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Slowdown of Indian Economy : Time to be Protectionist?

GROUP: 9 ABHINAV ARYA (2011007) ADARSH RAJ BARONIA (2011013) ADITI GUPTA (2011014) ARJIT AGARWAL (2011045)

An Economic Idea of India


Strengths
sustained growth at 6.4 for over a decade (but recent slowdown) strong export potential, current a/c deficit low healthy forex reserves low external debt deepening financial sector knowledge base advantage, demographic surge

Weaknesses
fiscal deficit high, debt gdp ratio high fiscal situation of states worse inadequate infrastructure, huge funding need unsatisfactory investment climate rising gap between rich and poor states dependence on oil imports, monsoons slowing of reforms, coalition compulsions social indicators below world average

Real GDP growth of India


2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011*

4.4%

3.9%

4.6%

6.9%

8.1%

9.2%

9.7%

9.9%

6.4%

6.8%

10.4%

6.9%

GDP - composition by sector

Agriculture: 18.1% Industry: 26.3% Services: 55.6% (2011 estimate) (Data released on February 2012)

Source : Global Finance

Reasons for slowdown :


High Inflation Slow Reform Movement Stalling Growth Prospects! Earnings Slowdown Impacted by higher Operating costs! 4. Current Account Deficit Signs of Growing Concern! 5. Industrial Growth A bit too volatile to Digest!
1. 2. 3.

6.
7. 8. 9. 10.

Rising Interest Rates Renders Working Conditions


Costly! Fiscal Deficit The Unbudgeted woes! FII Selling Moving back to the West! Global woes India still not decoupled yet! Corruption Anna Hazare effect

Protectionism
represents any attempt by a government to impose restrictions on trade in goods and services between countries:
0 Tariffs - import taxes. 0 Quotas - quantitative limits on the level of imports allowed. 0 Voluntary Export Restraint Arrangements where two countries

make an agreement to limit the volume of their exports to one another over an agreed period of time.
0 Embargoes - a total ban on imported goods. 0 Intellectual property laws (patents and copyrights). 0 Export subsidies - a payment to encourage domestic production by

lowering their costs.


0 Import licensing - governments grants importers the license to import

goods.

Economic justifications for protectionism


0 Infant Industry Argument 0 Protection a reaction against import dumping
0 The nature of Dumping 0 Export subsidies and dumping in developing countries 0 Protection against dumping : Anti Dumping

0 Externalities, Market Failure and Import

Controls
0 Danger of over specialization

Economic Arguments against Protectionism


0 Hurts consumers

0 Market distortion:
0 Higher prices for consumers 0 Reduction in market access for producers

0 Loss of economic welfare


0 Regressive effect on the distribution of income 0 Production inefficiencies

0 Little protection for employment


0 Negative multiplier effects

The diagram below shows the welfare consequences of imposing an import tariff

0 http://articles.timesofindia.indiatimes.com/2011-09-

25/india/30200404_1_economic-crisis-globaleconomy-protectionism

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