PROBABILITY

DISTRIBUTION
Important Probability Distribution
 Binomial Distribution
 Normal Distribution
 A random variable is a rule that assigns a numerical value to each
outcome in a sample space.
 Random variables may be either discrete or continuous.

RANDOM VARIABLE
 A random trial having only 2 possible outcomes
(Success, Failure) is called a Bernoulli trial.

BERNOULLI TRIALS
Suppose n independent Bernoulli trials are to be
performed, each of which results in
 a success with probability p and
 a failure with probability 1 − p.
If we define
X = the number of successes that occur in the n trials,

then X is said to have a binomial distribution with

parameters (n, p), denoted as
X ∼ Bin(n, p).

BINOMIAL DISTRIBUTION
Suppose that X is a binomial random variable with n trials and
probability p of success on each trial. The probability of getting
exactly k successes in n trials
(k = 0, 1, 2, …, n) is

where

n
C x is the combination of n and x. A combination is the number of ways to
choose a sample of x elements from a set of n distinct objects where
order does not matter, and replacements are not allowed.

BINOMIAL PROBABILITY FORMULA

Condition that needs to be met for the binomial formula to be
applicable:
 Binary? The possible outcomes of each trial can be classified as “success”
or “failure.”
 Independent? Trials must be independent. That is, knowing the outcome of
one trial must not tell us anything about the outcome of any other trial.
 Number? The number of trials n of the chance process must be fixed in
advance.
 Same probability? There is the same probability of success p on each trial.

CONDITIONS REQUIRED TO BE
BINOMIAL
If a count X of successes has a binomial distribution with number of trials n and
probability of success p, the mean (expected value) of X is

If a count X of successes has a binomial distribution with number of trials n and

probability of success p, the standard deviation of X is

MEAN AND STANDARD DEVIATION OF

A BINOMIAL RANDOM VARIABLE
 When p = 0.5, the distribution is symmetric around the mean
 When p > 0.5, the distribution curve is skewed to the left.
 When p < 0.5, the distribution curve is skewed to the right.
 Bernoulli distribution is a special case of binomial distribution where the
number of trials n = 1.

SOME IMPORTANT FACT

The shape of the binomial distribution can be approximated by a normal
distribution

Bin(n, p) ≈ N µ = np, σ = np(1 − p)

as long as n is large enough.

NORMAL APPROXIMATION TO THE

BINOMIAL
The size of n required depends on p. The closer p is to 0 or 1, the
larger n needs to be
A rule of thumb: n needs to be so large that the expected
number of successes and failures are both at least 10.

np ≥ 10 and n(1 − p) ≥ 10

HOW LARGE IS LARGE ENOUGH?

The Normal distribution are symmetric and can be described by two parameters
 µ = The mean of the distribution
 σ = The standard deviation of the distribution
Changing the values of µ and σ alter the positions and shapes of the distributions.

THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 If X is Normally distributed with mean µ and standard deviation σ, we write

µ and σ are the parameters of the distribution.

THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION

 It has a Bell Shape Curve and is Symmetric

 It is Symmetric around the mean:

Two halves of the curve are the same (mirror images)

CHARACTERISTICS OF NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION
 1 x 2
1  (

)
f ( x)   e 2
 2

Note constants:
=3.14159
e=2.71828

THE NORMAL DISTRIBUTION:(PDF)

It’s a probability function, so no matter what the values of  and , must
integrate to 1!

 1 x 2
1  ( )

 2
e 2  dx  1

THE NORMAL PDF

  1 x 2
1  ( )
E(X)= = x
 2
e 2  dx

 1 x 2
1  ( )
Var(X)= =
2 ( 

x2
 2
e 2  dx)   2

Standard Deviation(X)=

NORMAL DISTRIBUTION IS DEFINED

BY ITS MEAN AND STANDARD DEV.
 No matter what  and  are, the area between - and + is about 68%; the
area between -2 and +2 is about 95%; and the area between -3 and
+3 is about 99.7%. Almost all values fall within 3 standard deviations.

THE BEAUTY OF THE NORMAL

CURVE:
   1 x
1  ( )2

 
  2
e 2  dx  .68

  2 1 x 2
1  ( )



2   2
e 2  dx  .95

  3 1 x
1  ( )2



3   2
e 2  dx  .997

68-95-99.7 RULE IN MATH TERMS…

 The distribution of a normal random variable with mean zero and variance
one is called a standard normal distribution.

 The mean (μ ) = 0 and

 Standard deviation (σ) =1

STANDARD NORMAL
DISTRIBUTION(Z)
 All normal distributions can be converted into the standard normal curve by
subtracting the mean and dividing by the standard deviation:

X 
Z


Somebody calculated all the integrals for the standard normal and put them in a
table! So we never have to integrate!
Even better, computers now do all the integration.

STANDARD NORMAL DISTRIBUTION:

 X 
Z


 Z indicates how many standard deviations away from the mean the point x
lies.

 Z score is calculated to 2 decimal places.

Z SCORE (STANDARD SCORE)