Sixteenth Global Studies Conference

Agency in an Era of Displacement and Social

Change, 19-21 July 2023
SUGAR, MOLASSES AND HONEY WORLD TRADE AND THE
CONSUMER BEHAVIOUR IN THE PANDEMIC CONTEXT: EVIDENCE
FROM NATURAL HONEY MARKET, WITH A FOCUS ON MOUNTAIN
HONEY

Brîndușa Covaci1, Mihai Covaci2

1
Oradea University, Centre for Mountain Economy, CBM International University, USA 
2
Hyperion University & CBM International University, USA
*Email: contact@cbmuniversity.org, zealandina.agency@gmail.com
KEYWORDS. consumer behavior; COVID-19; honey remedies; mountain honey; sugar, molasses, and honey; world trade market

ABSTRACT:

The paper proposes a construct for SMH - sugar, molasses, and honey class - consumer behavior, focusing on the mountain Apis
Mellifera healing effects and its market. The presentation will focus on world trade of SMH.

Apis Mellifera product is considered one of the primary natural prevention and treatment for COVID-19.

The paper contains relevant data about the SMH class related to statistics of the World Bank, United Nations, Eurostat,
International Trade Center, and other sources presented in the paper.

Data has been processed into SPSS and Excel, according to ANOVA (descriptive statistics with a focus on frequency analysis) and
forecasting analysis. The forecasting model of the export value, for the 2021 – 2040 period, takes into consideration the descriptive
statistics analysis based on 2001 – 2020 data.

The SMH market increased from 2019 (42064966 $tsd) to 2021 (50454285 $tsd) by 19.94%. Forecasts for 2030 show that the
SMH market will increase by 13.55% (from 176.4 mttq - metric tons tel quelle in 2021 to 200.3 mttq in 2030) (OECD(a)).
 Introduction

1 Inside the SMH class, the emerging subclass is Apis Mellifera product - totalized in
2021 a monetary export volume of 2672644 USD ($tsd), an increase of 34.71% from
2019 (1984040 $tsd) (ITC 2022; ITC 2021) (Appendix 1).

2 Apis Mellifera product importance: a study in Nature Communications - Kleijn et al.

(2015) - shows that the flora species that provide the most important ecosystem
services worldwide are pollinated more than 80% by about 2% of the world's bees.

3 Apis Mellifera product is one of the most powerful natural medicines, having
antimicrobial, antiviral, anti-parasitic, anti-inflammatory, antioxidant, anti-mutagenic,
and antitumor effects.

4 According to the forecast model analysis of the paper, based on International Trade
Center data (ITC 2021) for the 2001-2020 period, if no other pandemic crisis, then the
linear ascendant trend of the Apis Mellifera product export value will be preserved until
2040. Otherwise, the growth curve will become exponential, given that Apis Mellifera
product is considered one of the most powerful natural antibiotics.
 Background and Literature Review

1 By 2030, sugar consumption will increase considerably, by 1,4% per year, based on population and income growth. Between 2021 – 2030
period, the world's medium level of sugar consumption will increase from 22 kg/capita to 23 kg/capita. Asia (66%) and Africa (30%) will
sustain the supplementary demand for world sugar consumption. (OECD(b))

2 The global supply and demand of honey had an upward trend in the last 25 years, with exports increasing in the period 1995-2019 by 88.01% -
from 16036411 to 30150299 USD tsd (UNCTAD). This growth does not reflect the real situation of exports and imports (Honey gate survey).

3 Various explanations can be found when it comes to exploring the factors that influence consumers of honey products. The research of
Yeow et al. (2013), which aimed to determine the factors that influence the intention to buy honey products, reconfirmed that product
quality is the key factor in the success of honey products. In addition, it was found that the medical aspects involved, the quality of the
product, the reputation of the brand, and the prices influence the purchase intentions.

4 In the EU, a large producer, the average annual consumption of Apis Mellifera product is about 0.3-0.4 kg/inhabitant, in Italy, France, Spain,
Great Britain, Denmark, and Portugal being a fairly high consumption (1-1.8 kg), but also in Germany, Austria, Switzerland, Hungary and
Greece (2-3 kg).

5 In developed countries outside the EU such as the USA, Canada, and Australia, the average annual honey consumption is 0.6-0.8
kg/inhabitant (Bogdanov et al. 2011). Regarding the EU trade panorama, it is postulated that the competitiveness performance is improved
for Spain, Germany, Lithuania, Belgium, Latvia, Greece, Lithuania, and Portugal (Pippinato et al. 2019).
 Material and Methods

1 Quantitative research, realized according to UNCTAD data show that the comparative advantage for
SMH class consolidated considerably between 1995 to 2020. During this period, the world market of
this class (especially exports) doubled its monetary and quantitative value volume (Appendix 2).

2 The world market of this class places North America and Europe at the top of the ranking of the
quantitative volume of exports, followed closely by Eastern and South-Eastern Asia and China. However,
the most important increase in the monetary value of exports is the countries of the Asia-Pacific
Economic Cooperation, especially Australia and New Zealand.

3 Referring to market concentration and structural change indices of trade balance (1995-2019), the
concentration index modifies + with 1.03% (from 0.1855 to 0.1836) and the structural change index
(1995=0) is 0.3801.

4 According to the forecast model analysis of the paper, based on International Trade Center data (ITC
2021) for the 2001-2020 period, if no other pandemic crisis, then the linear ascendant trend of the Apis
Mellifera product export value will be preserved until 2040.
 Indices revealed factor intensity and revealed physical capital intensity, which determines a product
exported mainly by countries that are affluently endowed with human capital is “revealed” to be
accelerated in the human capital showing an important increase during the last decades, from
31353.15 (1988) to 76451.41 (2014) (US dollars at constant 2011 prices per worker) (figure 1).
2014
2013
2012
2011
2010
2009
2008
2007
2006
2005
2004
2003
2002
2001
2000
1999
1998
1997
1996
1995
1994
1993
1992
1991
1990
1989
1988
0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000 70000 80000 90000

Figure 1. Natural honey - Revealed Factor Intensity, Revealed physical capital intensity (US dollars at constant 2011 prices per worker)
Data regarding the world export of Apis Mellifera product, for reporting countries in 2019, has been extracted from the World
Integrated Trade Solution – World Bank database and simulated into SPSS (Appendix 3 and Appendix 4). To avoid errors, data
countries have been presented only for Group 1 (G1) over 10000000 tsd, depending on variable Trade Value (100 USD).
 Results
According to UNCTAD, the global competitive advantage of the SMH products class, Revealed Comparative Advantage
- RCAcp(SMH) - was calculated for both countries taking into account the product set (SMH), a country's exports for the
product set considered and for all products, worldwide exports of that set of products and all products.
(1)
where E represent Exports; c, c' – Country index, C – Set of countries; p, p' – Commodity index and P – Set of
commodities.
● Argentina (3.3982),
● Australia (0.2704),
● China (0.1802),
● Germany (0.5971),
● India (5.869),
● New Zealand (4.7797),
● Romania (0.5043),
● Spain (0.3569),
● USA (0.4703).
Figure 2.a. Models of RCA index for Sugar, molasses, and Apis Mellifera class
Determinants of Sugar, molasses, and Apis Mellifera class Apis Mellifera subclass

trade patterns

Supply chain
Integration, operations, and distribution well developed – Argentina, China, Germany, India, NZ,

Romania, Spain and USA

Integration, operations, and purchasing well developed – Australia, Germany, Spain and USA

Demand
Low (intern) – Australia, NZ, and Spain; Low (extern) – Low (intern) – China, India, and Romania

Germany

High (intern and extern) – Argentina, Australia (except High (extern) – Australia, Argentina, Germany,

intern), China, India, Romania and USA India, NZ, and Spain

Institutional
Governance and labour market – Australia, Germany, New Zealand, Spain and USA
factors
Inequality, social and political factors – Argentina, India and Romania
Determinants of Sugar, molasses, and Apis Mellifera class & Apis Mellifera subclass

trade patterns

National and
Bureaucracy – Argentina, China, India, Romania, and Spain
regional
High distance exporter-importer – Australia, China, India and New Zealand
characteristics

Import for export – Australia, Germany, and USA

International
Facile cross-border transaction – USA, Australia, New Zealand, Germany
characteristics
Advantage of currency – Australia, Germany, New Zealand, Spain, and USA

Free-market economy – Australia, Germany, India, New Zealand, Romania, Spain, USA

Free flow of factors of production – Germany, Romania and Spain

Tariff barriers - average tariff (according to Uruguay Round Agreement on Agriculture): 0-24% Australia,

Germany, New Zealand, Spain, Romania, USA; 25-49% Argentina and some cases Germany, Spain and
The paper demonstrates that world trade for the SMH class present a continuous dynamic for
1995-2045 period, especially on Apis Mellifera product market growth. The pandemic
context, accelerated the of development of this market, consumer behavior changing over
time the preferences from white to dark SMH, especially to Apis Mellifera product, as
Manuka honey and mountain honey (as reminded, these types of SMH are considered
superior from the nutritive and medical point of views). Researches show that sweeties
consumers of presented countries, inside and outside these territories, prefer natural ones
which are more expensive than the others. This aspect accumulates higher value for SMH
market. World exports analysis presents Apis Mellifera product as included in the SMH class.
The statistics present this class in permanent and positive dynamics, especially for RCA and
market concentration and structural change indices of different products exports and imports.
The article realizes qualitative and quantitative analysis of the SMH, with a focus on Apis
Mellifera product market and consumer behavior in the context of COVID-19. The analysis is
unique in the scientific literature, being the only approach regarding SMH market with a
focus on Apis Mellifera product, especially mountain honey, consumer behavior and the
world trade market for relevant countries in the context of COVID-19. Statistics show that
according to the forecasting model of the SMH, respectively Apis Mellifera product, these
commodities will increase considerably in world exports value before 2045, especially in the
analyzed countries which will share more in the world trade Apis Mellifera product market
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Thank you for your attention!

Q&A