Professional Documents
Culture Documents
- Random Samples
1
Why do we need Random
Samples?
• Many business applications
-We will have a random variable X such that
the probability distribution & expected
value is unknown
-The only way to make use of probability is
to estimate E(X) and if possible Fx or fx
3
Sample Mean
• What does a random sample tell us about
a random variable?
• Consider random sample
set {x1, x2, , xn}
SAMPLE MEAN
n
1
x xi
n i 1 4
Example
Shift observed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Number of stoppages 2 11 6 8 6 5 10 4 8 3
1 n
x xi
n i 1
1
(2 11 6 8 6 5 10 4 8 3) 6.3
10
5
Important
• x can be used as an estimate of the
parameter E(X).
6
APPROXIMATING MASS AND
DENSITY FUNCTIONS
If we have a large enough sample, we can group
the data and form a histogram that approximates
• the probability mass function
(for a finite random variable)
or
• the probability density function
(for a continuous random variable).
7
APPROXIMATING MASS FUNCTIONS
-Discrete random variables
Sample Data
0.200
0.180
0.160
Relative Frequency
0.140
0.120
0.100
0.080
0.060
0.040
0.020
0.000
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Stoppages
9
Important
• But we know
Area of rectangle=width x height
Area
Height ( Adjusted relative frequency )
width
But Relative frequency of a bin= Area of the corresponding
rectangle
Re lative frequency
Height ( Adjusted relative frequency )
width
• Now the area of each rectangle represents the probability
• Now we must plot the adjusted relative frequencies against the mid points of
the bins
10
Approximating the p.d.f.
Histogram Since the width is 0.03
function is
used for
(Disney) 0.0024/0.03
normalized Relative Adjusted Rel.
Bins Frequency Frequency Freq.(Height) Midpoint
ratios( Rnorm)
0.76 1 0.00240 0.07994 0.745
0.79 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.775
0.82 0 0.00000 0.00000 0.805
0.85 1 0.00240 0.07994 0.835
0.88 1 0.00240 0.07994 0.865
0.91 2 0.00480 0.15987 0.895
(0.73+0.76)/2
0.94 23 0.05516 1.83853 0.925
0.97 56 0.13429 4.39648 0.955
1 126 0.30216 10.07194 0.985
1.03 120 0.28777 9.67226 1.015
1.06 53 0.12710 4.23661 1.045
1.09 20 0.04796 1.59872 1.075
1.12 9 0.02158 0.71942 1.105
1.15 4 0.00959 0.31974 1.135
1.18 1 0.00240 0.07994 1.165
More 0 0.00000 0.00000
Sum: 417 1 33.333
11
Approximating the p.d.f.
(Disney)
Approximation of p.d.f.
Height
12
10
0
0.76 0.79 0.82 0.85 0.88 0.91 0.94 0.97 1 1.03 1.06 1.09 1.12 1.15 1.18
12
Normalized ratios
Approximating the p.d.f.
(Disney)
Approximation of p.d.f.
Height
12
10
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
13
Normalized ratios
Stock
Probability, Mathematics,
Option
Tests, Homework, Computers
on theTheproject Pricing
sample mean, 1.0007695, of these observations is computed
in the sheet Sample of Option Focus.xls. This is the same as our estimate
for the ratio, Rrf, which corresponds to the weekly risk-free interest rate.
Since we constructed the normalized ratios to make this true, we have a
check on the correctness of our work.
The HISTOGRAM function is used to group the sample data for
Rnorm, and a plot is created with the total area for all of the bars being
equal to 1. This produces the bar graph, shown in the sheet Sample,
which approximates the p.d.f., fnorm, of Rnorm. Connecting the midpoints at
the tops of the bars produces the line graph approximation for fnorm that is
shown in Sample.
Our plots, which are also shown on the next page, give a visual
indication for the volatility of Disney stock over the past 8 years.
Random, 15
Option Focus.xls Class Project
Focus (material continues) T C I
SAMPLE OF NORMALIZED RATIOS
12.0
10.0 Stock
8.0
Probability, Mathematics,
Option
Tests, Homework, Computers
Pricing
height
on the project
6.0
4.0
2.0
0.0
0.745 0.805 0.865 0.925 0.985 1.045 1.105 1.165
normalized ratio
17
Expected Value
To consider the expected value (or mean) of a continuous random
variable, we can use the probability density function(p.d.f) to
give us a geometric interpretation. The expected value perfectly
“balances” the area to its right with the area to its left.
fX
X
18
Hw11
0.2
0.1
0
0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
x
E(X)=4 (balances the area to its right with the area to its left
19
Bootstrapping
20
Computer Simulations
• Why do simulations?
– Cost benefits
– Time constraints
– Availability of data
• Which Excel functions will we need?
– RANDBETWEEN() – discrete case
- VLOOKUP()
– IF()
21
Simulation,
Integers
RANDBETWEEN
FUNCTION
22
Simulation,
Integers
VLOOKUP FUNCTION
23
Simulation,
Simulation.
Simulation. Integers: page
Integers Integers: page66
Location of table
Number of the
column where
value is to be found
24
Phone Log.xls (material continues) T C I
Menus differ slightly
in Excel XP.
25
Read the description of the
function from the Excel menu.
27
• Likewise, let r2, r3, , r20 be normalized ratios of
adjusted closing prices for weeks 2, 3, , 20 of the option.
28
• random observation for the ratio
r1r2r3 r20
30
Recall
• if closing stock price strike price