Taylor Introms12 PPT 14

Simulation
Chapter 14
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-1

Chapter Topics
■ The Monte Carlo Process

■ Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets
■ Simulation of a Queuing System
■ Continuous Probability Distributions
■ Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results
■ Crystal Ball
■ Verification of the Simulation Model
■ Areas of Simulation Application

Overview
■ Analogue simulation replaces a physical system with an

analogous physical system that is easier to manipulate.
■ In computer mathematical simulation a system is replaced with

a mathematical model that is analyzed with the computer.
■ Simulation offers a means of analyzing very complex systems

that cannot be analyzed using the other management science
techniques in the text.

Monte Carlo Process
■ A large proportion of the applications of simulations are for

probabilistic models.
■ The Monte Carlo technique is defined as a technique for

selecting numbers randomly from a probability distribution for
use in a trial (computer run) of a simulation model.
■ The basic principle behind the process is the same as in the

operation of gambling devices in casinos (such as those in Monte
Carlo, Monaco).

Monte Carlo Process
Use of Random Numbers (1 of 10)
 In the Monte Carlo process, values for a random variable are
generated by sampling from a probability distribution.
 Example: ComputerWorld demand data for laptops selling for
$4,300 over a period of 100 weeks.
Table 14.1 Probability distribution of demand for laptop PCs

Monte Carlo Process
 The purpose of the Monte Carlo process is to generate
the random variable, demand, by sampling from the
probability distribution P(x).
 The partitioned roulette wheel replicates the probability

distribution for demand if the values of demand occur in
a random manner.
 The segment at which the wheel stops indicates demand

for one week.
Monte Carlo Process
Figure 14.1 A roulette wheel for demand

Monte Carlo Process
When the
wheel is spun,
the actual
demand for
PCs is
determined by
a number at
rim of the
wheel.
Figure 14.2
Numbered roulette wheel
Monte Carlo Process
Table 14.2 Generating demand from random numbers

Monte Carlo Process
Select a number from a random number table:
Table 14.3 A table of delightfully random numbers

Monte Carlo Process
 Repeating the selection of random numbers simulates

demand for a period of time. The next slide shows
demand for 15 consecutive weeks as drawn from the
random number table.
 Estimated average demand = 31/15 = 2.07 laptop PCs

per week.
 Estimated average revenue = $133,300/15 = $8,886.67.

Monte Carlo Process
Table 14.4 Randomly generated demand for 15 weeks

Monte Carlo Process
Average demand could have been calculated analytically:
n
E( x)   P( x ) xi i
i1
where:
x  demand value i
i
P( x )  probability of demand
i
n  the number of different demand values

therefore:
E( x)  (.20)(0)  (.40)(1)  (.20)(2)  (.10)(3)  (.10)(4)
 1.5 PCs per week

Monte Carlo Process
 The more periods simulated, the more accurate the results.
 Simulation results will not equal analytical results unless enough

trials have been conducted to reach steady state.
 It is often difficult to validate results of simulation - that true

steady state has been reached and that simulation model truly
replicates reality.
 When analytical analysis is not possible, there is no analytical

standard of comparison, thus making validation even more
difficult.
Computer Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets
Generating Random Numbers (1 of 2)
 As simulation models get more complex they become impossible

to perform manually.
 In simulation modeling, random numbers are generated by a

mathematical process instead of a physical process (such as
wheel spinning).
 Random numbers are typically generated on the computer using a

numerical technique and thus are not true random numbers but
pseudorandom numbers.

Generating Random Numbers (2 of 2)
Artificially created random numbers must have the

following characteristics:
1. The random numbers must be uniformly
distributed.
2. The numerical technique for generating the
numbers must be efficient.
3. The sequence of random numbers should reflect no
pattern.

Simulation with Excel Spreadsheets (1 of 3)
Exhibit 14.1
Enter =VLOOKUP(F6,Lookup,2)
in G6 and copy it to G7:G20
Enter =4300*G6
in H6 and copy
it to H7:H20
= AVERAGE(G6:G20)
Generate random numbers for cells
F6:F20 with the formula
=RAND( ) in F6 and copy it to
Exhibit 14.2
F7:F20
Click on the “View” tab, then on “Freeze Panes”
Spreadsheet is “frozen” at row 16 to show first 10 weeks and last

6
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd.
Exhibit 14.3 14-19
Decision Making with Simulation (1 of 2)
Revised ComputerWorld example; order size of one laptop each week.
=1+MAX(G6-H6,0) is entered =VLOOKUP(F6,Lookup,2) is
in G7 and copied to G8:G105 entered in H6 and copied to
H7:H105
=G6*50 is entered in
Shortages are computed by entering cell L6 and copied to
=MIN(G6-H6,0) in I6 and copying to I7:I105 L7:l105
Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Exhibit 14.4 14-20
Decision Making with Simulation (2 of 2)
Order size of two laptops each week.
New formula for two
laptops ordered per week
Exhibit 14.5
Simulation of a Queuing System
Burlingham Mills Example (1 of 3)
Table 14.5 Distribution of arrival intervals
Table 14.6 Distribution of service times

Average waiting time = 12.5days/10 batches

= 1.25 days per batch
Average time in the system = 24.5 days/10 batches
= 2.45 days per batch
Caveats:
■ Results may be viewed with skepticism.
■ Ten trials do not ensure steady-state results.
■ Starting conditions can affect simulation results.
■ If no batches are in the system at the start, the
simulation must run until it replicates normal
operating system.
■ If the system starts with items already in the system,
the simulation must begin with items in the system.

Computer Simulation with Excel
Burlingham Mills Example
This formula is entered in
D15 and copied to D16:D23
Clock time is generated by

entering =MAX(E15,J14) in
F15 and copying to F16:F23
Copy
=VLOOKUP(H14,Lookup2,2
) to I14:I23
Arrival times are generated
by entering =E14+D15 in =AVERAGE(G14:G23)
E15 and copying to E16:E23 Exhibit 14.6
Continuous Probability Distributions
A continuous function must be used for continuous distributions.

Example:
f(x)  x , 0  x  4 where x  time (minutes)
8
Cumulative probability of x:
xx x x
1 1 1 2
F(x)   dx   x dx   x 
08 80 8  2 0
2
F(x)  x
16
Let F(x)  the random number r
x 2
r
16
x4 r
By generating a random number,r, a value x for "time" is determined.
Example: if r  .25, x  4 .25  2 minutes

Machine Breakdown and Maintenance System
Simulation (1 of 6)
Bigelow Manufacturing Company must decide if it should
implement a machine maintenance program at a cost of $20,000
per year that would reduce the frequency of breakdowns and
thus time for repair which is $2,000 per day in lost production.
A continuous probability distribution of the time between

machine breakdowns:
f(x) = x/8, 0  x  4 weeks, where x = weeks between
machine breakdowns
x = 4*sqrt(ri), value of x for a given value of ri.

Simulation (2 of 6)
Table 14.8 Probability distribution of machine repair time

Simulation (3 of 6)
Revised probability of time between machine breakdowns:
f(x) = x/18, 0  x6 weeks where x = weeks between
machine breakdowns
x  6 r1
Table 14.9 Revised probability distribution of machine repair time

with the maintenance program

Simulation (4 of 6)
Simulation of system without maintenance program (total
annual repair cost of $84,000):
Table 14.10 Simulation of machine breakdowns and repair times

Simulation (5 of 6)
Simulation of system with maintenance program (total annual
repair cost of $42,000):
Table 14.11 Simulation of machine breakdowns and repair with

the maintenance program
Simulation (6 of 6)
Results and caveats:
■ Implement the maintenance program since the cost savings
appear to be $42,000 per year and the maintenance program
will cost $20,000 per year.
■ However, there are potential problems caused by simulating
both systems only once.
■ Simulation results could exhibit significant variation since
time between breakdowns and repair times are probabilistic.
■ To be sure of accuracy of results, simulations of each system
must be run many times and the average results computed.
■ Efficient computer simulation is required to do this.

Simulation with Excel (1 of 2)
Original machine breakdown example:
Exhibit 14.7
From Table 14.8
Spreadsheet frozen at Copy

Copy = E14+D15 to =VLOOKUP(F14,Lookup,2)
row 24 to show first 10
E15:E113 to G14:G113
breakdowns and last 6
Simulation with Excel (2 of 2)
Simulation with maintenance program.
Revised formula for
Probability distribution or
time between
repair time from Table 14.9
breakdowns

Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results (1 of 2)
 Outcomes of simulation modeling are statistical

measures such as averages.
 Statistical results are typically subjected to additional

statistical analysis to determine their degree of
accuracy.
 Confidence limits are developed for the analysis of the

statistical validity of simulation results.

Statistical Analysis of Simulation Results (2 of 2)
Formulas for 95% confidence limits:

 x  (1.96)(s / n )
upper confidence limit
 x  (1.96)(s / n )
lower confidence limit
where
x is the mean and s the standard deviation from a
sample of size n from any population.
We can be 95% confident that the true population mean will be

between the upper confidence limit and lower confidence limit.

Simulation Results
Statistical Analysis with Excel (1 of 2)
Simulation with maintenance program.
Confidenc
e limits

Simulation Results
Statistical Analysis with Excel (2 of 2)
Click on “Data Analysis”
“Input Range” are

the cost ($) values
in column H
“Output Range”
specifies the
location of the
statistical summary
report on the
Statistical summary report spreadsheet
Exhibit 14.10
Crystal Ball
Overview
 Many realistic simulation problems contain more complex
probability distributions than those used in the examples.
 However there are several simulation add-ins for Excel that

provide a capability to perform simulation analysis with a
variety of probability distributions in a spreadsheet format.
 Crystal Ball, published by Oracle, is one of these.
 Crystal Ball is a risk analysis and forecasting program that

uses Monte Carlo simulation to provide a statistical range of
results.
Crystal Ball
Simulation of Profit Analysis Model (1 of 13)
Recap of the Western Clothing Company break-even and
profit analysis:
Price (p) for jeans is $23
variable cost (cv) is $8
Fixed cost (cf ) is $10,000
Profit Z = vp - cf – vc
break-even volume v = cf/(p - cv)
= 10,000/(23-8)
= 666.7 pairs.

Crystal Ball
Modifications to demonstrate Crystal Ball
 Assume volume is now volume demanded and is defined by a
normal probability distribution with mean of 1,050 and
standard deviation of 410 pairs of jeans.
 The price is uncertain and defined by a uniform probability
distribution from $20 to $26.
 The variable cost is not constant but defined by a triangular
probability distribution.
 We can determine the average profit and profitability with the
given probabilistic variables.

Crystal Ball
2. Click on “Define
Assumption”
1. Click on cell C4 to define

normal distribution parameters
=C4*C5-C6-(C4*C7)
Exhibit 14.11
Crystal Ball
Name pulled from

original spreadsheet
1. Enter mean and

standard deviation
2. Click “Enter” to
3. Click on “OK” to return
configure distribution in
to the spreadsheet
window
Crystal Ball
Enter minimum and

maximum values
for the distribution
Exhibit 14.13
Crystal Ball
Enter three
estimates

Crystal Ball
1. Click on “Define
Forecast”
2. Type in units
Exhibit 14.15
Crystal Ball
2. Click on “Start” 1. Click on “Run Preferences” to

to begin the indicate the number of trials and
simulation seed number
Exhibit 14.16
Crystal Ball
2. Go to the
“Sampling” screen to 1. Enter the number
enter the seed number of trials
Exhibit 14.17
Crystal Ball
Click here to
repeat the same
simulation
Exhibit 14.18
Crystal Ball
2. Click here to start 1. Click here to establish the number
the simulation of trials and the seed number
Click on “View”, then

“Statistics” to go to the Click here to reset
statistical summary Set new run the simulation and
screen (Exhibit 14.20) preferences run it again
Exhibit 14.19
Crystal Ball
Click on “View” to
return to the
Frequency window
Mean profit value
Exhibit 14.20
Crystal Ball
Exhibit 14.21
Move arrow to
“0.00” or set lower
limit equal to 0.00
Probability (.8136) that the

company will break even
Verification of the Simulation Model (1 of 2)
■ The analyst wants to be certain that the model is internally

correct and that all operations are logical and mathematically
correct.
■ Testing procedures for validity:
 Run a small number of trials of the model and
compare with manually derived solutions.
 Divide the model into parts and run parts separately
to reduce the complexity of checking.
 Simplify mathematical relationships (if possible) for
easier testing.
 Compare results with actual real-world data.

Verification of the Simulation Model (2 of 2)
■ The analyst must determine if the model’s starting conditions are

correct (system empty, etc.).
■ Must determine how long model should run to insure steady-state

conditions.
■ A standard, fool-proof procedure for validation is not available.
■ Validity of the model rests ultimately on the expertise and

experience of the model developer.

Some Areas of Simulation Application
■ Queuing
■ Inventory Control
■ Production and Manufacturing
■ Finance
■ Marketing
■ Public Service Operations
■ Environmental and Resource Analysis

Example Problem Solution (1 of 6)
Willow Creek Emergency Rescue Squad
Minor emergency requires two-person crew

Regular emergency requires a three-person crew
Major emergency requires a five-person crew

Distribution of the number of calls per night and emergency type:

Calls Probability Emergency Type Probability
Minor .30
0 .05 Regular .56
1 .12 Major .14
1.00
2 .15
3 .25
4 .22 1. Manually simulate 10 nights of calls
5 .15 2. Determine the average number of
6 .06 calls each night
1.00 3. Determine the maximum number of
crew members that might be needed
on any given night.

Step 1: Develop random number ranges for the probability

distributions.
Cumulative Random Number
Calls Probability
Probability Range, r1
0 .05 .05 1–5
1 .12 .17 6 – 17
2 .15 .32 18 – 32
3 .25 .57 33 – 57
4 .22 .79 58 – 79
5 .15 .94 80 – 94
6 .06 1.00 95 – 99, 00
1.00
Emergency Cumulative Random Number

Probability
Type Probability Range, r1
Minor .30 .30 1 – 30
Regular .56 .86 31 – 86
Major .14 1.00 87 – 99, 00
1.00
Step 2: Set up a tabular simulation (use the second column of

random numbers in Table 14.3).

Step 2 continued:

Step 3: Compute Results:
average number of minor emergency calls per night = 10/10 =1.0

average number of regular emergency calls per night =14/10 = 1.4
average number of major emergency calls per night = 3/10 = 0.30
If calls of all types occurred on same night, the maximum number

of squad members required would be 14.

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Simulation

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-1

■ The Monte Carlo Process

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-2

■ Analogue simulation replaces a physical system with an

■ In computer mathematical simulation a system is replaced with

■ Simulation offers a means of analyzing very complex systems

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-3

■ A large proportion of the applications of simulations are for

■ The Monte Carlo technique is defined as a technique for

■ The basic principle behind the process is the same as in the

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-4

Table 14.1 Probability distribution of demand for laptop PCs

 The partitioned roulette wheel replicates the probability

 The segment at which the wheel stops indicates demand

Figure 14.1 A roulette wheel for demand

Table 14.2 Generating demand from random numbers

Table 14.3 A table of delightfully random numbers

 Repeating the selection of random numbers simulates

 Estimated average demand = 31/15 = 2.07 laptop PCs

 Estimated average revenue = $133,300/15 = $8,886.67.

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-11

Table 14.4 Randomly generated demand for 15 weeks

n  the number of different demand values

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-13

 Simulation results will not equal analytical results unless enough

 It is often difficult to validate results of simulation - that true

 When analytical analysis is not possible, there is no analytical

 As simulation models get more complex they become impossible

 In simulation modeling, random numbers are generated by a

 Random numbers are typically generated on the computer using a

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-15

Artificially created random numbers must have the

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-16

Click on the “View” tab, then on “Freeze Panes”

Spreadsheet is “frozen” at row 16 to show first 10 weeks and last

Table 14.5 Distribution of arrival intervals

Table 14.6 Distribution of service times

Average waiting time = 12.5days/10 batches

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-24

Clock time is generated by

A continuous function must be used for continuous distributions.

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-26

A continuous probability distribution of the time between

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-27

Table 14.8 Probability distribution of machine repair time

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-28

Table 14.9 Revised probability distribution of machine repair time

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-29

Table 14.10 Simulation of machine breakdowns and repair times

Table 14.11 Simulation of machine breakdowns and repair with

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-32

Spreadsheet frozen at Copy

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Exhibit 14.8 14-34

 Outcomes of simulation modeling are statistical

 Statistical results are typically subjected to additional

 Confidence limits are developed for the analysis of the

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-35

Formulas for 95% confidence limits:

We can be 95% confident that the true population mean will be

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. 14-36

Copyright © 2016 Pearson Education, Ltd. Exhibit 14.9 14-37

Click on “Data Analysis”