
$)
Date Total Export Intermediate Consumption Investment Other Intermediate(%) Consumption(%) Investment(%) Other(%)
2013 161 480 915 80 681 068 63 391 014 16 747 070 661 763 50,0 39,3 10,4 0,4
2014 166 504 862 78 862 205 68 804 372 17 591 672 1 246 613 47,4 41,3 10,6 0,7
2015 150 982 114 71 635 213 61 963 302 16 508 859 874 739 47,4 41,0 10,9 0,6
2016 149 246 999 69 826 264 61 859 943 16 684 585 876 208 46,8 41,4 11,2 0,6
2017 164 494 619 76 491 027 67 938 853 19 265 625 799 114 46,5 41,3 11,7 0,5
2018 177 168 756 84 289 048 71 027 067 20 991 217 861 424 47,6 40,1 11,8 0,5
2019 180 832 722 85 379 506 72 742 386 21 607 242 1 103 587 47,2 40,2 11,9 0,6
2020 169 637 755 80 344 476 68 300 564 19 777 862 1 214 854 47,4 40,3 11,7 0,7
2021 225 214 458 115 183 861 83 843 514 24 841 385 1 345 698 51,1 37,2 11,0 0,6
2022 (Until Nov.) 231 295 014 122 348 122 81 350 795 25 927 548 1 668 549 52,9 35,2 11,2 0,7
Source: TURKSTAT
82
Balance of Payment (Definitions)
Current Account: It covers the goods and services, primary and secondary income
accounts in the balance of payments. In current account, when credits exceed the debits, in
other words, when the difference is positive the result is called as current account surplus;
when the debits exceed the credits, in other words, when the difference is negative the
result is called as current account deficit.
Primary Income: Covers amounts payable and receivable in return for providing labor,
financial or natural resources and it includes compensation of employees and receipts and
payments on investment income, namely direct investment, portfolio investment and other
investment.
Secondary Income: Secondary income covers transfers which are defined as entries that
correspond to the provision of real resources or financial assets, without a quid pro quo, by
a resident institutional unit to a nonresident institutional unit (and vice versa).
Capital Account: It covers gross acquisition or disposal of non-produced nonfinancial

assets and capital transfers.
Source: CBRT
84
Balance of Payment (Definitions) (Cont’d)
Financial Account: Being an account in which the short term and long term
international capital flows realized by Central Bank, General Government
(Central Government, Local Administrations, Social Security Fund), banks and
other sectors (other financial institutions and non-financial institutions,
households and the nonprofit organizations) are recorded, it basically covers the
changes in external financial assets and liabilities of a country and the
corresponding records of these changes.
Direct Investment: Direct investment is the category of cross-border

investment associated with a resident in one economy having control or a
significant degree of influence on the management of an enterprise that is
resident in another economy. Direct investment definition requires that direct
investor should have an ownership of 10 percent or more of the ordinary shares
or the voting power in the management of an enterprise.
Portfolio Investment: The portfolio investment, which is briefly defined as

investment on securities, generally includes equity securities and debt securities
in the form of bills and bonds issued by public and private institutions as well as
money market instruments.
Source: CBRT 85
Balance of Payment Statistics (Annual)
[Million USD]
2000 2005 2010 2011* 2015 2020 2021
A.CURRENT ACCOUNT(Million USD) -9.920 -20.980 -44.620 -74.402 -27.314 -35.537 -13.590
A.1.Exports(Million USD) 30.923 78.509 120.992 142.392 154.865 168.387 224.691
A.2.Imports(Million USD) 52.882 111.445 177.317 231.552 203.874 206.250 253.978
A.a.Balance on Goods(Million USD) -21.959 -32.936 -56.325 -89.160 -49.009 -37.863 -29.287
A.3.Services: Credit(Million USD) 19.365 27.814 36.188 40.848 55.488 35.429 57.511
A.4.Services: Debit(Million USD) 8.088 11.942 19.443 20.560 25.500 23.891 30.839
A.b.Balance on Goods and Services(Million USD) -10.682 -17.064 -39.580 -68.872 -19.021 -26.325 -2.615
A.5.Primary Income: Credit(Million USD) 2.836 4.125 5.197 4.625 4.508 6.221 6.724
A.6.Primary Income: Debit(Million USD) 6.838 9.495 11.712 11.874 14.192 15.613 18.756
A.c.Balance on Goods, Services and Primary Income(Million USD) -14.684 -22.434 -46.095 -76.121 -28.705 -35.717 -14.647
A.7.Secondary Income(Million USD) 4.764 1.454 1.475 1.719 1.391 180 1.057
B.CAPITAL ACCOUNT(Million USD) 0 0 -51 -25 -21 -36 -64
C.FINANCIAL ACCOUNT(Million USD) -9.584 -42.685 -66.418 -63.351 -6.295 -7.618 -29.849
C.8.Direct Investment: Net acquisition of financial assets(Million USD) 870 1.064 1.482 2.370 5.096 3.239 6.447
C.9.Direct Investment: Net incurrence of liabilities(Million USD) 982 10.031 9.099 16.182 19.263 7.831 13.840
C.10.Portfolio Investment: Net acquisition of financial assets(Million
USD) 560 1.213 3.534 -2.688 4.647 2.894 2.260
C.11.Portfolio Invesment: Net incurrence of liabilities(Million USD) 1.615 14.670 19.617 19.516 -9.220 -6.662 3.056
C.11.1.Equity Securities(Million USD) 489 5.669 3.468 -985 -2.395 -4.255 -1.434
C.11.2.Debt Securities(Million USD) 1.126 9.001 16.149 20.501 -6.825 -2.407 4.490
C.12.Other Investment: Net acquisition of financial assets(Million USD) 1.972 573 -5.640 -9.184 14.569 -1.884 13.401
C.13.Other Investment: Net incurrence of liabilities(Million USD) 10.389 20.834 37.078 18.151 20.564 10.698 35.061
D.NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS(Million USD) -2.661 1.495 -6.779 12.090 9.209 -3.907 7.135
E.RESERVE ASSETS(Million USD) -2.997 23.200 14.968 1.014 -11.831 -31.862 23.330
Source: CBRT 86 *Year of Reza Zarrab’s Transactions

Balance of Payment Statistics (Details of
Financial Account) [Million USD]
2000 2005 2010 2011* 2015 2020 2021
III-FINANCIAL ACCOUNT -12.581 -19.485 -51.450 -62.337 -18.126 -39.480 -6.519
III-1.Direct investment -112 -8.967 -7.617 -13.812 -14.167 -4.592 -7.393
III-1.1.Net acquisition of financial
assets 870 1.064 1.482 2.370 5.096 3.239 6.447
III-1.1.1.Equity capital 870 1.064 1.464 2.349 4.927 2.844 4.273
III-1.1.1.a.Outflow 1.029 1.065 1.823 2.542 5.242 3.151 4.619
III-1.1.1.b.Inflow 159 1 359 193 315 307 346
III-1.1.2.Other capital (net) 0 0 18 21 169 395 2.174
III-1.2.Net incurrence of liabilities 982 10.031 9.099 16.182 19.263 7.831 13.840
III-1.2.1.Equity capital 982 8.134 6.221 14.145 11.817 4.401 7.367
III-1.2.1.a.Inflow 1.707 8.535 6.256 16.136 12.181 5.791 7.592
III-1.2.1.b.Outflow 725 401 35 1.991 364 1.390 225
III-1.2.2.Other capital (net) 0 56 384 24 3.290 -524 839
III-1.2.3.Real estate (Net) 0 1.841 2.494 2.013 4.156 3.954 5.634
III-2.Portfolio investment -1.055 -13.457 -16.083 -22.204 13.867 9.556 -796
III-2.1.Net acquisition of financial
assets 560 1.213 3.534 -2.688 4.647 2.894 2.260
III-2.1.1.General Government 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
III-2.1.2.Banks 680 1.285 1.112 -3.218 4.399 2.711 672
III-2.1.3.Other Sectors -120 -72 2.422 530 248 183 1.588
III-2.2.Net incurrence of liabilities 1.615 14.670 19.617 19.516 -9.220 -6.662 3.056
III-3.Other investment -11.768 -14.908 -40.559 -24.508 -5.995 -12.582 -21.660
III-4.Reserve assets 354 17.847 12.809 -1.813 -11.831 -31.862 23.330
IV-NET ERRORS AND OMISSIONS -2.661 1.495 -6.779 12.090 9.209 -3.907 7.135
Source: CBRT *Year of Reza Zarrab’s Transactions

87
Balance of Payment Statistics (Current Year)
[Million USD]
Source: CBRT 88
Is TL Undervalued or Overvalued?
Source: CBRT
 Real EffectiveExchange Rate has been in steady decline since
2012. As of December 2021 it hit a record low of 47,75 (The record
high was 126,68 in August 2008). As of December 2022 it is 54,66.
89
Is TL Undervalued or Overvalued? (Cont’d)
CPI Basket In Turkey
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022
%
Food and non-alcoholic beverages 23,0 23,3 22,8 25,9 25,3
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco 5,1 4,2 6,1 4,9 4,3

Clothing and footwear 7,2 7,2 7,0 5,9 6,4
Housing 14,9 15,2 14,3 15,4 14,1
Furnishings, household equipment 7,7 8,3 7,8 8,6 8,9

Health 2,6 2,6 2,8 3,2 3,2
Transportation 17,5 16,8 15,6 15,5 16,8
Communication 3,9 3,7 3,8 4,6 3,8
Recreation and culture 3,4 3,3 3,3 3,0 3,1
Education 2,7 2,4 2,6 2,3 2,0
Hotels, cafes and restaurants 7,3 7,9 8,7 5,9 7,1
Miscellaneous goods and services 4,8 5,2 5,4 4,7 5,0
Source: TURKSTAT
As can be seen from the table above, «Food and non-alcoholic beverages»,
«Housing» and «Transportation» costs cover more than 50% of the Turkish
consumer price index (CPI) basket in last 5 years.
90
CPI Basket In Turkey (Cont’d)
In Turkish
2018 2019 2020 2021 2022

%
Gıda ve alkolsüz içecekler 23,0 23,3 22,8 25,9 25,3
Alkollü içecekler ve tütün 5,1 4,2 6,1 4,9 4,3

Giyim ve ayakkabı 7,2 7,2 7,0 5,9 6,4
Konut 14,9 15,2 14,3 15,4 14,1
Ev eşyası 7,7 8,3 7,8 8,6 8,9

Sağlık 2,6 2,6 2,8 3,2 3,2
Ulaştırma 17,5 16,8 15,6 15,5 16,8
Haberleşme 3,9 3,7 3,8 4,6 3,8
Eğlence ve kültür 3,4 3,3 3,3 3,0 3,1
Eğitim 2,7 2,4 2,6 2,3 2,0
Lokanta ve oteller 7,3 7,9 8,7 5,9 7,1
Çeşitli mal ve hizmetler 4,8 5,2 5,4 4,7 5,0
Source: TURKSTAT
91
CPI Basket U.S. vs Turkey
U.S.A (%) Turkey (%)*

2022
Food and beverages 14 29
Clothing and footwear 2 6
Housing 42 23
Health 9 3
Transportation 18 17
Recreation and culture 5 3
Education & Communication 6 6
Other goods and services 3 13
*For the sake of comparison, some modifications are made.

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics and
TURKSTAT
92
Core Inflation
• Core inflation is the change in the

costs of goods and services, except
the food and energy sectors. This
measure of inflation excludes these
items because their prices are much
more volatile.
93
Contribution of Different Product Groups to Annual CPI in Turkey
94
Evolution of Turkish CPI
2020 CPI (Year to Year % Changes) CPI (Month to Month % Changes)
January 12,15 1,35
February 12,37 0,35
March 11,86 0,57
April 10,94 0,85
May 11,39 1,36
June 12,62 1,13
July 11,76 0,58
August 11,77 0,86
September 11,75 0,97
October 11,89 2,13
November 14,03 2,3
December 14,6 1,25
2021
January 14,97 1,68
February 15,61 0,91
March 16,19 1,08
April 17,14 1,68
May 16,59 0,89
June 17,53 1,94
July 18,95 1,8
August 19,25 1,12
October 19,89 2,39
November 21,31 3,51
December 36,08 13,58
2022
January 48,69 11,1
February 54,44 4,81
March 61,14 5,46
April 69,97 7,25
May 73,5 2,98
June 78,62 4,95
July 79,6 2,37
August 80,21 1,46
September 83.45 3.08
October 85.51 3.54
November 84.39 2.88
December 64.27 1.18
2023
January 57.68 6.65
February 55.18 3.15
March 50.51 2.29
Source: TURKSTAT 95
Evolution of Turkish PPI
Domestic PPI (Month to Month %
2020 Domestic PPI (Year to Year % Changes) Changes)
January 8,84 1,84
February 9,26 0,48
March 8,50 0,87
April 6,71 1,28
May 5,53 1,54
June 6,17 0,69
July 8,33 1,02
August 11,53 2,35
October 18,20 3,55
November 23,11 4,08
December 25,15 2,36
2021
January 26,16 2,66
February 27,09 1,22
March 31,20 4,13
April 35,17 4,34
May 38,33 3,92
June 42,89 4,01
July 44,92 2,46
August 45,52 2,77
October 46,31 5,24
November 54,62 9,99
December 79,89 19,08
2022
January 93,53 10,45
February 105,01 7,22
March 114,97 9,19
April 121,82 7,67
May 132,16 8,76
June 138,31 6,77
July 144,61 5,17
August 143,75 2,41
September 151.50 4.78
October 157.69 7.83
November 136.02 0.74
December 97.72 -0.24
2023
January 86.46 4.15
February 76.61 1.56
March 62.45 0.44
Source: TURKSTAT 96
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI)
• The Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) is an index of the prevailing direction of

economic trends in the manufacturing and service sectors. If the index value is
higher than 50, it means that the companies are expanding their purchases, an
index value lower than 50 means that the companies are contracting their
purchases.
Source: MÜSİAD (December 2022)
97
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) [Cont’d]
• Different outlets are calculating PMI in Turkey. One of them is MÜSİAD and the
other is Istanbul Chamber of Industry. Graph for Purchasing Managers’ Index for the
Industry Companies provided by ISO is given below.
• As can be seen from both of the graphs, PMI levels in Turkey hit a record low in the
first quarter of 2020 due to COVID-19 Pandemics. PMI level recovered into an
healthy level in the next quarters and saw a peak at the third quarter of 2020.
Source: ISO (Istanbul Chamber of Industry) [December 2022]
98
Purchasing Managers’ Index (PMI) [Cont’d]
How PMI for Various Countries Have Changed in Last 2 Years?
Source: Bloomberg 99
Consumer Confidence Index (CCI)
The Consumer Confidence Index is a survey that measures how optimistic or

pessimistic consumers feel regarding their expected financial situation.
Consumer Confidence Index is calculated by the following sub- indices:
• Financial situation of household at present compared to the last 12 months
• Financial situation expectation of household over the next 12 months
• General economic situation expectation over the next 12 months
• Assessment on spending money on durable goods over next 12 months compared
to the past 12 months
Source: TURKSTAT 100

Consumer Confidence Index
Period Index
2012H1 91,1
2012H2 89,3
2013H1 94,4
2013H2 94,4
2014H1 93,2
2014H2 90,4
2015H1 89,3
2015H2 93,6
2016H1 91,6
2016H2 87,4
2017H1 92,3
2017H2 88,2
2018H1 90,6
2018H2 80,1
2019H1 79,8
2019H2 80,7
2020H1 82,7
2020H2 80,1
2021H1 81,7
2021H2 68,9
2022H1 63,4
2022H2 75,4
2023-01 79,1
Source: TURKSTAT
101

Turkey by Figures 2023 (Up To Date 23.04.2023)

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Turkey by Figures 2023 (Up To Date 23.04.2023)

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Turkey By Figures

Prof. Metin Ercan

Source: IMF (2023)

 Climbing up the ladder of GDP size league is a major

Turkey(18th): Turkey(20th): Turkey(21st): Turkey(17th): Turkey(16th): Turkey(19th): Turkey(20th): Turkey(20th): Turkey(18th):

Source: IMF (2023) 3

Turkey(17th): Turkey(16th): Turkey(18th): Turkey(17th): Turkey(14th): Turkey(13th): Turkey(11th): Turkey(11th): Turkey(11th):

Source: IMF (2023) 4

(Defined by IMF) Algeria

Source: IMF (2023)

Year (%) Agriculture Industry Services

Source: World Bank (2022)

 Covid-19 Pandemics decreased GDP growth of the

 Apart from increasing total GDP sizes, improving

 Several definitions of ‘Economic Development’ are

Year Turkey's HDI Turkey's Rank

Source: UNDP (2023)

 Can a Middle-Income Developing Economy such as

 A sustainable economic development path should be

Current Account Current Account Savings-

Source: Türkiye Küresel Büyüme Modeli (2015) – Metin ERCAN

 Middle-income level countries commercially compete on

 The failure to shift to more sophisticated products

Russia 43 50 32 11,601 28,184

Countries in Global Innovation Index Germany

Source: Global Innovation Index

Persons employed in the reference week who actually worked

Composite measure of labor underutilization=[(Persons in time-

System of National Accounts (SNA):

Combined rate of time-related Combined rate of

2014 (December) 10,8 12,6 16,1 17,8

*Composite measure of labor **Combined rate of unemployment and

Combined rate of time-related Combined rate of

Female Labor 5,351 6,914 9,487 9,783 11,075 12,031

Age: 15-24 2015 2020 2021 2022

Female Labor Force 1,659 1,537 1,820 1,839

*Based on forecasts of Presidency of Turkey Undersecretary of Strategy and Budget

 Share of interest payments on GDP had decreased to a record low

Year Amount of Debt (Million USD) Gross External Debt Stock/GDP(%)

 Gross external debt of Turkey has increased as a percentage of

December 2022 82,9 45,8 128,7

Gross Foreign Currency Reserves of Central Bank of Republic of

Source: CBRT Daily Indicative Exchange Rates (13th of January 2023)

Calculation of Net Reserves Excluding SWAP:

List of Top 10 Turkish Banks by Size of Assets as of 30.09.2022 (Million

Source: TBB (Banks Association of Turkey)

19 Şekerbank T.A.Ş. 65,110 35,306 49,094 - 4,266 1027 234

Source: TBB (Banks Association of Turkey)

Source: TBB (Banks Association of Turkey)

Breakdown of Loans (Consumer vs. Commercial)

Source: BDDK (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency)

Distribution of Non-Performing Loans By Bank Types (%)

13.04.2023 1,84 1,18 2,42 2,52

Source: BDDK (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency)

Source: BDDK (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency)

Source: BDDK (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency)

Source: BDDK (Banking Regulation and Supervision Agency)

Distribution of Deposits on Turkish Banking System (by Bank Types)

30.12.2022 474.652 220.576 126.944 137.459 45,04 26,21 28,75

24.06.2022 408.686 169.180 116.905 122.602 41,71 28,88 29,42

31.12.2021 401.681 164.275 115.629 121.777 41,08 28,71 30,21

25.06.2021 448.441 192.010 125.622 130.809 42,83 28,04 29,14

31.12.2020 467.814 202.493 127.414 137.907 43,30 27,22 29,47