Diffusion of Green Technologies in Taiwan:

Open Innovation Roadmap for Light Electric

Vehicles with Constructive Mixed Approach
PhD Proposal by: Tamer Z. Fouad
In partial fulfillment of the requirements for the
degree of doctor of philosophy in
business management, Collage of Business,
Southern Taiwan University of Science& Technology
Supervised by: Dr. Chang Chia-Hua & Dr. Yu-Chuan Huang
Abstract Table of contents
Chapter 1: introduction to the problem and solution
• 1.1. Industrial Pollution in the Asia-Pacific: Challenges for Taiwan
1.2. Green Transition in the Asia-Pacific: Opportunities for Taiwan
1.3. Light Electric Vehicles: Defining the Industry
1.4. Research outline
Chapter 2: Theoretical and Literature Review
• 2.1. Green marketing and E-mobility adoption
• 2.1.1 Green Marketing
• 2.1.2 Trust, media and attitude
• 2.1.3 Behavioral control, subjective norm and behavioral intention
 …Contents, continued
Chapter 3: Research Methodology& Design
• 3.1. Constructive Approach and Research Design
• 3.2. Quantitative Research: a Preliminary Study on Green Adoption in
Tainan
• 3.3. Metadata for innovative business process design
• 3.4. Strategic Mapping Techniques and Business Process Design Tools
• 3.5. Designing Industrial Service Blueprint for Smart Light Electric
Vehicles
• 3.6. Road-mapping and Growth Curves for Technology Trends
Forecasting
Chapter 4: Analysis, Results and Discussion (incomplete)
• 4.1. Quantitative Analysis& Results
• Metadata analysis and forecasting results
• Roadmaping future trends
 Abstract
• The research tackles the need for green transition in
Taiwan, with reference to Tainan
• The devastating effects of industrial pollution
• The importance of green technology diffusion (LEV)
• Literature discussed the role of green marketing for
diffusion as well as open innovation system\process
• A preliminary exploratory study assessed Tainan readiness
for transition followed by a strategy roadmap
• The study relied on constructive mixed approach with
several design techniques to construct a roadmap strategy
for Taiwan LEV industry
• The study also offers recommendations and implications
Chapter 1: introduction to the problem and solution
1.1. Industrial Pollution in APAC: Challenges for Taiwan
• Global Warming and Natural Disasters in APAC
• Several studies tackled pollution effects in Taiwan. Losing
competitive position while focusing on less impact
transition
• Taiwan is ranked 4th globally in traffic related asthma
(420 out of every 100,000 kids suffer asthma due to road
traffic pollution every year.)
• The government is not serious enough in dealing with
public demands (retracting from 2018 plan) Pro Vs. Anti
• LEV has potential in Taiwan but face diffusion challenges
compared to gas scooters and lack of promotion,
technology& regulations
 Green Transition in APAC: Opportunities for Taiwan .1.2

• 1898 ‘Garden Cities of Tomorrow’. 1970s ‘balance between

urbanization and nature’. 1992 UN “Earth Summit”. 2017
Paris Agreement& green growth
• This paper is a new contribution to present the latest
updates in Taiwan regarding green growth
• Research found positive effect of green innovation and
product development on the financial performance of
Taiwanese Hi-Tech companies
• Taiwan red hazard program aims to reduce CO2 emissions
with deadlines to replace fossil fuel transportation by E-
vehicles starting with motorcycles and cars by 2035 and
2040 respectively while buses will be replaced by 2030.
however the plan stopped in 2019
• Taiwan government is trying to foster EV market first
• Stricter requirements for factories, companies, restaurants,
retailers, ports, and constructions
• Taiwan follows the European trend to offer subsidies for E-
Mobility diffusion
• Scooters are a main source of pollution. Shared electric
scooters was one solution (i.e. WeMo). Kaohsiung green
initiatives include shared E-Cars
• Yet Government subsidies are not effective
• The issue of green promotion and awareness
• Industry leaders try to invest in green technologies, but lack
gov. support. Gogoro is a successful case using unique
system. China is more successful market for E-scooters
• Taiwan took initiative (by 2025) to gradually phase out
nuclear and fossil energy towards renewable energy (50 $
billion investment) with social involvement
 1.3. Light Electric Vehicles: Defining the Industry

• 1st wave in late 19th century, 2nd wave in the 1960s-

70s, 3rd wave in the 1990s CARB& post 2005 wave
 1.4. Research outline
• The objectives are to explore green adoption attitudes in
Tainan, assess EV market potential& design future
roadmap strategy with innovation blueprints
•
 Extended TAM (with DOI, TRA& TPB)
External Variables DOI TAM
Network Effect Compatibility Perceived
Ease of Use
Perceived
njoyment
Perceived Perceived
Risk Usefulness
vernment
Support

Subjective
TRA Norm
Behavioral
Intention

Behavioral
TPB Control
 Research questions
• What are the key factors in the proposed framework driving
positive consumer attitudes to adopt E-Mobility in Tainan?
• Does the proposed framework need to be extended with
other factors for actual buying behavior?
• How effective green media& ads in shaping green lifestyle
and minimizing perceived risk
• To what extent Tainan youth are ready for E-Mobility
adoption ?
• Is E-Mobility market in Tainan ready for diffusion?
• What are they key challenges for E-Mobility adoption and
diffusion in Tainan?
• Is there different responses between different majors,
students with or without E-Mobility experience and
 Research Scope and limitations
• This research focuses on 2 wheel E-Mobility only (i.e. E-Bikes& E-
scooters). Further research need to consider other E-Mobility
means of transportation
• This research focuses on Tainan city. Further research need to
cover the whole Taiwan
• This research focuses on youth with reference to university
students. Future research should consider other segments of
society (i.e. elderly)
• This research focuses on transition into green cities with
reference to E-Mobility. Further research need to consider
adoption of other green technologies
This research focus on Extended TAM factors in early stage of pre
and early adoption. Further research should consider more
factors and models related to behavioral intention and actual
 Significance and contribution
• The study is crucial for societal wellbeing , and healthier
environment
• The study can help government and industry leaders to
assess the current situation of E-Mobility market potential
and social readiness in Tainan
• The study can help identify the key success factors and
challenges for E-Mobility diffusion in Tainan
• The study can help develop better and more convenient E-
Mobility products appealing to youth in Tainan
• The study can fill the research gap and help academia by
developing and testing a framework to better understand
the key factors , drivers and challenges for E-Mobility
adoption and diffusion in early stages
 Chapter 2: Theoretical and Literature Review
2.1. Green Marketing& Adoption
• Green or sustainable marketing can also be defined as
the organization’ effort for designing, promoting,
pricing, and distributing green products that do not
harm the environment (Pride & Ferrell, 1993)
• Started in the mid-1970s when practitioners realized
how marketing activities are affected by environmental
issues, especially over consumption (Fisk, 1974).
• Green marketing as a solution rather than problem
• Some estimates consider green marketing to worth
$3.5 trillion by the year 2017 due to the increased
environmental awareness
• Green marketing creates demand for green products
 …Green marketing, continued
• Green marketing\ adoption can positively influence green
attitudes. Literature gap: developing countries& consumer
awareness (i.e. media).
• Media is crucial to educate customers and raise awareness
(i.e. moral vs. rational choice theories) H4 mediating effect
• H1: green media affects green trust (Davis, 1994; Nath,
2016).
• H2: green trust positively affects green attitude
(Khandelwal & Bajpai, 2011; Kim et al., 2014; Punyatoya,
2015; Rosli & Ahmed, 2018).
• H3: Green media can positively affect green attitude(Bord
et al., 1998; D’Souza and Taghian, 2005; Lee, 2011;
 Green adoption

One empirical paper Determinants of behavior

investigated Taiwanese relevant to climate change
consumer attitudes include media exposure,
towards green products knowledge (awareness) and
in the aftermath of the perception of cost-benefits
global economic crisis (PATCHEN, 2006)
in 2008. findings
include lower cost\
price and improving
the green innovation
and marketing
strategies (Tsay, 2009).
.Bass model (Mahajan, Muller, & Bass, 1990)
 Media \ advertising
• Understand innovation at the early diffusion stage
• Exposure is the chance for the public to read, view, or
listen to advertising messages via media channels
• Few studies examined green media exposure on youth.
Research requires mediator between media& attitude
(Lee, 2011). Few papers find links between media and
attitude (Bord, Fisher, & O’cooner, 1998). (Krosnick,
Holbrook, & Visser, 2000).
• Green advertising address the relationship between the
product or service from one hand and its related
environmental impact (Subhabrata Banerjee, Charles S.
Gulas, & Iyer, 1995)
 Trust
• “a willingness to depend on a product, service, or brand
based on the belief or expectation resulting from its
credibility, benevolence, and ability about its
environmental performance”
• Several papers rely on trust as influential factor for green
adoption (Y. Chen & Chang, 2012). (Kim, Park, Kwon,
Ohm, & Chang, 2014). (Yun & Lee, 2015).
• Green washing V.s. Green Trust
• Greenwashing is the misuse of green marketing and
advertising leading to the distrust or skepticism of
customers towards eco-products and attitude (Karna,
Juslin, Ahonen, & Hansen, 2001).
 Attitude
• Attitude can be understood as a favorable or unfavorable
feeling towards a matter or behavior influenced and
evaluated by person’s belief system and values.
• Hence, the beliefs-attitude link (or attitude towards
behavior), intention (or behavioral intention) and actual
behavior are explained in much detail in TPB in which
attitude can be used together with personality traits and
other conditions to predict, understand and indirectly
influence behavior (Ajzen, 1991).
• Moreover, attitude incorporates cognitive thought, affective
feeling and behavioral components while it can be generally
defined as: “a tendency or predisposition to evaluate an
object or symbol of that object in a certain way” (Katz &
Stotland, 1959).
 E-Mobility adoption literature
• Topics are classified into:
• Focusing on general behavioral adoption patters and factors
• Focusing on incentives and government support
• Focusing on strategy, systems, policy and business models
• Methods are classified into:
• Behavioral adoption studies
• Modeling approaches
• Qualitative, conceptual and review papers
• Key drivers include: price, technological readiness,
government support, network effects, social norms, social
responsibility, branding\ advertising, educational,
emotional& psychological factors
Chapter 3: Research Methodology& Design

Constructive research steps are:

• Find relevant practical problem with research potential
• Obtain general and comprehensive understanding of
the topic
• Construct innovative solution to solve the problem
• Demonstrate that the solution works with qualitative
or quantitative research and validate the conceptual
model
• show theoretical connections and research
contribution to the problem
3.2. Quantitative research: preliminary study
Table1. university distribution (by author)
Cumulative
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Percent
Valid KSU 16 19.8 19.8 19.8
NCKU 19 23.5 23.5 43.2
NUTN 23 28.4 28.4 71.6
STUST 23 28.4 28.4 100.0
Total 81 100.0 100.0

Figure 1. Original Research Framework (by author)

 Metadata
•• There
building a new
are notable version of data with context to existing
similarities
between theories of
raw data
innovation or creating
diffusion and another layer of information that
can better
adoption. describe
For instance in the actual raw data.
Roger’s innovation diffusion
theory, relative advantage and
complexity can be also tackled
in Technology Acceptance
Model (TAM) under
usefulness and ease of use
respectively.
• Recent literature highlighted the
role of innovation diffusion in
fostering sustainability in which
certain innovations such as electric
and hybrid cars can provide better
solutions and value to society by
preserving the environment and
offering more efficient products to
lower the cost for users in addition
to the promising business
opportunities and economic
 Open innovation process for NPD 3.4.2
OI involves external
actors to maximize
R&D, competencies
& competitive adv.
* leaders& IT role
several papers mapped and virtualized the innovation process
with Product-Service System (PSS) blueprinting for supply and
value chains
Most of research focus either on innovation diffusion or NPD
processes with little or no emphasize on the early stage of
innovation planning or the late stage of marketing and
commercialization
The Automotive supply chain industry is complex enough to apply
open innovation and outsourcing, but is it applicable to
crowdsourcing?
 Triple helix
• The increasing role of universities and academia (i.e.
incubation). Empowering citizens and civil society (i.e.
bottom-up approach ) adopting open innovation
 Table3. Examples of business process mapping for product service
industries
Mapping Application\area Use\benefit Author\paper
method\type
Product Service Water Purifier The blueprint illustrates service flow, product (Geum &
Blueprint Company lifecycle, and product service interactions Park, 2011)
with management and customers
industrial Machine tool comprehensive product service mapping for (Biege et al.,
service manufacturer manufacturing companies integrating various 2012)
blueprinting techniques to include sub-processes with
manufacturing and service stakeholders
Extended Supply and value Creating a system of systems to integrate (Jose, 2013)
IMAGINE chain\ networks different SME partners in consortiums to
blueprint: such as furniture standardize and facilitate communication,
and aerospace networking and reduce transaction cost for
industries collaborative manufacturing, supply and
value chain industries.

Roadmapping Water purifier, Using technology roadmap integrating (Geum et al.,

health sector, product and service interaction in technology 2011)
XEROX, Dell, roadmap and QFD for planning technology
ATM, RFID business and environment
Automotive and Using dual technology roadmaps for open (Geum, Kim,
chemical innovation partnerships between big Son, & Park,
industries enterprises for industry collaboration 2013)
 Blueprinting
• mapping technique providing clear modeling or
visualization for the service system by illustrating the roles
and interactions
 Business Process Mapping: the
Innovation Development Process
Figure 12. Industrial Service Blueprint for Aerospace OIA(Tamer Z. Fouad, 2014).
The Automotive supply chain industry is complex enough to apply open innovation and
outsourcing, but is it applicable to crowdsourcing?
some cases require crowdsourcing as a wider open innovation option if the industry or
technology development is difficult and slow, as in the case of electric vehicles.
The following techniques and methods of stage gate open innovation process and industrial
service blueprinting are integrated to help illustrate how automotive supply chain participants
can collaborate in producing electric vehicle by collaborating in R&D as well as knowledge
management involving not only main companies (OEM& Tier 1) as well as outsourcing
companies (Tier2& Tier3) but also crowdsourcing with individual innovators to boost innovation
and industry development.
Figure 19. GreenAuto1 Service Blueprint (by Author)
 4.4.3. Road-mapping & growth curve
• Technology roadmapping is a strategic analysis tool that
helps decision makers understand and cope with future
trends and evolution for certain products\services or even
whole industries. the generic roadmapping approach
illustrates the progress of technology strategy in response
to industry evolution. It may involve multiple analytical
tools such as environmental analysis, portfolio analysis and
supply chain analysis
• There are several approaches to develop or apply
technology roadmapping (i.e. T-plan, S-curve, Lucent)
depending on different factors such as the size of
organization, availability of information, purpose and scope
of analysis, nature of innovation (slow vs. fast development
cycle, incremental vs. radical), dynamic business
environment, and type of business\industry.
• The horizontal time sequence is used for short, mid and
long term strategies from left (past\present) to right
(present\future), while the vertical sub layers from top to
bottom explains market\industry trends, product\service,
technology, R&D and eventually organizational resources
and links.
• The top right side often represents the market pull and the
future opportunities while bottom left represents the
technology push and current strategy of how to capture
those opportunities.
Geum et al (2011)
Roadmaping
with S-Curve

• Technology future analysis tools such as roadmapping and

S-Curve can help make effective and sustainable
investment decisions for NPD.
• It is critical for industry players to understand and predict
the most promising technology portfolio and direction in
which they can achieve breakthrough developments
especially in disruptive technology areas to stay
competitive and cope with changing market demands.
• The rate of technology development can be modeled using S-curves
at different points based on different timing and innovation types.
• S-Curve can be applied as a technology lifecycle indicator for R&D
investments and output overtime, by understanding the evolution
of technology performance per unit of time or engineering effort.

• A company would prefer to invest in developing a new technology

when the existing systemperformance has reached the maximum
and the new system shows a better ratio of performance to
expense according to the cost-benefit concept& the law of
 .Figure 4. Adopters' Characteristics represented in S-Curve (Rogers, 2003)

Figure 7. change agents' involvement in supplying the new norm (Robert C., 2001).
 Roadmapping EV industry
• A major change from ICE in 20th century to EV in 21st
century
• Cars are related to US lifestyle& culture
• Reconsidering EV as a result of OPEC embargo in 1973.
• not only price and availability but also pollution
• Climate change and health threats awareness\activism
• In 1997 GM released EV1 and halting production in 2003
• Followers like Toyota, Honda, Lexus, Chevrolet& Ford.
• Plug in HEVs trend started to grow in 2010 improving
performance and cost as well as other issues (overheating)
to increase adoption.
• Tesla revived EV in 2009 by developing Roadstar& Model S,
followed by BYD E6, Nissan Leaf& Th!nk city
cadillac v16 \1930
Land Rover I\ 1948 \ Bugatti EB118
1998
RangeRover 2015
 ICE Vs. EV Vs. HEV Late 2000s Tesla Roadster& Model S,
Green Performance
BYD E6, Nissan Leaf& Th!nk city
Mid 90s~ early 2000s
GM’s EV1 & Toyota Rav4
Early 1990sToyota Estima& 3G Prius,
Chev. Tahoe, Lexus RX HEV, Ford Fusion - 2 0 12
20 1 0
Oldsmobile& Ford ~1900 C h ev
Q in , Ford
lt, B YD A qua
Vo ta
Porsche Mixte n & Toyo
Fusio
Benz 1885 1900
Motorwagen
Early 1990s 16-18 0 s To yota
L ate 199 nda Insight
cylinder trend Ho
t Prius&
Nikolaus 1860 1 s

Otto 1908 1940s-1980s SUV

Ford Model T trend growing
Flocken Elektrowagen 1888 Cadillac V-16 Roadster 1930
Ferdinand Porsche P1 1889&

Time~ 2010s _ 1960-2000 _ 1910-1950 _ 1860-1900

 1870-1910
EV roadmapping
1911-1951 1952-1992 1993-2033
Product Market

2nd Industrial WW1& urban mobility Oil Oil Ecological

revolution WW2 lifestyle crises wars reforms
Early EV Early ICEV Modern ICEV Hybrid& modern EV Smart EV

Ford Model T 3G Prius Tesla Roadster

1908 Tesla S Model
Toyota 1stToyota
Prius Rav4 Nisan Leaf

Coil Nickel Metal Hydride Li-Ion

.Tech

Nickel –zinc Lead Acid

Single tab multiple current-collect foldable end-

welding spots plate plate
R&D

positive electrode
insulating plate
current collector
 1973-1983
EV
1984-1994
roadmapping
1995-2005 2006-2016 2017-2027
Product Market

Oil 1973 Socioeconomic ICE Environment EV Smart\

Crisis industrial shift revolution awareness revolution Green EVs
Early EV Early ICEV Modern ICEV Hybrid& modern EV Smart EV

THEV3 CMC Towny SYM CMC Zinger Luxgen7 MPV CMC E-Veryca Foxtron B&C
Gogoro

THEV4 CMC Veryca Kymco PGO +Luxgen7 EV CMC P350 Luxgen n7

E-moving

Induction Lead Asynchronous Nickel Metal Li pulse width LiFe

.Tech

AC motor Acid brushless induction Hydride Ion modulation PO4

Open loop Brushed DC permanent Closed loop Li- Brushless permanent
controller magnet synchronous controller Polymer magnet synchronous

Single insulating transistor current- Switched lithium iron

VRLA
tab plate amplifiers collect plate reluctance phosphate
R&D

positive electrode Micro- phase 3 lithium- neodymium

current collector processor squirrel-cage manganese spinel magnets
One paper used dual technology
roadmaps for open innovation
partnerships for automotive industry
collaboration (Geum, Kim, Son, &
Park, 2013)
Figure 31. evolution of electric vehicle trend in Taiwan (by author)
 Fully Electric Cars
i.e. Luxgen E+, U5(
Symbols
)ThunderPower &
Green Performance & efficiency with less CO2
4wheel ICE vehicles
2wheel ICE vehicles
4wheel hybrid vehicles
2wheel hybrid vehicles
4wheel electric vehicles
2wheel electric vehicles
4wheel smart EVs
2wheel smart EVs

Luxgen Hybrid Cars

i.e. M7, V7, S5, S3,(
)U7, U6

Conventional oil-
Powered Cars

Time 1981-1990 1991-2000 2001-2010 2011-2020 2021-2030

 P3 50
CM C
Green Performance
V7
7,
CMC Gas Powered Cars , M
U 7
U6 &
Hybrid Luxgen Cars S 3 , )
, E+
Luxgen ,S5 V (
Fully EV Models 7 MP
Luxgen
3
o goro
Z in ge r ogoro2, y
G

e r ycaCMC ro Lite, Gce& Man obe

Scooters\Motorbikes
a ,CM CV ogo , Ni &B
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c o ro
Kym gShine ro,EE1
E-Scooters\E-Motorbikes ead Go g
vin Xp
eMo SYMe Ai1, Ai
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ymco M SYM PGO J N CO-
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Time2016-2026_2005-2015_1994-2004_1983-1993
 Growth curve application to forecast E-Vehicles industry in 3.6.4
Taiwan
With the help of logistic curves, one study
relied on bibliometric metadata using
databases for patent data and publication
citations to forecast patent trends and
emerging technologies including solar
batteries.(Bengisu & Nekhili, 2006).
Another paper relied on literature review
and secondary data with reference to
renewable energy production and
consumption rates in the U.S. using logistic
growth curve forecasting.(Daim et al.,
2012).
 Chapter 4: Analysis, Results and Discussion
• 4.1. Quantitative Analysis& Results
Table2. KMO and Bartlett's Test (by author)
Kaiser-Meyer-Olkin Measure of Sampling Adequacy. .712
Bartlett's Test of Sphericity Approx. Chi-Square 356.961
df 36
Sig. .000

Rotated component matrix Rotation sums Reliabilit

of square y
loadings
Component loadings Cronbach
{\
Comp Comp Comp

Communality
displayst

Cumulative%
Uniqueness
onent onent onen yle \

Variance%
1 2 t3
variables

alpha }α
(standard
items

Total
ized
items)
A1 .909 .019 .225 .877 .123 Attitude
reliability
Attitud

A2 -.897 -.075 -.076 .816 .184

29.480

29.480
α= .895
A3 .865 -.006 .128 .765 .235 2.653
e

M1 .045 .885 .216 .729 .271 Media

reliability
23.334

52.814
Media

M2 -.186 .776 .145 .757 .243

2.100

α= .761
M3 .425 .732 .109 .688 .312
T1 -.129 -.180 -.824 .833 .167 Trust
reliability
.296

.110

T2 .187 .017 .808 .729 .271

097

α= .788
ust