Professional Documents
Culture Documents
Presentation in
1
collect enough data about elements of costs and Benefits of project
2
Predict a cash flow for costs& Benefits over the Project life time
3
Select a discount rate and Calculate NPV & IRR of the project
4
Make a sensitivity analysis
Cost Benefit Analysis Cost-Benefit Analysis for A combined cycle power plant
Fuel costs Project Revenues Income Statement Cash Flow net income
Capital Cost
Capital Cost
-It is the costs of equipments and materials that will be used in the construction process of the power plant.
Un certainty components
Capital Cost Risk & Un certainty Components Causes of Risk & Un certainty: Increasing in the prices of raw materials The lapsing of deadlines for construction of a new operating facility. The change of a political system Natural disasters
Working Capital
Physical Contingency
Price Contingency
All Uncertainty components: Working Capital Physical contingency Price Contingency) are added to the Direct Costs of the Capital cost.
Definition:
It includes costs of all various services required to assure that the power plant will perform the functions it was designed and constructed for. Operations and maintenance are combined into the common term O&M because a facility cannot operate at peak efficiency without being maintained; therefore the two are discussed as one.
Variable O&M
Fixed O&M
Example:
Minor unplanned maintenance. Periodic maintenance costs. Water treatment chemicals.
Example:
Plant manager's office & employee salaries. Technical support costs.
So
The values of the Fixed O&M Cost ($/KW) is divided into 3 unequal components: skilled workers (60 % of total fixed O&M cost) unskilled workers (30 % of total fixed O&M cost) Administrators (10 % of total fixed O&M cost)
Column (G, H, I, J& K) Those 5 columns represent the calculation of the Fixed O&M costs in the Economical Cost Benefit analysis.
+ +
Variable O&M costs (million $) = Variable O&M costs ($/MWh) * Total generated energy (GWh) / 1000
Fuel Costs
Fuel Costs
It is the costs related to the fuel consumption process which is required for the generation of electrical energy from the power plant. Required items for fuel costs calculation: Power plant heat rate Fuel calorific value (Heat content) Fuel Price ($/MMBTU)
Fuel Costs
Power plant heat rate It is the total amount of heat energy needed by all units in the power plant to produce one unit of electrical energy. (BTU/KWh) How to calculate the total heat rate for a combined cycle power plant
The combined cycle power plant consists of 2 gas turbines and 1 steam turbine. The fuel consumption occurs in the 2 gas turbines, where the steam turbine depends on the hot exhausted gas from the gas turbine in generating the electrical energy.
Fuel Costs
Assume the heat rate of one gas turbine is (1000 BTU/KWH). It means that The amount of heat energy needed by the gas turbine is (1000 BTU) to produce one (KWH) of electrical energy So, if the power plant works with this gas turbine only Then, One gas turbine heat rate 1000 BTU/KWH Total power plant heat rate 1000 BTU/KWH
Fuel Costs
If the power plant works with 2 gas turbines ,where the heat rate of each one is (1000 /KWH) So, One gas turbine heat rate 1000 BTU/KWH
Two gas turbine heat rate 2 * 1000 BTU/ 2 KWH Two gas turbine heat rate 1000 BTU/KWH Then, Total power plant heat rate 1000 BTU/KWH
Fuel Costs
when the power plant works with 2 gas turbines and one steam turbine ,where the steam turbine does not consumes any additional amount of fuel but it depends on the exhausted gas from the 2 gas turbines to generate electrical energy. So, One gas turbine heat rate 1000 BTU/KWH Two gas turbine heat rate 1000 BTU/KWH
2 gas turbine & 1 steam turbine heat rate 2* 1000 BTU/ 3 KWH 2 gas turbine & 1 steam turbine heat rate (2/3)*1000 BTU/KWH
Fuel Costs
Then, Total power plant heat rate (2/3) * 1000 BTU/KWH Total power plant heat rate 666.6 BTU/KWH It means that, The total amount of heat energy needed by the combined cycle power plant is (666.6 BTU) to produce one (KWH) of electrical energy
Fuel Costs
Fuel calorific value (Heat content)
The calories or the thermal units contained in one unit of fuel and released when that fuel is burned. (BTU/m3) The combined cycle power plant it can work with 2 types of fuel: (Natural Gas) as the main type of fuel. (Solar) as the secondary fuel type in case of unavailability of natural gas .
Fuel Costs
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis:
Fuel Costs
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (D) This column represents the total generated energy (GWh) from the power plant over the project life time.
Fuel Costs
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (E) This column represents the total heat rate of the power plant (BTU/KWh) over the project life time. Note 1: The total heat rate of the power plant increases over the project life time due to aging and depreciation.
Fuel Costs
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Note 2: After each 5 years, the total heat rate of the power plant is reduces with small value due to the periodic maintenance of the power plant. Note 3: The changing in the heat rate of the power plant over project life time, can be provided from the manufacturer of the power plant or from a historical data for other combined cycle power plants in the electrical grid.
Fuel Costs
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis:
Column (F&G)
This 2 columns represent the prices of (Natural gas) and (Solar) in ($/MMBTU) over the power plant life time.
Fuel Costs
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Note: In the Financial analysis the represented fuel prices over the project life time is considered to be the fuel market prices, which can be taken according to: An agreement between the ministry of electricity and the fuel supplier By making escalation in the first year fuel price with suitable and realistic escalation rate.
Fuel Costs
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (H) This column represents the total fuel costs of the power plant in (million $) over the project life time. The total fuel costs (M$) = The Natural gas costs (M$) + The Solar costs (M$)
Fuel Costs
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Note:
The main fuel type (Natural gas) is considered to be representing 95% in the total fuel costs. The secondary fuel type (Solar) is considered to be representing 5% in the total fuel costs.
Fuel Costs
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Then, The Natural gas costs (M$) =Energy Generated (MWh) * Power Plant Heat Rate (MMBTU/MWh)* Natural Gas Price ($/MMBTU)* 95% The Solar costs (M$) =Energy Generated (MWh) * Power Plant Heat Rate (MMBTU/MWh)* Solar Price ($/MMBTU)* 5% The total fuel costs (M$) = The Natural gas costs (M$) + The Solar costs (M$)
Fuel Costs
Economical Cost Benefit Analysis: The representing of fuel costs in the economical analysis for the over the project life time is done by the same methodology of representing the fuel costs in the financial analysis. except that, In the economical analysis the fuel prices is entered in its real prices.
Project Revenue
This part represents the revenues from selling the electrical energy generated from the power plant in the cash flow analysis.
Project Revenue
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis:
Project Revenue
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (C) This column represents the total generated energy (GWh) from the power plant over the project life time.
Project Revenue
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (D) This column represents the market prices for selling the generated energy ($/KWh), which will be used by the company that owns the power plant over the power plant lifetime.
Project Revenue
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (D) The Market prices for selling the electrical energy can be chosen according to : energy selling agreement of the ministry of electricity by making escalation in the base year selling price of the generating company which owns the power plant.
Project Revenue
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: The Market prices for selling the electrical energy can be chosen according to : An energy selling agreement set by the generating company which owns the power plant. By making escalation in the base year selling price of the generating company which owns the power plant with asuitable escalation rate.
Project Revenue
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (E) This column represents the total revenue from the combined cycle power plant (million $) which can be calculated by, The total revenue (million $) = Energy Generated (KWh)* average system price ($/Kwh)
Project Revenue
Economical Cost Benefit Analysis: The economical cost benefit analysis uses the same calculating methodology of the financial cost benefit analysis, except that the selling prices is taken as: or the Long run marginal cost of electrical energy Export selling prices The willingness to pay prices: The maximum amount of money a person would be willing to pay, in order to receive the required electrical energy. The Long run marginal cost of electrical energy
Income statement
Income statement (also referred to as profit and loss statement P&L), It indicates how the costs money spent to generate electrical energy the revenues money received from the sale of the electrical energy
transformed into The net income the result after expenses have been deducted from revenues
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis:
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (C) This column represents the revenues (million $) from selling the energy generated from the combined cycle power plant. Column (D) This column represents total O&M costs (million $).
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (E) This column represents total Fuel costs (million $). Column (F) This column represents the depreciation (million $) of the combined cycle power plant.
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Depreciation in the cost benefit analysis is considered as the allocation of the cost of assets to the period in which the assets are used. Depreciation value of a fixed asset over the asset life time =[Total capital cost of the fixed asset (million $) / asset life time (years)]
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: The combined cycle power plant, consists of 2 gas turbines and one steam turbine, where the 2 gas turbines are replaced after 25 years from the year of commissioning of the power plant, so the depreciation can be calculated as, For the first 25 years: [CCGT capital cost (million $) with (IDC) gas turbines capital cost (million $) / 40] + [gas turbines capital cost (million $) / 25]
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: For the last 15 years: [CCGT capital cost (million $) with (IDC) gas turbines capital cost (million $) / 40] + [gas turbines capital cost (million $) / 15] With taking into consideration that the gas turbines capital cost used for the last 15 years is the escalated value of the gas turbines for 25 years from the base year.
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (G) This column represents the taxable income (million $) over the project life time. Definition: It is the amount of income that is used to calculate the power plant income tax due. Taxable income is adjusted calculated after adjustment by deducting all costs from the power plant revenue. Taxable income (million $) = Revenues O&M costs Fuel costs Depreciation
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Depreciation is assumed to be represented in the cash flow analysis according to the concept of allocation of the cost of assets to periods in which the assets are used It means that The annual depreciation values will be treated as an annual required amount of money deducted from the revenues over the power plant lifetime to allocate adequate amount of money equal to the capital cost of the power plant at the end of the power plant lifetime.
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: According to the following reasons the taxes is applied to the income after adjusting costs from revenues. depreciation as the previous concept can not be treated as a pure revenue. So, The depreciation is deducted from the revenues to calculate the taxable income.
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (H) This column represents the amount of taxes required from the combined cycle power plant for each year over the project life time. Taxes (million $) =Taxable income (million $) * tax rate (%) Tax rate has been assumed to be (20%).
Income statement
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Column (I) This column represents the net income from the power plant for each year over the project life time which can be calculated by, Net Income (million $) = Taxable Income Taxes
Income statement
Economical Cost Benefit Analysis:
Income statement
Economical Cost Benefit Analysis: the economical cost benefit analysis is done from the country point of view, so the taxes is considered as a sharing of resources and are not applied to the revenues from selling the generated electrical energy from the power plant. Then, there is no requirement in the economical analysis to calculate the annual values of depreciation or deduct it annually from the revenues to estimate the taxable income, where the net income is calculated directly by, Net Income (million$) = Revenues O&M expenses Fuel expenses
Dept Service
It is the amount of money required to be paid on a loan in the form of principal & interest repayments over a period of time.
principal repayments
Interest expenses
Dept Service
Principle Repayments: Interest expenses: Interest During Construction: It is the interests that accumulate during the construction period on a loan that finances the construction process of a building or a project
Dept Service
Interest During Construction: It is the interests that accumulate during the construction period on a loan that finances the construction process of a building or a project Example: Let us assume a company needs to begin a new project requires (1500 million $) total capital cost. The company will finance that project by taking a long term loan from a specific Bank as installments throughout the construction period of the project (4 years)
The Interest during Construction (IDC) = (150 * 2.1%) + (400 * 3%) + (500 * 4.5%) + (450 * 1.5%) = 3.15 + 12 + 22.5 + 6.75 = 44.4 million $
Dept Service
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: Representation of Dept Service in the financial cost-benefit analysis changes according to 3 Cases Case 3 Capitalization of IDC
Dept Service
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: (Case 1: Un leveraged IRR) It is calculated Before the financing decisions are made, where the capital cost of the power plant is assumed to be all equity funded. For this type of IRR the cash flow stream is assumed to be with no debt service (principle repayments, interest expenses & interests during construction)
Dept Service
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: (Case 2: leveraged IRR) It is calculated, When the financing decisions are made and it is decided to fund the project with some leverage (loans). For this type of IRR the cash flow stream reflects the actual Capital Structure with all Dept Service components (principle repayments, interest expenses & interests during construction)
Dept Service
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis:
Dept Service
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: (Case 3: Capitalization of IDC) The IDC is a cost for the project; which is calculated only for the years of construction until the project begins to generate revenue, and be able to service its debts. In this case the interests during construction (IDC) is assumed to be added to the capital cost directly.
Dept Service
Economical Cost Benefit Analysis: In the economical cost benefit analysis the capital costs of the project is considered to be provided as a loan from the country it self. This loan does not represent a use of resources like (fuel consumption costs) but only a transfer of resources from the payer to the payee (money inside the country). So even if that loan required dept services (interest repayments, principle repayments or interests during construction) it is not included in the economic analysis
Share of the loan of Bank from the total capital cost = [Loan of Bank / Total Capital Cost] Share of the loan of [Bank 1 (400 M$)] from [the total capital cost (1500 M$)] = [400 / 1500] = 26.6 %
WACC =
[Share of bank (1) * Interest of bank (1)] + [Share of bank (2) * Interest of bank (2)] + [Share of bank (2) * Interest of bank (2)]
Discount Rate
Financial Cost Benefit Analysis: From the financial point of view the weighted average cost of capital (WACC) is the appropriate discount rate that can be used in discounting the cash flow of the project. Economical Cost Benefit Analysis: In the economical cost-benefit analysis a real discount rate is used for the cash flow.