2010 2060

99 9 6

6 7

3
Cohort-Component Method

2009 28.9 10 2.8

15-49 10 6.1
10 8.6 25-34

15-49
(%)

15-24 25- 34 35- 44 45- 49

()

( )
1989
25.6
147
59.1
14.8
1999
26.1
159
54.5
8.8
2005
27.4
125
49.2
5.1
2006
27.8
125
48.3
4.6
2007
28.1
115
47.4
4.1
2008
28.4
129
46.7
3.7
2009
28.9
98
45.9
3.2

76.5
63.7
49.3
47.2
45.3
44.1
42.9

87.8
81.5
75.5
74.2
72.9
71.8
70.7

88.2
81.4
77.3
76.4
75.6
74.8
74.1
4


10
2.6
10
8.3

( )

(%)

()

1989
1999

25.2
26.7

43.6
45.4

35.0
37.9

21.4
16.7

1.69
1.55

2005

27.7

51.2

37.4

11.4

1.12

2006
2007
2008
2009

28.1
28.5
28.9
29.3

52.7
52.8
53.2
53.7

36.2
36.5
36.4
36.5

11.1
10.7
10.4
9.8

1.11
1.10
1.06
1.03




7-8

0-14 65

(%)
0-14 15-64 65

1989
315
103
212
-10
1993
326
111
215
-22
1999
284
126
158
6
2005
206
139
66
15
2006
204
136
69
38
2007
204
141
63
19
2008
199
144
55
24
2009
191
144
48
35

27.5
25.1
21.4
18.7
18.1
17.6
17.0
16.3

66.5
67.8
70.1
71.6
71.9
72.2
72.6
73.0

6.0
7.1
8.4
9.7
10.0
10.2
10.4
10.6


2003 2005
0.90 1.26
2
2009 1.03

2.0
1.8

1.6
1.4
(
1.2

1.26
1.26

1.08

1.0
0.8

0.90

1.37
1.22
1.15
1.04
1.03

1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2009



t
0

1
2

49

99
100

15
16

t+1
0

1
2

15
16

49

99
100

t+1
0

1
2

15
16

49

99
100
8

2010
0.9
2060 1.6 1.3
0.8

1.9
1.8
1.7
1.6
1.5
1.4
1.3
1.2
1.1
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7

1.6
1.3
0.9
0.8

1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060
9


2010 17.6 1.5
50 14.4 10.8
5.6
350

300
250
176

200
150

50

56

100

144
108

0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2010 18.0 17.6 17.2

2060
10

 100
2010 109.6 50 25
109.0 25
2060 107.5
2008 105.2 106.4 2009 107.5

112
111

110
109

108

=100

107

109.6

108.4

107.5

106
105
104
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
11


0
2010 76.1 82.7 6.6
2060 83.0 89.0 6.0

95

70

89.0

82.7
83.0
76.75

90

85

80

75

76.1

71.33

65
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

12


2010 15.0
50 34.1
1
350

341

300
250
200

150

150
100

)
50
0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060

2010 15.0 2060 2060

34.2 34.0

13

()

1500

2007

1250

2008

1000

2007 3,817
2008 4,139
2009 5,191

2009

750
500
250
0
0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

2007 21,748
2008 20,392
2009 42,656

80

90100+

2010 5,300
2020 6,000
2007~2009

()
2500
2000
1500

2007
2008
2009

2010 28,000

500
2060 18,000
0
2007~2009
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90100+

14
2009 8 6 2.2
1000

()
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500

2007
0

2008

10 20 30 40 50 60 70

2007 -6,626
2008 -1,951
2009 -6,212

2010 -6,500
2020 -6,000
2009
2007~2009

80 90100+

2007 -409
2008
982
2009 -6,622

2010 -7,500
2020 -7,000
2007~2009

()
300
200
100
0
-100
-200
-300
-400
-500

2007
0

10

20

30

2008
40

50

60

2009
70

80

90100+

15


2010 0.1 2020 0

2010 2.1
2060 1.1
40

36

30

20

21

10

11

-1
-1

-10
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
16

2025 2022 2018

23.57 23.45 23.35

12.0

-12.0
1990

23.35 (2022 )

-8.0

23

22

23.45

8.0

4.0

() 0.0
-4.0

24

23.57 (2025 )

(2018 )

21
20 19.90
()

19 18.84
18

()

17 17.19

16

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

()

2050

15
2060

17

 ( )
2017

18

20

18.0
16.6

16

14
12

7.6
6.5

(
)

10

2017

4 5.2

5.7

2
0
1990

2000

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

2060
18


6 12 18
10 19% 29% 23% 20
24% 36% 43%

6 ( ) 12 ( ) 18 ( )

2010

21.9

21.9

21.9

26.7

26.7

26.7

31.9

31.9

31.9

2020

18.6

17.6

17.1

18.9

18.9

18.9

24.6

24.6

24.6

2030

17.7

16.6

14.3

17.9

17.1

15.9

19.1

18.3

17.7

2060

15.2

11.8

6.9

15.3

12.2

7.6

15.4

12.7

8.6

19


0-5 6-21
2010 5.1% 20.3% 2060 3.7% 10.5%
10 6-11 12-17 1821 29% 33% 15%
0-5 (
)

2010 118.6
2020 107.8
2030 106.5
2060 90.0
2010
2020
2030
2060

5.1
4.6
4.5
4.5

118.2
102.7
97.7
68.9
5.1
4.4
4.2
3.7

6-21 ( )

6-11 12-17 18-21

117.9 470.1 470.1 470.1 153.9 188.4 127.8

96.1 347.9 344.1 341.5 109.8 125.5 108.8
80.3 292.2 279.4 261.9 100.9 104.6
73.8
38.4 245.4 198.1 126.9
71.9
74.3
51.9
(%)
5.1
20.3 20.3 20.3
6.6
8.1
5.5
4.1
14.8 14.7 14.6
4.7
5.4
4.6
3.5
12.4 12.0 11.4
4.3
4.5
3.2
2.2
12.3 10.5
7.4
3.8
3.9
2.8
20

( )

15-64 2010 73.6%

2015 74.4% 2060 48.9%
2010
25-34 23.0% 2060 55-64 28.2%

( )

2010
2,316.5
1,704.6
2020
2,343.7
1,689.8
2030
2,330.1
1,511.5
2060
1,883.8
921.9
15-64

(%)

2010
73.6
100.0
2020
72.1
100.0
2030
64.9
100.0
2060
48.9
100.0

15-64 ( )
15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64
319.6
391.7
365.0
368.3
265.3
327.3
391.6
355.1
186.9
273.4
328.7
382.3
130.8
161.7
176.8
192.4
15-64 (%)
18.8
15.7
12.4
14.2

23.0
19.4
18.1
17.5

21.4
23.2
21.7
19.2

21.6
21.0
25.3
20.9

259.9
350.5
340.3
260.2

15.2
20.7
22.5
28.2
21

( )

65
2010 10.7% 2060 41.6%
80 2010 60.6
2060 344.9 24.4% 44.0%

( )

2010
2,316.5
2020
2,343.7
2030
2,330.1
2060
1,883.8
65
(%)

2010
10.7
2020
16.3
2030
24.4
2060
41.6

65 ( )

65-79
80
248.6
188.0
60.6
381.3
291.8
89.5
568.3
438.1
130.2
784.3
439.4
344.9
65 (%)
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

75.6
76.5
77.1
56.0

24.4
23.5
22.9
44.0

22

 ( )
15-49 2010 54.4%
2060 28.5%
2010 30-34 15.8%
2060 40 45-49
17.2%

( )

2010
2,316.5
2020
2,343.7
2030
2,330.1
2040
1,883.8
2060
2,316.5

(%)
2010
54.4
2020
48.8
2030
40.9
2040
34.4
2060
28.5

15-49 ( )
15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49
627.2
580.0
491.8
405.1
285.1

77.1 76.7 93.6 101.6 90.1 92.9

55.3 72.1 80.6
82.7 97.4 102.4
42.9 47.0 58.8
78.0 84.5 83.8
39.9 41.1 46.1
52.5 62.4 79.0
30.2 32.6 38.2
43.1 45.3 46.6
15-49 (%)

95.2
89.4
96.8
84.1
49.0

100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0
100.0

12.3
9.5
8.7
9.9
10.6

15.2
15.4
19.7
20.8
17.2

12.2
12.4
9.5
10.1
11.4

14.9
13.9
11.9
11.4
13.4

16.2
14.3
15.9
13.0
15.1

14.4
16.8
17.2
15.4
15.9

14.8
17.7
17.0
19.5
16.4

23

 ( )
65 2010 11% 2017
14% 2025 20%
2060 65 42%

25
20

15

7%

11%

14%

20%
65
42%

68%

10

73%

74%

69%
15-64

5
25%

16%

0
1993

2010

ageing

12%
2017

11%
2025

aged

14

super-aged

49%
9%
2060
24

 ( )

2010 36
2012 2015 34 2060
104
1990 50%

2027
110

104%

100

90

80
70
60

85%

50%

50
% 40
30
20
10
0

49%
36%

41%
9%
1980

1990

33%

21%
15%

16%

2010

2027 2034

19%

2050 2060

25

 2010 2060 (

)
2010
2060

2060

2010

250

150

100
90
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
50 50

150

250
26

27