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Outline
1. Important Considerations: Atmospheric Science, Physical Processes.
5. Verification.
http://geocities.com/quincyq03/0207PPT.ppt
Why are models important to
weather forecasting?
• Weather is governed by laws of physics that are present in
space, our atmosphere and at the Earth’s surface.
• Equations have been derived and theorized to explain weather.
• These equations are often very complex and the linear aspect
does not sufficiently describe our atmosphere.
• Calculus/differential equations are necessary for calculations.
• These calculations take far too long to solve by hand and there
are many variables that must be considered.
• Forecast models have helped drastically improve
forecasting skill, accuracy and verification.
Atmospheric Science
• The study of Meteorology and forecasting is complex.
• There are many processes taking place, in addition to
many variables that affect weather patterns and events.
• Global circulation causes radiative forcings, that due to
the earth’s shape, creates wind and thermal gradients.
• Daytime and nighttime due to sunrise and sunset also
affect diurnal variances in wind and temperatures.
• The shape of the earth’s orbit around the sun also
creates seasons and variability in weather conditions,
since there are times when parts of the earth’s surface
are closer or farther away from the sun.
Atmospheric Science
• Solar heating and radiation from the earth also take place.
• Uneven surface heating due to many factors, including
terrain and bodies of water, creates a further imbalance.
• Drag and turbulence also play a role in the imbalance.
• Storm systems and air masses are advected (transported)
but are constantly evolving as well.
• Storm systems spin up, develop, mature and weaken, while
air masses are constantly modifying and moving.
• Convergence and divergence of storm systems and air
masses takes place…there is a LOT going on!
Processes and Variables to Consider
• Even the previous slides only begin to graze the surface,
as there is much more that drives weather!
• Introductory Meteorology courses aim to introduce the
student to just some of the basic fundamentals of
Meteorology! Further courses, especially Dynamics and
Thermodynamics get into more detailed and
mathematical analyses of these processes.
• The previous processes and variables all have
calculated and/or theoretical equations to describe them.
• Assumptions are made and without absolute knowledge,
the equations are often approximate.
• With that said, scientists have come to fairly accurate
equations and methods of forecasting.
(From Holton’s
An Introduction
to Dynamic
Meteorology)
MODEL INITIALIZATION...
...TROF PUSHING INTO THE W D1-2 AND THRU THE CNTRL CONUS D3... THE NAM IS
TOO COLD WITH H85 TEMPS OVER WRN TX AND THE ADJACENT RIO GRANDE VLY BY
UP TO 6 C. THE GFS HAD SIMILAR ISSUES...BUT NOT TO THE DEGREE OF THE
NAM...WITH TEMPS OFF BY APPROX 2-3 C IN THE SAME LCNS. THE NAM AND GFS
MAY BE TOO COLD WITH THE H85 TEMPS AHEAD OF THE TROF OVER THE SRN
PLAINS/LWR MS VLY INTO THE FORECAST PD AS A RESULT. TO THE N...THE
NAM...AND TO A LESSER EXTENT THE GFS...DID NOT DO A GOOD JOB
INITIALIZING THE STRENGTH OF THE H85 TEMP GRADIENT OVER NERN CAN/ERN
AK...WITH THE NAM AND GFS UP TO 3-4 C TOO WARM WITH THE COLD POOL OVER
THE YUKON AND UP TO 4 C TOO COLD OVER NRN B.C./ALBERTA. SOME OF THIS
AIRMASS IS XPCTD TO PHASE WITH THE TROF OVER CONUS LATER IN THE PD. THE
NAM AND GFS MAY NOT BE ACCURATELY DEPICTING THESE AIRMASSES AND THE TEMP
GRADIENT IN THE FORECAST PD.
Model Run
• Once an initialization takes place, models then use the
initialization data and equations to extrapolate a forecast.
• Models need a method for time-stepping. (extrapolation)
• Explicit Time Differencing involves the a predicted value
to be determined at a given point for time step S+1, from
the previous time step, S.
• Implicit Time Differencing is more complicated and
includes the steps of S+1 and S-1.
• The latter system is more complicated and takes up
much more computer power, but has many advantages.
Model Run
• As a model continues a forecast from the starting time,
00(hr) and continue out from there. (+6hr, +12hr, etc)
• Models are run out under their limitations and setups,
until the process is adjusted or ends.
• For example, with the Global Forecasting System (GFS),
the model resolution is downscaled after 180 hours.
• Model accuracy tends to decrease over time.
• Since approximations are used at initialization and
throughout the model run, such a decrease in accuracy
with time can be expected. Also, the model is forecast
potential scenarios, so that must be considered as well.
Model Verification
Model Run Delay
• Models have so much data to ingest and work
with, that there is typically a long delay for their
forecasts.
• Depending on the model, this delay may be
anywhere from around 1 hour to even 6 or more
hours!
• For those of you who do view some model
output, this explains why you have to wait a few
hours after the initialization time to view the data!
Basics to Model Viewing
• The time scale that the vast majority of the
models use is Universal Time (UTC)
• During Standard Time (fall/winter), UTC is
5 hours ahead of Eastern Standard Time.
• During Daylight Savings Time, UTC is only
4 hours ahead of Eastern Savings Time.
• UTC is also known as Zulu (z) time.
Main Types of Models
• Operational models
– The ones that are most common & numerous.
• Ensembles
– Several members with slight variations.
The Operational Model
• This model is the standard run for most
models.
• The NWS Forecast Discussions will often
refer to these runs as the “OP run”.
• The GFS, NAM, ECMWF, GGEM, etc all
have an operational model – the one used
“the most”.
Model Output Statistics (MOS)
• This model is based off of its operational
counterpart, but has many adjustments to it.
• MOS forecasts are used to fine-tune and adjust
the operational output.
• MOS will output more detailed information, than
what can generally be derived from the OP run.
• Statistical analyses are used to further adjust the
forecasts for individual stations, seasons, etc.
More on MOS
• The most common example of a MOS model
would be the GFS MOS (MAV and MEX).
MOS Wrap-up
Ensemble Forecasts
• Ensembles are created from the operational
models in two different ways:
1. Different physical parameterizations
2. Various initial conditions.