Analyses of Rainfall

Mean Rainfall

Mean Annual Rainfall: determined by averaging

the total rainfall of several consecutive years at
a place (min 30-40 consecutive years)

Mean Monthly Rainfall: by averaging the

monthly total rainfall for several consecutive
years (at least 10 consecutive years)
Example: Mean Monthly Rainfall
Interception and Net Precipitation

□ Vegetation influence on pattern of deposition

and amount of precipitation reaching the soil
surface
□ Interception losses are less in arid and semiarid
regions that have sparse vegetation
□ Net precipitation is gross precipitation
(measured by gauge) minus interception loss
□ Net precipitation is the amount available either
to replenish soil water deficits or to become
surface, subsurface, or ground water flow
Effective Rainfall

 Rainfall component causing perceptible

change in the stream flow

 That is only a portion of the total rainfall

recorded over the catchment

 Rainfall that does not infiltrate the soil and

moves into the stream as overland flow
Index of wetness

Ratio of rainfall in a given year and average

annual precipitation
When it is
Less than 1 - bad year/deficient year/ dry year

More than 1 – good year / surplus year / wet year

Equal to 1 – normal year

Probable Extreme Rainfall Events
(Standard Design Storms)

1. Probable Maximum Precipitation

2. Standard Project Storm
3. Frequency based storm

Important for water resources engineering

Probable Maximum Precipitation (PMP)

Assumed physical upper limit of rain that will fall over a

specified area in a given time (that’s physically possible)

Rainfall for a given area and duration that can be

reached or exceeded under known meteorological
conditions

Used to provide an estimate of the Probable Maximum

Flood (PMF) hydrographs

For design of major structure with the threat of loss

of life PMP is used (where no risk of failure accepted)
Standard Project Storm (SPS)

Storm which is reasonably capable of occurring over

the basin under consideration (actually occurred)

The heaviest rain storm occurred in the region during

the period of rainfall records

Used for design project with economic considerations

and low risk
Frequency Based Storm

Frequency analysis of long term rainfall data

Flood/Storm Frequency
Flood frequency: number of times a particular
flood/storm can be expected in a river/watershed in a
given number of years

Example: 100 year flood – a flood that can be expected

once in 100 years. (usually worked out by extrapolating
the observed data)
Frequency is the percentage of years, during which a
storm of a given magnitude may be equaled or exceeded

Recurrence interval/return period: Time interval after

which a similar flood can be forecasted or expected.
 Frequency Analysis
Objective: to develop a frequency curve
• Precipitation frequency curves can be developed to
evaluate maximum events
• Used for planning water resources structures
• Relationship between the magnitude of events and either
the associated probability or the recurrence interval
• Weather systems vary year to year and hence magnitude
of future events can not be predicted accurately
• Have to rely on statistical analyses of rainfall amounts
over certain period
• Frequency distribution of past events
• Probability or likelihood of having certain events
occurring over a specified period is estimated
Recurrence Interval of a Storm
Number of years within which a given storm may equal or
exceed once - Also known as return period

Means this precipitation value or more than that occurs m times in n

Probability of Exceedance

The probability of occurrence of a flood

(having a recurrence interval T-year) in any
year,

Probability: Reciprocal of the return period

p = 1/ T
Frequency

Frequency: Probability expressed in terms of

percentage
Frequency = p * 100

Frequency of a rainfall of a given magnitude =

the number of times the given event may be
expected to be equaled or exceeded in 100
years
Example:
The probability of having a 24 hr rainfall event of
100mm or more in any given year is ?
about 0.025 (or a 40 year recurrence interval)
Once the frequency curve is developed, the probability of
exceeding certain rainfall amount over a specified period
can be determined
The probability that an event with probability p will be
equaled or exceeded x times in N years is determined by:

If x=0 (no occurrence in N years) then

Prob (no occurrence in N years) = (1-p)N
Therefore;
Prob (at least 1 occurrence in N years) = 1-(1-p)N

Q: the probability of having a 24 hr rainfall event of 100mm or greater over a 20

year period is (calculate p from previous graph)?
Solution to example

• What is the p for 100 years flood?

• Means probability of occurrence in one year = ?

• Prob of occurrence of 100 years flood in 100 years?

Intensity Duration Analysis

Study of intensity and its duration is called Intensity

Duration Analysis

Usually most intense storms last for shorter duration

As intensity reduces—duration increases

Intensity Duration Curve

Graph of duration vs. intensity for an area

Normally follows the following equation

Where;
I = intensity in mm/hr
t = duration in minutes
C, a, b = constants for the specific area
Intensity Duration Curve
Example: A storm occurred over a catchment area as
under:
Time (min) Precipitation (mm)
0 0
10 19
20 22
30 7
40 20
50 23
60 33
70 28
80 8
90 6

Plot maximum intensity duration curve?

*60/30
Intensity Frequency Duration Analysis
When sufficient data (say 50 years) for a
catchment area is available

Analyze data for each storm

Analyze for:
Intensity
Frequency
Duration

Different graphs for different catchment areas

Intensity-Frequency-Duration Curve

To know rainfall intensities of different

duration and different return period
Isopluvial Maps

Combined map for large area for maximum rainfall depth

for various combination of a return period and duration

These are Isohyets shown on regional rainfall map

Depth-Area-Duration (DAD) Analysis

Average depth of storm and its duration for a specific

area
Also called DAD study
Horton’s Equation
Pa =Poe-(KA)^n
DAD Curve

Based on records of several

storms on an area

Maximum areal precipitation

for different durations
corresponding to different
areal extents