Chapter 17: Inflation and the Price Level

Learning Objectives: 1. Explain how the Consumer Price Index is constructed and use it to calculate the inflation rate 2. Show how the CPI is used eliminate the effects of inflation in economic data 3. Discuss the two most important biases in the CPI 4. Distinguish between inflation and relative price changes to find the true cost of inflation 5. Understand the connections among inflation, nominal interest rates, and real interest rates

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Measuring the Price Level

Consumer Price Index (CPI) is a measure of changes in prices CPI measures The cost of a standard basket of goods and services in a given year Relative to the cost of the same basket of goods and services in the base year 2000 is the base year for the CPI Base year changes periodically

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Calculating the CPI

CPI is the ratio of the cost of the basket of goods in current year to the cost in the base year Base year cost $680 2005 cost $850 CPI = (850 / 680) (100) = 1.25 Cost of living in 2005 is 25% higher than in 2000 CPI for the base year is always 1 CPI for a given period is the cost of living in that period relative to what it was in the base year BEA uses CPI as a percentage the ratio times 100
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Price Index
A price index measures the average price of a given class of good or services relative to the price of the same goods and services in a base year CPI measures the change in consumer prices Other indices Core inflation is CPI without energy and food Producer price index Import / export price index

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Inflation
The rate of inflation is the annual percentage change in the price level Inflation in 2004 (1.889 1.840) / 1.840 = 0.027 = 2.7% Inflation in Great Depression Period of falling output and prices Inflation rates are negative
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Year 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Year 1929 1930 1931 1932 1933

CPI 1.840 1.889 1.953 2.016 2.073 CPI 0.171 0.167 0.152 0.137 0.130

Inflation

2.7% 3.4% 3.2% 2.8% Inflation

2.3% 9.0% 9.9% 5.1%

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Adjusting for Inflation

A nominal quantity is measured in terms of its current dollar value A real quantity is measured in physical terms Quantities of goods and services To compare values over time, use real quantities Deflating a nominal quantity converts it to a real quantity Divide a nominal quantity by its price index to express the quantity in real terms

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Indexing
Indexing increases a nominal quantity each period by the percentage increase in a specified price index Indexing prevents the purchasing power of the nominal quantity from being eroded by inflation Indexing automatically adjusts certain values, such as Social Security payments, by the amount of inflation If prices increase 3% in a given year, the Social Security recipients receive 3% more No action by Congress required Indexing is sometimes included in labor contracts

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Adjusting for Inflation

An indexed labor contract First year wage is $12 per hour Real wages rise by 2% per year for next 2 years Relevant price index is 1.00 in first year, 1.05 in the second, and 1.10 in the third Nominal wage is real wage times the price index Year 1 2 3
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Real Wage Price Index $12.00 $12.24 $12.48 1.00 1.05 1.10

Nominal Wage $12.00 $12.85 $13.73

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Indexing Avoids Distortions

Income taxes have been indexed to avoid bracket creep Bracket creep occurs when a household is moved into a higher tax bracket due to increases in nominal but not real income Higher tax brackets have a higher tax rate Indexing income taxes matches tax rates to the real income level Suppose the tax rate on $50,000 is 25% in 2000 CPI is 1 for 2000, 1.25 for 2005 Nominal income of $62,500 is taxed 25% in 2005
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Distortions Caused by Taxes

Not all taxes are indexed Capital depreciation allowance encourages purchase of capital goods Allows firms to deduct a share of the purchase price as a business expense In times of high inflation, investment in plant and equipment decreases US tax system is complex Taxes are collected at the federal, state, and city levels Conflicting incentives Taxes that are not indexed distort the tax incentives for people to work, save, and invest Lower savings and investment means lower economic growth a real cost of inflation
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Inflation Increases the Cost of Cash

If there is no inflation, cash holds its value over time Some cash will be held for convenience When inflation is high, cash loses value over time Manage cash balances to limit losses More frequent, smaller withdrawals cost consumers and businesses time, travel a real cost of inflation Banks process more transactions, increasing costs another real cost of inflation Costs of managing cash holding are called "shoe leather" costs, referring to the cost of frequent trips to the bank
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Unexpected Redistribution of Wealth

Unexpected inflation redistributes wealth Suppose workers' salaries are not indexed and inflation is higher than anticipated Salaries lose purchasing power Employers' are less than anticipated in real terms Employers gain at the expense of workers Similarly, unexpectedly high inflation benefits borrowers at the expense of lenders Borrowers repay with dollars worth less than anticipated Unexpected inflation confuses incentives
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Hyperinflation
Hyperinflation is an extremely high rate of inflation In 1923, German employers paid workers twice a day Magnifies the costs of inflation Minimize your cash holding A study of market economies, 1960 1996 showed 45 episodes of high inflation (100+%) in 25 countries Real GDP/person fell by an average of 1.6% per year Real consumption/ person fell by an average of 1.3% per year Real investment per person fell by an average of 3.3% per year
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Inflation and Interest Rates

Unanticipated inflation helps borrowers and hurts lenders Real interest rate is the annual percentage increase in the purchasing power of financial assets Real interest rate = nominal interest rate inflation r=i- Nominal interest rate is the annual percentage increase in the dollar value of an asset Nominal interest rates are the most commonly stated rates

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Inflation and Interest Rates

Unexpected inflation benefits borrowers and hurts lenders For a given nominal interest rate, the higher the inflation rate, the lower the real interest rate Expected inflation may not hurt lenders if they can adjust the nominal interest rates Inflation-protected bonds pay a real rate of interest plus the inflation rate Fisher effect is the tendency for nominal interest rates to be high when inflation is high and low when inflation is low
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