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    Mousa Aljawaheri
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    The document discusses indices and how they are used to track changes in economic variables over time. An index assigns a base value of 100 to represent data in the base period, and subsequent data is expressed relative to the base value. This allows indices to show growth, decline or inflation. The document then provides examples of indices tracking stock markets, oil prices, Iraq's oil production and consumption, and inflation-adjusted oil prices from 2003-2017. It also discusses IMF projections of peak oil demand by 2040 as efficiency and environmental policies offset rising demand from population and income growth.

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    The document discusses indices and how they are used to track changes in economic variables over time. An index assigns a base value of 100 to represent data in the base period, and subsequent data is expressed relative to the base value. This allows indices to show growth, decline or inflation. The document then provides examples of indices tracking stock markets, oil prices, Iraq's oil production and consumption, and inflation-adjusted oil prices from 2003-2017. It also discusses IMF projections of peak oil demand by 2040 as efficiency and environmental policies offset rising demand from population and income growth.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
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    7 views25 pages

    BUS303 Chapter2 Part 1

    Uploaded by

    Mousa Aljawaheri
    The document discusses indices and how they are used to track changes in economic variables over time. An index assigns a base value of 100 to represent data in the base period, and subsequent data is expressed relative to the base value. This allows indices to show growth, decline or inflation. The document then provides examples of indices tracking stock markets, oil prices, Iraq's oil production and consumption, and inflation-adjusted oil prices from 2003-2017. It also discusses IMF projections of peak oil demand by 2040 as efficiency and environmental policies offset rising demand from population and income growth.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 25

    CHAPTER 2

    KEEPING UP WITH CHANGE: INDEX NUMBERS

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Indices: Definition

    “Statistical device which summarizes a collection of data


    (usually related to the price or quantity of a 'basket' of goods
    and services) in a single base figure.

    This composite figure serves as a benchmark for measuring


    changes in the price or quantity data over a period (month,
    quarter, year).

    Usually, the base is assigned an arbitrary value of 100 and all


    subsequent data is expressed in relation to this base.”

    Source: BusinessDictionary.com

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Indices: The Dow Jones
    Industrial Index

    Source: Financial Times


    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Indices: The Dow Jones
    Industrial Index 1915 - 2019

    standard scale, not inflation adjusted


    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition
    Source: Macro trends
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones- Les Oakshott
    100-year-historical-chart
    Indices: The Dow Jones
    Industrial Index 1915 - 2019

    Log scale, inflation adjusted


    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition
    Source: Macro trends
    https://www.macrotrends.net/1319/dow-jones- Les Oakshott
    100-year-historical-chart
    Indices: Rabee Securities Iraq
    Stock Exchange (ISX) Index

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition


    Source: Rabee Securities, Ministry of Oil,
    ISX, Asia Frontier Capital Les Oakshott
    Formula for a Simple Price Index

    Price Index = Pn  100


    P0
    Where pn = price in year n
    po = price in base year

    A price index of 117 would indicate an increase of


    17% relative to the base year
    A price index of 75 would indicate a decrease of
    25% relative to the base year
    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    A Brent Price Index: Data

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    A Brent Price Index: Index

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    A Brent Price Index: Index

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    A Brent Price Index: Rate of Change

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    A Brent Price Index: Index vs Y-Y Change

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Iraq Oil Production

    Source: TradingEconomics.com Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition


    https://tradingeconomics.com/iraq/cru
    de-oil-production Les Oakshott
    Iraq Oil Exports by destination

    Source: Qamar Research, Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition


    TankerTrackers.com
    http://www.bayancenter.org/en/wp-content/ Les Oakshott
    uploads/2018/02/09090908.pdf
    Oil Consumption: Data 2003-2017

    Brent prices sort: Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition


    https://www.statista.com/statistics/262860/uk-brent-crude-oil-price-cha
    nges-since-1976/
    Consumption data: https://www.bp.com/en/global/corporate/energy-
    Les Oakshott
    economics/statistical-review-of-world-energy.html
    IMF Projections & Oil Demand

    “The IMF sees oil


    demand peaking ~2040.
    Population growth and
    rising incomes will
    continue to contribute to
    demand. But a shift
    away from oil will
    accelerate due to
    energy efficiency and
    environmental
    protection, eventually
    offsetting population
    and income effects.”

    https://twitter.com/ZiadMDaoud/status/1227277028879003648?s=20
    https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-02-06/middle-east-s-2-trillion-wealt
    h-could-be-gone-by-2034-imf-says Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition
    https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/Departmental-Papers-Policy-
    Papers/Issues/2020/01/31/The-Future-of-Oil-and-Fiscal-Sustainability-
    in-the-GCC-Region-48934 Les Oakshott
    Oil Consumption: Data 2003-2017

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Oil Consumption: Index 2003-2017

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Oil Consumption: Index 2003-2017

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Oil Consumption: 2003-2017

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Oil Consumption: 2003-2017

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Oil Consumption: 2003-2017

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Oil Consumption: 2003-2017

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Oil Prices & Inflation: 2003-2017

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott
    Inflation adjusted oil prices: 2003-2017

    Essential Quantitative Methods 5th Edition

    Les Oakshott

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