Period Demand 4 period MA Forecast Error Revised Forecast

1 120
2 127
3 114
4 122
5 125 120.75 -4.25 122
2 yr 3 yr
Period Demand Alpha Level Forcast Error
0 120.75
1 120 120.68 120.75 0.75
2 127 121.31 120.68 -6.33
0.1
3 114 120.58 121.31 7.31
4 122 120.72 120.58 -1.42
5 120.72
Period Demand Alpha Beta Level Trend
0 7367.13 673.34
1 8415 8077.93 680.83
2 8732 8756.09 680.30
3 9014 9394.15 671.85
0.1 0.2
4 9808 10040.20 666.69
5 10413 10677.50 660.81
6 11961 11400.58 673.27
7 10866.46 431.79

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9556648279
R Square 0.9132952633
Adjusted R Square 0.8916190791
Standard Error 433.95140171
Observations 6

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 7934335.557143 7934335.5571 42.133581047 0.00290483846
Residual 4 753255.2761905 188313.81905
Total 5 8687590.833333

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 7367.1333333 403.9867693889 18.236075762 5.318256E-05 6245.4862449
X Variable 1 673.34285714 103.7342260773 6.4910385184 0.0029048385 385.330472909
Forecast Error

8040.48 -374.52
8758.76 26.76
9436.38 422.38
10066.00 258.00
10706.89 293.89
11338.31 -622.69
12073.85

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.955665
R Square 0.913295
Adjusted R Squ 0.891619
Standard Error 433.9514
Observations 6

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 7934336 7934336 42.13358 0.002905
Residual 4 753255.3 188313.8
Upper 95% Total 5 8687591
8488.7804218
961.35524138 CoefficientStandard Et Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.
Intercept 7367.133 403.9868 18.23608 5.318E-05 6245.486 8488.78 6245.486
X Variable 1 673.3429 103.7342 6.491039 0.002905 385.3305 961.3552 385.3305
Upper 95.0%
8488.78
961.3552
Period Demand Deseasonalised Demand Revised DD Seasonal Factor Static SF
0
1 8000 18962.80 0.42 0.47
2 13000 19486.61 0.67 0.68
3 23000 19750 20010.42 1.15 1.17
4 34000 20625 20534.23 1.66 1.66
5 10000 21250 21058.04 0.47 0.47
6 18000 21750 21581.85 0.83 0.68
7 23000 22500 22105.65 1.04 1.17
8 38000 22125 22629.46 1.68 1.66
9 12000 22625 23153.27 0.52 0.47
10 13000 24125 23677.08 0.55 0.68
11 32000 24200.89 1.32 1.17
12 41000 24724.70 1.66 1.66

p=4,t=3

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R0.9580652
R Square 0.917889
Adjusted R0.9042038
Standard E414.50331
Observati 8

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 11523809.5238095 11523809.524 67.0718152291592 0.0001786
Residual 6 1030877.97619048 171812.99603
Total 7 12554687.5

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%

Intercept 18438.988 440.808707877538 41.829908905 1.2487616473E-08 17360.368
X Variable 523.80952 63.9592496813672 8.1897384103 0.00017860862471 367.30688
 Level Trend Adjusted SF Forecasted Demand Alpha Beta
18438.99 523.81
18762.58 483.77 0.47 8944.39
19223.95 479.29 0.68 13153.04
19697.54 478.15 1.17 23066.74
20200.87 483.18 1.66 33580.81
20756.29 497.63 0.47 9662.57
21765.16 599.88 0.68 14509.79 0.1 0.2
22093.67 545.61 1.17 26176.12
22655.87 548.92 1.67 37723.54
23445.06 596.98 0.47 10874.09
23502.65 489.10 0.70 16760.19
24357.23 562.20 1.16 27769.61
24886.43 555.60 1.67 41550.30

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.481327
R Square 0.231676
45000
Adjusted R 0.154843
40000
Standard E 10666.88
35000
Observatio 12
30000
25000
ANOVA
20000
df
15000
Regression 1
10000
ignificance F Residual 10
5000
Total 11
0
1 2 3 4
Coefficients
C
Intercept 12015.15
Upper 95% Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0% X Variable 1548.951
19517.608147 17360.3680438446 19517.608147
680.31216985 367.306877773846 680.31216985
 Gamma Error

944.39
153.04
66.74
-419.19
-337.43
0.1 -3490.21
3176.12
-276.46
-1125.91
3760.19
-4230.39
550.30

Chart Title
45000
40000
35000
30000
25000
20000
SS MS F Significance F
15000
3.43E+08 3.43E+08 3.01534 0.113127
10000
1.14E+09 1.14E+08
5000
1.48E+09
0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%
Upper 95.0%
Column A Column B
6565.013 1.830179 0.097147 -2612.609 26642.91 -2612.609 26642.91
892.0096 1.736474 0.113127 -438.5702 3536.472 -438.5702 3536.472
 Deseasonalised Seasonal Factor
Period Demand Revised DD Static SF Forecast Error
Demand (DD) (SF)
1 2000 6067.51 0.33 0.43 2588.45 588.45
2 3000 6137.75 0.49 0.47 2912.65 -87.35
3 3000 6208.00 0.48 0.46 2871.96 -128.04
4 3000 6278.24 0.48 0.40 2500.00 -500.00
5 4000 6348.49 0.63 0.62 3944.41 -55.59
6 6000 6418.74 0.93 0.83 5355.70 -644.30
7 7000 6541.67 6488.98 1.08 0.85 5534.34 -1465.66
8 6000 6625.00 6559.23 0.91 1.15 7550.68 1550.68
9 10000 6666.67 6629.47 1.51 1.73 11488.88 1488.88
10 12000 6750.00 6699.72 1.79 1.78 11912.62 -87.38
11 14000 6875.00 6769.96 2.07 2.12 14377.25 377.25
12 8000 7000.00 6840.21 1.17 1.09 7488.12 -511.88
13 3000 6916.67 6910.46 0.43 0.43 2948.06 -51.94
14 4000 6833.33 6980.70 0.57 0.47 3312.67 -687.33
15 3000 7000.00 7050.95 0.43 0.46 3261.93 261.93
16 5000 7083.33 7121.19 0.70 0.40 2835.66 -2164.34
17 5000 7166.67 7191.44 0.70 0.62 4468.15 -531.85
18 8000 7333.33 7261.68 1.10 0.83 6059.04 -1940.96
19 3000 7375.00 7331.93 0.41 0.85 6253.27 3253.27
20 8000 7375.00 7402.18 1.08 1.15 8521.04 521.04
21 12000 7500.00 7472.42 1.61 1.73 12949.71 949.71
22 12000 7500.00 7542.67 1.59 1.78 13411.45 1411.45
23 16000 7375.00 7612.91 2.10 2.12 16167.41 167.41
24 10000 7250.00 7683.16 1.30 1.09 8410.91 -1589.09
25 2000 7333.33 7753.41 0.26 0.43 3307.67 1307.67
26 5000 7583.33 7823.65 0.64 0.47 3712.68 -1287.32
27 5000 7791.67 7893.90 0.63 0.46 3651.90 -1348.10
28 3000 8041.67 7964.14 0.38 0.40 3171.32 171.32
29 4000 8250.00 8034.39 0.50 0.62 4991.89 991.89
30 6000 8250.00 8104.63 0.74 0.83 6762.38 762.38
31 7000 8291.67 8174.88 0.86 0.85 6972.21 -27.79
32 10000 8375.00 8245.13 1.21 1.15 9491.41 -508.59
33 15000 8291.67 8315.37 1.80 1.73 14410.54 -589.46
34 15000 8208.33 8385.62 1.79 1.78 14910.28 -89.72
35 18000 8208.33 8455.86 2.13 2.12 17957.57 -42.43
36 8000 8291.67 8526.11 0.94 1.09 9333.70 1333.70
37 5000 8458.33 8596.35 0.58 0.43 3667.28 -1332.72
38 4000 8750.00 8666.60 0.46 0.47 4112.70 112.70
39 4000 8958.33 8736.85 0.46 0.46 4041.86 41.86
40 2000 9041.67 8807.09 0.23 0.40 3506.99 1506.99
41 5000 9166.67 8877.34 0.56 0.62 5515.63 515.63
42 7000 9416.67 8947.58 0.78 0.83 7465.73 465.73
43 10000 9583.33 9017.83 1.11 0.85 7691.15 -2308.85
44 14000 9500.00 9088.08 1.54 1.15 10461.77 -3538.23
45 16000 9375.00 9158.32 1.75 1.73 15871.37 -128.63
46 16000 9333.33 9228.57 1.73 1.78 16409.11 409.11
 47 20000 9416.67 9298.81 2.15 2.12 19747.72 -252.28
48 12000 9458.33 9369.06 1.28 1.09 10256.50 -1743.50
49 5000 9333.33 9439.30 0.53 0.43 4026.89 -973.11
50 2000 9083.33 9509.55 0.21 0.47 4512.72 2512.72
51 3000 9083.33 9579.80 0.31 0.46 4431.83 1431.83
52 2000 9416.67 9650.04 0.21 0.40 3842.65 1842.65
53 7000 9666.67 9720.29 0.72 0.62 6039.37 -960.63
54 6000 9583.33 9790.53 0.61 0.83 8169.07 2169.07
55 8000 9860.78 0.81 0.85 8410.08 410.08
56 10000 9931.02 1.01 1.15 11432.14 1432.14
57 20000 10001.27 2.00 1.73 17332.20 -2667.80
58 20000 10071.52 1.99 1.78 17907.94 -2092.06
59 22000 10141.76 2.17 2.12 21537.88 -462.12
60 8000 10212.01 0.78 1.09 11179.29 3179.29
61 0.43 4386.50
62 0.47 4912.74
63 0.46 4821.80
64 0.40 4178.31
65 0.62 6563.10
66 0.83 8872.42
67 0.85 9129.02
68 1.15 12402.50
69 1.73 18793.03
70 1.78 19406.77
71 2.12 23328.04
72 1.09 12102.08

SUMMARY OUTPUT

Regression Statistics
Multiple R 0.9749256
R Square 0.95048
Adjusted R 0.9494034
Standard E226.90147
Observatio 48

ANOVA
df SS MS F Significance F
Regression 1 45456339.83037 45456339.83 882.9169171628 1.14E-31
Residual 46 2368276.778427 51484.27779
Total 47 47824616.6088

Coefficients Standard Error t Stat P-value Lower 95%Upper 95%Lower 95.0%

Intercept 5997.2605 79.19340747569 75.72928996 6.128498621E-50 5837.852 6156.6686 5837.8525
X Variable 70.245784 2.364070087044 29.7139179 1.14477844E-31 65.48716 75.004411 65.487158
Absolute Error
Bias MSE MAD %Error MAPE TS
(AE) Perio
588.45 588.45 346273.31 588.45 29% 29.42 1.00 25000
87.35 501.10 176951.90 337.90 3% 16.17 1.48
128.04 373.06 123432.64 267.95 4% 12.20 1.39 20000
500.00 -126.94 155074.92 325.96 17% 13.32 -0.39
15000
55.59 -182.53 124677.88 271.89 1% 10.93 -0.67
644.30 -826.83 173086.20 333.96 11% 10.90 -2.48 10000
1465.66 -2292.50 455240.47 495.63 21% 12.33 -4.63
1550.68 -741.82 698910.88 627.51 26% 14.02 -1.18 5000
1488.88 747.06 867559.83 723.22 15% 14.12 1.03
0
87.38 659.68 781567.30 659.63 1% 12.78 1.00 1 4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28
377.25 1036.94 723453.85 633.96 3% 11.86 1.64
511.88 525.05 685001.55 623.79 6% 11.41 0.84 Period Dema
51.94 473.11 632516.65 579.80 2% 10.66 0.82
687.33 -214.22 621081.76 587.48 17% 11.13 -0.36
261.93 47.70 584250.06 565.78 9% 10.97 0.08
2164.34 -2116.64 840507.16 665.69 43% 12.99 -3.18
531.85 -2648.48 807704.50 657.81 11% 12.85 -4.03
1940.96 -4589.44 972127.87 729.10 24% 13.48 -6.29 Underestimation
3253.27 -1336.17 1478005.04 861.95 108% 18.48 -1.55
521.04 -815.13 1417679.07 844.91 7% 17.88 -0.96
949.71 134.58 1393120.25 849.90 8% 17.41 0.16
1411.45 1546.04 1420351.26 875.42 12% 17.15 1.77
167.41 1713.44 1359815.37 844.64 1% 16.45 2.03
1589.09 124.35 1408373.53 875.66 16% 16.43 0.14
1307.67 1432.02 1420438.49 892.94 65% 18.39 1.60
1287.32 144.71 1429544.00 908.11 26% 18.67 0.16
1348.10 -1203.40 1443908.51 924.40 27% 18.98 -1.30
171.32 -1032.08 1393388.63 897.51 6% 18.50 -1.15
991.89 -40.19 1379266.46 900.76 25% 18.72 -0.04
762.38 722.20 1352665.24 896.15 13% 18.52 0.81
27.79 694.41 1309055.79 868.14 0% 17.94 0.80
508.59 185.82 1276231.13 856.90 5% 17.53 0.22
589.46 -403.64 1248086.69 848.80 4% 17.12 -0.48
89.72 -493.36 1211615.00 826.47 1% 16.64 -0.60
42.43 -535.79 1177048.87 804.07 0% 16.17 -0.67
1333.70 797.91 1193763.12 818.78 17% 16.18 0.97
1332.72 -534.81 1209503.24 832.67 27% 16.46 -0.64
112.70 -422.11 1178008.47 813.73 3% 16.10 -0.52
41.86 -380.25 1147848.06 793.93 1% 15.72 -0.48
1506.99 1126.74 1175927.05 811.76 75% 17.21 1.39
515.63 1642.37 1153730.58 804.54 10% 17.04 2.04
465.73 2108.09 1131425.16 796.47 7% 16.79 2.65
2308.85 -200.76 1229085.01 831.64 23% 16.94 -0.24
3538.23 -3738.99 1485675.36 893.16 25% 17.13 -4.19
128.63 -3867.62 1453028.03 876.17 1% 16.77 -4.41
409.11 -3458.50 1425079.04 866.01 3% 16.46 -3.99
 252.28 -3710.78 1396112.34 852.96 1% 16.13 -4.35
1743.50 -5454.28 1430355.96 871.51 15% 16.10 -6.26 Underestimation
973.11 -6427.40 1420490.49 873.58 19% 16.17 -7.36 Underestimation
2512.72 -3914.67 1518356.05 906.36 126% 18.36 -4.32
1431.83 -2482.84 1528783.15 916.67 48% 18.94 -2.71
1842.65 -640.20 1564678.77 934.48 92% 20.34 -0.69
960.63 -1600.83 1552568.21 934.97 14% 20.22 -1.71
2169.07 568.24 1610944.31 957.82 36% 20.51 0.59
410.08 978.33 1584712.04 947.86 5% 20.23 1.03
1432.14 2410.46 1593038.85 956.51 14% 20.13 2.52
2667.80 -257.34 1689953.09 986.53 13% 20.01 -0.26
2092.06 -2349.39 1736276.26 1005.59 10% 19.84 -2.34
462.12 -2811.51 1710467.44 996.38 2% 19.54 -2.82
3179.29 367.78 1850424.36 1032.77 40% 19.88 0.36

Lower 95.0% Upper 95.0%

6156.66858
75.0044108
 Periodic Demand

4 7 10 13 16 19 22 25 28 31 34 37 40 43 46 49 52 55 58

Period Demand Deseasonalised

Demand (DD)
 Moving Average Si
Week Demand 4 wk MA Error AE Bias MSE MAD %Error MAPE TS Week
1 108 0
2 116 1
3 118 2
4 124 3
5 96 116.50 20.50 20.5 20.50 420.25 20.50 21.35% 21.35 1.00 4
6 119 113.50 -5.50 5.5 15.00 225.25 13.00 4.62% 12.99 1.15 5
7 96 114.25 18.25 18.25 33.25 261.19 14.75 19.01% 15.00 2.25 6
8 102 108.75 6.75 6.75 40.00 207.28 12.75 6.62% 12.90 3.14 7
9 112 103.25 -8.75 8.75 31.25 181.14 11.95 7.81% 11.88 2.62 8
10 102 107.25 5.25 5.25 36.50 155.54 10.83 5.15% 10.76 3.37 9
11 92 103.00 11.00 11 47.50 150.61 10.86 11.96% 10.93 4.38 10
12 91 102.00 11.00 11 58.50 146.91 10.88 12.09% 11.08 5.38 11
13 99.25 12
14 99.25 13
15 99.25 14
16 99.25 15
16

MA
140 140
120 120
100 100
80 80
60 60
40 40
20 20
0 0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 1 2 3 4 5
Demand 4 wk MA
 Simple Exponential Smoothing
Demand Alpha Level Forecast Error AE Bias MSE MAD %Error MAPE TS
106.33
108 106.50 106.33 -1.67 1.67 -1.67 2.78 1.67 1.54% 1.54 -1.00
116 107.45 106.50 -9.50 9.50 -11.17 46.51 5.58 8.19% 4.87 -2.00
118 108.51 107.45 -10.55 10.55 -21.72 68.11 7.24 8.94% 6.22 -3.00
124 110.05 108.51 -15.50 15.50 -37.21 111.11 9.30 12.50% 7.79 -4.00
96 108.65 110.05 14.05 14.05 -23.16 128.39 10.25 14.64% 9.16 -2.26
119 109.68 108.65 -10.35 10.35 -33.51 124.85 10.27 8.70% 9.08 -3.26
96 108.32 109.68 13.68 13.68 -19.82 133.76 10.76 14.25% 9.82 -1.84
102 0.1 107.68 108.32 6.32 6.32 -13.51 122.03 10.20 6.19% 9.37 -1.32
112 108.12 107.68 -4.32 4.32 -17.82 110.54 9.55 3.85% 8.76 -1.87
102 107.50 108.12 6.12 6.12 -11.71 103.23 9.20 6.00% 8.48 -1.27
92 105.95 107.50 15.50 15.50 3.80 115.70 9.78 16.85% 9.24 0.39
91 104.46 105.95 14.95 14.95 18.75 124.69 10.21 16.43% 9.84 1.84
104.46 104.46
104.46 104.46
104.46 104.46
104.46 104.46

SES
140

120

100

80

60

40

20

0
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17

Demand Forecast