Building Resilience Workshop IV New Orleans, Louisiana

Implementing Social Change & Resilience Economics Uses of the COAST Approach to Catalyze Action:

Helping Communities and Stakeholders Decide on Economically Viable Sea Level and Storm Surge Adaptation Strategies with the COAST software tool
Jonathan T. Lockman, AICP Vice President of Environmental Planning March 8, 2013 1:30 PM

What is COAST?
COastal

Adaptation to Sea level rise Tool

In the Spring of 2012, Dr. Sam Merrill, Director of the New England EFC at the Muskie School, created Catalysis Adaptation Partners, to spread the use of the Coast Approach beyond Maine and New England.
Samuel Merrill, PhD President COAST developer

J.T. Lockman, AICP Vice President Environmental Planning

Peter Slovinsky Vice President Geological Sciences

Paul Kirshen, PhD Senior Technical Consultant Climate Science

Ellen Douglas, PE, PhD Senior Technical Consultant Engineering

Jack Kartez, PhD Senior Technical Consultant Citizen Engagement

http://www.catalysisadaptation.com

Why did we name the company Catalysis?

The word catalysis comes from chemistry. To catalyze means to create a reaction by bringing things together; we are experts in catalyzing local adaptation to sea level rise and storm surge, by bringing together innovative technology with tailored community engagement processes.

SOCIAL
Social + Political + Economic Factors = Force for Action

ACTION

POLITICAL

ECONOMIC

Some Project Sites, Completed or Underway

East Machias/Falmouth, Maine Old Orchard Beach, Maine Portland, Maine Hampton/Hampton Falls/Seabrook, New Hampshire Cambridge, Massachusetts Duxbury/Marshfield/Scituate, Massachusetts Groton/Mystic, Connecticut Kingston, New York Oxford, Maryland

Helping Communities Decide on Sea Level and Storm Surge Adaptation Strategies with the COAST software tool
COAST is flexible; it can provide cost-benefit analysis for many candidate adaptation actions to protect a diversity of vulnerable assets, staged over time. Different scenarios for sea level rise and storm surge can be inputted in to the model, after stakeholder engagement. Stakeholder engagement delivers social buy-in. Vulnerabilities to damage are mapped and quantified based on the scenarios. Costs of adaptation strategies are estimated. The software will generate prediction of cumulative expected damages avoided over time, with different strategies providing a cost benefit analysis.

There are only four adaptation options: 1) Do nothing (usually = remain in denial) 2) Fortify assets 3) Accommodate higher water levels 4) Relocate assets

There are only four options: 1) Do nothing (usually = remain in denial) 2) Fortify assets 3) Accommodate higher water levels 4) Relocate assets

COAST is a tool and approach to help evaluate costs and benefits of these options.

Steps in the COAST Process

1. Engage Stakeholders to Select Different Scenarios for Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge.

Scientists Get It But Everyday People Do Too

Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100

79

Sea Level Change (inches)

71
63 55 47 40

32
24 16 8 0

Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106, 2152721532.

Use Local Data Connect with Peoples Experiences

Steps in the COAST Process

2. Provide a Vulnerability Assessment with Cumulative Expected Damage Estimates Over Time for a No Action Scenario of Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge

Albany

Kingston

New York City

Example: Hudson River, Kingston, NY

Select an Asset to Model: Damage to Real Estate

You Need Accurate Elevation Data: LiDAR

To Predict Future Damage to Real Estate You Need a Tax Parcel Map with Assessed Values

Then you need a Depth-Damage Function

Depth-Damage Function for Single Family Residential Structures with Basement

Then you need to input predicted flood heights from the 10 year, 25 year, 50 year, 100 year, and 500 year storms, from your FEMA flood insurance study or whatever youve got

Projection of Sea Level Rise from 1990 to 2100

cm

Then you need to input the scenarios of sea level rise you believe will be added to the storm floods over time

Vermeer and Rahmstorf (2009) Global sea level linked to global temperature. PNAS 106, 2152721532.

COAST Model Results

The model will then tell you the amount of dollar damage predicted for a particular-sized storm in a particular year
And it will calculate the cumulative expected damage, summed up from all of the predicted storms from today until that particular year.

COAST Model for City of Kingston - Modeled Water Levels and Vulnerability Assessment

Results
Predicted COAST Elevation Model of of Flood Sea COAST Height Level Model from Rise Total FEMA Above Flood Flood MHHW Elevatio Insurance in 2013 n for Study, Selected Each 2007 by Scenario NAVD88 Kingston NAVD 88 (ft.)1 (in./ft)2 (ft.) 6.0 8.2 6.0 8.2 6.0 8.2 6.0 8.2 6.0 0 0 0 0 6.0 8.2 7.7 9.9 9.0 11.2 8.8 11.0 11.7 COAST Model COAST Model COAST Model Expected Expected Percent of Damage to the Damage to the COAST Model Cumulative Expected Value of Value of Cumulative Damage All Buildings & Waste Water Expected Damage to the Value of Improvements Treatment Plant to the Value of All Buildings & From Only All Buildings & Improvements This Single From Improvements From 2013 to Storm Incident This Single Storm From Scenario Year in the Incident in the All Storms, 2013 to Attributable to Scenario Year Scenario Year Scenario Year Sea Level Rise Only ($ Million) ($ Million) ($ Million)3 (Percent)3 12.0 21.7 18.8 24.7 22.0 29.5 21.9 27.5 29.7 8.7 16.8 14.4 18.8 16.8 22.2 16.8 20.6 22.2 n/a n/a 69.0 69.0 73.5 73.5 82.7 82.7 88.3 n/a n/a 26.8% 26.8% 31.7% 31.7% 28.6% 28.6% 34.8%

Storm Intensit Sea y Level (return Rise period Scenari in Year o years) 1 2013 No SLR 10 yr 2 2013 No SLR 100 yr 3 2060 Lo SLR 10 yr 4 2060 Lo SLR 100 yr 5 2060 Hi SLR 10 yr 6 2060 Hi SLR 100 yr 7 2100 Lo SLR 10 yr 8 2100 Lo SLR 100 yr 9 2100 Hi SLR 10 yr 10 2100 Hi SLR 100 yr
1Tidal 2Elevation

20 1.67 20 1.67 36 36 3 3

33 1.75 33 1.75 68 5.67

8.2

68 5.67

13.9

34.5

24.8

88.3

34.8%
Date Run: 03-03-2013

state is included in FEMA FIS predicted flood elevations for the 10 year and 100 year storms. of Mean Higher High Water (MHHW) in year 2013 is 3.0 feet (NAVD 88).

Lost Value of Buildings and/or Improvements to Land For Flooding Scenario #7, Flood Height: 8.8 ft. (NAVD 88) Year 2100, With Low Sea Level Rise and a 10-year Storm 10% Probability of Occurrence in Any Given Year Total Damage for this Event: Damage to Wastewater Treatment Plant: $21.9 Million $16.8 Million

Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise Lost Value Due to Sea Level Rise + Storm Surge

Cumulative Expected Damages by 21 With Low Sea Level Rise = $82.7 Million

A Close-up Look at the COAST Model Output

Scenario 6: Year 2060, 100-yr Storm, Hi SLR, Height = 14.2 ft (NAVD 88)

West Strand Street Rondout Landing Area, Kingston, NY COAST Output Relative Height of Blue Boxes Indicates Predicted Dollar Damages to Buildings and Improvements

JAF Partners Inc. @1 Broadway Height of Blue Box Indicates Predicted Damages to Buildings and Improvements Year 2060, Scenario 6:100-yr Year 2060, Storm, 100-yr Hi SLR, Storm, Height Hi SLR, = 14.2 Height ft NAVD = 14.2 88 ft NAVD 88

PrintKey Acreage ADDRESS_NU ADDRESS_NA PRIOR_PC NEW_PC OWNER_1 STREET CITY_STATE ZIP_CODE BOOK PAGE PR_TOTAL_A PR_LAND_AV ZONING NO_BEDS NO_BATHS bldgvalue RawDepth Depth Damage Extrusion

56.43-5-40 0.12392824 1 BROADWAY 482 482 JAF Partners Inc 30 Broadway Kingston NY 12401 01512 00355 1012000 169000 RT 0 0 843000 2.151024288 2.151024288 157897.134100422 16.78971341

JAF Partners Inc. @1 Broadway Height of Blue Box Indicates Predicted Damages to Buildings and Improvements

Year 2060, Scenario 6:100-yr Year 2060, Storm, 100-yr Hi SLR, Storm, Height Hi SLR, = 14.2 Height ft NAVD = 14.2 88 ft NAVD 88

PrintKey Acreage ADDRESS_NU ADDRESS_NA PRIOR_PC NEW_PC OWNER_1 STREET CITY_STATE ZIP_CODE BOOK PAGE PR_TOTAL_A PR_LAND_AV ZONING NO_BEDS NO_BATHS bldgvalue RawDepth Depth Damage Extrusion

56.43-5-40 0.12392824 1 BROADWAY 482 482 JAF Partners Inc 30 Broadway Kingston NY 12401 01512 00355 1012000 169000 RT 0 0 843000 2.151024288 2.151024288 157897.134100422 16.78971341

Depth: 2.2 feet JAF Partners Inc. @1 Broadway Height of Blue Box Indicates Predicted Damages to Buildings and Improvements

Year 2060, Scenario 6:100-yr Year 2060, Storm, 100-yr Hi SLR, Storm, Height Hi SLR, = 14.2 Height ft NAVD = 14.2 88 ft NAVD 88

PrintKey Acreage ADDRESS_NU ADDRESS_NA PRIOR_PC NEW_PC OWNER_1 STREET CITY_STATE ZIP_CODE BOOK PAGE PR_TOTAL_A PR_LAND_AV ZONING NO_BEDS NO_BATHS bldgvalue RawDepth Depth Damage Extrusion

56.43-5-40 0.12392824 1 BROADWAY 482 482 JAF Partners Inc 30 Broadway Kingston NY 12401 01512 00355 1012000 169000 RT 0 0 843000 2.151024288 2.151024288 157897.134100422 16.78971341

Damage: $158K

JAF Partners Inc. @1 Broadway Height of Blue Box Indicates Predicted Damages to Buildings and Improvements

Year 2060, Scenario 6:100-yr Year 2060, Storm, 100-yr Hi SLR, Storm, Height Hi SLR, = 14.2 Height ft NAVD = 14.2 88 ft NAVD 88

COAST Model Output Can Be Easily Used by the Community All output files are in Google Earth format, and can be easily distributed. Google Earth is available as a free download usable on a variety of operating systems. Friends can share the files and use them at home to show others. Users can fly through the community to any location and look up potential flood depths and damages.

Damage to Assets Other than Real Estate Can be Modeled:

Economic output
Public health impacts Displaced persons, vulnerable demographics

Natural resources values

Cultural resources values Community impacts

Infrastructure (transportation, energy, facilities,

telecommunications)

Next Steps in the COAST Process

3. Select Candidate Adaptation Actions to Protect from Sea Level Rise and Storm Surge, Staged Over Time, and Estimate the Costs of Each Action 4. Perform a Cost Benefit Analysis of Adaptation Strategies

Example: Groton/Mystic, Connecticut

Stamford, CT USACE

Scenarios

Max. Water Elev. (ft., NAVD88)

Engineering Options

Annual Construction Maintenance Costs Costs

Sea level rise, normal tides

A B C

3.2 4.0 5.5 6.5 5.4 7.4 7.0 8.9

No action up to minimal flood proofing and infrastructure elevation along river.

Insignificant

Insignificant

100-year storm event in 2010

Hurricane Barrier at Mystic River entrance.

$18 Million

$75,000

E 10-year storm in 2070, Hi SLR F

Hurricane Barrier at Mystic River entrance. ADDITIONAL FORTIFICATION and elevating the railroad, as well as increased diking to east. Hurricane Barrier at Mystic River entrance. $27-30 Million $100,000

G 100-year storm in 2070, Hi SLR H

8.6

10.5

FURTHER FORTIFICATION and elevating the railroad, as well as increased diking to east.

$35 Million

$120,000

Example: Hampton Beach, New Hampshire

Hampton Police/Fire Station

Example: Hampton Beach, New Hampshire

Selected Public Assets and Thresholds for Vulnerability
Asset 100 Yr. Flood Seabrook WW Treatment Plant 9.8 Hampton WW Treatment Plant 9.8 Hampton Police Station 8.2 Hampton Sewage Pump Station 6.6 High SLR now now now now Low SLR now now now now

Seabrook Middle/Elem. School Hampton High School NextEra Nuclear Power Plant

14.8 23.0 19.7

~2080 >2100 >2100

>2100 >2100 >2100

Last Step in the COAST Process

5. Start Doing Something! Implement the Strategies, and Move the Needle off of Zero.

Possible Adaptation Actions: Hard or Soft

Revetments Sea walls Jetties Dry Flood-proofing Increasing Freeboard Now Elevating Structures Tunnel Plugs Automatic Floodgates Levees

Geotextile tubes Dune Restoration Tidal Marsh

Restoration Wet Flood-proofing Zoning changes Requiring Increased Freeboard Over TimeElevating Structures Buyouts Rolling Easements

City of Long Beach, NY Declines Dunes: Lost Opportunity for a Soft Adaptation

Some social lessons learned using the COAST approach:

Credit: Robin Utrecht/AFP/Getty Images Flooding in the Netherlands

Some social lessons learned using the COAST approach:

Fear is a powerful motivator. Communities that have experienced flooding dont need

convincing that there is a problem. Citizens want cities, towns and states to get beyond vulnerability studies and to start putting adaptation strategies in place! As a general rule, local action is the level where we are working. Higher levels of government provide research and basic resources that we use (aerial photography, LiDAR, grants for studies), but States and the US Congress are not building free adaptations anymore.

Some social lessons learned using the COAST approach:

Debates over the causes of climate change can be avoided. In a

way the cause is immaterial, and will be researched over time at the national and international level. Sea level and surge adaptation is a local effort. Adaptation can and should proceed before there is consensus on the causes and mechanisms behind climate change. Analogy: If you were robbed, you wouldnt wait to get better locks and a burglar alarm, until someone could prove to you the root cause of the robbers criminality. Why is burglary increasing? Unemployment? Drug abuse? Lack of Opportunities for Youth? Lack of Mental Health Treatment? All of the above? Can we ignore burglaries until the causes are determined?

Some social lessons learned using the COAST approach:

Agenda 21 and Tea Party Activism can make life

difficult, but no one wants to drown in a flood. Ultimately People and Business Owners want their pocketbooks protected. Appropriations for expensive designs for adaptation strategies (for example, elevating waterfronts or relocating sewage treatment plants) will not happen until there is enough of a social/political/economic consensus on a particular direction to take.

jtlockman@catalysisadaptation.com 207-590-5031 http://www.catalysisadaptation.com