RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO

DAM SAFETY MANAGEMENT

Dr. R.K. Gupta

Former Chairman
Central Water Commission
 DAMS AND RESERVOIRS ARE INEVITABLE TOOLS

Needed for
• managing Water ressources
• mitigating droughs and floods
• producing low cost renewable energy
• storing energy to accomodate intermittent
WATER ENERGY renewable

Dam safety is a primary condition for their

sustainability and public acceptance.
FLOOD
CONTROL
 Dam Failure Number of Dams
Incidents

1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000

40
30
20
10
0
< 1900

0
1901-50

3
1951-60

7
1961-70

10

Cumulative
1971-80

3 1
1981-90
Cumulative

3
1991-00

9 2000-10
6

> 2010
NEED FOR DAM SAFETY MANAGEMENT
 NEED FOR DAM SAFETY MANAGEMENT
6000
5000 Failure Cumulative
Number of Dams

Increase
4000 Ratio In %age
3000
2000
1000
0
< 1900

1901-50

1951-60

1961-70

1971-80

1981-90

1991-00

2000-10

> 2010
0
0 1
3 3 3
Dam Failure

10 7 6
10 9
Incidents

20
30
Cumulative
40
 NEED FOR DAM SAFETY MANAGEMENT
6000 16 Before
Cumulative Yr 2000
5000 Failure
Number of Dams

Increase 11

Number of Dam Failure

4000 Ratio In %age
3000

Incidents
2000 < 5 Yrs > 5 Yrs
1000 (Dam Age at Failure)
3
0
< 1900

1901-50

1951-60

1961-70

1971-80

1981-90

1991-00

2000-10

> 2010
After
Yr 2000 12
0
0 1
3 3 3
Dam Failure

10 7 6
10 9 Established best practices in Dam
Incidents

20 Safety Management to be followed by

30 Dam Owners to ensure safety and
Cumulative sustainability to their dams.
40
 PILLARS OF DAM SAFETY

• Structural safety
– Normal operation and extreme conditions
– Standards, Guidelines
• Vigilance in surveillance and monitoring
– Understanding the performance of the
dam
• Emergency planning
• Sharing Lessons - Success and Failures
• Strong National & State Level Governance
• Owner Responsibility

• Risk Informed Decision Making

• Dams: Complex Structures.
• No ‘Unsafe dams’.
• Dams present risk/ hazard, and these are associated with dam
failures, and sometimes with miss-operation of dams.
 Two important factors:
(i) likelihood of a dam failure,
(ii) extent of damage & deaths it would cause.

The society in general is risk-averse:

“If consequences of an adverse event were to increase, society
will desire a decrease in the likelihood of such event.”
• Distress:
Occurrence or potential development of such conditions in the dam, which if left
unattended may impede the safe operation of dam for intended benefit, or may pose
unacceptable risks to life and property of people downstream.
Threat:
An event or condition that may result in a hazard occurring.

Failure Mode:
The mechanism by which a distress, initiated by threat, leads to failure of a dam.

•Dam safety mgmt:

• an integration of ‘safety evaluation’, ‘risk assessment’ and ‘risk management’.

• Risk:
product of ‘probability of failure’ and ‘measure of consequence’.
 CLASSIFYING THE HAZARD POTENTIAL OF DAMS

Assessment of Area affected by Dambreak

• Incremental Hazard
Vulnerability/Severity Assessment
Data Requirement

• Dam and Reservoir

• Topography

• Flood Characteristics and Inundation Maps

• Information about the community residing in the downstream area

• Implications for service and business

• Implications to objects of strategic/national importance

• Implications to environment
Approach for Hazard Classification for Dams

Assessment of the consequences in four major categories

• Capitol value of the project

• Potential for loss of life

• Potential for property damage

• Potential for environmental and cultural impact

Additive Weighing and Point Index Scheme
Dam Hazard Classification (Potential Consequences Index)
 RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO DAM SAFETY

Risk Assessment combines systematically results of engineering Risk Assessment

analyses, experience, engineering judgment and other information
to form a basis in decision making and risk management process. • Considers all plausible
scenarios of dam failure

• Compares the risk for one

Structural dam with the risk for another
Nonstructural dam
Monitoring and Surveillance
• Ranks the dam in a portfolio
Risk Analysis Risk Evaluation of dam
Risk Control Decisions

Risk Assessment • Identifies the most vulnerable

components in a dam system
Risk Management
• Helps in decision making for
prioritizing the investments
Relation between Risk Analysis, Risk Assessment, Risk Management
and Risk Governance
Classification of Potential Failure Modes
 RISK ANALYSIS

Risk analysis Types

Identification of Potential
Safety Reviews

• Qualitative
Failure Modes • Semi-Quantitative
Monitoring

Traditional • Quantitaive
Risk Analysis
Analyses
Risk Evaluation Risk Analysis Methods

• Event Tree Analysis

High Risk • Fault Tree Analysis
• Monte Carlo Simulations
• Bayesian Updating
• Bayesian Network
 Consequence Economic Losses (Rs in
Category Crore) Potential Loss of
Life

RISK ANALYSIS
C1 < 50 NIL
C2 50-500 1-10
C3 500-5000 10-100
C4 5000-50,000 100-1,000
C5 50,000-5,00,000 1,000-
10,000
C6 >5,00,000 >10,000

Moderate Risk FM 1

Low Risk
FM 2

High Risk
Risk Matrix (Qualitative Risk Analysis)
FM 3

Risk Matrix (Semi-Quantitative Risk

Analysis)
RISK ANALYSIS
• Risk analysis identifies all Potential Failure Modes
ensuring that all plausible scenarios are included,
which is generally not possible in traditional analysis

• Risk assessment in a single analysis look into the

potential of dam failure resulting from both extreme
and normal loading

• Risk matrices/diagrams provide insight and an

increased understanding of the threats, consequences
High Risk
and the risks associated with a dam breach

• A risk diagram gives a more complete understanding

of the safety of the dam than the conventional
analyses alone
 RISK MANAGEMENT APPROACH TO DAM SAFETY

Risk diagram enables one to consider both hazard

10-5 10-4 10-3

and consequences, so the risks, associated with an

Annulised Failure Probability, f

Inc Unacceptable Risks undesirable outcome.

Dam A To reasi
red ng • Using only the severity of consequences to
uce justi
risk fica classify dams and the need for rehabilitation is
s tio
n not fully justifiable.
10-7 10-6

Decreasing justification • Tolerability criteria helps in deciding the amount

To reduce risks Risks Tolerable only if
they satisfy ALARP
Principle
Acceptable Risks Increasing Justi-
10-8
(and so, the investments) of risk reduction
measures to be taken
• Risks can be reduced by reducing the failure

fication to reduce risks

probability of dam (increasing dam resilience
1 10 100 1000 10000 100000 through rehabilitation) or by reducing
Potential Loss of Life, N consequences by having robust EAP, early warning
system etc. Both measures are necessary for long
Risk Diagram : Tolerability Criteria term sustainability.
(as suggested by CWC)
 RISK CONTROL AND RESILIENCE ENHANCEMENT OPTIONS
FOR DAM SAFETY
The most effective risk control measure is proper design and construction i.e. risk prevention and
reduction measures.
The risk control and resilience enhancement measures shall start from planning stage and continue
in O&M stage.
Planning & Design Stage
Dam type – easy to raise, resistant to overtopping, provision for
emergency spillway, future scope for enhancing spillway capacity,
watershed conservation to reduce sediment yield & landslides,
hydrological observations, Risk analysis, identification of PFMs

Construction Stage
Ensuring quality control, measures during first filling of reservoir

O&M Stage
Inflow forecasting, Rule curve, Robust EAP, Monitoring, Surviellance,
Warnings, Maintenance, Training, Funds
 MINIMIZING HAZARD POTENTIAL OF DAM SHALL BE A
CONTINUOUS PROCESS
Demarcation of Flood zones corresponding to spillway capacity
outflows shall be made.

Demarcation of Breach Zone or inundation zone based on the results

of Dam Break Analysis shall be carried out.

Rules & regulations for land use and settlements in these zones are
necessary to reduce flood hazards as well as potential loss of life
during dam breach.

Emergency preparedness and EAP implementation methodologies

shall be periodically reviewed and improved to reduce response time.

Robustness of mechanism for co-ordination among all implementing

agencies shall be continuously reviewed and made technologically
advanced.
 SMALLER DAMS NEED SPECIAL ATTENTION
Piping / Bad
 42 No. of reported dam failures Workmanship
 26 dams were of height less than 25 m 14%
 36 were Embankment Dams

Others 17% 44%

Breaching
failure
Design flood for spillway capacity of a dam is generally based on its due to
height and reservoir volume. For smaller dams, generally it flooding
corresponds to flood of 1 in 100 year return period or SPF. 25%
Overtopping due Dam
Design flood for smaller dams shall be based on its hazard potential . to inadequate Failure
spillway capacity Causes
Smaller dams shall be made resistant to overtopping by use of new
designs and construction materials.
 USE OF LATEST TECHNOLOGIES FOR DAM SAFETY
Health assessment and health monitoring of dams is key to a successful dam safety management program.

Use of non-intrusive geophysical techniques to facilitate early

detection of anomalous seepage, piping, internal erosion and other
degradation issues in dams has shown good results.

The application of geophysical methods to dams enables detection of

problems in early stages and hence can become part of dam safety
surveillance program.

Use of Remotely Operated Underwater Vehicles for monitoring of

water covered surfaces and for non-destructive testing.

Use of Ground Penetrating Radar (under water) for condition

assessment of water covered surfaces like stilling basins.

Latest tools & technologies for monitoring, early warning, instrumentation and assessment shall be a inclusive part
of a dam safety management program.
.
 SYSTEMS APPROACH TO DAM SAFETY MANAGEMENT

Components of
Safety Funds
Dam Safety Management System
Review Instrumentation

Rules &
Regulations Monitoring A holistic approach to dam safety
management is needed.
Dam Safety
Management Dam owners shall develop dam safety
management system for their dams.
Training Rehabilitation
Performance of each component shall
be reviewed periodically for its efficacy
& adequacy
Risk EAP
Assessment Operation
 SAFE DAMS FOR SAFE FUTURE

Being linked to public safety and benefit assurance, strong Governance structures at all levels
are needed to implement and supervise the activities of dam safety management program.

A systematic holistic approach is to be applied for the success of dam safety management
program.

Dam safety management requires a multitude of disciplines and skills. Adequate manpower
and funds are to be pumped into the sector.

The dam safety management regime requires capacity development in the new areas and
spread of new knowledge amongst the practitioners.

Assuring dam safety is not a one time activity. Perpetual surveillance is the key for which all
the institutions will have to play their own role well.

Dams are needed for water, food and energy security. With the application of sound principles
dam safety management, safe dams can ensure a safe future to many future generations.
Thank You