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Probability and Statistics
Probability and Statistics
3)
Basic Probability
Statistics for Managers Using Microsoft Excel®7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-1
Learning Objectives
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-2
Basic Probability Concepts
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-3
Example
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-4
Events
Simple event
An event described by a single characteristic
e.g., A day in January from all days in 2019
Joint event
An event described by two or more characteristics
e.g. A day in January that is also a Wednesday from all days in 2019
Complement of an event A (denoted A’)
All events that are not part of event A
e.g., All days from 2019 that are not in January
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-5
Sample Space
The Sample Space is the collection of all
possible events
e.g. All 6 faces of a die:
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-6
Organizing & Visualizing Events
Contingency Tables -- For All Days in 2019
Jan. Not Jan. Total
Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Sample
W e d. 5 Number
Of
J a n.
Space Sample
All Days Not Wed. 27
Space
In 2019 Wed. 47
Outcomes
N o t Ja
n.
Not W
ed . 286
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
® Chap 4-7
Definition: Simple Probability
Simple Probability refers to the probability of a
simple event.
ex. P(Jan.)
ex. P(Wed.)
Jan. Not Jan. Total
P(Wed.) = 52 / 365
Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
P(Jan.) = 32 / 365
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-8
Definition: Joint Probability
Joint Probability refers to the probability of an
occurrence of two or more events (joint event).
ex. P(Jan. and Wed.)
ex. P(Not Jan. and Not Wed.)
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-10
Collectively Exhaustive Events
Collectively exhaustive events
One of the events must occur
The set of events covers the entire sample space
Example: Randomly choose a day from 2019
A = Weekday; B = Weekend;
C = January; D = Spring;
Events A, B, C and D are collectively exhaustive
(but not mutually exclusive – a weekday can be in
January or in Spring)
Events A and B are collectively exhaustive and
also mutually exclusive
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-11
Computing Joint and
Marginal Probabilities
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-12
Joint Probability Example
Wed. 5 47 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-13
Marginal Probability Example
P(Wed.)
4 48 52
P (Jan. and Wed.) P(Not Jan. and Wed.)
365 365 365
Wed. 4 48 52
Not Wed. 27 286 313
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-14
Marginal & Joint Probabilities In A
Contingency Table
Event
Event B1 B2 Total
A1 P(A1 and B1) P(A1 and B2) P(A1)
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-15
Examples
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Probability Summary So Far
Probability is the numerical measure
of the likelihood that an event will 1 Certain
occur
The probability of any event must be
between 0 and 1, inclusively
0 ≤ P(A) ≤ 1 For any event A 0.5
The sum of the probabilities of all
mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events is 1
P(A) P(B) P(C) 1
0 Impossible
If A, B, and C are mutually exclusive and
collectively exhaustive
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-17
General Addition Rule
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-18
General Addition Rule Example
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-19
Computing Conditional
Probabilities
A conditional probability is the probability of one
event, given that another event has occurred:
P(A and B) The conditional
P(A | B) probability of A given
P(B) that B has occurred
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-21
Conditional Probability Example
(continued)
Of the cars on a used car lot, 70% have air conditioning
(AC) and 40% have a GPS and
20% of the cars have both.
GPS No GPS Total
AC 0.2 0.5 0.7
No AC 0.2 0.1 0.3
Total 0.4 0.6 1.0
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-23
Examples
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Using Decision Trees
.2
Given AC or G PS .7 P(AC and GPS) = 0.2
H a s
no AC: 0 .7
C )= D oe
P( A s
have not P(AC and GPS’) = 0.5
G PS .5
s AC
H a .7
All Conditional
Probabilities
Cars
Do .2
es
hav not .3
eA P(A G P S P(AC’ and GPS) = 0.2
C
C ’) Has
=0
.3
D oe
s
have not
G PS .1 P(AC’ and GPS’) = 0.1
.3 Chap 4-25
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Using Decision Trees
(continued)
.2
C
.4 P(GPS and AC) = 0.2
Given GPS H as A
or no GPS: = 0 .4
S )
( G P D oe
P s
have not .2 P(GPS and AC’) = 0.2
P S AC
sG
Ha .4
All Conditional
Probabilities
Cars
Do .5
e
hav s not
eG
PS P(G C
.6 P(GPS’ and AC) = 0.5
A
PS
’) = Has
0.6
D oe
s
have not .1 P(GPS’ and AC’) = 0.1
AC
.6 Chap 4-26
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Independence
Two events are independent if and only
if:
P(A | B) P(A)
Events A and B are independent when the probability
of one event is not affected by the fact that the other
event has occurred
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-27
Multiplication Rules
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-28
Examples
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc.
Bayes Formula
Section 4.4
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-31
Example
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-32
Bayes’ Theorem
P(A | B)P(B)
P(B | A)
P(A)
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-33
Marginal Probability
(The Law of Total Probability)
Marginal probability for event A:
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-34
Bayes’ Theorem
P(A | B i )P(B i )
P(B i | A)
P(A | B 1 )P(B 1 ) P(A | B 2 )P(B 2 ) P(A | B k )P(B k )
where:
Bi = ith event of k mutually exclusive and collectively
exhaustive events
A = new event that might impact P(Bi)
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-35
Bayes’ Theorem Example
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-36
Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-37
Bayes’ Theorem Example
(continued)
Sum = 0.36
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-39
Exercises
Statistics for Managers using Microsoft Excel® 7e Copyright ©2014 Pearson Education, Inc. Chap 4-40
Chapter Summary