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CE Project & Cost Management (CSEN3000,CSEN6006)

Week 4 Lecture - Time Value of Money

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Civil Engineering - Project and Cost Management
Cost Management section

Dr. Haider Hamad Ghayeb


Availability Typically Tuesdays and Thursdays by appointment haider.hamad@curtin.edu.
: Email: my
Office: SK3-418
Phone: +6085630100 Ext.2635
Website: https://engsci.curtin.edu.my/departments/civil-construction-engineering/staff/haider-hamad-ghayeb
/

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Key factors that affect project completion

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Engineering economy

Engineers seek solutions to problems, in the context of:


 Evaluation of the costs and benefits of proposed projects
 Economic viability of each potential alternative is considered with the technical aspects
 Need to balance the unlimited desire versus the resource-constrained world – to maximize output
(worth), given input (cost), and to take the necessary actions to maximize efficiency. In another
word, reduce the cost and maximize the profit.

As previously identified, environmental / sustainability constraints also need to be factored into


consideration.

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Engineering decision

Planning
Select among Best project
alternatives value

Engineering Design Decision:


 Physical properties (materials), engineering design
correlations (theories), and engineering judgments (e.g. safety).
 Design is time invariant.

Economic Decision - selects the best among:


 different financial sources
 technologies
 different equipment
 practices and methods.
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Understanding the decision-making management process

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Ref.: https://www.researchgate.net/figure/Understanding-the-decision-making-management-process_fig2_318730369
Engineering decision

Decision Making Process:


1. Recognition of the problem. E.g. (Supplying concrete)
2. Determination of objectives – identification of client’s needs and wants ,e.g.(Better qualities at
reasonable prices)
3. Recognition of other stakeholders affecting, and affected by, the project, e.g. (Client, PM, SM,
Engs, suppliers, etc.)
4. Assembly of relevant data – e.g. company’s own accounting system, historical
productivity data, previous relevant projects. e.g.(the quality and price of concrete
based on the previous projects and suppliers)
5. Identification of strategic factors that can be altered to remove limitations restricting
success of an undertaking: e.g.1 (response, time, quality, the contribution of the new
supplier with engineers during casting)
e.g. 2 a civil engineer wanting to dewater an excavated pit might be faced with only a bucket to do the job. A
9 strategic factor developed in response to this limitation would be the procurement of a pump.Decision-
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Engineering decision

Decision Making Process…


6. Determination of engineering proposals – discovering options to alter strategic factors in order
to overcome limiting factors - from the previous example: an option was to buy, or rent (thus a
further option) a pump. Discuss with engineers (PM, SM, and Engs) about new suppliers for
concrete
7. Evaluation of engineering proposals using economic analysis to determine the best option for
solving the problem. E.g. consider the systematic analysis of cost and quality of concrete
8. Decision made on a combination of engineering and economic factors.

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Recommended texts

Integrated Design and Cost Management Fundamentals of Engineering Economics


for Civil Engineers by Andrew Whyte by Chan S Park

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Time Value of Money
 Future Value (FV) concept
 Simple and compound interest
 Present Value (PV) concept.
 Cash flow diagrams.
 Net Present Value (NPV) concept.

What Is the Time Value of Money (TVM)?

 The TVM is a core principle of finance. A sum of money


in the hand has greater value than the same sum to be
paid in the future.

 The TVM is also referred to as the present discounted


value.
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What is the time value of money?

You were a winner of a lottery jackpot and given a choice of:


 A single-lump sum payment of $116.5 million paid immediately Or
 An annuitised prize paid out over 19 years (20 payments) with a total value of $195m (Assume an
average interest rate of 4% applies).

Which would you choose?


 Is receiving $ 195 million overall a lot better than receiving just $116.5 million now?
 The answer involves the operation of interest and the time value of money.

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Concepts - time value of money

 Engineering Economy is a collection of mathematical techniques to simplify economic


comparisons
 Time Value of Money (TVM) means money has a different value tomorrow than it has today:
“A dollar today is not equal to a dollar tomorrow.”
 Interest is a measure of the increase in value between the original sum borrowed or invested and the
final sum owed or accrued:
Interest = Total amount accumulated – original investment
 The original investment or loan is referred to as the Principal.

 Interest is not the same as inflation – though both are commonly expressed in
percentages. Both can affect an economic decision to buy/do now or later.
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What is the time value of money (TVM)?
Understanding the TVM is important for project management, as well as for daily life.

Comparison – compare the value of money at different points in time: Two


factors affecting the TVM.

Decision: Should you buy something today or Save your money now and buy it later?

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Inflation

 Inflation is an important concept in any economic analysis because the purchasing power of money
rarely stays constant

 Over time, the amount of goods and services that can be purchased with a fixed amount of money tends
to change (usually declines)

 When prices inflate, we can buy less with the same amount of money

 When the purchasing power of money increases, this is named deflation.

 Deflation has the opposite effect on inflation.

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Inflation and Interest

 Inflation rate - captures the decrease in the purchasing power of the currency. The
inflation rate is typically measured against a standard basket of goods – can be expressed as the
consumer price index (CPI)

 Interest rate - measures the real growth of money without the effect of inflation

 Market interest rate - combines both real money growth and inflation.

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Example 1

You have $1000 and you want to buy $1000 smart TV. Do you buy it now or later?

 You can invest your money at 4% annual interest, then in a year you can buy the TV.

 If the price increases at an annual rate of 6% due to inflation. What’s the best option?

 If the price increases at an annual rate of 3% due to inflation. What’s the best option?

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Example 1
You have $1000 and you want to buy $1000 smart TV. Do you buy it now or later?
 (a) You can invest your money at 4% annual interest, then in a year you can buy the TV
 (b) If the price increases at an annual rate of 6% due to inflation. What’s the best option?
 (c) If the price increases at an annual rate of 3% due to inflation. What’s the best option?
(a) $1000+(0.04*1000) (b) $1000+(0.06*1000)

$1040 $1060

Money TV
$1000

$1040 $1030 (c) $1000+(0.03*1000)

Money TV
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Methods of calculating interest

Simple interest or nominal interest:


 Nominal interest rate is conceptually the simplest type of interest rate
 It is simply the interest rate of a given bond or loan
 The nominal interest rate is the actual monetary price that borrowers pay to lenders to use their
money.
 If the nominal rate on a loan is 3%, then borrowers can expect to pay $30 of interest for every
$1,000 loaned to them.

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Methods of calculating interest

Simple Interest or Nominal Interest:


 The interest charged on an initial amount of money is the same for each interest period
 For a deposit of P (principal or present value) dollars at a simple interest rate of i per
period, for N periods, the total earned interest (I) would be:

I = (i.P) N

 The total amount available at the end of N periods, F (future amount of money), would be:

F = P + I = P (1 + i.N)

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Example 2 - Simple Interest
How much will $10,000 be after 3 years placed in a bank account paying simple interest of 5% per
year?
• First year interest  $10,000  0.05 = $500
• Second year interest  $10,000  0.05 = $500
• Third year interest  $10,000  0.05 = $500
• Final payment  $10,000 + $500+ $500+ $500 = $11,500.

Therefore:

F= P (1 + i.N) = $10,000 (1 + 0.05  3) =


$11,500.

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Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest – half-yearly:
If a bond pays 2% on an annual basis and compounds half yearly, then an investor who invests
$1,000 in this bond will receive: Amount+ (C. Interest) i
 $10.00 of interest after the first 6 months (H1) ($1,000  2.0% / 2) ; $1,010.00
 $10.10 of interest after the second 6 months (H2) ($1,010 x 2.0% / 2) ; $1,020.10

The investor receives a total of $20.10 interest for the year, which means that while the
nominal interest rate is 2%, the effective interest rate is 2.01%.

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Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest:
 Normally applies in industry
 Takes the power of compounding (i.e. interest on interest) into account
 There is a nominal interest rate and an effective interest rate
 The difference depends on when (frequency) interest is calculated, i.e. compounded:
• Is it be better to get 2% per annum compounding quarterly or half yearly?

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Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest – quarterly:
If a bond pays 2% on an annual basis and compounds quarterly, then an investor who
invests $1,000 in this bond will receive:
 $5.00 of interest after the first 3 months (Q1) ($1,000  2.0% / 4) $1,005=1000+5

 $5.03 of interest after the second 3 months (Q2) ($1,005 x 2.0% / 4) $1,010.03=1005+5.025
 $5.05 of interest after the third 3 months (Q3) ($1,010.03 x 2.0% / 4) $1,0150.08=1010.03+5.05
 $5.08 of interest after the fourth 3 months (Q4) ($1,015.08 x 2.0% / 4) $1,020.16=1015.08+5.08

The investor receives a total of $20.16 interest for the year, which means that while the nominal rate is 2%, the
effective interest rate is 2.016% - marginally better than the half-yearly compounding with the same nominal
interest rate.

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Amount $1000, C- Interest= 2%/4 months
End of PoI Beginning C. Interest Interest Ending Balance
(M, Q, H, Y) balance ($) (C.I.) / type PoI earned ($) ($) Type of payment of
interest (PoI)
A B C=A*B A+C
M=Monthly
1 1000 2%/4=0.005 5 5 Q=Quarterly
2 1005 2%/4= 0.005 5.025=5.03 5.025=5.03 H=Half
3 1010.03 2%/4= 0.005 5.05 5.05 Y= Yearly
4 1015.08 2%/4= 0.005 5.075=5.08 5.075=5.08

Total=20.16 1020.16

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Example

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Methods of calculating interest

Compound Interest:

 Difference between the nominal and effective interest rates increases with the
number of compounding periods within a specific time period

 What might that mean if you were looking at a car or home loan where the
interest rate may be compounding daily or monthly?

Is the lowest nominal interest rate (probably the marketed headline rate in the
advertisement) the best option for you?

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Methods of calculating interest

Compound Interest
 Charges interest on an initial amount plus any accumulated amount of money not withdrawn,
or repaid, as the case may be
 In general, if you deposited P dollars at an interest rate of i, you would have P + i.P dollars at the end
of one interest period
 If the entire amount (principal and interest) was reinvested at the same rate i for another (same
length) period, you would have at the end of the second period:

P (1 + i ) + i [P (1 + i )] = P (1 + i )2

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Methods of calculating interest
Compound Interest
Continuing, we see that the balance after period three is:

P (1 + i )2 + i [P (1 + i )2] = P (1 + i )3

This interest-earning process repeats, and after N equal periods, the total amount
accumulated value F (future value) will grow to:

F = P (1 + i )N

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Example 3 - Compound interest
What is the value of $10,000 after 3 years in a bank account paying 3% per year compound
interest?

After the first year: P


P.i
Principal + Interest = $10,000 + $10,000  0.03 = $10,300

After the second year:


P= Principle or deposit or value
Amount after one year  1.03 = $10,300  1.03 = $10,609
P=$10,000
(or) P (1 + i )2 = $10,000 (1 + 0.03)2 = $10,609 r=0.03
n= 1/year
Similarly after the third year (N = 3), total amount will be t=3 years
F = P (1 + i )N = $10,000 (1 + 0.03)3 = $10,927.27
A=F= $10,929.27
(Method 2)
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Example 3 - Compound interest, (Method 3)

End of PoI Beginning balance C. Interest (C.I.) / Interest earned ($) Ending Balance
(M, Q, H, Y) ($) type PoI ($)

A B C=A*B A+C
1 (Year 1) 10,000 (3%/1)=0.03 300 10,300
2 (Year 2) 10,300 (3%/1)=0.03 309 10,609
3 (Year 3) 10,609 (3%/1)=0.03 318.27 10,927.27

Total=927.27 10,927.27

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Example 3 - Compound interest
What is the value of $10,000 after 3 years in a bank account paying 5% per year compound
interest?

After the first year: P P.


i
Principal + Interest = $10,000 + $10,000  0.05 = $10,500

After the second year:


P=$10,000
Amount after one year  1.05 = $10,500  1.05 = $11,205 r=0.05
n=1/year
(or) P (1 + i )2 = $10,000 (1 + 0.05)2 = $11,205 t=3 years

Similarly after the third year (N = 3), total amount will be A=F=$11,576.25

F = P (1 + i )N = $10,000 (1 + 0.05)3 = $11,576

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Example 3 - Compound interest
So over a three year period a change in interest rate from 3% pa to 5% pa would mean a total interest
difference of:

$11,576 - $10,927 = $649

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Interest rates change
The Reserve bank of Australia sets a cash rate. From this banks determine their interest
rates:

 Paid on deposits
 Charged on loans

https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/ (Accessed 7/08/2023)

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Interest rates change – significantly in recent times

Assumptions about rates and their likely direction affect financial decisions

https://www.rba.gov.au/statistics/cash-rate/ (Accessed 7/08/2023)

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Example 4 – Simple versus compound interest
Assume you deposit $1,000 into a savings account paying an interest rate of 8% per year (or per
annum, pa). Assume you do not withdraw the interest earned at the end of each interest
period (a year) but instead let it accumulate:
1. How much would you have at the end of year 3 with simple interest?
2. How much would you have at the end of year 3 with compound interest?
Given : P = $1,000, N = 3 years, and i = 8% per year.
Find : F.

Compound Interest
Simple Interest F = P + I = P (1 + i.N)
𝐹 = $1,000 𝑥 1 + 0.08 3 = $1,260
𝐹 = $1,000 𝑥 1 + (0.08*3) = $1,240

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37 𝐹 = $1,000 𝑥 1 + (0.08*3)
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04/25/2024 Chan S. Park - Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition


Cash flow diagrams
Problems involving the time value of money can be conveniently represented in graphic form with a
cash flow diagram (strongly recommended you adopt such a practice).
 Horizontal line represent time, marked off with the number of interest periods specified.
 Arrows represent cash flows over time at relevant periods:
• Upward arrows represent positive flows (receipts)
• Downward arrows represent negative flows (expenditures)
• Arrows actually represent net cash flows: two or more receipts or disbursements made at the
same time are summed and shown as single arrow.

Receipt
Income
0 1 2 3
1 2 3 0
investment
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Example 5 - Cash flow diagrams
For example, if you apply for education loan in the amount of $30,000 from a bank at 9%
annual interest rate. In addition, you pay a $300 loan establishment fee when the loan
commences.
The bank offers a repayment plan with equal payments of $7,713 made at the end of every year for
the next five years.

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Example 5 - Cash flow diagrams
For example, if you apply for education loan in the amount of $30,000 from a bank at 9%
annual interest rate. In addition, you pay a $300 loan establishment fee when the loan
commences.
The bank offers a repayment plan with equal payments of $7,713 made at the end of every year for
the next five years.
Payments and amounts owing can be tabulated as follows:
Year Loan Balance at Interest incurred Amount owing Payment due Balance
beginning of year based on 9% rate at end of year at end of year carried over
1 30,000 0.09*30000=2,700 30,000+2,700 =32,700 7,713 32700-7173= 24,987
2 24,987 2,249 27,236 7,713 19,523
3 19,523 1,757 21,280 7,713 13,568
4 13,568 1,221 14,788 7,713 7,076
5 7,076 637 7,712 7,713 0
Total 8,564
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Example 5 - Cash flow diagrams
Cash flow diagram representing loan repayment example as follow:

$29,700 Cash flow at n = 0 is a net cash flow after summing $30,000 and
taking away the $300 loan establishment fee = $29,700.

i = 9%
Year
s
1 2 4 5
3

$7,713 $7,713 $7,713 $7,713 $7,713

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Example 6
A person places $500 in an investment. Four years later, the investment was worth $645.34.
What interest rate, compounded yearly, would give the person this amount?

Compound Interest
F = P (1 +
i )N
$645.34 = $500 (1 + i )4
1.291 = (1 + i )4
i =
0.0659 or
6.6%
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Example 7
The principal amount $1,200 is invested for 3½ years in a compound interest account paying 4%
annual interest, compounded monthly.
Find the final amount in the account.
The key is to understand what the individual words in the question may mean:

Given: P = $1,200, N = 3.5 years  12 = 42 months, as compounds monthly,


i = 4%/12 = 0.33% per month, need to align interest rate with compounding period,
Find: F. P=$12,00
r=0.04
F = P (1 + i )N n=12/year
t=3.5 years
= $1,200 (1 + 0.0033)42
A=F=$1380
= $1,378
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Economic equivalence

Understanding the “time value of money” leads us to an important question, how do we


measure and compare various cash flows?
 For example, whether we should prefer to have $20,000 today and $50,000 in 10 years from
now, or $8,000 each year for the next 10 years?

Economic equivalence refers to the fact that any cash flows can be converted to an equivalent cash
flow at any point in time.

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Economic equivalence

This concept allow the comparison of alternatives proposals by finding the equivalent values of each
at any common point in time.

Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd


Edition Chan S. Park
39
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Future Value

Future value is defined as the value of an asset or cash at a specified date in the future that is
equivalent in value to a specified sum today.

F = P (1 + i )N
Where: F = future value after “N” periods of time.
P = present value
i = interest rate (assumes the same interest rate over the period considered)
N = time period considered
n = period of time.

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Present Value

𝐹 −𝑁
𝑃= =𝐹 1+
1+𝑖𝑖 𝑁
𝑖𝑖

(1 + i )-N is called the “discounting factor”.


The rate i is called the “discounting rate”.

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Example 8

You are offered the alternative of receiving $2,007 at the end of 5 years, or $1,500 today.

Assume there is:


 no risk of payment not occurring.
 no need for any of the money during the next 5 years.

You deposit the $1,500 in an account that pays i% interest.

What value of i would make you indifferent to the choice between $1,500 today and the
promise of $2,007 at the end of 5 years?

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Example 8
F = P (1 + i)N
$2,007 = $1,500  (1 + i)5
1⁄ 5
2007
i = −1
1500

= 0.06 (6%)

 Hence, if the interest rate i is anything <6%, you would prefer the promise of $2,007 in five years
over $1,500 today.
 However, if i is >6%, you would prefer $1,500 now.
 At lower interest rate, P must be higher in order to be equivalent to the future amount.

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Example 9
If you had $1,000 now and invested it at 7% interest compounded annually, how much would it be
worth in 8 years?
Given : P = $1,000, i = 7% per year, and N = 8 years.
Find : F?

Method 1 – Using a Calculator


F = P (1 + i )N
= $1,000  (1 + 0.07)8
= $1718

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Example 9
Method 2 – Using Excel
Excel “FV” function syntax:

= FV(rate, Nper, Pmt, [Pv], [type])


Where:
 Rate – interest rate;
 Nper – total number of payment periods;
 Pmt – payment made each period;
 Pv – present value [optional]
 Type – payment due at the end of period “0” and at the beginning of period “1” [optional]
=FV(7%,8,0,-1000,0) or FV(0.07,8,0,-1000,0)
= $1,718
Note: You will not be permitted to use Excel to do such calculations in the exam.
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Example 10
You have $1000 in an account today. For the past 8 years, that account has been paying you 6%
annual interest. What was the initial amount that you deposited into the account?
Given : F = $1,000, i = 6% per year, and N = 8 years.
Find : P? F = P (1 + i)N

Method 1 – Using a Calculator


P = F (1 + i )-N
= $1,000  (1 + 0.06)-8
= $627

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Example 10
Method 2 – Using Excel
Excel “PV” function syntax:

= PV(rate, Nper, Pmt, [Fv], [type])


Where:
 Rate – interest rate;
 Nper – total number of payment periods;
 Pmt – payment made each period;
 Fv – future value [optional]
 Type – payment due at the end of period “0” and at the beginning of period “1” [optional]
=PV(6%,8,0,1000,0) or PV(0.06,8,0,1000,0)
= -$627

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Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition
04/25/2024 Chan S. Park
Example 11
Suppose you buy a share of stock for $10 and sell it for $20; your profit is thus $10. If that
happens within a year, your rate of return is an impressive 100% ($10/$10 = 1).
If it takes five years, what would be the rate of return on your investment?
Given : P = $10, F = $20, and N = 5 years.
Find :I?

Method 1 – Using a Calculator


F = P (1 + i )N
$20 = $10  (1 + i )5
log 2 = 5 log (1 + i )
i = 14.9%

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Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition Chan S. Park


04/25/2024
Example 11
Method 2 – Using Excel
Excel “RATE” function syntax:

= RATE(Nper, Pmt, Pv, [Fv], [type], [guess])


Where:
 Nper – total number of payment periods;
 Pmt – payment made each period;
 Pv – present value
 Fv – future value [optional]
 Type – payment due at the end of period “0” and at the beginning of period “1” [optional]
 Guess – your guess for what the rate will be [optional]
=RATE(5,0,-10,20,0,0)
= 14.9%
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CRICOS Provider Code 00301J Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition
04/25/2024 Chan S. Park
Example 12
You have just purchased 200 shares of Company XYZ at $15 per share.You plan to sell the shares
when its market price doubles. If you expect the share price to increase 12% per year, how long
do you expect to wait before selling the stock?
Given : P = $15  200 = $3,000 , F = $6,000, and i = 12% per year.
Find : N.

Method 1 – Using a Calculator


F = P (1 + i)N
$6,000 = $3,000  (1 + 0.12)N
log 2 = N log 1.12
N = 6.1 years  6
years
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CRICOS Provider Code 00301J Fundamentals of Engineering Economics, 3rd Edition
04/25/2024 Chan S. Park
Example 12
Method 2 – Using Excel
Excel “NPER” function syntax:
= NPER(rate, Pmt, Pv, [Fv], [type])
Where:
 Rate – interest rate;
 Pmt – payment made each period;
 Pv – present value
 Fv – future value [optional]
 Type – payment due at the end of period “0” and at the beginning of period “1” [optional]
=NPER(12%,0, -3000,6000,0)
= 6.1  6 years

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04/25/2024 Park
Example 12
Method 3 – “Rule of Thumb” – Law of 72
With compounding interest the relationship between time and interest rates comes down
to the “Law of 72”:

The time (years) to double your money = 72 / (interest rate per annum)
= 72 / 12%
= 6 years

Similarly the interest rate needed to double your money = 72 / (years).

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04/25/2024
Next week’s lecture ….

 The time value of money. – Net Present Value (NPV)

In preparation for next week’s tutorial ….


 Time value of money exercises.

This week’s tutorial ….


 Quantity take-off exercises (one exercise is modified from a 2021 exam question).

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Thank You

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25/04/2024

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