Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Production

C Bunn and O Ovalle with P Läderach, A Mosnier, M Obersteiner

The 24th International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Costa Rica, November 2012

Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)

About CIAT

International Center for Tropical Agriculture

• CIAT: One of 15 CGIAR Centers

• Mission: To reduce hunger and poverty,

and improve human health in the tropics
through research aimed at increasing the
eco-efficiency of agriculture.

• Coffee: About 35 researchers work in Leader DAPA: Dr. Andrew Jarvis

two fields, access to high value markets
and vulnerability to climate change.

…about 100 researchers

CIAT/DAPA - Lead Center of CCAFS

About CIAT
Intro Perceptions

"El clima se ha convertido en

impredecible, ahora llueve menos y
muy irregular, mi rendimiento ha
disminuido y tengo más problemas de
plagas y enfermedades."
Don Pedro, Nicaragua, Madriz, Enero, 2010

©Neil Palmer
Intro Perceptions

©Neil Palmer
 Outline
• Global Impact of Climate Change
on Coffee Suitability
OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, BUNN,
Christian

• Integrated CC Impact Assessment

of the Coffee sector
BUNN, Christian, MOSNIER, Aline, OVALLE-RIVERA,
Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter, OBERSTEINER, Michael

©Neil Palmer
Outline

Sequential Modelling approach

• Spatially Explicit Impacts
• Land Use Change
Outline

Global Impact of Climate Change

on Coffee Suitability
OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH, Peter,
BUNN, Christian
Framework Global
The socio-economic Impact
impact of CC
of climate on Coffee
change Suitability
on Mesoamerican coffee production

Objective
Predict the global impact of climate change on coffee suitability.
Area of study
– GPS-referenced locations are distributed over 19 countries
Methodology Overall
The socio-economic Approach
impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production

Worldclim – Current Geo-referenced

Climate Coffee farms. Global Climate Model
Inputs (19 bioclimatic (GCM) Outputs –
variables) SRES_A2

2030 2050

Species Distribution Statistical

Process Modeling –MaxEnt Downscaling of
β r=o.o5 Back =20000 Climate Information

Future Climates
Coffee Suitability at Local scale
Output
Results MaxEnt
The socio-economic - Parameterization
impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production

>10000 “background” may be

needed if the number of presence
points is large (Phillips & Dudı 2008)
Results
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
Results
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production
Results Global
The socio-economic Coffee
impact Suitability
of climate Map
change on Mesoamerican coffee production
Results Global
The socio-economic Coffee
impact Suitability
of climate Map
change on / Zone coffee production
Mesoamerican
Results Global
The socio-economic Coffee
impact Suitability
of climate Map
change on / Zone 1.coffee production
Mesoamerican

Central America and Mexico coffee farms 2030 2050

Annual average temperature change + 1,4 °C + 2,1°C
Annual change in precipitation - 50 mm - 70 mm
Results Global
The socio-economic Coffee
impact Suitability
of climate Map
change on / Zone 1coffee production
Mesoamerican
Results Uncertainty
The socio-economic impact Analysis
of climateof MaxEnt
change output using multiple
on Mesoamerican GCMs
coffee production
Results Environmental
The socio-economic factorschange
impact of climate which on
drive the suitability
Mesoamerican of production
coffee coffee (Zone1)

High

Low

 Regression analysis of variables:

- Higher temperature and Changes in Precipitation drive
change
- Fore sign of impact depends on altitude
Summary
The socio-economic impact of climate change on Mesoamerican coffee production

Conclusions
 Impacts are site specific
- Low altitudes lose most
- Countries with available area in high altitudes gain

 Higher temperature and Changes in Precipitation patterns drive change

 Maxent modeling should be done on a high resolution

 For sub-regional impact assessments local models are recommended

Outline

Integrated CC Impact Assessment

of the Coffee sector
BUNN, Christian, MOSNIER, Aline,
OVALLE-RIVERA, Oriana, LÄDERACH,
Peter, OBERSTEINER, Michael
Outline

Sequential Modelling approach

• Spatially Explicit Impacts
• Land Use Change
Motivation

The suitability for coffee production is changing

How does Arabica production change relative to

Robusta?

Where are future production regions?

Is there pressure on deforestation?

Objectives

• Demonstrate SDM approach

for integrated impact
modeling

• Combine impacts on coffee

with impacts in other sectors
to model interactions

• Compare Scenarios, Policies

and economic implications
Globiom Partial Equilibrium Modeling

DEMAND Exogenous drivers

Population, GDP

Wood products Food Bioenergy

Process
PROCESS 28
Primary Crops regions
wood SUPPLY
products
HRU = Altitude & Slope & Soil
Aggregation in
larger units
FORESTRY
Altitude class, Slope class,

AGRICULTURE PX5
Soil Class
(max 200*200
km) PX5

Altitude class (m): 0 – 300, 300 – 600, 600 – 1200, 1200 – 2500 and > 2500;
Slope class (deg): 0 – 3, 3 – 6, 6 – 10, 10 – 15, 15 – 30, 30 – 50 and > 50;

SPATIALLY EXPLICIT INPUT DATA

Soil texture class: coarse, medium, fine, stony and peat; LC&LUstat

Biophysical EPIC G4M RUMINANT

Country HRU*PX30
Between 10*10
SimU delineation related
km and 50*50
models statistics on LC classes and
Cropland management systems
km
Managemen Land PX5

Climate Soil and topography t

reference for geo-coded data on crop management;

cover
input statistical data for LC/LU economic optimization;
Globiom Coffee Integration

• Model impacts on Robusta

– Similar to Arabica impact model

• Model Spatially explicit area data

– Downscaling of FAO data using USDA information

• Model Spatially explicit yield data

– Derive a function dependent on suitability
Robusta Global CC Impacts

Ovalle et al 2012
Downscaling
Downscaling
Downscaling

s.t.

Where A = Area
i= Model unit
Yield Potential
Globiom Macro Scenario

• A2 – Scenario
- Increasing
Population
- Regional
Economic
development

• Three climate models

- CNRM CM3
- MRI CGCM 2.3.2
- UKMO HadGem1
- Baseline
Globiom Key Results
Globiom Key Results
Globiom Key Results
Next Steps Upcoming Projects

Upcoming Projects

• Evaluate Adaptation policies

• Include a process model of coffee

• Differentiate demand

• More data
• Data on CO2 stocks and Fertilizer use
• Regional Trade-off model of Adaptation and Mitigation
• Water constraint
Summary
Summary

Conclusion

• Species distribution Modeling can be used for integrated CC

Assessments with little prior knowledge

• Without market differentiation Robusta will be the dominant

crop

• Asia may be a climate change winner, Brazil a loser

• R&D in coffee will be the key to Adaptation

 Global Impact of Climate Change on Coffee Production

C Bunn and O Ovalle with P Läderach, A Mosnier, M Obersteiner

The 24th International Conference on Coffee Science ASIC, Costa Rica, November 2012

¡Gracias!
Peter Läderach (CIAT)
p.laderach@cgiar.org

Oriana Ovalle (CIAT)

o.ovalle@cgiar.org

Christian Bunn (CIAT/HU Berlin)

Christian.Bunn@HU-Berlin.de
Pic by Neil Palmer (CIAT)