Probability

Concept of Probability
• Throughout our lives we are confronted with decision
making situations that involves an uncertain future
• The subject most useful in effectively dealing with such
uncertainty is contained under the heading of probability
• Example: ‘ How likely is that tomorrow will be a sunny day’
• In most cases respondent to this questions as saying “good
chance”, Very likely or quite possible
• These are qualitative answers, which often are not enough to
realize their relative weights
• Probability theory enables us to attach appropriate numerical
weights to these queries with certain degree of confidence
 Definition of Probability
• “ Probability is a number that represents the
chance that a particular outcome will occur if the
experiment is conducted”
• The range of possible values for probability is 0 to 1
• If the particular outcome is assigned a probability 1,
that assignment means that particular outcome is
certain to occur
• If the particular outcome is assigned a probability 0,
that assignment means that particular outcome is
certain not to occur
 Some Basic Definition
• Random Experiment:
- A random experiment can be defined as any process which
is repeated under given condition with uncertain outcome
Example: Tossing a coin
• Outcome:
- The results of an experiment are known as outcome
Example: In coin tossing experiment, head is outcome
• Events:
- One or more outcome of an experiment constitute an
events.
 Some Basic definition
• Sample Space:
- A sample space of an experiment is a set or collection of all possible outcomes of
the same experiment and usually denoted by “S”
Example: When we toss a coin, if H stands for head and T for tail then the
sample space S for possible experiment outcomes may be written as S={ H,T}
• Mutually Exclusive Outcomes:
- The occurrence of one outcome means that none of the other events can occur
at the same time
Example: Outcomes of tossing a coin, Head & Tail are mutually exclusive
• Collectively Exhaustive Outcomes:
- Outcomes of an experiments are said to be exhaustive if they include all
possible outcome. At least one of the event occur when an experiment is
conducted
Example: In throwing a die exhaustive number of outcomes are 6
Different Approaches to Probability
Approaches
to
probability

Objective Subjective

Classical Empirical

Based on Based on Based on

equally likely relative available
outcome frequency information
 Classical Approach
• Classical probability is based on the assumption that the outcomes
of an experiment are equally likely. Using the classical view point
the probability of an event happening is computed by dividing the
number of favorable outcomes by the number of possible outcomes

Number of favorable outcomes

Probability of an event =
Total number of possible outcome

• Example: On a single toss there are two possible outcomes head or

tail. It would be reasonable that two possible outcomes are equally
likely. Since the sum of the probabilities must be 1, both of the
probability of head and tail must be 1/2
 Empirical Approach
• Another way to define probability is based on relative frequencies. The
probability of an event happening is determined by observing what
fraction of the time similar events happened in the past
Number of favorable outcomes
Probability of an event =
Total number of possible outcome

Example: On February 1,2003 the space shuttle Columbia exploded. This

was the second disaster in 113 space missions for NASA. On the basis of
this information what is the probability that a future mission is successfully
completed ?

Probability of Success flight= 111/113= .98

So based on past experience, the probability is .98 that a future space

shuttle mission will successfully completed.
 Subjective Approach
• The likelihood of a particular event happening
that is assigned by an individual based on
whatever information is available

Example: Estimating the probability that

General Motor Corp. will lose its no 1 ranking
in total units sold to Ford Motor Co. within 2
years
 Some Rules of Computing Probability
• Rules of Addition:
If A & B events are mutually exclusive the
P( A or B)= P(A)+P(B)
For three events A,B & C
P( A or B or C)= P(A)+P(B)+P(C)

A B A B C
 Some Rules of Computing Probability
• Rules of Addition:
If A & B events are not mutually exclusive the
P( A or B)= P(A)+P(B)- P(A∩B)

A B

• Complement Rule:
P(A)= 1-P(~ A)

A (~ A)
 Problem
• An Automatic Shaw machine fills plastic bags with a mixture of
beans, broccoli and other vegetables. Most of the bags contain
the correct weight, but because of the variation in size of beans
& vegetables, a package might be underweight or overweight. A
check of 4000 packages filled in the past month revealed

Weight Number of Package

Underweight 100
Satisfactory 3600
Overweight 300

What is the probability that a particular package will be either

underweight or overweight
 Problem
• A student is taking two courses, Accounting & Statistics. The probability
the student will pass the accounting course is .60, and the probability of
passing the statistics is .70. The probability of passing both is .50. What
is the probability of passing at least one?
• The probability that a contractor will get a plumbing contract is 2/3 and
probability that he will not get an electric contract is 5/9. If the
probability of getting at least one contract is 4/5, what is the probability
that he will get both?
• In a high school graduating class of 100 students 54 studied mathematics,
69 studied history, and 35 studied both mathematics and history. If one of
these students is selected at random, find the probability that
1. The students takes mathematics or history
2. Does not take either of these subject
3. Takes history but not mathematics
 Rules of Multiplication
• Rule of Multiplication:
- Independence: The occurrence of one event has
no effect on the probability of the occurrence
of another event
If A and B are two independent event then
P( A∩B)= P(A).P(B)
For three independent events A,B, C
P(A ∩B ∩C)= P(A).P(B).P(B)
 Problem
• A survey by the American Automobile Association (AAA)
revealed 60% of its members made airline reservations last
year. Two members are selected at random. What is the
probability both made airline reservations last year?

• The probability that a bomber hits its target on any particular

mission is .80. Four bombers are sent after the same target.
What is the probability
1. They all hit the target
2. None hit the target
3. At least one hits the target
 Conditional Probability
• It is often important to be able to determine the
probability of one event given that another event is
known to have occurred
• Probabilities associated with the events defined on
the subsets are called conditional probability
• The conditional probability of C given M, denoted by
P(C|M) is defined by

P( M  C )
P(C M ) 
P( M )
 Problem
• The human resource department of a company has records which show the
following analysis of its 200 engineers
Age Bachelor’s Master’s Total
degree only degree only
Under 30 90 10 100
30-40 20 30 50
Over 40 40 10 50
Total 150 50 200

If one engineer is selected at random from the company

1. The probability he has only a bachelor’s degree
2. The probability he has a master’s , given that he is over 40
3. The probability he is under 30, given that he has only a bachelor’s degree
 Problem
• The probability that a married man watches a certain
TV show is .40 and that a married women watches
the TV show is .5. The probability that a man watches
the show given that his wife does, is .70. Find
1. The probability that a married couple watches the
TV show
2. The probability that a wife watches the TV show
given that her husband does
3. The probability that at least one person of a married
couple will watch the show
• A coin is biased so that a head is twice as likely to occur as a tail.
If a coin is tossed twice, what is the probability of getting 1)
exactly two heads 2) a head and a tail ?
• Suppose the following table is constructed from a survey on
employees attitude towards the management of a company:
Sex of Attitude toward management
employee Good Fair Bad

Male 20 35 45
Female 36 44 20

If an employee is selected at random from the company , find the

probability that
i) The employee is female.
ii) Opinion the employee toward management is good .
iii) The employee is a male with bad attitude towards management
iv) The employee’s attitude is fair given that the person is a female.
 Bayes Theorem
• Let A1, A2,……, An be n mutually exclusive
and exhaustive events whose union is the
universe and let B be an event in the universe
such that P(B)≠0. Given that P(B|Ai), P(Ai)
(i=1,2,3……….n) are known

P( A B) 
A
P( B ) P( A )
i i
i n

 P( B A ) P( A )
i i
 Problem
• A company has two plants to manufacture scooters. Plant 1 manufactures
80% of the scooters and plant 2 manufactures 20% . At plant 1, 85%
scooters are rated as standard quality. At plant 2, only 65% scooters are
rated as standard quality
1. What is the probability that a customer obtains a standard quality scooter
if he buys a scooter from the company?
2. What is the probability, that a scooter came from plant 1, if it is known
that the scooter is of standard quality?
• Dr. Satller has been teaching basic statistics for many years . She knows
that 80% of the students will complete the assigned problems. She has
also determined that among those who do their assignments , 90% will
pass the course. Among those students who do not do their homework,
60% will pass. Mike took statistics last semester from Dr. Stallter and
receive a passing grade. What is the probability that he completed the
assignment ?
 Problem
• A department store has two suppliers of ballpoint pen. One supplier provides
Indian ball pen and other provides Bangladeshi ball pen, which is supposed to
be very similar to Indian pens. Packets of ballpoint pens are selected from the
stock of which 60% is Indian & 40% Bangladeshi. A particular customers
capabilities are such that he can correctly identify the Indian pen 95% of the
time that it is provided unidentified and he can correctly identify the
Bangladeshi pen 90% of the time that is provided unidentified.
1. If a customers arrives at the store and picks up a packet of ball pen, what is the
probability the pen is Indian?
2. What is the probability that the customer will pick up Bangladeshi ball pen &
correctly?
3. If the customers orders a pack of ball pen and tries to identify it, what is the
probability that he will be correct in his guess?
4. If the customers orders a pack , examines it, and finally identifies it as
Bangladeshi, what is the probability that it actually is Bangladesh made?