CHAPTER 5

Probability: What Are

the Chances?
5.3
Conditional Probability and
Independence

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition

Starnes, Tabor, Yates, Moore

Bedford Freeman Worth Publishers

 Conditional Probability and Independence
Learning Objectives
After this section, you should be able to:

 CALCULATE and INTERPRET conditional probabilities.

 USE the general multiplication rule to CALCULATE probabilities.
 USE tree diagrams to MODEL a chance process and CALCULATE
probabilities involving two or more events.
 DETERMINE if two events are independent.
 When appropriate, USE the multiplication rule for independent events to
COMPUTE probabilities.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 2

 What is Conditional Probability?
The probability we assign to an event can change if we know that some other event has
occurred. This idea is the key to many applications of probability.
When we are trying to find the probability that one event will happen under the condition that
some other event is already known to have occurred, we are trying to determine a conditional
probability.

The
The probability
probability that
that one
one event
event happens
happens given
given that
that another
another event
event
is
is already
already known
known to to have
have happened
happened is
is called
called aa conditional
conditional
probability.
probability.

Suppose
Suppose we we know
know that
that event
event A
A has
has happened.
happened. Then
Then the
the
probability
probability that
that event
event B B happens
happens given
given that
that event
event A
A has
has happened
happened
is
is denoted
denoted byby P(B
P(B || A).
A).

Read | as “given that”

or “under the
condition that”
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 Calculating Conditional Probabilities

Calculating Conditional Probabilities

To find the conditional probability P(A | B), use the formula

The conditional probability P(B | A) is given by

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 4

 Calculating Conditional Probabilities
Consider the two-way table on page 321. Define events
E: the grade comes from an EPS course, and
L: the grade is lower than a B.

Total
6300
1600
2100
Total 3392 2952 3656 10000

Find P(L)
P(L) = 3656 / 10000 = 0.3656
Find P(E | L)
P(E | L) = 800 / 3656 = 0.2188
Find P(L | E)
P(L| E) = 800 / 1600 = 0.5000
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 The General Multiplication Rule

General Multiplication Rule

The probability that events A and B both occur can be found using the
general multiplication rule
P(A ∩ B) = P(A) • P(B | A)
where P(B | A) is the conditional probability that event B occurs given
that event A has already occurred.

In words, this rule says that for both of two events to occur, first one must
occur, and then given that the first event has occurred, the second must
occur.

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 Tree Diagrams
The general multiplication rule is especially useful when a chance
process involves a sequence of outcomes. In such cases, we can use
a tree diagram to display the sample space.

Consider flipping a coin

twice.

What is the probability of

getting two heads?

Sample Space:
HH HT TH TT

So, P(two heads) = P(HH) = 1/4

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 Example: Tree Diagrams
The Pew Internet and American Life Project finds that 93% of teenagers
(ages 12 to 17) use the Internet, and that 55% of online teens have posted a
profile on a social-networking site.

What percent of teens are online and have posted a profile?

51.15% of teens are online and have posted

a profile.

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 Conditional Probability and Independence
When knowledge that one event has happened does not change the
likelihood that another event will happen, we say that the two events
are independent.
Two
Two events
events AA and
and BB are
are independent
independent ifif the
the occurrence
occurrence ofof one
one
event
event does
does not
not change
change thethe probability
probability that
that the
the other
other event
event will
will
happen.
happen. In
In other
other words,
words, events
events AA and
and BB are
are independent
independent ifif
P(A
P(A || B)
B) == P(A)
P(A) and
and P(B
P(B || A)
A) == P(B).
P(B).

When events A and B are independent, we can simplify the general

multiplication rule since P(B| A) = P(B).

Multiplication
Multiplication rulerule for
for independent
independent events
events
IfIf A
A and
and B
B are
are independent
independent events,
events, then
then the
the probability
probability that
that A
A and
and
B
B both
both occur
occur is
is
P(A
P(A ∩∩ B)
B) == P(A)
P(A) •• P(B)
P(B)

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 Exercise 65

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 Multiplication Rule for Independent Events
Following the Space Shuttle Challenger disaster, it was determined that the failure of O-ring
joints in the shuttle’s booster rockets was to blame. Under cold conditions, it was estimated
that the probability that an individual O-ring joint would function properly was 0.977.
Assuming O-ring joints succeed or fail independently, what is the probability all six
would function properly?

P( joint 1 OK and joint 2 OK and joint 3 OK and joint 4 OK and joint 5 OK and
joint 6 OK)

By the multiplication rule for independent events, this probability is:

P(joint 1 OK) · P(joint 2 OK) · P (joint 3 OK) • … · P (joint 6 OK)

= (0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977)(0.977) = 0.87

There’s an 87% chance that the shuttle would launch safely under similar
conditions (and a 13% chance that it wouldn’t).
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 Conditional Probabilities and Independence
Section Summary
In this section, we learned how to…
 CALCULATE and INTERPRET conditional probabilities.
 USE the general multiplication rule to CALCULATE probabilities.
 USE tree diagrams to MODEL a chance process and CALCULATE
probabilities involving two or more events.
 DETERMINE if two events are independent.
 When appropriate, USE the multiplication rule for independent events to
COMPUTE probabilities.

The Practice of Statistics, 5th Edition 40