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2=
= E[r - E(r)]
Var(r)
i
N
2Prob[r = r ]
= [r - E(r)]
i i
i=1
10
-1 1 P
-10
-1 1 P
-1
The firm’s exposure to a
price decline, after hedging. Note
the slope of the line is flatter, and
the outcome is less uncertain.
Probability
after hedging
before hedging
Z X
-10 -1 0 +1 +10 CF
Note that “good” outcome X (pre-hedging) can
©David Dubofsky and 2-8
become “bad” outcome Z (post-hedging) Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
Risk Management
• Hedging and insurance does not eliminate risk. It only transfers it
to those who are more willing and better able to confront risk and
deal with it.
• Transactional risk management versus overall economic risk
management:
– many transactions within the firm. Suppose unit A is exposed to the
risk that $/¥ and unit B to the risk that $/¥ ?
• Issues:
• Issues:
• No taxes.
• No transactions costs.
• No costs of financial distress.
• All market participants are price takers.
• All market participants have equal access to all
information.
after hedging
before hedging
X CF
X = level of CF where costs of financial ©David Dubofsky and 2-20
distress begin to appear Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
Why Hedge? II. Hedging makes it more
likely that future attractive investments
will be made by the firm.
• Example: a financially distressed firm has $3 to invest in either project A or
project B.
• Debt principal due next year is $6.
• But even beyond the lost time value, hedging also increases average net
income and cash flow because of the tax code.
• Note that this example assumes that tax loss carry-backs cannot be used. If
the firm was supplied with a $30 tax rebate in the event that taxable income is
-$100, then expected net income and expected cash flow would be the same,
hedged or unhedged.
• Note that using tax loss carry-forwards is not as desirable as being able to use
tax deductible items immediately, due to the time value of money.
• If the market applies the same or higher price earnings multiple to the
hedged firm’s average earnings per share, then again we must
conclude that hedging increases the value of the firm’s common stock.
Taxable Income
©David Dubofsky and 2-26
Thomas W. Miller, Jr.
Why Hedge? IV. Hedging Reduces Average Taxes
Paid When the Tax Schedule is Convex.
Unhedged
Prob. Taxable Income Taxes
0.50 $150,000 $2,500
0.50 $450,000 $75,000
Hedged
Prob. Taxable Income Taxes
• Or, should the goal of the firm be to minimize the firm’s risk
exposure?
• Yes.