PROBABILITY

STAT 290
Probability
 The likelihood or chance of an event occurring
 If an event is IMPOSSIBLE its probability is ZERO
 If an event is CERTAIN its probability is ONE
 So all probabilities lie between 0 and 1
 Probabilities can be represented as a fraction, decimal of percentages

Probabilty
0 0.5 1
Impossibe Unlikely Equally Likely Likely Certain
Experimental Probability
 Relative Frequency is an estimate of probability

 Approaches theoretic probability as the number of trials increases

Example
Toss a coin 20 times an observe the relative frequency of getting tails.
Theoretical Probability
 Key Terms:
Each EXPERIMENT has a given number of specific OUTCOMES which
together make up the SAMPLE SPACE(S). The probability of an EVENT (A)
occurring must be such that A is subset of S

 Experiment throwing coin die

 # possible Outcomes, n(S) 2 6
 Sample Space, S H,T 1,2,3,4,5,6
 Event A (A subset S) getting H getting even #
Theoretical Probability
 Probability
The probability of an event A occurring is calculated as:

A B
Examples
1. A fair die is rolled find the probability of getting:
a) a “6” 1
6 4 2
=
b) a factor of 6 6
6
3
=1
c) a factor of 60 6 5
d) a number less than 6 6
0
a number greater than 6 =0
e) 6

2. One letter is selected from “excellent”. Find the probability that it is:
3 1
a) an “e” =
9 3
b) a consonant 6 2
=
9 3

3. One card is selected

4 1
from a deck of cards find the probability of selecting:
=
a) a Queen 52 13
26 1
b) a red card 53
=
22 1
=
c) a red queen 52 26
Theoretical Probability
 Conditional Probability
Conditional Probability of A given B is the probability that A occurs given that event B has
occurred. This basically changes the sample space to B

A B
Examples
1. A fair die is rolled find the probability of getting:
a) a “6” given that it is an even number 1
3
a factor of 6, given that it is a factor of 8
¿
b)

2. One letter is selected from “excellent”. Find the probability that it is:
2 1
a) a “l” given it is a consonant 6
=
3
b) an “e”, given the letter is in excel {e,e,e} from {e,x,c,e,l,l,e}

3. One card is selected from a deck of cards find the probability of selecting:
a) a Queen , given it is a face card 4 1
=
2 121 3
b) a red card given it is a queen 4
=
2
c) a queen, given it is red card 4
=
2
26 13
Theoretical Probability
 Expectation
The expectation of an event A is the number of times the event A is expected to
occur within n number of trials,

Examples
1. A coin is tossed 30 times. How many time would you expect to get tails?

2. The probability that Mr Bennett wears a blue shirt on a given day is 15%. Find the
expected number of days in September that he will wear a blue shirt?
15 %×30=4.5≈ 5 𝑑𝑎𝑦𝑠
Sample Space
Sample Space can be represented as:
 List

 Grid/Table

 Two-Way Table

 Venn Diagram

 Tree Diagram
Sample Space
1) LIST:
Bag A: 1 Black , 1 white . Bag B: 1 Black, 1 Red
One marble is selected from each bag.
a) Represent the sample space as a LIST
b) Hence state the probability of choosing the same colours
ANSWER:
Sample Space
2) i)GRID:
Two fair dice are rolled and the numbers noted
a) Represent the sample space on a GRID
b) Hence state the probability of choosing the same numbers
6 Dic e #2

ANSWER: 5

Dic e #1

1 2 3 4 5 6
Sample Space
2) ii)TABLE:
Two fair dice are rolled and the sum of the scores is recorded
a) Represent the sample space in a TABLE
b) Hence state the probability of getting an even sum
ANSWER:Dice 2\Dice 1 1 2 3 4 5 6
1 2 3 4 5 6 7
2 3 4 5 6 7 8
3 4 5 6 7 8 9
4 5 6 7 8 9 10
5 6 7 8 9 10 11
6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Sample Space
3) TWO- WAY TABLE:
A survey of Grade 10 students at a small school returned the following
results:
Category Boys Girls
A student is selected at random, find the
Good at Math 17 probability that: 19 36
a) it is a girlNot good at Math 8 12
b) the student is not good at math 25 31 56
c) it is a boy who is good at Math
d) it is a girl,Pgiven
( 𝐺𝑖𝑟𝑙the student
) = is good at Math
31
e) the student is good at Math, given 56 that it is a girl
20 5
P ( 𝑁𝑜𝑡 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑@ 𝑀𝑎𝑡h ) = =
56 20
14
17
P ( 𝐵𝑜𝑦 , 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 @ 𝑀𝑎𝑡h )=
56
19
P ( 𝐺𝑖𝑟𝑙∨𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑@ 𝑀𝑎𝑡h )=
36
P ( 𝑔𝑜𝑜𝑑 @ 𝑀𝑎𝑡h ∨𝐺𝑖𝑟𝑙 )=
Sample Space
4) VENN DIAGRAM:
The Venn diagram below shows sports played by students in a class:

A student is selected at random, find the probability that the student:

P ( 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙 )=
17
27
a) plays basket ball P ( 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙∧𝑇𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑠 )=
4
56
b) plays basket ball and tennis 4
( )
P 𝐵𝑎𝑠𝑘𝑒𝑡𝑏𝑎𝑙𝑙∨𝑇𝑒𝑛𝑛𝑖𝑠 =
c) Plays basketball given that the student plays tennis 17
Sample Space
5) TREE DIAGRAM:
Note: tree diagrams show outcomes and probabilities. The outcome is written at the
end of each branch and the probability is written on each branch.
Represent the following in tree diagrams:
a) Two coins are tossed
b) One marble is randomly selected from Bag A with 2 Black & 3 White marbles ,
What are the chances of drawing 2 blue marbles?"
c) The state allows each person to try for their pilot license a maximum of 3 times.
The first time Mary goes the probability she passes is 45%, if she goes a second
time the probability increases to 53% and on the third chance it increase to 58%.
Sample Space
5) TREE DIAGRAM:
Sample Space
5) TREE DIAGRAM:

a) Answer: it is a 2/5 chance followed by a 1/4 chance:

Sample Space
5) TREE DIAGRAM:

a) Answer: it is a 2/5 chance followed by a 1/4 chance:

 Types of Events
 EXHAUSTIVE EVENTS: a set of event are said to be Exhaustive if together
they represent the Sample Space. i.e A,B,C,D are exhaustive if:
P(A)+P(B)+P(C)+P(D) = 1

Eg Fair Dice: P(1)+P(2)+P(3)+P(4)+P(5)+P(6)=

Types of Events
 COMPLEMENTARY EVENTS: two events are said to be complementary if
one of them MUST occur. A’ , read as “A complement” is the event when A
does not occur. A and A’ () are such that: P(A) + P(A’) = 1 A A’
 State the complementary event for each of the following
EVENT A A’ (COMPLEMENTARY EVENT)
Getting a 6 on a die
Getting at least a 2 on a die
Getting the same result when a coin is tossed twice

 Eg Find the probability of not getting a 4 when a die is tossed

P(4) =
 Eg. Find the probability that a card selected at random form a deck of cards is not a queen.
P(Q’)=
 Types of Events
COMPOUND EVENTS:
 EXCLUSIVE EVENTS: a set of event are said to be Exclusive (two events would be
“Mutually Excusive”) if they cannot occur together. i.e they are disjoint sets

A
B

 INDEPENDENT EVENTS: a set of event are said to be Independent if the occurrence of one
DOES NOT affect the other.

 DEPENDENT EVENTS: a set of event are said to be dependent if the occurrence of one
DOES affect the other.
 Types of Events
EXCLUSIVE/ INDEPENDENT / DEPENDENT EVENTS
 Which of the following pairs are mutually exclusive events?
Event A Event B
Getting an A* in IGCSE Math Exam Getting an E in IGCSE Math Exam
Leslie getting to school late Leslie getting to school on time
Abi waking up late Abi getting to school on time
Getting a Head on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Tail on toss 1 of a coin
Getting a Head on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Tail on toss 2 of a coin

 Which of the following pairs are dependent/independent events?

Event A Event B
Getting a Head on toss 1 of a coin Getting a Tail on toss 2 of a coin
Alvin studying for his exams Alvin doing well in his exams
Racquel getting an A* in Math Racquel getting an A* in Art
Abi waking up late Abi getting to school on time
 Probabilities of Compound Events
When combining events, one event may or may not have an effect on the other, which
may in turn affect related probabilities
Type of Meaning Diagram Calculation
Probability
AND Probability that event A AND event B
Note:
will occur together. For Exclusive Events:
since they cannot occur together then,
Generally,
AND = multiplication A B For Independent: Events:
since A is not affected by the occurrence of B

OR Probability that either event A OR A B

event B (or both) will occur. Note:
For Exclusive Events:
Generally, since such events are disjoint sets,
OR = addition
A B
ADDITIONAL SLIDES
STAT 290
 Probability
How likely something is to happen.

Many events can't be predicted with total certainty. The best we can
say is how likely they are to happen, using the idea of probability.
Tossing a Coin

When a coin is tossed, there are two possible outcomes:

heads (H) or
tails (T)

We say that the probability of the coin landing H is ½.

And the probability of the coin landing T is ½.

 Throwing Dice
When a single die is thrown, there are
six possible outcomes: 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6.
The probability of any one of them is 1/6.
 Probability
In general:
Probability of an event happening = Number of ways it can happen
Total number of outcomes

Example: the chances of rolling a "4" with a die

Number of ways it can happen: 1 (there is only 1 face with a "4" on it)

Total number of outcomes: 6 (there are 6 faces altogether)

So the probability = 1/6

Example: there are 5 marbles in a bag: 4 are blue, and 1 is red.
What is the probability that a blue marble will be picked?
Number of ways it can happen: 4 (there are 4 blues)

Total number of outcomes: 5 (there are 5 marbles in total)

So the probability = 4/5

 Probability Line
You can show probability on a Probability Line:

Probability is always between 0 and 1

 Probability is Just a Guide
Probability does not tell us exactly what will happen, it is just a guide

Example: toss a coin 100 times, how many Heads will come up?

Probability says that heads have a ½ chance, so we would expect

50 Heads. But when you actually try it out you might get 48 heads,

or 55 heads ... or anything really, but in most cases it will be a number

near 50.
 Terminology
Some words have special meaning in Probability:

Experiment or Trial: an action where the result is uncertain.

Tossing a coin, throwing dice, seeing what pizza people choose

are all examples of experiments.

Sample Space: all the possible outcomes of an experiment

Example: choosing a card from a deck

There are 52 cards in a deck (not including Jokers)

So the Sample Space is all 52 possible cards:

{Ace of Hearts, 2 of Hearts, etc... }

The Sample Space is made up of Sample Points:
Sample Point: just one of the possible outcomes

Example: Deck of Cards

the 5 of Clubs is a sample point
the King of Hearts is a sample point
"King" is not a sample point. As
there are 4 Kings that is 4
different sample points.
Event: a single result of an experiment
Example Events:

Getting a Tail when tossing a coin is an event

Rolling a "5" is an event.

An event can include one or more possible outcomes:

Choosing a "King" from a deck of cards (any of the 4) is an event

Rolling an "even number" (2, 4 or 6) is also an event

The Sample Space is all possible outcomes.
A Sample Point is just one possible outcome.
And an Event can be one or more of the possible
outcomes.
Mutually Exclusive

Mutually Exclusive means you can't get both events at the

same time. It is either one or the other, but not both
Examples:
Turning left or right are Mutually Exclusive (you can't do both at
the same time)
Heads and Tails are Mutually Exclusive
Kings and Aces are Mutually Exclusive
What isn't Mutually Exclusive
Kings and Hearts are not Mutually Exclusive, because you can
have a King of Hearts!
Probability: Complement
Complement of an Event: All outcomes that are NOT the event.

When the event is Heads, the complement is Tails

When the event is {Monday, Wednesday} the complement is

{Tuesday, Thursday, Friday, Saturday, Sunday}
The probability of an event is shown using "P":
P(A) means "Probability of Event A“

The complement is shown by a little ' mark such as A'

(or sometimes Ac):

P(A') means "Probability of the complement of Event A"

The two probabilities always add to 1

P(A) + P(A') = 1
Independent Events
Events can be "Independent", meaning each event is not
affected by any other events.

This is an important idea! A coin does not "know" that it came

up heads before ... each toss of a coin is a perfect isolated
thing.

Example: You toss a coin three times and it

comes up "Heads" each time ... what is the
chance that the next toss will also be a
"Head"? The chance is simply 1/2, or 50%,
just like ANY OTHER toss of the coin.

What it did in the past will not affect

the current toss!
Dependent Events
But some events can be "dependent" ... which means they can
be affected by previous events ...

Example: Drawing 2 Cards from a Deck

After taking one card from the deck there are less cards
available, so the probabilities change!

Let's say you are interested in the chances of getting a King.

For the 1st card the chance of drawing a King is 4 out of 52
But for the 2nd card:
If the 1st card was a King, then the 2nd card is less likely to be
a King, as only 3 of the 51 cards left are Kings.
If the 1st card was not a King, then the 2nd card is slightly more
likely to be a King, as 4 of the 51 cards left are King.

This is because you are removing cards from the deck.

Two or More Events

You can calculate the chances of two or more

independent events by multiplying the chances.

So, for Independent Events:

P(A and B) = P(A) × P(B)
Probability of A and B equals the probability of A times
the probability of B

Question 1: What is the probability of 7 heads in a row?

Answer: ½×½×½×½×½×½×½ = 0.0078125 (less than
1%).
 Different for Dependent Events!

"What are the chances of drawing 2 blue marbles?"

Answer: it is a 2/5 chance followed by a 1/4 chance:
In our marbles example Event A is "get a Blue Marble first"
with a probability of 2/5:
P(A) = 2/5

And Event B is "get a Blue Marble second" ... but for that we
have 2 choices:
If we got a Blue Marble first the chance is now 1/4
If we got a Red Marble first the chance is now 2/4

So we have to say which one we want, and use the symbol

"|" to mean "given":
P(B|A) means "Event B given Event A“

In other words, event A has already happened, now what is the

chance of event B?
P(B|A) is also called the "Conditional Probability" of B given A.
"Probability of event A and event B equals
the probability of event A times the probability of event
B given event A"
Finding Hidden Data
Using Algebra we can also "change the subject" of the
formula, like this:
And we have another useful formula: