Name:Ilkin Asgerov

Group:R2233
Name of the presentation:Juvenils Crime

1 Decling juvenile crime | 14 March 2017

Declining juvenile
crime
Explanations for the international
downturn

The Hague: Dutch Ministry of Security and

Justice, Jaap De Waard

Presentation on the basis of the artice:

Bert Berghuis & Jaap De Waard (March 2017).
Declining juvenile crime: Explanations for the
international downturn.
https://www.researchgate.net/publication/314101302_Declining_
juvenile_crime_-_explanations_for_the_international_downturn

14 March 2017
Declining age-crime curves in The Netherlands: 2006 - 2014
Figure 1: Arrested suspects per 10,000 in the age groups from
12 to 80
 The number of arrested juvenile
500 suspects shows a sharp decrease:
450 between 2006 – 2015: - 60%
400

350  According to the age-crime curves:

300 youths aged 18/19 almost halved;
250 youths aged16/17 decrease 50%;
200 youths aged 14/15 decrease 65%;
150 and youths aged 12/13 decrease
100 80%
50

0
12 22 32 42 52 62 72
 So: the younger, the fewer juvenile
2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 delinquents!

3 Declining juvenile crime | 14 March 2017

Criminal victimisation among Dutch youth also show a significant decrease: 2005
-2015

4 Declining juvenile crime | 14 March 2017

International developments: Registered juvenile crime in five countries, 2000 -
2015
Figure 2: Registered juvenile crime in five countries (2007=100)  Germany since 2006: - 40%; USA since 2006: -
120
75%; New Zealand since 2006: - 60%; Canada
since 2006: - 40%; United Kingdom since 2006: -
40%.
100

 Also a decrease in juvenile crime in Australia,

80 Scotland, Denmark, Belgium, France and Austria

 Between 2008 and 2014 in 25 EU-countries the

60
number of juvenile detainees decreased by 41,9%

40
 Conclusion: The Dutch development of a dramatic
downturn in registered juvenile crime is not
20 unique.

 This means that general causes typical of Western

-
2000200120022003200420052006200720082009201020112012201320142015 industrialised countries should be explored to
UK USA NZL Canada GER
explain the detected trend

5 Declining juvenile crime | 14 March 2017

Explanations for the observed international decline in juvenile crime: perspective
1 Can
 Can: refers to the fact that it is getting more
difficult to commit certain crimes, or that
this requires a substantial effort or special
expertise

 Security hypothesis  There is a general

(international) increase in improvement of
preventive behaviour, the quality of and
financial investment in crime prevention by
individuals, gouvernmental organisations,
the business world and producers

 Security measures prevent the first step

being taken as a stepping stone to long-term
criminal involvement (debut hypothesis)

6 Declining juvenile crime | 14 March 2017

Explanations for the observed international decline in juvenile crime: perspective
2 Want
 Want: refers to the fact that juveniles no longer
want to engage in delinquent behaviour because
the takings are insufficient or because juveniles
risk too much for the crime (i.e. status)

 General trend of decrease in alcohol use and

abuse

 General trend of decrease in drug use and abuse

 General trend of decrease in secondary school

drop-out

 General trend of increase in satisfaction with life

among juveniles

 General trend spending more time ’using screens’

 spending less time in public space  more
fascination and ‘kick substitution’ via Internet
7 Declining juvenile crime | 14 March 2017
Explanations for the observed international decline in juvenile crime: perspective
3 May
 May: refers to the normative climate, the moral
disapproval connected with delinquency, expressed in
formal and informal preventative and punitive
measures

 Normative climate in society changed: from

’permissive society’ to a less tolerant attitude

 More formal disapproving responses to delinquent

behaviour

 Moral climate towards crime has become more

punitive

 Youngest generation attaches more importance to

’traditional middle-class mentality’.

 Greater conformity to conventional society, with less

room for unaccepted behaviour

8 Declining juvenile crime | 14 March 2017

Declining juvenile crime: A number of major conclusions
 There has been a significant and prolonged
’juvenile crime drop’ in The Netherlands and
many other advanced countries.
 First dominant explanation: technological
developments  rise of the smartphone /
Internet online gaming  change in leisure
time
 Second dominant explanation: due to crime
prevention measures it has become more
difficult to commit crime  next to this,
committing crime has become less
acceptable
 Third dominant explanation: decrease in
risky behaviour, less alcohol / drug use and
abuse, less dropping out of secondary-school

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Does juvenile crime still has a future?
 Foreseeing future crime and crime
trends is very hard or almost
impossible to predict
 The described macro-indicators can
only partly explain the causes and
factors that are responsible for the
decline in juvenile crime
 The observed drop in juvenile crime
has consequences for the future of the
criminal justice system
 Due to the lack of ’new recruits’, the
criminal justice chain will decrease in
size and the number of adults entering
the future criminal justice system

10 Declining juvenile crime | 14 March 2017