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7.1 a 0, 1, 2,

b Yes, we can identify the first value (0), the second (1), and so on.

c It is finite, because the number of cars is finite.

d The variable is discrete because it is countable.

7.2 a any value between 0 and several hundred miles

b No, because we cannot identify the second value or any other value larger than 0.

c No, uncountable means infinite.

d The variable is continuous.

7.3 a The values in cents are 0 ,1 ,2,

b Yes, because we can identify the first ,second, etc.

c Yes, it is finite because students cannot earn an infinite amount of money.

d Technically, the variable is discrete.

7.4 a 0, 1, 2, , 100

b Yes.

c Yes, there are 101 values.

d The variable is discrete because it is countable.

7.5 a No the sum of probabilities is not equal to 1.

b Yes, because the probabilities lie between 0 and 1 and sum to 1.

c No, because the probabilities do not sum to 1.

7.6 P(x) = 1/6 for x = 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, and 6

7.7 a

x

0

1

2

3

4

5

b (i) P(X

P(x)

24,750/165,000 = .15

37,950/165,000 = .23

59,400/165,000 = .36

29,700/165,000 = .18

9,900/165,000 = .06

3,300/165,000 = .02

(ii) P(X > 2) = P(3) + P(4) + P(5) = .18 + .06 + .02 = .26

(iii) P(X

173

7.8 a P(2

P(X < 4) = P(0) + P(1) + P(2) + P(3) = .005 + .025 + .310 + .340 = .680

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P ( x ) = (03.066) 2 (.005) + (13.066) 2 (.025) + (23.066) 2 (.310)

b. b. E(X) =

c.

+ (73.066) 2 (.001) = 1.178

1.178 = 1.085

7.10 a P(X > 0) = P(2) + P(6) + P(8) = .3 + .4 + .1 = .8

b P(X

c P(X

d P(2

X 5) = P(2) = .3

7.11a P(3

7.13 a P(X < 2) = P(0) + P(1) = .05 + .43 = .48

b P(X > 1) = P(2) + P(3) = .31 + .21 = .52

7.14

174

a P(HH) = .25

b P(HT) = .25

c P(TH) = .25

d P(TT) = .25

7.15 a P(0 heads) = P(TT) = .25

b P(1 head) = P(HT) + P(TH) = .25 + .25 = .50

c P(2 heads) = P(HH) = .25

d P(at least 1 head) = P(1 head) + P(2 heads) = .50 + .25 = .75

7.16

175

7.17 a P(2 heads) = P(HHT) + P(HTH) + P(THH) = .125 + .125 + .125 = .375

b P(1 heads) = P(HTT) + P(THT) = P(TTH) = .125 + .125 + .125 = .375

c P(at least 1 head) = P(1 head) + P(2 heads) + P(3 heads) = .375 + .375 + .125 = .875

d P(at least 2 heads) = P(2 heads) + P(3 heads) = .375 + .125 = .500

7.18a. = E(X) =

2 = V(X) =

( x )

= 17.04

b.

10

25

35

40

P(y)

.59

.15

.25

.01

( y ) P( y) = (107.00) 2 (.59) + (257.00) 2 (.15) + (357.00) 2 (.25)

c. E(Y) =

V(Y) =

d. E(Y) = E(5X) = 5E(X) = 5(1.4) = 7.00

V(Y) = V(5X) = 5 2 V(X) = 25(17.04) = 426.00.

7.19a = E(X) =

2 = V(X) =

( x )

= 1.0

=

b.

1.0 = 1.0

11

P(y)

.4

.3

.2

.1

2 =V(Y) = ( y ) P( y) = (2 5) 2 (.4) + (5 5) 2 (.3) + (8 5) 2 (.2) + (11 5) 2 (.1) = 9.0

c. E(Y) =

9.0 = 3.0

9.0 = 3.0

176

7.20a. P(X

2) = P(2) + P(3) = .4 + .2 = .6

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P ( x ) = (01.7) 2 (.1) + (11.7) 2 (.3) + (21.7) 2 (.4) + (31.7) 2 (.2) = .81

b. = E(X) =

V(Profit) = V(3X) = 3 2 V(X) = 9(.81) = 7.29

7.22 a P(X > 4) = P(5) + P(6) + P(7) = .20 + .10 + .10 = .40

b P(X

2) = 1 P(X

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P ( x ) = (14.1) 2 (.05) + (24.1) 2 (.15) + (34.1) 2 (.15) + (44.1) 2 (.25)

7.23 = E(X) =

V(Y) = V(.25X) = (.25) 2 (2.69) = .168

7.25 a. x

.25

.50

.75

1.00

1.25

1.50

1.75

P(y)

.05

.15

.15

.25

.20

.10

.10

b. E(Y) =

= 1.025

V(Y) =

( y )

c. The answers are identical.

7.26 a P(4) = .06

b P(8) = 0

c P(0) = .35

d P(X

7.27 a P(X

b P(X = 60) = 0

177

d P(X > 100) = 0

7.28 a P(X = 3) = P(3) = .21

X 7) = P(5) + P(6) + P(7) = .12 + .08 + .06 = .26

b P(X

c P(5

7.29 a P(X > 1) = P(2) + P(3) + P(4) = .17 + .06 + .01 = .24

b P(X = 0) = .45

c P(1

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P ( x ) = (12.76) 2 (.04) + (22.76) 2 (.19) + (32.76) 2 (.28)

7.30 = E(X) =

2.302 = 1.517

V(Y) = V(10X) = 10 2 V(X) =100(2.302) = 230.2

230.2 = 15.17

xP( x ) = 1(.24) + 2(.18) + 3(.13) + 4(.10) + 5(.07) + 6(.04) + 7(.04) + 8(.20) = 3.86

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P( x ) = (13.86) 2 (.24) + (23.86) 2 (.18) + (33.86) 2 (.13) + (43.86) 2 (.10)

7.32 = E(X) =

6.78 = 2.60

V(Revenue) = V(2.50X) = 2.50 2 (V(X) = 6.25(6.78) = 42.38

42.38 = 6.51

7.34 E(Value of coin) = 400(.40) + 900(.30) + 100(.30) = 460. Take the $500.

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P ( x ) = (02.25) 2 (.10) + (12.25) 2 (.20) + (22.25) 2 (.25) + (32.25) 2 (.13)

7.35 = E(X) =

178

1.59 = 1.26

7.36 E(damage costs) = .01(400) + .02(200) + .10(100) + .87(0) = 18. The owner should pay up to $18 for the

device.

7.37 E(X) =

+ 10,000(1/50,000) + 1,000(1/10,000) = .1 + .2 + .1 + .2 + .1 = .7

Expected payoff = 70 cents.

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P( x ) = (14.0) 2 (.05) + (24.0) 2 (.12) + (34.0) 2 (.20) + (44.0) 2 (.30)

7.38 = E(X) =

V(Y) = V(.25X) = (.25) 2 V(X) =.0625(2.40) = .15

7.40 = E(X) =

7.42 Breakeven point = 15,000/(7.40 3.00) = 3,409

7.43 a

P(x)

.6

.4

P(y)

.6

.4

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P ( x ) = (11.4) 2 (.6) + (21.4) 2 (.4) = .24

c = E(X) =

d = 1.4, 2 = .24

179

7.44 a

all x

all y

COV(X, Y) =

x

2x

xyP( x, y)

all x

all y

.24 = .49, y

x y

2y

= .49

.24

COV( X, Y)

.14

=

= .58

xy

(.49)(.49)

V(X + Y) = V(X) + V(Y) + 2COV(X, Y) = .24 + .24 + 2(.14) = .76

7.46 a

x+y

P(x + y)

.5

.2

.3

b x y = E(X+Y) =

2x y = V(X+Y) =

[(x y)

xy

c Yes

7.47 a

P(x)

.4

.6

P(y)

.7

.3

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P( x ) = (11.6) 2 (.4) + (21.6) 2 (.6) = .24

d = E(Y) = yP( y) = 1(.7) + 2(.3) = 1.3

2 = V(Y) = ( y ) P( y) = (11.3) 2 (.7) + (21.3) 2 (.3) = .21

c = E(X) =

7.48 a

all x

all y

COV(X, Y) =

x

2x

xyP( x, y)

all x

all y

.24 = .49, y

2y

x y

.21

= 2.08 (1.6)(1.3) = 0

= .46

180

COV( X, Y)

0

=

=0

xy

(.49)(.46)

V(X + Y) = V(X) + V(Y) + 2COV(X, Y) = .24 + .21 + 2(0) = .45

7.50 a x + y

P(x + y)

.28

.54

.18

b x y = E(X+Y) =

2x y = V(X+Y) =

[(x y)

xy

c Yes

7.51 a x

P(x)

P(y)

.7

.6

.2

.4

.1

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P ( x ) = (11.4) 2 (.7) + (21.4) 2 (.2) + (31.4) 2 (.1) = .44

y = E(Y) = yP( y) = 1(.6) + 2(.4) = 1.4

2 = V(Y) = ( y ) P( y) = (11.4) 2 (.6) + (21.4) 2 (.4) = .24

xyP( x, y) = (1)(1)(.42) + (1)(2)(.28) + (2)(1)(.12) + (2)(2)(.08) + (3)(1)(.06) + (3)(2)(.04) = 1.96

b x = E(X) =

all x

all y

COV(X, Y) =

x

2x

xyP( x, y)

all x

all y

.44 = .66, y

x y

2y

.24

= 1.94 (1.4)(1.4) = 0

= .49

COV( X, Y)

0

=

=0

xy

(.66)(.49)

x+y

P(x + y)

.42

.40

.14

.04

181

7.52

x

y

.42

.21

.07

.18

.09

.03

7.53

7.54 a

.04

.16

.08

.32

.08

.32

Refrigerators, x

P(x)

.22

.49

.29

Stoves, y

P(y)

.34

.39

.27

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P( x ) = (01.07) 2 (.22) + (11.07) 2 (.49) + (21.07) 2 (.29) = .505

d y = E(Y) = yP( y) = 0(.34) + 1(.39) + 2(.27) = .93

2 = V(Y) = ( y ) P( y) = (0.93) 2 (.34) + (1.93) 2 (.39) + (2.93) 2 (.27) = .605

xyP( x , y)

e

= (0)(0)(.08) + (0)(1)(.09) + (0)(2)(.05) + (1)(0)(.14) + (1)(1)(.17)

c x = E(X) =

all x

all y

COV(X, Y) =

x

2x

xyP( x, y)

all x

all y

.505 = .711, y

x y

2y

.605

= .778

COV( X, Y)

.045

=

= .081

xy

(.711)(.778)

7.55 a

Bottles, x

P(x)

182

.72

.28

Cartons, y

P(y)

.81

.19

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P( x ) = (0.28) 2 (.72) + (1.28) 2 (.28) = .202

d y = E(Y) = yP( y) = 0(.81) + 1(.19) = .19

2 = V(Y) = ( y ) P( y) = (0.19) 2 (.81) + (1.19) 2 (.19) = .154

xyP( x , y)

e

= (0)(0)(.63) + (0)(1)(.09) + (1)(0)(.18) + (1)(1)(.10) = .100

c x = E(X) =

all x

all y

COV(X, Y) =

x

xyP( x, y)

all _ x all _ y

2x

.202 = .449, y

x y

2y

.154

= .392

COV( X, Y)

.0468

=

= .266

xy

(.449)(.392)

b P(Y = 0 | X = 1) = P(X =1 and Y = 0)/P(X = 1) = .14/.49 = .286

c P(X = 2 | Y = 2) = P(X =2 and Y = 2)/P(Y = 2) = .04/.27 = .148

X E(X ) = 18 + 12 + 27 + 8 = 65

V X V ( X ) = 8 + 5 + 6 + 2 = 21

7.57 E

X E(X ) = 35 + 20 + 20 + 50 + 20 = 145

V X V ( X ) = 8 + 5 + 4 + 12 + 2 = 31

7.58 E

31

= 5.57

X E(X ) = 8 + 14 + 5 + 3 + 30 + 30 + 10 = 100

V X V ( X ) = 2 + 5 + 1 + 1 + 8 +10 + 3 = 30

7.59 E

7.60 E

i

183

574

= 24.0

7.61 The expected value does not change. The standard deviation decreases.

7.62 E(Rp) = w1E(R1) + w2E(R2) = (.30)(.12) + (.70)(.25) = .2110

a. V(Rp) = w12 12 + w22 22 + 2 w1 w2 1 2

= (.30) 2 (.02) 2 (.70) 2 (.152 ) 2(.30)(.70)(.5)(.02)(.15) = .0117

Rp

.0117 = .1081

= (.30) 2 (.02) 2 (.70) 2 (.15 2 ) 2(.30)(.70)(.2)(.02)(.15) = .0113

Rp

.0113 = .1064

= (.30) 2 (.02) 2 (.70) 2 (.15 2 ) 2(.30)(.70)(0)(.02)(.15) = .0111

Rp

.0111 = .1052

7.63 a She should choose stock 2 because its expected value is higher.

b. She should choose stock 1 because its standard deviation is smaller.

7.64 E(Rp) = w1E(R1) + w2E(R2) = (.60)(.09) + (.40)(.13) = .1060

V(Rp) = w12 12 + w22 22 + 2 w1 w2 1 2

= (.60) 2 (.15) 2 (.40) 2 (.212 ) 2(.60)(.40)(.4)(.15)(.21) = .0212

Rp

.0212 = .1456

V(Rp) = w12 12 + w22 22 + 2 w1 w2 1 2

= (.30) 2 (.15) 2 (.70) 2 (.212 ) 2(.30)(.70)(.4)(.15)(.21) = .0289

Rp

.0289 = .1700

184

The statistics used in Exercises 7.66 to 7.78 were computed by Excel. The variances were taken from the variancecovariance matrix. As a result they are the population parameters. To convert to statistics multiply the variance of

the portfolio returns by n/(n1).

7.66 a

Stock

Mean

Variance

Coca-Cola

.00022

.00261

Genentech

.01658

.01533

General Electric

.00031

.00354

General Motors

.00234

.01117

McDonalds

.00791

.00549

Motorola

.00800

.01042

b

7.67The stocks with the largest mean returns are Genentech (mean = .01658) and Motorola (mean = .00800)

7.68 The stocks with the smallest variances are Coca-Cola (.00261) and General Electric (.00354).

185

7.69 The two-stock portfolio with the largest expected value is composed of Genentech and Motorola, the two

stocks with the highest means. Its expected value is .01229 and its standard deviation is .08576. The two-stock

portfolio with the smallest variance is composed of Coca-Cola and General Electric, the two stocks with both the

smallest variances and the smallest covariance. The expected value is .00005 and the standard deviation is .03981.

7.70

186

7.71

7.72

7.73a

Stock

Mean

Variance

Barrick Gold

.00845

.00586

.00317

.00254

Bank of Montreal

.01027

.00202

MDS Laboratories

.00319

.00688

Petro-Canada

.01553

.00472

Research in Motion

.03113

.03694

187

7.74 The stocks with the largest means are Petro-Canada (.01533) and Research in Motion (.03113).

7.75 The stocks with the smallest variances are Bell Canada Enterprises (.00254) and Bank of Montreal (.00202).

7.76 The two-stock portfolio with the largest expected value is composed of Petro-Canada and Research in Motion,

the two stocks with the highest means. Its expected value is .02323 and its standard deviation is .10462. The two-

188

stock portfolio with the smallest variance is composed of Bell Canada Enterprises and Bank of Montreal, the two

stocks with the smallest variances. The expect value is .00355 and the standard deviation is .03398.

7.77

7.78

189

7.79

7.80a

Stock

Mean

Variance

Amgen

.00358

.00557

.01510

.03427

Cisco Systems

.00412

.01701

Intel

.00313

.01575

Microsoft

.00994

.00752

Research in Motion

.03538

.03855

b. Stocks, Research in Motion, Microsoft, Cisco Systems, and Amgen have the largest means.

c. Stocks Amgen, Microsoft, Intel, and Cisco Systems have the smallest variances.

7.81

190

7.83

7.84 P(X = x) =

n!

p x (1 p ) n x

x! ( n x )!

a P(X = 3) =

10!

(.3) 3 (1 .3)10 3 = .2668

3! (10 3)!

b P(X = 5) =

10!

(.3) 5 (1 .3)10 5 = .1029

5! (10 5)!

c P(X = 8) =

10!

(.3) 8 (1 .3)10 8 = .0014

8!(10 8)!

b P(X = 5) = P(X

c P(X = 8) = P(X

3) P(X

5) P(X

8) P(X

7) = .9999 .9984 = .0015

7.86 a .26683

b .10292

c .00145

7.87 P(X = x) =

n!

p x (1 p ) n x

x! ( n x )!

191

a P(X = 2) =

6!

(.2) 2 (1 .2) 6 2 = .2458

2! (6 2)!

b P(X = 3) =

6!

(.2) 3 (1 .2) 6 3 = .0819

3! (6 3)!

c P(X = 5) =

6!

(.2) 5 (1 .2)5 = .0015

5! (6 5)!

b P(X = 3) = P(X

c P(X = 5) = P(X

2) P(X

3) P(X

5) P(X

4) = .9999 9984 = .0015

7.89 a .24576

b .08192

c .00154

7.90 a P(X = 18) = P(X 18) P(X 17) = .6593 .4882 = .1711

b P(X = 15) = P(X 15) P(X 14) =.1894 .0978 = .0916

c P(X 20) = .9095

d P(X 16) = 1 P(X 15) = 1 .1894 = .8106

7.91 a .17119

b .09164

c .90953

d .81056

7.92 Binomial distribution with p = .25

a P(X = 1) =

4!

(.25)1 (1 .25) 4 1 = .4219

1! ( 4 1)!

2) P(X

7.93 Table 1 with n = 25 and p = .3: P(X

10) = .9022

a P(X = 20) = P(X

20) P(X

192

c P(X

24) = .9282

7.95 Table 1 with n = 25 and p = .75: P(X

7.96 P(X = 0) =

4!

(.7) 0 (1 .7) 4 0 = .0081

01!( 4 0)!

0) = .0718

4) = .9020

3) = 1 P(X

a P(X = 0) = P(X

b P(X < 5) = P(X

c P(X > 2) = P(X

7.98 P(X = 0) =

2) = 1 .5371 = .4629

25!

(.08) 0 (1 .08) 25 0 = .1244

0! ( 25 0)!

7.99 Excel with n = 100 and p = .20: P(X > 25) = P(X

26) = 1 P(X

20!

(.75) 20 (1 .75) 20 20 = .00317

20! (20 20)!

7.102 a P(X = 2) =

5!

(.45) 2 (1 .45) 5 2 = .3369

2! (5 2)!

10) = 1 P(X

9) = 1 .24237 = .75763

10) = 1 P(X 9) = 1 .1148 = .8852

b: Table 1 with n = 25 and p = .5: P(X

7.104 a P(X = 2) =

5!

(.52) 2 (1 .52)5 2 = .2990

2!(5 2)!

10) = 1 P(X

9) = 1 .08033 = .91967

2) = 1 P(X

193

1) = 1 .61826 = .38174

c Excel with n = 25 and p = 18/38: P(X

d Excel with n = 25 and p = 18/38: P(X

15) = 1 P(X

30) = .12519

5) = .44069

7.108a. Excel with n = 10 and p = .23: P(X

7.110 a P(X = 0) =

9) = 1 .81032 = .18968

5) = 1 P(X

4) = 1 .94308 = .05692

5) = .47015

19) = 1 P(X

e 2 2 0

e x

=

= .1353

0!

x!

b P(X = 3) =

e 2 2 3

e x

=

= .1804

3!

x!

c P(X = 5) =

e 2 2 5

e x

=

= .0361

5!

x!

7.111a P(X = 0) =

10) = .29680

e x

e .5 .5 0

=

= .6065

x!

0!

b P(X = 1) =

e .5 .51

e x

=

= .3033

1!

x!

c P(X = 2) =

e .5 .5 2

e x

=

= .0758

2!

x!

b Table 2 with = 3.5: P(X

5) = 1 P(X

0) = .0302

4) = 1 .7254 = .2746

1) P(X

e 14 / 3 (14 / 3) 5

e x

7.113 a P(X = 5 with = 14/3) =

=

= .1734

5!

x!

194

e 1 / 3 (1 / 3) 1

e x

b. P(X = 1 with = 14/3) =

=

= .2388

1!

x!

e 2 ( 2 ) 0

e x

7.114 a P(X = 0 with = 2) =

=

= .1353

x!

0!

e 14 (14)10

e x

b P(X = 10 with = 14) =

=

= .0663

x!

10!

7.115 a Table 2 with = 5: P(X

b Table 2 with = 10: P(X

10) = 1 P(X

20) = 1 P(X

b Excel with = 15:P(X

9) = 1 .9682 = .0318

35) = 1 P(X

12 = .26761

b Table 2 with = 9: P(10

X 15) = P(X 15) P(X 9) = .9780 .5874 = .3906

e .4 (.4) 0

e x

7.118 P(X = 0 with = 80/200) =

=

=.6703

x!

0!

7.119 a Table 2 with = 5: P(X

b Excel with = 25: P(X

10) = 1 P(X

25) = 1 P(X

b Table 2 = 6: P(X < 4) = P(X

9) = 1 .9682= .0318

2) = 1 P(X

3) = .1512

1) = 1 .5578 = .4422

e x

e 5 (5)1 = .0337

7.121 a P(X = 1 with = 5) =

=

x!

1!

b Table 2 with = 15: P(X > 20) = P(X

21) = 1 P(X

e 1.5 (1.5) 0

e x

7.122 a P(X = 0 with = 1.5) =

=

= .2231

x!

0!

b Table 2 with = 4.5: P(X

c Table 2 with = 3.0: P(X

5) = .7029

3) = 1 P(X

2 = 1 .4232 = .5768

195

7.123 P(X = 5) =

5!

(.774) 5 (1 .774) 5 5 = .2778

5! (5 5)!

b P(X = 0) =

40!

(.02) 0 (1 .02) 40 0 = .4457

0! (40 0)!

7.125 a = E(X) =

2 = V(X) =

( x )

1.0876 = 1.0429

e 8 (8)10

e x

7.126 a P(X = 10 with = 8) =

=

= .0993

x!

10!

b Table 2 with = 8: P(X > 5) = P(X

c Table 2 with

6) = 1 P(X

= 8: P(X < 12) = P(X 11) = .8881

5) = 1 .1912 = .8088

b

np (1 p)

100(.15)(1 .15)

= 3.57

20) = 1 P(X

7.129 a = E(X) =

2 = V(X) =

6) = 1 P(X

5) = 1 .9527 = .0473

( x )

1.1971 = 1.0941

7.131 a P(X = 2) =

6) = 1 P(X

5) = 1 .9936 = .0064

10!

(.05) 2 (1 .05)10 2 = .0746

2!(10 2)!

c .05

196

66) = 1 P(X

b E(X) = np = 80(.70) = 56

c

np (1 p)

80(.70)(1 .70)

= 4.10

b. Excel with = 6: P(X 5) = .4457

c Excel with = 2.3: P(X 3) = 1 P(X 2) = 1 .5960 = .4040

7.134 Table 1 with n = 25 and p = .40:

b P(X < 5) = P(X 4) = .0095

c P(X > 15) = P(X 16) = 1 P(X 15) = 1 .9868 = .0132

a P(X = 10) = P(X

a P(X > 50) = P(X

b P(X < 44) = P(X

49) = 1 P(X

43) = .38277

7.136 a = E(X) =

2 = V(X) =

( x )

2.23 = 1.49

2 = V(X) = ( x ) P( x ) = (02.22) 2 (.15) + (12.22) 2 (.18) + (22.22) 2 (.23)

b = E(X) =

2.11 = 1.45

7.139 Excel with n = 100 and p = .60: P(X > 50) = P(X

197

x

p(x)

.95099

.04803

.00097

.00001

Case 7.1

Expected number of runs without bunting = .85.

If batter bunts:

Bases

Outcome

Probability

Occupied

Expected Number

Outs

of Runs

.75

2nd

.69

.5175

.10

1st

.52

.0520

.10

none

.10

.0100

.05

1.46

.0730

Decision: Dont bunt.

198

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