Chapter 04 - Probability

CHAPTER 4Probability
4.1

ExperimentAny process of observation that has an uncertain outcome.

EventA set of sample space outcomes.
ProbabilityThe probability of an event is the sum of the probabilities of the sample space
outcomes.
Sample SpaceThe set of all possible experimental outcomes.

4.2
4.3

The probability of an outcome must be between 0 and 1. The probabilities of all the
experimental outcomes must sum to 1.

a.

b.

(1) AA
(2) AA, BB, CC
(3) AB, AC, BA, BC, CA, CB
(4) AA, AB, AC, BA, CA
(5) AA, AB, BA, BB

c.

Each outcome has probability

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)
(5)

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Chapter 04 - Probability

4.4

a.

4.5

b.

(1) BBB, GGG

(2) BGG, GBG, GGB
(3) GBB, BGB, BBG
(4) BBB

c.

Each outcome has probability

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

a.

Sample space outcomes:

PPPP, PPPN, PPNP, PPNN, PNPP, PNPN, PNNP, PNNN, NPPP, NPPN, NPNP,
NPNN, NNPP, NNPN, NNNP, NNNN

b.

(1) PPPN, PPNP, PNPP, NPPP

(2) PPNN, PNPN, PNNP, PNNN, NPPN, NPNP, NPNN, NNPP, NNPN, NNNP, NNNN
(3) All outcomes except NNNN
(4) PPPP, NNNN

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Chapter 04 - Probability

c.

4.6

Each outcome has probability

(1)
(2)
(3)
(4)

a.
b.
c.
d.

386,500

8,300,000
=.046566265

(.046566265)(5528) = 257

e.

505,100

=.060855422

8,300,000
(.060855422)(5528) =336

4.7

The sum of the probabilities of the individual outcomes sum to 1.

P(E) = 1 (.2 + .15 + .3 + .2) = .15

4.8 Events are mutually exclusive if they have no sample space outcomes in common. The two
events cannot occur simultaneously.
4.9 Complement of A: Event A does not occur
A U B: the union of events A and B (A or B)
A

B: the intersection of events A and B (A and B)

B: Event A does not occur and Event B does not occur

4-3

Chapter 04 - Probability

4.10

4.11

a.

R = all diamonds and hearts

B = all clubs and spades
A = there are 4 aces, one of each suit
N = there are 4 nines, one of each suit
D = all diamonds, 13 cards
C = all clubs, 13 cards

b.

(1) R and A are not mutually exclusive because there is an ace of diamonds and an ace of
hearts.
(2) R and C are mutually exclusive because clubs are black.
(3) A and N are mutually exclusive because there are no aces that are also nines.
(4) N and C are not mutually exclusive because there is a nine of clubs.
(5) D and C are mutually exclusive because there are no diamonds that are also clubs.

a.

(1)
(2)
(3)

b.

M
V

Total
c.

4.12

1,000

3,000

Total
4,000

1,500

4,500

6,000

2,500

7,500

10,000

(1)
(2)
(3)

There are 24 total cards.

a.
b.
c.
d.

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Chapter 04 - Probability

e.
4.13

Yes, no; A jack and an ace cannot occur in a single draw, where a jack and a spade can
occur simultaneously.

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

4.14

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

4.15

a.
b.
c.
d.

4.16

See page 187; explanations will vary.

4.17

Events are independent if the outcome of one does not affect the outcome of the other.

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Chapter 04 - Probability

4.18

a.
b.
c.

4.19

Yes, P(M | V) = P(M)

a.
b.
c.

Dependent. For two events to be independent, P(Aero | Low) = P(Aero)

P(Aero | Low) = 2/7 but the P(Aero) = 3/8. They are not equal.
4.20

4.21

a.

P(John Jane) = P(Jane)P(John|Jane) = (.5)(.7) = .35

b.

P(Jane | John ) =

c.

No

P (John Jane) .35

=
= .875
P (John )
.4

P (John | Jane) P( John )

.55, P(John) + P(Jane) P(John Jane) = .4 + .5 .35 = .55

4.22

P(V-chip) = .40, P(U | V-chip) = .17

a. P(V U ) = P(V ) P (U | V )
= (.40)(.17) = .068
b. .50 much higher than .068.

4.23

P(Aware) = .47, P(Prog/Aware) = .36

In order to program, the parent must be aware their set has a V-chip.
P(Pr og Aware) = P ( Aware) P(Pr og | Aware) = (.47)(.36) = .1692

4.24

4.25

a.

P ( Manager MBA) = P ( Manager ) P ( MBA | Manager ) = (.15)(.6) = .09

b.

P( Manager | MBA) =

c.

No,

P ( Manager MBA .09

=
= .36
P ( MBA)
.25

P(Manager | MBA) P(Manager)

P(MBA Manager) = P(MBA) + P(Manager) P(MBA Manager)

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Chapter 04 - Probability

= .25 + .15 .09 = .31

4.26

a.
.820 .793 = .027 difference
b.

48 + 36
= .832
101
66 + 36
P ( 4 or 5 age 25 34) =
= .829
123
37 + 19
P ( 4 or 5 age 35 49) =
= .737
76
P ( 4 or 5 age 21 24) =

Most appealing: age 2124

Least appealing: age 3549
4.27

4.28

4.29

a.
Fraud

Fire
16

Fire
24

Total
40

Fraud

24

36

60

Total

40

60

100

16
= .4
40

b.

P ( Fraud Fire) =

c.

Yes; P ( Fraud Fire) =

a.

P(AA) = (.8)(.8) = .64

P(AB) = (.8)(.1) = .08
P(AC) = (.8)(.1) = .08
P(BA) = (.1)(.8) = .08
P(BB) = (.1)(.1) = .01
P(BC) = (.1)(.1) = .01
P(CA) = (.1)(.8) = .08
P(CB) = (.1)(.1) = .01
P(CC) = (.1)(.1) = .01

b.

P(BB) + P(BC) + P(CB) + P(CC) = 4(.01) = .04

c.

Probably not valid since the probability in part b is small.

a.

P(D1 D2) = P(D1)P(D2) = (.95)(.92) = .874

b.

P(D1 D2) = P(D1) + P(D2) P(D1 D2) = .95 + .92 + .874 = .996

c.

1 P(D1 D2) = 1 .996 = .004

16
= .4 = P(Fraud)
40

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Chapter 04 - Probability

4.30

a.

(.9973) 50 =.874

b.

x 50 = .9973
x = (.9973).02 =.999946

4.31

a.

P ( KPWR 3 7 PM ) =.10

b.

P ( KLAX 3 7 PM ) =.059
P ( KROQ 3 7 PM ) =.068
P ( KIIS 3 7 PM ) =.049
P ( KFI 3 7 PM ) =.037

4.32

c.

(.1)(.256) = .0256

d.

KLAX: (.059)(.256) = .0151

KROQ: (.068)(.256) = .0174
KIIS: (.049)(.256) = .0125
KFI: (.037)(.256) = .0095

e.

.0256 + .0151 + .0174 + .0125 + .0095 = .0801

a.

P([5]) = .18
P([4]) = .27
P([31) = .28
P([2]) = .08
P([1]) = .10

b.

(1) P(familiar) = .18 + .27 + .28 + .08 + .10 = .91

(2) P(Tired) = (.00)(.18) + (.04)(.27) + + (.70)(.10) = .1708 or 17.08%

c.

P (T [5] =.00

P (T [4] =.04
P (T [3] =.25

P (T [2] =.25
P (T [1] =.70

4.33

a.

P ( none saw cut ) = (.9) 22 (.5) 1 (.6) 1 =.0295

b.

1 P(none saw cut) = 1 .0295 = .9705

c.

Probably not

d.

Explanations will vary.

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Chapter 04 - Probability

First Stock

Second Stock

4.34

U
D

R
R
U

U
D

R
U
D
4.35

Both stocks rise: P(A rises)*P(B rises) = (1/3)(1/3) = 1/9

Both stocks decline: P(A decline)*P(B decline) = (1/3)(1/3) = 1/9
Exactly one declines:
P(A+ B) + P(A unchanged B) + P(A B+) + P(A B unchanged) =
1/9 + 1/9 + 1/9 + 1/9 = 4/9

4.36

Both stocks rise: P(A rises)*P(B rises) = (.6)(.6) = .36

Both stocks decline: P(A decline)*P(B decline) = (.3)(.3) = .09
Exactly one declines:
P(A+ B) + P(A unchanged B) + P(A B+) + P(A B unchanged) =
[(.6)(.3) + (.1)(.3) + (.3)(.6) + (.3)(.1)] = .42

4.37

Given the table to the right, the probability that:

Both decline: (.4)(.1) = .04
Exactly one rises: .04 + .04 +.16 + .32 = .56
Exactly one unchanged: .04 + .16 + .02 + .04 = .26
Both rise: .32

P(A+)P(B+) = (.4)(.8) = .32

P(A+)P(Bu) = (.4)(.1) = .04
P(A+)P(B-) = (.4)(.1) = .04
P(Au)P(B+) = (.2)(.8) = .16
P(Au)P(Bu) = (.2)(.1) = .02
P(Au)P(B-) = (.2)(.1) = .02
P(A-)P(B+) = (.4)(.8) = .32
P(A-)P(Bu) = (.4)(.1) = .04
P(A-)P(B-) = (.4)(.1) = .04
Total = 1.00

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Chapter 04 - Probability

4.38

P{CLF | HSD} = (2050 + 334)/3265 = 2384/3265 = 0.7302

4.39

P{CLF | BD} = (921 + 55)/1081 = 976/1081 = 0.9029

4.40

P{EMP | (CLF and HSD)} = 2050/(2050 + 334) = 2050/2384 = 0.8599

4.41

P{EMP | (CLF and BD)} = 921/(921 + 55) = 921/976 = 0.9436

4.42

For Males:
P{CLF | HSD} = (3110 + 429)/3977 = 3539/3977 = 0.8899
P{CLF | BD} = (708 + 37)/783 = 745/783 = 0.9515
P{EMP | (CLF and HSD)} = 3110/(3110 + 429) = 0.8788
P{EMP | (CLF and BDM)} = 708/(708 + 37) = 708/745 = 0.9503
For both males and females, the probability of being in the civilian labor force is different for
high school degree versus bachelors degree or more. (0.7302 vs 0.9029 and 0.8899 vs 0.9515)
For both males and females, the probability of being employed when you are in the civilian
labor force is different for high school degree versus bachelors degree or more. (0.8599 vs
0.9436 and 0.8788 vs 0.9503)

4.43

P(violence increased) = 721/1000 = .721

4.44

P(quality declined) = 454/1000 = .454

4.45

P(violence increased quality declined) = 362/1000 = .362

4.46

P(violence increased quality declined) = .721 + .454 .362 = .813

4.47

P(quality declined | violence increased) = .362 /.721 = .502

4.48

P(violence increased | quality declined) = .362 / .454 = .797

4.49

Slight dependence: P(violence increased ) = .721 vs. P(violence increased | quality declined) =
.797 They are close but not equal.

4.50

a.

P(purchased | recalled seeing ad) = .13 / .41 = .317

b.

Yes, since the P(purchased) is less than the P(purchased | recalled seeing ad). The ad did
work. If the ad had been ineffective, these two probabilities would have been equal.

a.
b.
c.
d.
e.

P(bonus) = 83 / 400 = .2075

P(attended meeting) = 100 / 400 = .25
P(attended meeting bonus) = 42 / 400 = .105
P(bonus | attended meeting) = 42 / 100 = .42
Yes. Probabilities are not equal; they are not independent events.

4.51

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Chapter 04 - Probability

4.52

P([5]|T) = P([5])P(T|[5]) / P(T) = (.18)(.00) / (.17) = 0

P([4]|T) = P([4])P(T|[4]) / P(T) = (.27)(.04) / (.17) = .0635
P([3]|T) = P([3])P(T|[3]) / P(T) = (.28)(.25) / (.17) = .4118
P([2]|T) = P([2])P(T|[2]) / P(T) = (.08)(.25) / (.17) = .1176
P([1]|T) = P([1])P(T|[1]) / P(T) = (.10)(.70) / (.17) = .4118

4.53

a.

P(NT|[5]) = 1 0 = 1
P(NT|[4]) = 1 .04 = .96
P(NT|[3]) = 1 .25 = .75
P(NT|[2]) = 1 .25 = .75

b.

P([5]|NT) = P([5])P(NT|[5]) / P(NT) = (.18)(1.0) / (.83) = .2169

P([4]|NT) = P([4])P(NT|[4]) / P(NT) = (.27)(.96) / (.83) = .3123
P([3]|NT) = P([3])P(NT|[3]) / P(NT) = (.28)(.75) / (.83) = .2530
P([2]|NT) = P([2])P(NT|[2]) / P(NT) = (.08)(.75) / (.83) = .0723
P([1]|NT) = P([1])P(NT|[1]) / P(NT) = (.10)(.30) / (.83) = .0361

c.

P(unfam NT) = P(unfam)P(NT|unfam) = (.09)(1.0) = .09

P(unfam | NT) = P(unfam)P(NT|unfam) / P(NT) = (.09)(1.0) / .83 = .1084
P( unfam NT) = P(unfam) + P(NT) P(unfam NT) = .09 + .83 .09 = .83

4.54

P([4]|fam) = P([4]) / P(fam) = .27 / .91 = .2967

P([3]|fam) = P([3]) / P(fam) = .28 / .91 = .3077
P([2]|fam) = P([2]) / P(fam) = .08 / .91 = .0879
P([1]|fam) = P([1]) / P(fam) = .10 / .91 = .1099

4.55

a.
b.
c.

P(A B) = 0
P(A)*P(B)>0
No, P(A|B) = 0 but P(A) > 0

4.56

a.

P(Alaska delayed) = 501 / 3775 = .1327

P(America West delayed) = 787 / 7225 = .1089
America West has a smaller percent of flights delayed.

b.

P(Alaska|LA) = .1109
P(America West| LA) = .1443
P(Alaska|Phoenix) = .0515
P(America West| LA) = .0790
P(Alaska|San Diego) = .0862
P(America West| LA) = .1451
P(Alaska|San Francisco) = .1686
P(America West| LA) = .2873
P(Alaska|Seattle) = .1421
P(America West| LA) = .2328
Alaska Airlines has a smaller percent of flights delayed at each airport.

c.

Explanations will vary, but answers should discuss the difference in the overall number
of flights for each airline and that America Wests hub is Phoenix, while Alaskan
Airlines hub is Seattle, where weather plays a more important factor.

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Chapter 04 - Probability

Internet Exercises
4.57

a.

If independent, then P(female | 18 24) = P(female).

P(female | 18 24) = .52
P(female) = .555
not independent

b.

If independent, then P(black | 25+) = P(25+)

P(black | 25+) = .096
P(black) = .103
not independent

4-12