Professional Documents
Culture Documents
2023 08 16 Cost - Week 4 Lecture Notes - Time Value of Money (HHG)
2023 08 16 Cost - Week 4 Lecture Notes - Time Value of Money (HHG)
1
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
WARNING
2
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
3
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Civil Engineering - Project and Cost Management
Cost Management section
4
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
4
04/25/2024
Key factors that affect project completion
5
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Engineering economy
6
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Engineering decision
Planning
Select among Best project
alternatives value
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Understanding the decision-making management process
8
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Ref.: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Understanding-the-decision-making-management-process_fig2_318730369
Engineering decision
Making
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Engineering decision
10
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Recommended texts
11
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Time Value of Money
Future Value (FV) concept
Simple and compound interest
Present Value (PV) concept.
Cash flow diagrams.
Net Present Value (NPV) concept.
13
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Concepts - time value of money
Interest is not the same as inflation – though both are commonly expressed in
percentages. Both can affect an economic decision to buy/do now or later.
14
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
What is the time value of money (TVM)?
Understanding the TVM is important for project management, as well as for daily life.
Decision: Should you buy something today or Save your money now and buy it later?
15
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Inflation
Inflation is an important concept in any economic analysis because the purchasing power of money
rarely stays constant
Over time, the amount of goods and services that can be purchased with a fixed amount of money tends
to change (usually declines)
When prices inflate, we can buy less with the same amount of money
16
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024 https://www.financereference.com/understanding-the-difference-between-deflation-and-inflation-in-commodities-and-shares/
Inflation and Interest
Inflation rate - captures the decrease in the purchasing power of the currency. The
inflation rate is typically measured against a standard basket of goods – can be expressed as the
consumer price index (CPI)
Interest rate - measures the real growth of money without the effect of inflation
Market interest rate - combines both real money growth and inflation.
17
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 1
You have $1000 and you want to buy $1000 smart TV. Do you buy it now or later?
You can invest your money at 4% annual interest, then in a year you can buy the TV.
If the price increases at an annual rate of 6% due to inflation. What’s the best option?
If the price increases at an annual rate of 3% due to inflation. What’s the best option?
18
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 1
You have $1000 and you want to buy $1000 smart TV. Do you buy it now or later?
(a) You can invest your money at 4% annual interest, then in a year you can buy the TV
(b) If the price increases at an annual rate of 6% due to inflation. What’s the best option?
(c) If the price increases at an annual rate of 3% due to inflation. What’s the best option?
(a) $1000+(0.04*1000) (b) $1000+(0.06*1000)
$1040 $1060
Money TV
$1000
Money TV
19
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Methods of calculating interest
20
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Methods of calculating interest
I = (i.P) N
The total amount available at the end of N periods, F (future amount of money), would be:
F = P + I = P (1 + i.N)
21
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Example 2 - Simple Interest
How much will $10,000 be after 3 years placed in a bank account paying simple interest of 5% per
year?
• First year interest $10,000 0.05 = $500
• Second year interest $10,000 0.05 = $500
• Third year interest $10,000 0.05 = $500
• Final payment $10,000 + $500+ $500+ $500 = $11,500.
Therefore:
22
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest – half-yearly:
If a bond pays 2% on an annual basis and compounds half yearly, then an investor who invests
$1,000 in this bond will receive: Amount+ (C. Interest) i
$10.00 of interest after the first 6 months (H1) ($1,000 2.0% / 2) ; $1,010.00
$10.10 of interest after the second 6 months (H2) ($1,010 x 2.0% / 2) ; $1,020.10
The investor receives a total of $20.10 interest for the year, which means that while the
nominal interest rate is 2%, the effective interest rate is 2.01%.
23
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest:
Normally applies in industry
Takes the power of compounding (i.e. interest on interest) into account
There is a nominal interest rate and an effective interest rate
The difference depends on when (frequency) interest is calculated, i.e. compounded:
• Is it be better to get 2% per annum compounding quarterly or half yearly?
24
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest – quarterly:
If a bond pays 2% on an annual basis and compounds quarterly, then an investor who
invests $1,000 in this bond will receive:
$5.00 of interest after the first 3 months (Q1) ($1,000 2.0% / 4) $1,005=1000+5
$5.03 of interest after the second 3 months (Q2) ($1,005 x 2.0% / 4) $1,010.03=1005+5.025
$5.05 of interest after the third 3 months (Q3) ($1,010.03 x 2.0% / 4) $1,0150.08=1010.03+5.05
$5.08 of interest after the fourth 3 months (Q4) ($1,015.08 x 2.0% / 4) $1,020.16=1015.08+5.08
The investor receives a total of $20.16 interest for the year, which means that while the nominal rate is 2%, the
effective interest rate is 2.016% - marginally better than the half-yearly compounding with the same nominal
interest rate.
25
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Amount $1000, C- Interest= 2%/4 months
End of PoI Beginning C. Interest Interest Ending Balance
(M, Q, H, Y) balance ($) (C.I.) / type PoI earned ($) ($) Type of payment of
interest (PoI)
A B C=A*B A+C
M=Monthly
1 1000 2%/4=0.005 5 5 Q=Quarterly
2 1005 2%/4= 0.005 5.025=5.03 5.025=5.03 H=Half
3 1010.03 2%/4= 0.005 5.05 5.05 Y= Yearly
4 1015.08 2%/4= 0.005 5.075=5.08 5.075=5.08
Total=20.16 1020.16
26
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example
27
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest:
Difference between the nominal and effective interest rates increases with the
number of compounding periods within a specific time period
What might that mean if you were looking at a car or home loan where the
interest rate may be compounding daily or monthly?
Is the lowest nominal interest rate (probably the marketed headline rate in the
advertisement) the best option for you?
28
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest
Charges interest on an initial amount plus any accumulated amount of money not withdrawn,
or repaid, as the case may be
In general, if you deposited P dollars at an interest rate of i, you would have P + i.P dollars at the end
of one interest period
If the entire amount (principal and interest) was reinvested at the same rate i for another (same
length) period, you would have at the end of the second period:
P (1 + i ) + i [P (1 + i )] = P (1 + i )2
29
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest
Continuing, we see that the balance after period three is:
P (1 + i )2 + i [P (1 + i )2] = P (1 + i )3
This interest-earning process repeats, and after N equal periods, the total amount
accumulated value F (future value) will grow to:
F = P (1 + i )N
30
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 3 - Compound interest
What is the value of $10,000 after 3 years in a bank account paying 3% per year compound
interest?
04/25/2024
Example 3 - Compound interest, (Method 3)
End of PoI Beginning balance C. Interest (C.I.) / Interest earned ($) Ending Balance
(M, Q, H, Y) ($) type PoI ($)
A B C=A*B A+C
1 (Year 1) 10,000 (3%/1)=0.03 300 10,300
2 (Year 2) 10,300 (3%/1)=0.03 309 10,609
3 (Year 3) 10,609 (3%/1)=0.03 318.27 10,927.27
Total=927.27 10,927.27
32
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 3 - Compound interest
What is the value of $10,000 after 3 years in a bank account paying 5% per year compound
interest?
Similarly after the third year (N = 3), total amount will be A=F=$11,576.25
33
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 3 - Compound interest
So over a three year period a change in interest rate from 3% pa to 5% pa would mean a total interest
difference of:
34
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Interest rates change
The Reserve bank of Australia sets a cash rate. From this banks determine their interest
rates:
Paid on deposits
Charged on loans
35
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Interest rates change – significantly in recent times
Assumptions about rates and their likely direction affect financial decisions
36
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Example 4 – Simple versus compound interest
Assume you deposit $1,000 into a savings account paying an interest rate of 8% per year (or per
annum, pa). Assume you do not withdraw the interest earned at the end of each interest
period (a year) but instead let it accumulate:
1. How much would you have at the end of year 3 with simple interest?
2. How much would you have at the end of year 3 with compound interest?
Given : P = $1,000, N = 3 years, and i = 8% per year.
Find : F.
Compound Interest
Simple Interest F = P + I = P (1 + i.N)
𝐹 = $1,000 𝑥 1 + 0.08 3 = $1,260
𝐹 = $1,000 𝑥 1 + (0.08*3) = $1,240
31
37 𝐹 = $1,000 𝑥 1 + (0.08*3)
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Receipt
Income
0 1 2 3
1 2 3 0
investment
32
38 Expenses
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 5 - Cash flow diagrams
For example, if you apply for education loan in the amount of $30,000 from a bank at 9%
annual interest rate. In addition, you pay a $300 loan establishment fee when the loan
commences.
The bank offers a repayment plan with equal payments of $7,713 made at the end of every year for
the next five years.
39
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 5 - Cash flow diagrams
For example, if you apply for education loan in the amount of $30,000 from a bank at 9%
annual interest rate. In addition, you pay a $300 loan establishment fee when the loan
commences.
The bank offers a repayment plan with equal payments of $7,713 made at the end of every year for
the next five years.
Payments and amounts owing can be tabulated as follows:
Year Loan Balance at Interest incurred Amount owing Payment due Balance
beginning of year based on 9% rate at end of year at end of year carried over
1 30,000 0.09*30000=2,700 30,000+2,700 =32,700 7,713 32700-7173= 24,987
2 24,987 2,249 27,236 7,713 19,523
3 19,523 1,757 21,280 7,713 13,568
4 13,568 1,221 14,788 7,713 7,076
5 7,076 637 7,712 7,713 0
Total 8,564
40
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 5 - Cash flow diagrams
Cash flow diagram representing loan repayment example as follow:
$29,700 Cash flow at n = 0 is a net cash flow after summing $30,000 and
taking away the $300 loan establishment fee = $29,700.
i = 9%
Year
s
1 2 4 5
3
41
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 6
A person places $500 in an investment. Four years later, the investment was worth $645.34.
What interest rate, compounded yearly, would give the person this amount?
Compound Interest
F = P (1 +
i )N
$645.34 = $500 (1 + i )4
1.291 = (1 + i )4
i =
0.0659 or
6.6%
42
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 7
The principal amount $1,200 is invested for 3½ years in a compound interest account paying 4%
annual interest, compounded monthly.
Find the final amount in the account.
The key is to understand what the individual words in the question may mean:
04/25/2024
Economic equivalence
Economic equivalence refers to the fact that any cash flows can be converted to an equivalent cash
flow at any point in time.
44
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Economic equivalence
This concept allow the comparison of alternatives proposals by finding the equivalent values of each
at any common point in time.
04/25/2024
Future Value
Future value is defined as the value of an asset or cash at a specified date in the future that is
equivalent in value to a specified sum today.
F = P (1 + i )N
Where: F = future value after “N” periods of time.
P = present value
i = interest rate (assumes the same interest rate over the period considered)
N = time period considered
n = period of time.
46
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Present Value
𝐹 −𝑁
𝑃= =𝐹 1+
1+𝑖𝑖 𝑁
𝑖𝑖
47
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 8
You are offered the alternative of receiving $2,007 at the end of 5 years, or $1,500 today.
What value of i would make you indifferent to the choice between $1,500 today and the
promise of $2,007 at the end of 5 years?
48
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Chan S. Park
04/25/2024
Example 8
F = P (1 + i)N
$2,007 = $1,500 (1 + i)5
1⁄ 5
2007
i = −1
1500
= 0.06 (6%)
Hence, if the interest rate i is anything <6%, you would prefer the promise of $2,007 in five years
over $1,500 today.
However, if i is >6%, you would prefer $1,500 now.
At lower interest rate, P must be higher in order to be equivalent to the future amount.
49
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Chan S. Park
04/25/2024
Example 9
If you had $1,000 now and invested it at 7% interest compounded annually, how much would it be
worth in 8 years?
Given : P = $1,000, i = 7% per year, and N = 8 years.
Find : F?
44
50
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition
04/25/2024
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Chan S. Park
Example 9
Method 2 – Using Excel
Excel “FV” function syntax:
46
52
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Example 10
Method 2 – Using Excel
Excel “PV” function syntax:
53
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition
04/25/2024 Chan S. Park
Example 11
Suppose you buy a share of stock for $10 and sell it for $20; your profit is thus $10. If that
happens within a year, your rate of return is an impressive 100% ($10/$10 = 1).
If it takes five years, what would be the rate of return on your investment?
Given : P = $10, F = $20, and N = 5 years.
Find :I?
54
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
57
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition Chan S.
04/25/2024 Park
Example 12
Method 3 – “Rule of Thumb” – Law of 72
With compounding interest the relationship between time and interest rates comes down
to the “Law of 72”:
The time (years) to double your money = 72 / (interest rate per annum)
= 72 / 12%
= 6 years
58
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Next week’s lecture ….
59
Curtin University is a trademark of Curtin University of Technology
CRICOS Provider Code 00301J
04/25/2024
Thank You
60
CSEN3000-CM-S2-Y2023-W4-L&T
25/04/2024