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Queuing
Queuing
4
The Arrival Process
• Under three conditions the arrivals can be modeled as a
Poisson process
– Orderliness : one customer, at most, will arrive during any time
interval.
– Stationarity : for a given time frame, the probability of arrivals
within a certain time interval is the same for all time intervals of
equal length.
– Independence : the arrival of one customer has no influence on
the arrival of another.
5
The Poisson Arrival Process
P(X = k) = t e
k - t
k!
Where
= mean arrival rate per time unit.
t = the length of the interval.
e = 2.7182818 (the base of the natural logarithm).
k! = k (k -1) (k -2) (k -3) … (3) (2) (1).
6
HANK’s HARDWARE – Arrival Process
7
HANK’s HARDWARE –
An illustration of the Poisson distribution.
• Input to the Poisson
distribution
= 6 customers per hour.
t = 0.5 hour.
t = (6)(0.5) = 3.
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8
102k3
- t
P(X = 1k23 )= t e 0.224042
0.149361
0.049787
0.224042
k2!3!!
1! 8
HANK’s HARDWARE –
Using Excel for the Poisson probabilities
• Solution
– We can use the POISSON function in Excel to
determine Poisson probabilities.
– Point probability: P(X = k) = ?
• Use Poisson(k, t, FALSE)
• Example: P(X = 0; t = 3) = POISSON(0, 1.5, FALSE)
– Cumulative probability: P(Xk) = ?
• Example: P(X3; t = 3) = Poisson(3, 1.5, TRUE)
9
HANK’s HARDWARE –
Excel Poisson
10
The Waiting Line Characteristics
11
Line Configuration
12
Jockeying and Balking
• Jockeying occurs when customers switch lines
once they perceived that another line is moving
faster.
• Balking occurs if customers avoid joining the line
when they perceive the line to be too long.
13
Priority Rules
14
Tandem Queues
15
Homogeneity
16
The Service Process
17
The Exponential Service Time Distribution
f(t) = e-t
The probability that the service time X is less than some “t.”
18
Schematic illustration of the exponential
distribution
19
X=t
HANK’s HARDWARE – Service time
20
Using Excel for the Exponential Probabilities
21
HANK’s HARDWARE –
Using Excel for the Exponential Probabilities
• The mean number of customers served per
minute is ¼ = ¼(60) = 15 customers per hour.
• P(X < .05 hours) = 1 – e-(15)(.05) = ?
• From Excel we have: 3 minutes = .05 hours
– EXPONDIST(.05,15,TRUE) = .5276
22
HANK’s HARDWARE –
Using Excel for the Exponential Probabilities
=EXPONDIST(B4,B3,TRUE)
16.000
14.000
12.000
10.000
f(t)
8.000
6.000
4.000
2.000
0.000
0.000 0.075 0.150 0.225 0.300 0.375
t
=EXPONDIST(A10,$B$3,FALSE)
Drag to B11:B26
23
The Exponential Distribution -
Characteristics
• The memoryless property.
– No additional information about the time left for the completion of a
service, is gained by recording the time elapsed since the service
started.
– For Hank’s, the probability of completing a service within the next 3
minutes is (0.52763) independent of how long the customer has been
served already.
25
9.3 Performance Measures of Queuing
System
• The transient period
n
occurs at the initial Roughly, this
time of operation. is a transient
period…
• Initial transient
behavior is not
indicative of long run
performance.
Time
26
9.3 Performance Measures of Queuing
System
• The steady state
n
period follows the This is a
Roughly, this
transient period. is a transient steady state
period………..
• Meaningful long run period…
performance
measures can be
calculated for the
system when in
Time
steady state.
27
9.3 Performance Measures of Queuing
System
L =W Lq = Wq L = Lq +
32
M / M /1 Queue - Performance Measures
P0 = 1 – ()
Pn = [1 – ()]()n
L = ( – ) The probability that
Lq = 2 [( – )] a customer waits in
W = 1 ( – ) the system more than
“t” is P(X>t) = e-( - )t
Wq = [( – )]
Pw =
=
33
MARY’s SHOES
• Customers arrive at Mary’s Shoes every 12
minutes on the average, according to a Poisson
process.
=B4/B5 =1-B4/B5
=A11-B4/B5
=1-
=B4/(B5-B4) =C11-1/B5 E11 =H11*($B$4/$B$5
=A11/
B4 )
Drag to Cell AL11
36
Economic Analysis of Queuing
Systems
• The performance measures previously developed
are used next to determine a minimal cost queuing
system.
• The procedure requires estimated costs such as:
– Hourly cost per server .
– Customer goodwill cost while waiting in line.
– Customer goodwill cost while being served.
37
Tandem Queuing Systems
• In a Tandem Queuing System a customer must visit
several different servers before service is completed.
Meats Beverage
• Examples
– All-You-Can-Eat restaurant
38
Tandem Queuing Systems
• In a Tandem Queuing System a customer must visit
several different servers before service is completed.
Meats Beverage
• Examples
– All-You-Can-Eat restaurant
39
Tandem Queuing Systems
• In a Tandem Queuing System a customer must visit
several different servers before service is completed.
Meats Beverage
• Examples
– All-You-Can-Eat restaurant
– A drive-in restaurant, where first you place your order, then
pay and receive it in the next window.
– A multiple stage assembly line.
40
Tandem Queuing Systems
• For cases in which customers arrive according
to a Poisson process and service time in each
station is exponential, ….
41
BIG BOYS SOUND, INC.
44
BIG BOYS SOUND, INC. – Solution
Cashiers
Sales Clerks
=3
M/M/3
M/M/8
0
=
W3 = 2.67 minutes
=
30
40
W2 = 3.47 minutes
W1 = 14 minutes Total = 20.14 minutes.
45