Investigating of Long-Term Load Forecasting

Using Neural Network Techniques and Power

Expansion Planning (Case Study: Debre Work)

Alemante Ketema Melese

A thesis proposal Submitted to the department of Electrical Power and Control Engineering (Power
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Engineering)
 Contents:
 Introduction

 Background

 Statement of the problem  Review of Related Fields

 Objectives of the thesis  Materials and Methods
 Significance of the thesis  Methodology
 Scope the thesis
 Work Plan and Budget
 Literature Review
 Work Plan
 Theoretical Background • Budget Plan
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 Introduction
Background

 The electric power industry has evolved over many

decades, from a low power generator, serving a limited
area, to highly interconnected networks, serving a large
number of countries, or even continents [1].
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 To meet growing demand, good load forecasting and

expansion planning of the energy generation and power

substation is necessary to enhance people’s living standard.

 Electrical load forecasting is an important tool used to

ensure that the energy supplied by utilities meets the load plus
the energy lost in the system [2].

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 Statement of the Problem
 Balancing demand and power generation, power distribution

or power substation expansion planning is still very difficult

especially in developing countries like Ethiopia .

 Using a power or energy efficiently and effectively is not still

good and it needs to use the energy in wise way as the world
energy resource is scarce. 02/24/2024 5
 To use energy wisely, the power generation, transmission
and distribution system expansion planning should be
planned in a good way to match the power demand of the
society and to know the load demand of the future, there
should be a very good load forecasting technique.

 knowing the future power demand in Ethiopia like Debre Work is

still not good, so this thesis will address such problems.
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 Objective of the Thesis

General Objective
• To investigate long term load forecasting using neural network technique and
design power expansion planning in Debre Work.

Specific Objectives

 To determines the future trend of electricity consumption of Debre Work

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starting from the year 2023 to 2038.

 To design substation and transmission line system expansion

planning of Debre Work using PSSE to test technical

feasibility so as to meet the load demand.

 To design a forecasting algorithm to predict future electricity

consumption in Debre Work and to test performance
assessment parameters.

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 Significance of the Thesis
 To know the load or power demand for future ten years of Debre Work.

 It provides load expansion planning to meet the forecasted load of Debre Work.
 The loss and energy supply gap will be reduced by giving a key direction what
will be the energy demand of Debre Work for Debre Work administration and
Ethiopian electric power corporation organization, EEPCO.

 To non-governmental and public services to plan and invest by knowing the exact
power demand and energy supply relationship in Debre Work.
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 Scope of the Thesis
 Investigating long term load forecasting using neural network techniques and
doing on power expansion planning in Debre Work.

 First, definition and importance of load forecasting is explained.

 Second, techniques that are used in load forecasting will be explained.
 load forecasting factors or parameters will be collected.
 Training and testing of load forecasting is carried out in MATLAB platform using
neural network MATLAB Toolbox and codes.
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 Performance assessment parameters will be addressed such
as mean absolute error (MAE), mean absolute percentage
error (MAPE), root mean square error (RMSE) and the
regression coefficient square (R2).

 Finally,disribution substation expansion planning is

performed using PSSE software to meet the forecasted
demand of Debre Work
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 Literature Review
Theoretical Background
 The word planning stems of the transitive verb to plan means

to arrange a method or scheme beforehand for any work,

enterprise, or proceeding [1].

 The systematic planning of power systems is an indispensable part of power

system engineering, but it must not be limited to the planning of individual
system components of equipment, which can result in sub-optimal solutions
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 Review of Related Fields
Number Year Reference Tittle Method Gaps

1 2018 15 A Novel Method for Use LSTM-RNN Training  Weather factors, special
LTLF with Hourly Technique days
Resolution  GRU

 expansion planning are no

included
2 2019 26 studies on Use General Stochastic  No ANN & Deep Learning
transmission Regression Techniques algorithms
expansion planning  No Economical feasibility
study
 Only GDP & EP

3 2020 23 generalized GRNN Compared with  No R2, only resource based

regression neural FFBNN & CFBNN  No factors like cost, LF,
network for long- temperature & pop
term electricity load  It does not see the
forecasting limitation of RNN 13
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 An adaptive backpropagation
algorithm for long-term
4 2021 24 electricity load forecasting
Comparison of ABPA  No factors like GDP,
with ANN & RNN to POP, LF, EP, Tem.,
show its superiority special and holly days
 It was sectoral based
only
 Not include GRU in the
comparison

Long-term forecasting of  K-means Clustering  No CNN-LSTM

electricity demand using hourly Algorithm  Performance
resolution  and Generalized measurement parameters
5 2021 25 adaptive model do not show good result
for the selected model
that is ANN

LSTM with NP through ANN It used hour, day and  No GRU

year head resolution for  Only POP data
the proposed method to  it was not multivariant
6 2022 20 compare with d/t
methods

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 Materials and Methods
•To attain the objectives of the thesis, the following methods will be followed.
A.Review literatures related to load forecasting problems and expansion planning
B. Identify the existing problem in the Debre Work substation and transmission
system.
C. Identify the adequate load forecasting technique for the long-term load
forecasting.
D. Analyze the load forecasting performance measurement parameters such as MAE,
MAPE, RMSE and R2.
E. Finally, apply transmission and substation system expansion planning for the
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forecasted load
Work Plan

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Cost Breakdown

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THANK YOU!

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