LECTURE 7

Continuous Probability
Distributions
 Session Contents
 Continuous Distribution
 Uniform Continuous Distribution
 Normal Distribution
 Standard Normal Distribution
 Normal Approximations
 Exponential Distribution
 Introduction to Continuous
Distributions
 A Continuous Variable is a variable that can
assume any value in an interval:
 thickness of an item
 time required to complete a task
 temperature in a room

 These can potentially take on any value,

depending only on the ability to measure
accurately.
 Introduction to Continuous
Distributions
 Discrete Variable: each value of X has its own
probability P(X).
 Continuous Variable: events are intervals and
probabilities are areas underneath smooth
curves. A single point has no probability.
 PDF and CDF of Continuous
Distributions
 Probability Density Function
(PDF):
 Denoted f(x); must be nonnegative.
 Total area under curve = 1.
 Mean, variance, and shape depend
on the PDF parameters.

 Cummulative Distribution
Function (CDF):
 Denoted F(x).
 Shows P(X ≤ x).
 Useful for finding
probabilities.
 Probabilities as Areas
 Continuous probability functions are smooth curves.
 Unlike discrete distributions, the area at any single point =
0.
 The entire area under any PDF must be 1.
 The Uniform Distribution

 The uniform distribution is a probability

distribution that has equal probabilities
for all possible outcomes of the random
variable.
 Also called a rectangular distribution.
 Characteristics of
Uniform Distributions
 If X is a random variable that is uniformly
distributed between a and b, its PDF has
constant height.
 Area = base x height = (b-a) x 1/(b-a) = 1.
 Summary
Uniform Distributions
 Uniform Distribution Example
Example: Uniform probability distribution
over the range 2 ≤ X ≤ 6:

1
f(X) = 6 - 2 = 0.25 for 2 ≤ X ≤ 6

f(X)
ab 26
μ  4
0.25 2 2

(b - a) 2 (6 - 2) 2
σ   1 .1547
2 6 X 12 12
 Uniform Distribution Example
Example: Using the uniform probability
distribution to find P(3 ≤ X ≤ 5):

P(3 ≤ X ≤ 5) = (Base)(Height) = (2)(0.25) = 0.5

f(X)
0.25

2 3 4 5 6 X
 The Normal Distribution

 Bell Shaped
f(x)
 Symmetrical
 Mean= Median = Mode
Center is determined by the mean, σ
μ
x
Spread is determined by the μ
standard deviation, σ
Mean
= Median
The random variable has an = Mode
infinite theoretical range:
-  to + 
 The Normal PDF
 The formula for the normal PDF is

1 (x μ)2 /2σ 2

f(x)  e
2π

Where e = the mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828

π = the mathematical constant approximated by 3.14159
μ = the population mean
σ = the population standard deviation
x = any value of the continuous variable,  < x < 
 Many Normal Distributions

By varying the parameters μ and σ, we

obtain different normal distributions
 The Normal Distribution Shape

Changing μ shifts the

f(X) distribution left or right.

Changing σ
increases or
σ decreases the
spread.

μ X
 The Normal CDF
 For a normal random variable X with mean μ
and variance σ2 , i.e., X~N(μ, σ2), the CDF is
F(x 0 )  P(X  x 0 )
PDF CDF

x0 x0
Finding Normal Probabilities
The probability for a range of values is
measured by the area under the curve

P(a  X  b)  F(b)  F(a)

a μ b x
 Finding Normal Probabilities
F(b)  P(X  b)

a μ b x

F(a)  P(X  a)

a μ b x

P(a  X  b)  F(b)  F(a)

a μ b x
Summary of Normal Distributions
 The Standardized Normal
 Any normal distribution can be transformed into the
standardized normal distribution (Z), with mean 0
and variance 1
f(Z)

Z ~ N(0 ,1) 1
0 Z
 Need to transform X units into Z units by
subtracting the mean of X and dividing by its
standard deviation
X μ
Z
σ
Summary of Standardized
Normal Distributions
 Example
 If X is distributed normally with mean of 100
and standard deviation of 50, the Z value for
X = 200 is

X  μ 200  100
Z   2.0
σ 50
 This says that X = 200 is two standard
deviations above the mean of 100.
 Comparing X and Z units

100 200 X (μ = 100, σ = 50)

0 2.0 Z (μ = 0, σ = 1)

Note that the distribution is the same, only the

scale has changed. We can express the problem in
original units (X) or in standardized units (Z).
 Finding Normal Probabilities
 a μ b μ
P(a  X  b)  P Z 
 σ σ 
f(x)  b μ  a μ
 F   F 
 σ   σ 

a µ b x
a μ bμ
za  0 zb  Z
σ σ
 Standardized Normal Table
 The Standardized Normal table shows values of
the cumulative normal distribution function

 For a given Z-value a , the table shows F(a)

(the area under the curve from  to a )

F(a)  P(Z  a)

0 a Z
 Standardized Normal Table
 For a given Z-value a , the table shows F(a)
(the area under the curve from  to a )
Example: .9772
F(2) = P(Z < 2.00) = .9772

0 2.00 Z

 In Excel: NORMSDIST(z)
Example:
NORMSDIST(2.00) = P(Z < 2.00) = .9772
 Standardized Normal Table
 For negative Z-values, use the fact that the
distribution is symmetric to find the needed
probability:
.9772

Example: .0228

P(Z < -2.00) = 1 – 0.9772

0 2.00 Z
= 0.0228
.9772
In Excel: .0228
NORMSDIST(-2.00)
= 0.0228 Z
-2.00 0
 General Procedure for
Finding Probabilities

To find P(a < X < b) when X is

distributed normally:
 Draw the normal curve for the problem in
terms of X
 Translate X-values to Z-values
 Use the Cumulative Normal Table
 Finding Normal Probabilities
 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0. Find P(X < 8.6)
X  μ 8.6  8.0
Z   0.12
σ 5.0

μ=8 μ=0
σ = 10 σ=1

8 8.6 X 0 0.12 Z

P(X < 8.6) P(Z < 0.12)

 Solution: Finding P(Z < 0.12)
Standardized Normal
P(X < 8.6)
Probability Table
= P(Z < 0.12)
z F(z) F(0.12) = 0.5478
.10 .5398

.11 .5438

.12 .5478
Z
0.00
.13 .5517
0.12

In Excel: NORMDIST(8.6, 8, 5, True) =0.5478

 Upper Tail Probabilities
 Now Find P(X > 8.6)
P(X > 8.6) = P(Z > 0.12) = 1.0 - P(Z ≤ 0.12)
= 1.0 - 0.5478 = 0.4522

0.5478
1.000 1.0 - 0.5478
= 0.4522

Z Z
0 0
0.12 0.12
 Finding the X value for a
Known Probability

 Steps to find the X value for a known

probability:
1. Find the Z value for the known probability
2. Convert to X units using the formula:

X  μ  Zσ
 Finding the X value for a
Known Probability
Example:
 Suppose X is normal with mean 8.0 and
standard deviation 5.0.
 Now find the X value so that only 20% of all
values are below this X

.2000

? 8.0 X
? 0 Z
 Find the Z value for
20% in the Lower Tail
1. Find the Z value for the known probability
Standardized Normal Probability  20% area in the lower
Table (Portion) tail is consistent with a
z F(z) Z value of -0.84
.82 .7939 .80
.20
.83 .7967

.84 .7995
? 8.0 X
.85 .8023 -0.84 0 Z
 Finding the X value

2. Convert to X units using the formula:

X  μ  Zσ

 8.0  ( 0.84)5.0

 3.80
So 20% of the values from a distribution with mean
8.0 and standard deviation 5.0 are less than 3.80

In Excel: NORMINV(0.2, 8, 5) = 3.79

 Excel functions

 NORMSDIST(z)
 Return the standard normal cummulative distribution
 NORMSINV(probability)
 Return the inverse of the standard normal cummulative
distribution
 NORMDIST(x, mean, standard_dev, true)
 Returns the normal cumulative distribution for the specified
mean and standard deviation
 NORMINV(probability, mean, standard_dev)
 Returns the inverse of the normal cummulative distribution for
the specified mean and standard deviation
 Using Minitab With The Normal
Distribution
Finding P(X<5) when X is normal
1 with a mean of 7 and a standard deviation of 2

Cumulative Distribution Function

Normal with mean = 7 and standard deviation = 2
x P( X <= x )
5 0.158655
 Using Minitab With The Normal
Distribution
Finding x so that P(X<x) = 0.1 when X is normal
1 with a mean of 7 and a standard deviation of 2

Inverse Cumulative Distribution Function

Normal with mean = 7 and standard deviation = 2
P( X<= x ) x
0.1 4.43690
 Problem
 Analysis of 1000 long distance calls indicates that
the length of these calls is normally distributed
with expected value of 240 seconds and standard
deviation of 40 seconds.
 What is the percentage of the calls less than 180
seconds?
 How many calls lasted between 180 to 300
seconds?
 What is the length of a particular call if only 1% of
all call are shorter?
 Normal Approximation
Binomial Distributions
When is Approximation Needed?
 Rule of thumb: when n > 10 and n(1- ) > 10,
then it is appropriate to use the normal
approximation to the binomial.
 In this case, the binomial mean and standard
deviation will be equal to the normal µ and ,
respectively.
μ  nπ
σ  nπ (1  π)
 Example

 Rolling a dice 100 times, find the probability of

getting number 1 less than 20 times.
  = 1/6; n= 100; n > 10; n(1- ) > 10
 Normal approximation can be used:
μ  nπ  16.67
σ  nπ (1  π)  3.73
NORMDIST(20, 16.67, 3.73, TRUE) = 0.814
 Normal Approximation
Poisson Distributions
When is Approximation Needed?
 The normal approximation to the Poisson
works best when  is large (e.g., when 
exceeds the values in Appendix B).
 Set the normal µ and  equal to the Poisson
mean and standard deviation.
μλ
σ λ
 The Exponential Distribution
 Often used to model the length of time between
two occurrences of an event (the time between
arrivals)
 Examples:
 Time between trucks arriving at an unloading dock
 Time between transactions at an ATM Machine
 Time between phone calls to the main operator
 The Exponential Distribution
 Defined by a single parameter, its mean λ (lambda)
 The probability that an arrival time is less than
some specified time X is

 λX
P(arrival time  X)  1  e
where e = mathematical constant approximated by 2.71828
λ = the population mean number of arrivals per unit
X = any value of the continuous variable where 0 < X < 
Summary of Exponential
Distributions
 Finding Probability

Probability of waiting more than x Probability of waiting less than x

 Finding Waiting Time
 For example, if the mean arrival rate is 2.2 calls per
minute, we want the 90% for waiting time (the top
10% of waiting time).
 Find the x-value that defines the upper 10%.
 Exponential Distribution
Example
Example: Customers arrive at the service counter at
the rate of 20 per hour. What is the probability that the
arrival time between consecutive customers is less
than 6 minutes?
 The mean number of arrivals per hour is 20, so λ = 20
 6 minutes is 0.1 hours
 P(arrival time < 0.1) = 1 – e-λX = 1 – e-(20)(0.1) = 0.864665
 In Excel: EXPONDIST(0.1, 20,TRUE)
 So there is a 86.47% chance that the arrival time
between successive customers is less than 6 minutes
 The Exponential Distribution In
Minitab
Calculating the probability that an exponential distribution with a
mean of 1/20 is less than 0.1

Cumulative Distribution Function

Exponential with mean = 0.05
x P( X <= x )
0.1 0.864665
 Summary

 Presented Uniform Continuous Distriutions,

Normal Distributions, Standardized Normal
Distribution and Exponential Distributions
 Found probabilities using formulas and tables
 Homeworks
 Ebook: Chaper 7
 7.68
 7.77
 7.80
 7.99
 7.104