The impact of adaptation practices on crop

productivity in northwest Ethiopia: an

endogenous switching estimation
Course No. : 2203
Course Title: Rural Development

Presented to:
Presented by:
Sk. Faijan Bin Halim
Ahsan Habib Rasel; St. No.: 211513
Assistant Professor Saima Shakil Sana; St. No.: 211514
Economics Discipline Year: 2nd; Term: 2nd;
Khulna University Economics Discipline
Khulna University
 Terminology
• Climate Change and Variability (CCV)
Climate Change: Climate change has an influence on crop growth,
development, and weather patterns, resulting in droughts, floods, and
other extreme weather events that can affect the agricultural sector.
Climate Variability: Climate variability leads to irregular weather
patterns, affecting crop yields and growing conditions, making it
challenging for farmers to effectively plan and manage their crops.
• Adaptation Practices
Adaptation practices means farmers and agricultural systems
undertake to minimize the negative impacts of changing climatic
conditions on crop productivity. Some of the Adaptation practices are
adjusting planting times, diversification, soil and water conservation,
early warning systems, education and training.
• Crop Productivity
Crop productivity refers to the efficiency and effectiveness of
agricultural systems in producing crops, typically measured
by the amount of crop yield (harvested crop output) per unit
of land, time, labor, or other resources invested in the
agricultural process.

• Endogenous Switching Estimation

Endogenous switching estimation is a statistical method used
to analyze data with self-selection or treatment effects,
accounting for individuals' choices based on their
characteristics. It estimates treatment impact and selection
bias, providing insights into outcomes and is commonly used
in economics and social sciences .
 Introduction
• In a world where climate change and variability (CCV) create a long
shadow, smallholder farmers suffer the most severe effects of its
influence. In Africa, the number of food crises has tripled in the past
30 years (FAO 2014). The changing climate is causing a 50%
decrease in rain-fed farming and a 2-9% drop in the entire continent's
farming income.
• In Sub-Saharan Africa, two-thirds of the people depend on farming .
The 'carbon fertilization effect', triggered by elevated CO2 levels, has
led to unexpected plant growth, favoring crops like wheat, rice, and
soybean.
• Ethiopia, an African country, heavily relies on small-scale farming,
with most farmers contributing significantly to the country's food
supply. Their success is threatened by issues such as land damage,
unpredictable weather, and a lack of technology.
• Ethiopian farmers faced 16 major droughts since the
1980s, with 10 million and 5 million people
critically affected by drought in 2015 and 2017,
respectively. Erosion is also hurting land
productivity.
• Farmers are implementing strategies like crop
diversification, adopting soil and water conservation
practices (SWC), irrigation, agroforestry, tree
planting, and early warning systems to address
challenges. The report focuses on these specific
strategies for staple crops like Maize and Teff in
Ethiopia. Strategies' effectiveness is significantly
influenced by factors such as land size, access to
money, education, and information.
• It uses a special method to understand how these
strategies affect crop production during one harvest
season in 2016.

• The main goal of this report is to find out how

these strategies impact crop productivity in the Rib
watershed. This research not only adds to what we
know about climate change and farming but also
helps policymakers to make better decisions. It
recognizes that the impact of climate change and
adaptation strategies can be different in various
places and for different groups of people.
 Study Area
• The study was conducted in
i)Amhara Region;
ii)South Gondar Zone;
iii)Rib watershed.
 Study Technique
• The study is a based on a cross-sectional survey that
followed a qualitative and quantitative mixed approach.
• Primary data were collected through a i)household
survey questionnaire, ii)key informant interview and
iii)focus group discussion (FGD).
• Face-to-face key informant interviews with kebele1
development agents2 (DAs), Woreda3 and the zone heads
of agriculture and rural development provided the
specific village-level challenges and achievements of the
adaptation strategies. Five FGDs with farmers and one
with DAs were conducted.
• Development agents and farmers discussed their experiences
with rainfall and temperature trends and whether they are
truly benefiting from adaptation practices. The rainfall and
temperature secondary data were collected from the National
Meteorological Agency.

• The research followed a multistage sampling technique in

order to select sample households.

• First, the traditional agro-climatic zones of Dega and Woina

Dega were distinguished within the Rib watershed. Then,
Kebeles were randomly chosen from each agroclimate zone,
and the sample size was calculated proportionally to the size
of the agroclimate zone's home population. A total sample
size of 383 households has been taken here.
Theoretical framework
The theoretical framework for technology adoption is the
random utility model where farmers choose a strategy
that provides the highest utility among the given
alternatives. Suppose that there are two choices, j and k.
Uj = b′j Xi + εj
Uk = b′k Xi + εk

Uj > U k = 1
Uj < U k = 0
The endogenous selection and switching
regression model
• The switching regression was modeled in two stages.
The first is the selection model for climate change
adaptation denoted with the binary variable.

Ai∗ = Ziα + ŋi

Ai∗ = 1 if Ai > 0
Ai∗ = 0 otherwise
• The second stage is the outcome equation that split
the endogenous model into two. That is running a
separate regime or production function for the
decision of adapting and not to adapt.

Regime 1 to adapt y1i = X1ib1 + ε1i if Ai = 1,

Regime 2 not to adapt y2i = X2ib2 + ε2i if Ai = 0
• The error terms ŋi , ε1i and ε2i follow a tri-variate
normal distribution with zero mean and the
covariance matrix is specified as:

σ2ŋ σ1ŋ σ2ŋ

Cov(ŋ, 11, 12)= σ1ŋ σ21 .
σ2ŋ . σ2 2
• In the presence of selection bias, the expectations of
the error terms for the two regime equations are
different from zero.

E[εi|Ai = 1] = σ1ŋ (∅(Ziα) /φ(Ziα) = σ1ŋλ1i,

E[ε2i|Ai = 0] = − σ2ŋ (∅(Ziα) /1 − φ(Ziα) = σ2ŋλ2i,

where .
∅(.) is the standard normal probability distribution.
. Φ(.) is the standard normal cumulative distribution
• The correlation between the error terms of the production
and the selection equations are shown as the correlation
coefficients.

ρ1 = σ21ŋ / σŋσ1 ,

ρ2 = σ22ŋ / σŋσ2

The significance of the estimated co-variances of ρ1ŋ and ρ2ŋ

reflect that the decision to adapt and yield are correlated,
that reject the null hypothesis of sample selectivity bias.
The treatment effect of adaptation

• The impact of adaptation practice on productivity is

estimated using the endogenous regression model
where the adapters are considered as the treatment
group (Ai=1) with the estimation of their
counterfactual.

Adapter E[y1i|Ai = 1] = Xliβ1 + σ1ŋλ1i,

Non-adapters E[y2i|Ai = 0] = X2iβ2 + σ2ŋλ2i.

• In a similar fashion, the equations for the
counterfactual yield of adapters and non
adapters are:

Adapter counterfactual
E[y1i|Ai = 1]= X1iβ2 + σ2ŋλ1i,

Non-adapters counterfactual
E[y2i|Ai = 0]= X2iβ1 + σ1ŋλ2i.
• Then the average treated impact of yield for those is
computed as:

ATT = E[y1i|Ai = 1] − E[y2i|Ai = 1]

= Xli(β1 − β2) + (σ1ŋ − σ2ŋ)λ1i.

• And the predicted impact of adaptation on yield for

non-adapters (untreated) is:

ATU = E[y1i|Ai = 0] − E[y2i|Ai = 0]

= X2i(β1 − β2) + (σ1ŋ − σ2ŋ) λ2i
Results and discussion
Impact of adaptation strategies
Average expected yield (kg/hectare) and net crop
income; treatment and heterogeneity effects.
Determinants of crop yield

The variables that are significantly associated with

Maize yield are:
• Age of the farmer
• Seed type
• TLU
• Credit
• Contract with development agents
• Urea, compost
• Soil type
• Rainfall and temperature
The variables that are significantly associated
with Teff yield are:
• Farm size
• Credit access
• Soil fertility
• Marital status
• Compost
• Agro-climatic zone
Determinants of productivity for both technology adapters
and non-adapters:
• Marriage
• Age
• Improved seed
• Labor and fertilizer
• Contact with Development Agents
• Credit access
• Urea and compost
• Fertile soil
• Farm size
• Summer rainfall and increased temperature
 Conclusion
• The farming community has been coping with climate
change by reducing food consumption, selling livestock,
receiving aid, migrating, borrowing, and using stored
crops. The study identified improved seed,
diversification, irrigation, and modifying planting and
harvesting time as major adaptation strategies in the
study area.
• The study utilized an ESR model to investigate the
impact of adaptation strategies on the yields of staple
crops, particularly Maize and Teff.
• Farmers with access to credit have less likelihood of
increasing yields as it is not used for farm investment.
• Two important conclusions are drawn from this study. Firstly,
adapters have benefited from increased crop productivity.
Secondly, the model showed a systematic difference
(heterogeneity) between adapters and non-adapters.

• Three important policy implications are derived from this study:

i) Factor affects people who adapt differently from those who do
not adapt, it's essential to think about these differences when
trying to help them.
ii) People's adaptation to changes relied on owning productive
assets like animals and understanding weather conditions. To
improve adaptation and increase crop growth, it's crucial to
provide these assets and weather information.
iii) Access to credit is negatively associated with crop production.
Interventions should revisit how credit is accessed, used and
returned by farmers.
 Thank You
For Listening