What is Sigma (σ )

 Sigma is a letter in the Greek alphabet

 Sigma is a symbol which shows the degree of variation in a process
(Standard Deviation)

How close
are you to
meeting your
target?
 What is Six Sigma (6 σ )

 The goal
 Minimize variation
 Center the process, such that the center of the value delivered is at
least six standard deviations away from what is considered non
acceptable or the upper or lower customer specification
 The degree of acceptable variation in a process depends on
knowing the target

Do you know
where your
target is?
 What is Six Sigma?

 Statistically
 Having no more than 3.4 defects per million
 Conceptually
 Program designed to reduce defects
 Requires the use of certain tools and
techniques
 Six Sigma Quality

 Six Sigma allows managers to readily describe

process performance using a common metric: Defects
Per Million Opportunities (DPMO)
Number
Numberof
of defects
defects
DPMO 
DPMO  xx1,000,000
1,000,000
Number
Numberof of 
opportunit ies xx No.
opportunities
for  No. of
of units
units
error per
for error per 
unit 
 unit 
 What is Sigma (σ )

σ % Non- Defective

2 95.46
3 99.73
σ PPM
4 99.9937
5 99.999943 2 308,537
6 99.9999998 3 66,807
4 6,210
5 233
6 3.4

Process Defects per

Capability Million
Opportunity
 Practical Meaning

99% Good (4S) 99.99966% Good (6S)

Postal System

20,000 lost articles of mail/hour 7 lost articles /hour

Airline System
2 short/long landings/day 1 short/long landings/ 5 years

Medical Profession
200,000 wrong drug prescriptions/yr 68 wrong drug prescriptions/yr
 What does 6 Sigma Mean in Your
Life?

PPM
Tax Advice Prescription
Writing Restaurant
1,000,000 Bills
Payroll
100,000 Processing
Baggage
Handling
10,000
1,000
Best
10 In
Class Airline Defect
0 Rate
1
0
1

1 2 3 4 5 6 7
Sigma Level
 Business Impacts of
Variability
 Prevention Costs  Internal Failure
 Education and training  Scrap
 Quality planning  Supplier caused losses
 Product design Qualification tests  Rework
 Supplier qualification  Reset / Re-inspection
 Customer interface  Unplanned downtime
 Controlling process  Trouble shooting
 Appraisal Costs  Engineering change notices
 Incoming inspection  External Failures
 Maintenance and calibration  Processing customer enquiries
of equipment  Maintaining customer field service
 Setup inspection and tests  Retro fit costs
 Field testing  Incurring penalties / claims
 Process audits  Product warranty
 Lost sales
 Six Sigma Programs

Six Sigma programs

 Improve quality
 Save time

 Cut costs

Employed in
 Design
 Production

 Service

 Inventory management

 Delivery—Supply Chain Mgmt

 Project selection - is it Six
Sigma
Is there a problem Yes
significant enough to
be worth fixing How do I define a potential Six Sigma ?
Is there a process Yes
around what you
NO want to fix?

Have you or can Yes

you measure the
NO process?

Yes
Is this a
NO recurring
issue?
NO!
Do you already
NO know how to fix
a problem?

Yes!
NOT A Six-σ project You have a
POTENTIAL
Six σ project
 Identified potential project

 Project identification consists of nominating, screening, and

selecting projects.

 The focus must be on the vital few opportunities.

 All projects should be aligned with the organization's

mission and quality goals.
 Nomination for projects
 Analysis the cost of poor quality, quality standing in the
marketplace, employee satisfaction studies, or other forms of
assessment.
 Improvement goals needed to fulfill annual goals and achieve strategic
goals.
 Analysis of other field intelligence.
 Gaps between goals and actual performance.
 Inputs from all levels of management and the workforce.
 Benchmarking studies of other organizations.
 Developments arising from the impact of product quality on society.
 Evaluate potential projects

 Potential projects are evaluated by asking six questions:

Can we impact?
Can we analyze?
Are data available?
Are they measurable?
What areas are affected?
What is the level of control?
Use Pareto priority index (PPI)

PPI= Savings x Probability of success

Cost x Time to completion years
 Selection of Initial Projects

 The first project should be a winner.

 A successful project is a form of evidence to the project team
members.
 The project should deal with a chronic problem.
 The project should be feasible.
 The project should be significant.
 The results should be measurable in money as well as in technological
terms.
 The project should serve as a learning experience for the process of
problem solving.
 Problem and Mission Statement for Project

 A problem statement identifies a visible deficiency in a planned

outcome.

 A mission statement is based on the problem statement but

provides direction to the project team.

 A goal of a project should be defined.

 Six Sigma Team
 Top management
 Program Champions
 Master “black belts”
 “Black belts”
 “Green belts”
 Six Sigma Management

 Providing strong leadership

 Defining performance metrics
 Selecting projects likely to succeed
 Selecting and training appropriate people
 Six Sigma Technical

 Improving process performance

 Reducing variation
 Utilizing statistical models
 Designing a structured improvement strategy
 Six Sigma Core Team

 Who are they ?

 Multidisciplinary team of 10 or so business leaders from key supporting functions
of the company including:
 Finance
 Human Resource
 Information technology
 Communications
 Training
 Responsibilities
 Take the executive vision and make it a reality
 Create supporting infrastructure which enables the long term success of Six
Sigma Black Belts
 Key deliveries : The Six Sigma Handbook
 Training
 1 day of Six Sigma training
 4 days of infrastructure development workshops
 Six Sigma - Champions
 Who are they?
 Typically a business leader leading a division or geographic region
 Companies can identify “hands-on” and / or “executive” Champions
 Role
 Own the financial results of Projects
 Responsibilities
 Maintains linkage between business strategy and projects
 Recognizes and defines projects
 Selects Black Belts and assigns projects to each
 Removes roadblocks to project success
 Review project activity often with Black Belts
 Report project activity to executive team
 Training
 3-5 days focused on high level understanding of Six Sigma, the hows of project recognition
and definition
 Pitfalls
 If Champions are not actively driving project results and future project identification, Six
Sigma will struggle
 It is common that Champions struggle early on. Providing them with the right support is of
tremendous value.
 Process Owners – In General

 Role
 Owner of the solution delivered by Six Sigma team
 Typical Responsibilities
 Implementation of the team solution
 Assist with culture change at local level
 Assist Champion with potential project identification
 Co-leads realization phase with Finance Rep
 Provides resources to serve as team members on projects
 Training
 2 to 3 days focused on understanding Six Sigma and the role he / she will play in
the deployment
 Eventually trained as Green belt
 Pitfall
 If the Process Owner is not engaged throughout DMAIC, he will not accept the
solution when it’s time to close a project
 Master Black Belt

 Role
 Variable from company to company
 Should make Champions life easier in mature deployment
 Typical Responsibilities
 Instructor and / or mentor Black Belts and / or Green Belts
 Training material developer
 Deployment assistant to core team and Champions
 Keeper of project backlog list
 Driver of project closure process
 Leader of larger scoped projects
 Training
 Certified BB + additional course work and requirements
 Black Belts

 Role
 Practitioner of DMAIC Methodology
 Responsibilities
 Ideally full-time facilitator / leader of Six Sigma project team
 Team should discover and recommend project solution
 Executes 4 to 6 projects / year
 Training
 4 to 5 weeks of DMAIC training
 Personal and professional development for later leadership roles
 Pitfalls
 The likely success of Six Sigma projects dramatically decreases without the
implementation of full-time Black Belts
 If BBs are not selected from amongst the best within an organization, it sends
the wrong message.

? Are the Black Belts in your organization assigned to Six-Sigma full-time ?

 Green Belts

 Role
 Carry the language of Six Sigma deeper into the organization
 Accelerate number of employees positively affected by Six Sigma
 Responsibilities
 Become local advocate
 Part-time implementers of smaller scope projects with direct impact to daily
non-Six Sigma duties
 Assist BB with team activities and tool application to project area
 Training
 Varies from company to company, typically 5 to 15 days of abridged version of
DMAIC
 Pitfalls
 If Green Belts are not properly supported, their effectiveness diminishes
dramatically
 Team Members

 Role
 Extend the reach of the Six Sigma language into the trenches
 Responsibilities
 Assist Black Belts with data collection and tool application
 Provide invaluable process expertise to Six Sigma team
 Assist Process Owner with the long-term implementation of solution
 Training
 Trained by Black Belts during team meetings
 4 to 8 hours of formal classroom training in the basics
 Pitfalls
 Teams that are too small or too large may prevent project success
 Recognition of team member contribution is critical throughout the project life
 Black belt must seek out and get buy-in from Team Members
 Executives and Deployment
Leaders
 Role
 Own the vision, direction, integration and results
 Lead the culture change
 Responsibilities
 Determine the scope of the Six Sigma Deployment
 Identify financial, project, and training related goals
 Identify strategic priorities to which Champions will align projects
 Drive the use of 6σ as standard problem solving methodology
 Training
 1 to 2 days targeted at Six Sigma’s potential impact
 Pitfalls
 Without visible executive support, six Sigma Struggles
 Must push to ensuring full-time Black Belts
 Six Sigma Process
 Define
 Measure
 Analyze  DMAIC
 Improve
 Control
Six Sigma Implementation: DMAIC
Framework
1. Define (D) Customers and their priorities

2. Measure (M) Process and its performance

3. Analyze (A) Causes of defects

4. Improve (I) Remove causes of defects

5. Control (C) Maintain quality

 DMAIC Process

1. Define. This step identifies potential projects, selects and defines a

project, and sets up the project team.
2. Measure. This step documents the process and measures the
current process capability.
3. Analyze. This step collects and analyzes data to determine the
critical process variables.
4. Improve. This step conducts formal experiments, if necessary, to
focus on the most important process variables and determine the
process settings to optimize product results.
5. Control. This step measures the new process capability, documents
the improved process, and institutes controls to maintain the gains.
 Six sigma Methodology

 The Six-sigma approach is a collection of managerial and statistical

concepts and techniques

 Focus on reducing variation in processes and preventing

deficiencies in product.

 Variation in a process is denoted by sigma.

 If the process mean shifts (by 1.5 sigma), no more than 3.4 units per

million fall outside the specification limits.

 Define phase

 Identify potential projects

 Evaluate project

 Select project

 Prepare problem and mission statement for project

 Select and launch project team

 Tools and Techniques of Six
Sigma
 Define Phase

 Strategic alignment and goal deployment

 Cost of Poor Quality analysis
 Project selection and chartering
 Project management
 SIPOC (supplier-input-process-output-customer) map
• Voice of customer (VOC) analysis Median
 Measure phase

 This phase identifies key product parameters and process characteristics

and measures the current process capability.
 The steps are:

1. Document the process.

2. Verify the project need, Y [in Y = f (x)].
3. Plan for data collection.
4. Validate the measurement system.
5. Measure the baseline performance of Y.
6. Measure the process capability.
 Verify the project need:

 A project has been selected because it is important, it is useful.

This process serves two purposes:

 Ensure that the time to be spent by the project team is justified.

 Helps to overcome resistance to accepting and implementing a

remedy.
 Document the Process:

A useful tool is the process flow diagram (or "process map").

A defect (or disconnect) is any non-fulfillment of intended use requirements.

A defect can also go by other names, e.g., error, discrepancy, and non-
conformance.

A symptom is an observable phenomenon arising from and accompanying a

defect.

A theory is an unproved assertion of reasons for the existence of defects and

symptoms. Usually, several theories are advanced to explain the presence of the
observed phenomena.

Contd….
 A cause is a proven reason for the existence of the defect. Multiple causes are
common, in which case they follow the Pareto principle; i.e., the vital
few causes will dominate the rest.

 A remedy is a change that can successfully eliminate or neutralize a cause

of ­defects .
 Plan for Data Collection:

 Chronic problems are usually not easy to solve and require careful planning
and collection of data to confirm and analyze the input and output variables.

 Planning for data collection involves matters such as

where in the process data­will be collected,
who will provide the data and how often,
data collection forms,
data accuracy,
separation of data into categories ("stratification"),
whether the data are sufficient in content and quantity
for the data analysis tools.
 Validate the Measurement System

 It is measured from a process.

 It is the variation of the process itself and variation of the measurement

system.

 Measurement capability involves both the ability of the people making the
measurements and the capability of the measuring instruments .

 It include reproducibility, repeatability, accuracy, stability, and linearity.

 Measure the Process Capability

 It refers to the inherent ability of a process to meet the specification

limits for a product.

 The specification limits must be at least six sigma above and below the
process mean.
 It must recognize both short term and long term variation.
 Tools and Techniques of Six
Sigma
 Measure Phase

• Process mapping
• Process FMEA
• Data collection planning
• MSA
• Graphs and charts
• Stratification
• Process capability analysis
• Sigma calculation
• Pareto chart(s)
• Brainstorming
• Cause-effect (or fishbone) diagrams
 Analyze phase:

 This phase analyzes past and current performance data.

The steps are:

Plan for data collection.

Collect and analyze data.

Test theories (hypothesis) on sources of variation and cause-

effect relationships (i.e., identify the determinants of process
performance).
 Plan for data collection.

 Teams are seeking the answers to questions,

How often does the problem occur?
or

What is causing the problem?

 The key issue is not "How do we collect data?

 The key issue is "How do we generate useful information?

Contd…..
 To generate information, we need to:

 Formulate precisely the question we are trying to answer.

 Collect data relating to that question.

 Analyze the data to determine the factual answer to the question.

 Present the data in a way that clearly communicates the answer to the question
 Collect and Analyze Data

 Many managers beliefs that defects are mainly worker- controllable.

 A study to determine whether defects, are primarily management-

controllable or worker controllable.

 In general, defects are more than 80% management-controllable and less

than 20% worker-controllable.
 Test of theories involving human error

 Diagnosis of human errors reveals "multiple species" of errors.

 The great majority of worker errors fall into one of four categories:

Unintentional
 Inadvertent
Unwitting
 Technique Unpredictable

 Conscious

 Communication

Contd…..
 Remedies for inadvertent errors involve two approaches:
1. Reducing the extent of dependence on human attention.
2. Helping workers remain attentive.

Unintentional
 Technique errors: Specific
Unavoidable
 Tools and Techniques of Six
Sigma
 Analyze Phase

• Data collection planning

• Power and sample size
• Confidence intervals
• Hypothesis testing protocol
• T-tests, ANOVA, test for Normality, tests for Equal Variances
• Nonparametric tests
• Correlation, regression
• Chi-square Contingency Tables (Test of Independence)
• Proportions tests
 Improve phase:

The steps are:

1. Evaluate alternative remedies.

2. If necessary, design formal experiments to optimize process performance.

3. Design a remedy.

4. Prove the effectiveness of the remedy.

5. Deal with resistance to change.

6. Transfer the remedy to operations.

 Tools and Techniques of Six
Sigma
 Improve Phase

• Design of Experiments (DOE)

• Creative Thinking
• Benchmarking
• Lean (or kaizen) event
• Mistake proofing
• Pugh matrix, criteria selection matrix, payoff matrix
• Process mapping
• Process FMEA
• Stakeholder analysis
• Change management
• Project management
 Control phase:

 Design controls and document the improved process.

 Validate the measurement system.

 Determine the final process capability.

 Implement and monitor the process controls.

 Tools and Techniques of Six
Sigma
 Control Phase

• Self-control analysis
• Process Control Plan
• Mistake proofing
• 5S
• Statistical Process Control
• Standard Operating Procedure
• Change management
 Additional Six Sigma Tools:

 Opportunity Flow Diagram used to graphically show those

activities that add value from those that are performed (and
maybe could be reduced or removed) that do not add value to
the finished product
 Failure Mode and Effect Analysis (FMEA) is a structured
approach to identify, estimate, prioritize, and evaluate risk of
possible failures at each stage in the process
 Design of Experiments (DOE) a statistical test to determine
cause-and-effect relationships between process variables and
output
 Emergent QM Strategy:
Six Sigma
GOAL : Target 3  ( customer ' s tolerance)
 A philosophy and set of methods companies use to
eliminate defects in their products and processes
 Seeks to reduce variation in the processes that lead
to product defects
 The name, “six sigma” refers to the variation that
exists within plus or minus three standard
deviations of the process outputs
Quality improvement from 3 to Six Sigma

6 process
Off
Off
spec 3 process spec

-3 -2 -1 µ +1 +2 +3
Lower Upper
Spec Spec
Limit Limit
Focus of Six Sigma Problem
Solving

Y= f(x)
To get results, should we focus our behavior on the Y or X ?
 Y  X1… X2
 Dependent  Independent
 Output  Input -
 Effect Process
 Symptom  Cause
 Monitor  Problem
 Control
Focus on X rather than Y, as done historically
 Understanding Variation (Six
σ)
Traditional Philosophy : Goalpost Taguchi Philosophy : Variation is
Mentality Evil !
LSL USL LSL USL

Anything outside the Any deviation from the target

specification limits represents causes customers losses
quality losses
 Overall Approach

HEADSET
Practical Statistical
Problem Problem

y = f(x1,x2, … ,xk) TOOLSET

Practical Statistical
Solution HEADSET Solution
 How Do We Improve Capability?

 Our outputs (Y) are determined by our Inputs (X’s). If we know

enough about our X’s we can accurately predict Y
 If we don’t know much about our X’s, thenStatistical
we have to resort to
Problem
inspection and test (Non-Value-Added Operations)

y = f(x1,x2, … ,xk)
Paint Thickness = (Paint Viscosity, spray Angle, spray
Pressure, Standard Operating Procedures,
… , Spray Pattern)

By knowing and controlling the X’s, we reduce the

variability in Y. we eliminate or reduce inspection,
test and rework.
 Module Objectives

 Six Sigma from 50,000 Feet

 What is it?
 Where did it come from?
 Why does it work?
 Six Sigma Literally speaking
 What does it mean - statistically?
 What does it mean – practically?
 Common Questions
 Powerful MAIC Process
Measure
Pour in all possible input variables

(All input variables ) 30 Process Mind

- 50 position created
New VP of Quality and assigned to Mapping
Mapping investigate options for
10 -systems
new quality 20 Ishakawa Survey
Diagrams Design
Analyze Use soft tools to narrow the possibilities
C&E FMEA
(Key input variables )
Matrix
8 - 10 Use quantitative tools to further narrow the field
Improve
Anov Logistics Regression Correlati
(Critical input variables4) - 8 a on
Survey Multi Variate
Q5 Start of BB Analysis
Analysis
Implement and based
validatetraining means forecasts
Control
on solutions
specific project
(Key leverage variables2) - 5 DOEs Surveys
opportunities
Implement systems to ensure
improvements are maintained
SPC Audi Poka- Control
ts Yoke Plan
 Business Impacts of
Variability
 Process map
 Cause and effects matrix
 Failure modes and effects analysis
 Measurement system analysis  Multi-vari studies
 Capability analysis  Fractional factorial experiments
 Descriptive statistics  Full factorial experiments
 Graphical techniques
 Box Plots
 Response surface methods
 Histograms  Transformations
 Scatterplots  Normal distribution
 Time Series Plots
 Run charts
 Sample size determination
 Pareto charts  Test for equal variances
 Check sheets  Fishbone Diagrams
 Statistical process control charts  Hypothesis Testing
 Correlation
of equipment
 F – test
 Simple and multiple regression  T – test
 Inferential statistics  Chi – square test
 Confidence intervals  Tests for normality
 Non-Parametric tests
 Analysis of Variance
 Basic Statistics Topics

 Types of Data
 Distributions
 Measures of the Center of the Data
 Mean
 Median
 Measures of the Spread of Data
 Range
 Variance
 Standard Deviation
 Measures of the shape of the Data
 Normal Distribution
 Normal Probabilities
 Data Mining
 Types of Data

 Attribute / discrete data

 Categories
 Good / Bad
 Customer 1, Customer 2, Customer 3
 Shift number
 Counted things
> (# of Errors in a document, # units shipped, etc.,)

 Variable / Continuous Data

 Continuous Data (Decimal subdivisions are meaningful)
> Time (seconds)
> Pressure (psi)
> Conveyer speed (m/min)
> Thickness (mm)
 Statistical Distributions

 We can describe the behavior of any process or system by plotting

multiple data points for the same variable:
 Over time
 Across products
 On different machines, etc.

 The accumulation of these data can be viewed as a distribution of

values
 Represented by :
 Dot plots
 Histograms
 Normal curve or other “smoothed” distribution
Histogram Distribution
Smoothed (Normal) Distribution
 Measures of Center data
Central Tendency
 Mean : Arithmetic average of a set of values
 Reflects the influence of all values
 Strongly influenced by extreme values
n

x
n

x n
x  n 1
n
n
x  n 1
n
 Median : Reflects the 50% rank – the center number
after a set of numbers has been sorted
 Does not necessarily include all values in calculation
 Is “robust” to extreme scores
Why would we mainly use the mean, instead
of the median, in process improvement
efforts?
 Spread of data variability Measures

 Range: the distance between the extreme values of a data

set (Highest – Lowest)

 Variance (σ2 ): the Average Squared Deviation of each

data point from the Mean
 Standard Deviation (σ ): The square Root of the Variance
 The range is more sensitive to outliers than the variance

The most common and useful measure of

variation is the standard deviation – why?
 Computational Equations

Population Mean Sample Mean

N n

x i x i
  i 1 x  i 1
N n
Population Sample Standard
Standard Deviation
Deviation
N n

  xi     x  x 
2 2
i

  i 1  s  i 1

N n 1
 Spread of data variability Measures

Sample Statistics Population

Parameters
x = Sample Mean
 = Population Mean
 
 = Sample Standard Deviation = Population Standard
Deviation
 The Normal Distributions

 The “Normal” Distribution is a distribution of data

which has certain consistent properties

 These properties are very useful in our understanding

of the characteristics of the underlying process from
which the data were obtained

 Most natural phenomena and man-made processes are

distributed normally, or can be represented as normally
distributed (through transformations).
 The Normal Distributions

 Property 1

 A Normal distribution can be described completely by knowing only the

> mean, and
> standard deviation

What is the difference

between the three
distributions ?
 The Normal Distributions
(Probability Areas and Standard Deviation)

 Property 2
The area under sections of the curve can be used to estimate the
cumulative probability of a certain “event” occurring

Cumulative
probability of
obtaining a value
between two values
 Numerical Summary
Measures

These are three basic summary

(descriptive) measures used to organize
and display data sets

 Measures of Central tendency

 Measures of dispersion or scatter
 Measures of position
 Measures of Central Tendency for
Ungrouped Data

 Mean for Ungrouped data

The mean, also called arithmetic mean or average, for ungrouped
data is obtained by dividing sum of all values by the number of
values in the data set.

  X
Mean for population data,
N

X
 X
Mean for population data,
n
 Median
 Mode
 Measures of Dispersion for Ungrouped Data

 Range
 Variance and Standard deviation
The standard deviation is the most used measure of dispersion.
The formulas for calculating the variance and standard deviation
are as follows:

 x
2

 x   
2
x 2

N
2  
N N
 x
2

  x X
2
x 2

n
s2  
n 1 n 1
 Example

The following data refers to the pay (in thousand

of dollars) of 12 employees at a manufacturing
company.
75 69 65 49 21 21 18 18 17 16
16 15
a) calculate the mean, medium, and mode for
this data
b) find the range, variance, and standard deviation
 Solution

a) Mean
 x  400 $33,333
n 12
th
n 1
Median is  term in a ranked data set.
 2  Therefore,
n  1 12  1
 6.5
2 2

21 18
Median  $19,500
2
Mode $21,000, $18,000, and $16,000
 Solution (contd.)

b) Range = Largest pay – Smallest pay= $75,000 –

$15,000 = $60,000

 x
2

 x2 
 19,528 
4002
Variance  s 2  n  12 563.1515
n 1 12  1
Standard deviation  s  s 2  563.1515 23.73 $23, 730
 Measures of Position

 Quartiles and Interquartile range

The most commonly used percentiles are quartiles. Let n

denote the number of observations and if we arrange the data in
increasing order, then
 n 1
the first quartile is at position  
 4 
 n 1
the second quartile is the median, which is at position  
 2 
 n 1
the third quartile is at position 3  
 4 
 Random Variables

 A random variable is a variable whose value is

determined by the outcome of a random experiment.

 Random variables are numerical-valued whose

observed values are governed by the laws of
probability.

 A random variable can be discrete or continuous.

 Discrete Random Variables

 Let X is a random variable. If the number of possible values of X is finite or

countably infinite, X is called a discrete random variable. Each possible
outcome is xi. A number, p (Xi) = p (X = xi), gives the probability that the
random variable X equals a value, xi. The numbers, p (xi), for i = 1, 2,, . ,,
must satisfy the following two conditions.

 1. p ( xi ) 0 for all i


2.
 p( x ) 1
i 1
i

The collection of pairs [xI, p (xi)], i =1,2,…, is called the probability distribution
of X, and p (xi) is called the probability mass function (or pmf) of X.
 Discrete Random Variables
(contd…)

 The probability distribution for the variable X

p( x)
p (1)
p (2) p (3) px

p (0)

0 1 2 3 x

The cumulative distribution function of a discrete random

variables is defined as P ( X  xi )   p ( xi )
xi X
 Continuous Random
Variables
 If the range space of the random variable X is an interval or a collection of
intervals, X is called a continuous random variable. If a and b be are real
numbers and a < b, then the probability that X lies in the interval [a, b] is
defined as
b
P  a  X b  f (x) dx
a

The function f(x) is known as the probability density function (or p d f) of the
random variable X. The p d f must satisfy the following conditions:

1.f ( x) 0  x



f ( x)dx 1
2.

The Probability Density Function
(pdf)

x=a x=b
 Discrete Distributions

 Hypergeometric Distribution
Suppose there is a population of finite size N that contains a
specified number of nonconforming components D. Then,
the probability that a sample of size n containing x non-
conforming components is given by
 N D
  D
x  n  x 
 p( x ) 1p(x)=
i 1
i
 N
x=0,1,2,...,min n,D 
 
n
where, a a!
 
 b  b!a-b !
 Discrete Distributions
(contd…)
 Binomial Probability Distribution
The probability Pr of an event succeeding r times is

n!
p 1  p 
r n-r
Pr  or,Pr  n C r p r q n-r
r!n-r !

 Mean of Binomial Distribution

 np

 Standard deviation of Binomial Distribution

σ  npq or np(1  p)
 Discrete Distributions
(contd…)
 Poisson Distribution
The probability Pr of an event succeeding r times is

np 
r

Pr  e-np
r!
 Mean of Poisson Distribution
 np

 S.d of Poisson Distribution

σ  pq
 The Normal Distribution
 Normal Distribution
The normal distribution is in many respects the cornerstone of
statistics. A random variable X is said to have a normal
distribution with mean  (- <  < ) and variance 2 > 0 if it
has the density function

1  1 2  x-  
2

f x   e for   X 
 2

 Mean of Normal Distribution

 np
 S.d of Normal Distribution
σ  pq
 The Normal Distribution


1. 

f ( x)dx 1

2. f ( x) 0 For all x [required of all density

functions]
3. lim f ( x) 0 and lim f ( x) 0
x  x  

4. f [( x   )]  f [ ( x   )] Symmetric density about μ

f
5. The maximum value of 
occursx at
 The Standard Normal
Distribution

The probability distribution function is given by,

1 -z 2 / 2
 (z)  e -  z  
2

is a normal distribution with mean 0 and variance

1; that is, Z  N(0, 1) and we say that Z has a
standard normal distribution.
 Example

The diameter of a metal shaft for a precision

instrument is assumed to be normally distributed
with a mean of 0.5 mm and a standard deviation of
0.025 mm.
a) What is the probability that a shaft diameter is
greater than 0.31 mm?
b) What is the probability that a shaft diameter is
between 0.235 and
0.315 mm?
c) The diameter of 90% of samples is below what value?
 Solution

a) P( X  0.31)  P  Z  0.315  0.25  P(Z  3) 0.00135

 0.025 

b) P (0.235 < X < 0.315) = P (-0.6 < Z < 2.6)

= P (Z < 2.6) – P (Z < - 0.6) = 0.99534 – 0.27425 = 0.72109

 X  0.25 
c) P( X  x)  P  Z   0.90
 0.025 
x  0.25
Hence, 1.28
0.025
and, x 0.282
 Tutorial

Problem I
A lot contains 140 electronic components and 20 are
selected without replacement for quality testing.
a. if 20 components are defective, what is the probability
that at least one defective component is in the sample?
b. if 5 components are defective, what is the probability that
at least one defective component appears in the sample?
 Solution

Let X denotes the number of components in the sample

that are defective.
a. P(X  1) = 1 – P (X = 0)
 20   120  120!
   
0 20  20! 100! 120! 120!
P(X 0)       0.0424
 140  140! 100! 140!
  20! 120!
 20 

P(X  1) = 1-0.0424 = 0.9576

 Solution (contd…)

b. P(X  1) = 1 – P (X = 0)
 20   135  135!
   
 0   20  20! 115! 135! 120!
P(X 0)    0.4571
140
  140! 115! 140!
  20! 120!
 20 

P(X  1) = 1-0.4571 = 0.5429

 Tutorial

Problem II
A photocopying machine in an office breaks down an
average of three times per month. Using the Poisson
probability distribution formula, find the probability that
during the next month this machine will have
a. exactly two breakdowns
b. at most one breakdown.
 Solution

Let  be the mean number of breakdowns per month and

x be the actual number of breakdowns observed during
the next month for this machine. Then,

a. The probability that exactly two breakdowns will be

observed during the next month is given by

 x e   (3) 2 e  3 (9)(.04978)
P(X 2)    .2240
x! 2! 2
 Solution (contd…)

b. The probability that at most one breakdown will be

observed during the next month is given by the sum of
the probabilities of zero and one breakdown.
Hence P (at most 1 breakdown)
= P (0 or 1 breakdown) = P(x = 0) +P(x =1)
(3)0 e  3 (3)1 e  3 (1)(.04978) (3)(.04978)
   
0! 1! 1 1
= 0.0498 + 0.1494 = 0.1992
 Tutorial

Problem III
The diameter of a machine shaft produced in a
manufacturing company is normally distributed with a
mean diameter of 0.001 inches and a standard deviation of
0.0002 inches.
a. what is the probability that the diameter of the shaft
exceeds 0.0013 inches?
b. what is the probability that a diameter of the shaft is
between 0.0007 and 0.0013 inches?
c. what standard deviation of diameters is needed so
that the probability in part (b) is 0.995?
 Solution

 0.0013  0.001 
a. P(x  0.0013) P  Z   P(Z  1.5) 0.06681
 0.0002 
b. P (0.0007 < x < 0.0013) = P (-1.5 < Z < 1.5)
= 2P (Z<1.5) - 1 = 0.86638
 0.0007  0.001   0.0013  0.001 
c. P(0.0007 < x < 0.0013) = P    Z 
     
 0.0003  0.0003 
P     Z   
  
0.0003
2P  Z   0.0003   1 0.995 1.405
  
 0.000214