Scribd Logo
Upload

Welcome to Scribd!

  • Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    elevationonlineind
    11 views5 pages
    This document discusses tools and techniques for organizational planning, including forecasting. It defines forecasting as creating predictions about the future based on environmental scanning to facilitate decision making. Forecasting is most accurate in stable environments. Quantitative forecasting uses math rules on hard data, while qualitative forecasting relies on expert opinions for less precise outcomes. The document also lists different forecasting techniques and recommends making forecasting more effective by using simple methods, comparing to no-change forecasts, using multiple methods, not assuming trend turning points can be predicted, shortening forecast time periods, and remembering forecasting supports decision making.

    Original Description:

    Copyright

    © © All Rights Reserved

    Available Formats

    PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd

    Did you find this document useful?

    Is this content inappropriate?

    Report this Document
    This document discusses tools and techniques for organizational planning, including forecasting. It defines forecasting as creating predictions about the future based on environmental scanning to facilitate decision making. Forecasting is most accurate in stable environments. Quantitative forecasting uses math rules on hard data, while qualitative forecasting relies on expert opinions for less precise outcomes. The document also lists different forecasting techniques and recommends making forecasting more effective by using simple methods, comparing to no-change forecasts, using multiple methods, not assuming trend turning points can be predicted, shortening forecast time periods, and remembering forecasting supports decision making.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    11 views5 pages

    Forecasting

    Uploaded by

    elevationonlineind
    This document discusses tools and techniques for organizational planning, including forecasting. It defines forecasting as creating predictions about the future based on environmental scanning to facilitate decision making. Forecasting is most accurate in stable environments. Quantitative forecasting uses math rules on hard data, while qualitative forecasting relies on expert opinions for less precise outcomes. The document also lists different forecasting techniques and recommends making forecasting more effective by using simple methods, comparing to no-change forecasts, using multiple methods, not assuming trend turning points can be predicted, shortening forecast time periods, and remembering forecasting supports decision making.

    Copyright:

    © All Rights Reserved
    Download as PPTX, PDF, TXT or read online from Scribd
    Flag for inappropriate content
    of 5

    ninth edition

    STEPHEN P. ROBBINS MARY COULTER

    Chapter
    Planning Tools
    9 and Techniques

    © 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. PowerPoint Presentation by Charlie Cook


    All rights reserved. The University of West Alabama
    Assessing the Environment (cont’d)
    • Forecasting
     The part of organizational planning that involves
    creating predictions of outcomes based on
    information gathered by environmental scanning.
     Facilitates managerial
    decision making.
     Is most accurate in
    stable environments.

    © 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 9–2


    Assessing the Environment (cont’d)
    • Forecasting Techniques
     Quantitative forecasting
     Applying a set of mathematical rules to a series of hard data
    to predict outcomes (e.g., units to be produced).
     Qualitative forecasting
     Using expert judgments and opinions to predict less than
    precise outcomes (e.g., direction of the economy).
    • Collaborative Planning, Forecasting, and
    Replenishment (CPFR) Software
     A standardized way for organizations
    to use the Internet to exchange data.

    © 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 9–3


    Exhibit 9–1 Forecasting Techniques

    • Quantitative
    • Time series analysis
    • Regression models
    • Econometric models
    • Economic indicators
    • Substitution effect
    • Qualitative
    • Jury of opinion
    • Sales force composition
    • Customer evaluation

    © 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 9–4


    Making Forecasting More Effective
    1. Use simple forecasting methods.
    2. Compare each forecast with its corresponding
    “no change” forecast.
    3. Don’t rely on a single forecasting method.
    4. Don’t assume that the turning points in a trend
    can be accurately identified.
    5. Shorten the time period covered by a forecast.
    6. Remember that forecasting is a developed
    managerial skill that supports decision making.

    © 2007 Prentice Hall, Inc. All rights reserved. 9–5

    You might also like